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BTC ON THE WAY TO 56K WITH THIS TRENDThanks for reading this update. BTC seems to enter an important breakdown trend where we expect that BTC has a high chance of falling to 56K, this can also happen unexpectedly with free fall volume as we have seen also before. BTC IS IN OVERFLOW VOLUME TREND.. Remember. No way is going directly to trend, BTC will play all possible trends to go to the goal. The trend is your friend. 68133 is a key level and same time a breakdown level for new volume which will make the trend decrease below. The end low time frame can change with time up, and we will update it. Our data shows us that the possibility that BTC will break down is high. BTC has been since OCT 2023 in a cycle trend that can end at 54K or with time higher, since data change. Not only BTC but also the stock markets are in overflow volume, which could break down soon. THE ETF hype will end as the most hypes did end. The same as the stock market where ETF becomes a normal trend. We did follow more cycle trends also the starting cycle from 26K, and the last update from below 42K to ATH. click the update for more data The overflow volume can increase btc more, but when it's time a correction starts, this can become a high correction. we expect BTC has a high chance to return 56K, then the idea it's going to 100K. Never in history of BTC there was no correction after high volume. Manage in all time the risk, since there is nothing called only uptrend. This update is not trading advice.
Short
by SatochiTrader
14
May Market Outlook, Sectors Rotation, Relative Strength AnalysisSince February, the commodities asset class has surged ahead, overshadowing the S&P 500's faltering performance. This notable shift in market dynamics underscores the resilience and strength exhibited by commodities during this period. Of particular interest are the XLE and XLU sectors, which have emerged as frontrunners since early March. This transition coincided with the decline in momentum of previously dominant sectors like XLK and SMH (refer to Fig. 2). Notably, XLE and XLU, characterized as growth defensive sectors, have thrived amidst market downturns. Investing in commodities and energy/utility sectors during these phases could have yielded significant profits, with select energy stocks boasting returns exceeding 25%, while the S&P 500 experienced an approximate 10% decline. Looking ahead to May, it's anticipated that XLE and XLU will maintain their market leadership, albeit with a slight loss in momentum. However, investors are advised to remain vigilant as these sectors may soon witness a change in dynamics. It's crucial to employ stop limit orders to safeguard profits in such volatile conditions. Following the current trajectory, XLY, XLRE, and XLF are poised to emerge as significant players in the market cycle (refer to Fig. 3&4). However, it's important to note that these sectors are susceptible to rapid momentum shifts, particularly when XLK and XLC regain momentum. Looking towards June, indications suggest that XLK and XLC will likely regain prominence in the market. For buy-and-hold investors, this presents an opportune moment to consider purchasing assets during market dips. Considering these market dynamics, my top investment picks are (TSLA), (GOOG), (AAPL), (ORCL), and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). These companies demonstrate strong growth potential, especially when timed strategically to align with sector rotation leadership shifts.
AMEX:XLELong
by MESHANL
commodities high conviction entry in FebLooking back, commodities had a high conviction in february based on a longterm trend. Combining macd and BB break out. Markets have either risk-on sentiment or defensive. During risk-on phase people want to put money to work, there is too much money. During risk-off or defensive, people want money and safety. Assets become too expensive. Bitcoin rallies during risk-on phases. Oil or gold can be either risk-on and risk-off . Markets are fascinating. Faang can be a risk-on and risk-off, till everything becomes too expensive to have. Markets leave clues. and they move on cycles. It makes sense why commodities are risk-off . Small caps usually are risk-on (when economy does well, there are no global conflicts; ie the future is BRIGHT). More concerns move the weight to risk-off , ie markets are a weighing machine longterm. People tend to be stuck in one mood or another, and it's tough to adjust? markets can change gears quickly.
