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Cycle

Euribor cycle analysisYou know fiat currencies that are not pegged to anything they say but is it really true… Isn't fiat tied to the people in dept, families with mortgages, isn't that what keeps it stable, right? If this is correct, doesn't that mean that in the big picture, the interest rate cycle is all that matters if you want to understand the economy. I believe so. But that's not all, I've noticed something funny. Do you want to see? Try calculating the dates between bottoms, the cycle length actually doubles each cycle, each cycle comes at the right time... how is that even possible? Can we now look to the future? Is everything written in the stars or in someone's book.. Or am I just crazy? Maybe both, but either way, I think the chart is trying to tell us that there's going to be an AI/robotics-driven super cycle that lasts until 2056, with everyone running cheap money. What do you think is the "cause" of the depression of 2056. Maybe the robots will go to strike and the AI ​​will turn hostile? But wait, what is cause and what is cause, or is there just a cycle that causes everything? Forget it... it's better not to think too much. Watch TV or go for a walk.
ICEEUR:I1!Long
by Lm424LRs8CNEAk
Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses. The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14). In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish. This is a simple representation of concept. Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.
SP:SPXEducation
by citsvar
Buying Silver at 22$ based on H.Marks Cycle theory.Risk and Time are in opposite sides of a coin. Meaning what is unknown equals risk. Markets are forward pricing mechanism, meaning when something is known - usually was already priced in (bought with risk). H.Marks theory was you should buy things in advance, when there was hypothetical most risk; in practice it would be the least risk (as shown in graph). As long as there were hedges and drivers? You cant measure future demand? Here key words were economic gravity and inflation trend (unknown). Once we saw inflation in mid-January -> we could start placing bets on silver (22$). //Highest profit comes from buying in advance (combining w/ 200dma cycle?). When something is "risk-free" or certain -> it has 50-50 chance of profit and loss in both directions?; when something is "small risk", certain has small returns. //this works as long as there is 1:5 potential.
TVC:SILVER
by citsvar
Using S5TH (spx stocks above 200dma) as an oscillator timing cycPretty cool feature. You can use the 9month moving average in S5TH (spx stocks above the 200dma) to time the market cycle. Figure out the upward momentum (with help of game theory and TNX cycle). In practice and theory peoples options should be predictable because everyone act in their self-interest, seeking safety (hypothetical riskfree) and potential. I use this as an oschilator (like RSI).. above 50% reading is bull market (because more than 50% stocks above it's 200dma). This thing points to bull market to at least like 2025 summer. Worth noting that business cycle and TNX patterns are key here.
INDEX:S5THLong
by citsvar
9
BTC ON THE WAY TO 56K WITH THIS TRENDThanks for reading this update. BTC seems to enter an important breakdown trend where we expect that BTC has a high chance of falling to 56K, this can also happen unexpectedly with free fall volume as we have seen also before. BTC IS IN OVERFLOW VOLUME TREND.. Remember. No way is going directly to trend, BTC will play all possible trends to go to the goal. The trend is your friend. 68133 is a key level and same time a breakdown level for new volume which will make the trend decrease below. The end low time frame can change with time up, and we will update it. Our data shows us that the possibility that BTC will break down is high. BTC has been since OCT 2023 in a cycle trend that can end at 54K or with time higher, since data change. Not only BTC but also the stock markets are in overflow volume, which could break down soon. THE ETF hype will end as the most hypes did end. The same as the stock market where ETF becomes a normal trend. We did follow more cycle trends also the starting cycle from 26K, and the last update from below 42K to ATH. click the update for more data The overflow volume can increase btc more, but when it's time a correction starts, this can become a high correction. we expect BTC has a high chance to return 56K, then the idea it's going to 100K. Never in history of BTC there was no correction after high volume. Manage in all time the risk, since there is nothing called only uptrend. This update is not trading advice.
Short
by SatochiTrader
14