AMEX:DJP
by citsvar
BTC Analysis of Seasonal Trends in Financial MarketsThe first and simple indicator from Shark Trading is now publicly available, along with a lecture on the advantages of using the seasonal indicator. You can also find it on the Tradingview portal and support it with a like: Dear Traders! The seasonal indicator is a powerful analytical tool that helps you better understand the market and make more informed decisions. It not only provides visual representation of various seasonal changes but also helps identify patterns and trends that may go unnoticed in regular analysis. An important feature of this indicator is the ability to customize the color scheme and transparency for each season, as well as choosing between the southern or northern hemisphere. This allows you to tailor the indicator to your preferences and analytical needs. With the seasonal indicator, you'll be able to: 1. Gain a better understanding of the current market state: Displaying seasonal changes helps you better orient yourself in the current market position and identify potential trading opportunities. 2. Identify trends and cyclicality: Analyzing seasonal changes allows you to identify recurring patterns and cycles in the market, helping to forecast its future movement. 3. Optimize trading: Knowing seasonal trends enables you to optimize your trading strategy and make more reasoned decisions about entering and exiting trades. 4. Improve analytical skills: Working with the seasonal indicator helps you develop your analytical skills and improve your understanding of the market. We invite you to read a more detailed article about this indicator and try using it in practice. This tool can become an invaluable assistant in your trading and help you reach new heights in your trading career. Don't miss the opportunity to improve your results - study and apply the seasonal indicator today! ______________________________________________________ Hello, dear traders! In this trading idea, we will present an overview of the seasonal indicator. The seasonal indicator settings allow you to change the color and transparency of each season, as well as have the function of selecting the hemisphere - southern or northern. In addition, this indicator includes an additional trend indicator that displays the direction of price movement. In accordance with the color coding: - Winter is denoted by blue color. - Summer is represented by green color. - Autumn is denoted by orange color. - Spring is denoted by yellow color. All elements on the chart of a certain color will be attributed to the corresponding season. For example, trend lines or levels marked in blue will be associated with the winter season. ______________________________________________________ Winter Explanation of price movement in winter: 1. Number 1 and the blue line denote the maximum price of Bitcoin. Note that they always form at highs, which is consistent. 2. Number 2 and the blue line denote the minimum price specifically in the winter period. This is indeed the price minimum and the low point in the cycle. 3. Number 3 and the blue line denote a local maximum after which the price begins to rise towards line number 1, which acts as a global resistance. 4. Number 4 denotes the last winter cycle before breaking the global maximum. It should be noted that in 2017, the resistance was not broken immediately - first in the spring, and then at the beginning of 2018, the maximum was set and the asset's growth occurred in winter. Additionally, it is worth noting that numbers 1 form the maximum, numbers 2 form the minimum, and since the trend is descending, its line is marked in blue. ______________________________________________________ Summer Now let's consider the price behavior chart for the summer. To make the situation clearer, I've left a descending trend in blue on the graph. I reiterate, elements shown in green on the graph specifically pertain to the summer period. 1. Number 1 on the graph denotes the first summer period! The price during this period remains within a narrow range 90% of the time; however, it's worth noting that impulsive movements can occur at the beginning, middle, or end. Thus, 90% of the time, the price is in a low volatility zone, while the remaining percentage is in a high volatility zone. 2. Number 2 on the graph represents the second summer period, where a pattern is observed: the price tends to rise at the beginning of the summer period and fall towards the end. Therefore, I've marked this time with an arc, and there's a pattern to it. It's worth noting that during the period of the descending trend from 2014 to 2016, the situation after the downward trend differs from the situation in 2018 and 2023, when changes in the arrangement of this situation occur after the breakout of the descending trend based on wave analysis and the price of the asset itself. 3. Number 3 represents the third summer period! During this period, the price movement direction is upward and then downward, forming a correction in the upward trend. It should be noted that in this movement, all lows gradually rise, while highs renew all previous local highs of the asset price. This period exhibits increased volatility and impulsive movements, with the asset price mostly staying within a range of minimal volatility, with volatility not exceeding 1-2% on some stretches. 4. Under number 4, the fourth summer period is indicated, which has an overall upward direction. In this period, the movement is aggressively upward. Starting from the first month until the middle of summer, the price moves downward, forming a correction in the upward trend. Then, during the next month, the price moves aggressively upward, renewing price highs. Volatility in this period is anomalously high, resembling a hot July summer. Additionally, based on the price movement in the summer period, we can assume that fractals are evident here, which we can use to our advantage for profit. ______________________________________________________ Shark Trading - We invite you to read a more detailed article about this indicator and try using it in practice. This tool can become an invaluable assistant in your trading and help you reach new heights in your trading career. Don't miss the opportunity to improve your results - study and apply the seasonal indicator today!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SHARK1318
CORE SEEMS TO ENTER A NEW BUILDING TREND (CYCLE)Based on our study, CORE appears to be experiencing a significant upward trend, suggesting potential for further growth. CORE is showing interesting indicates data trends both technically and in terms of data analysis. we will follow its progress to see if it reaches the $1.11 mark soon. we will continue to monitor CORE for any new updates. The current cycle for this coin cycle began at $0.58 and it's already gaining traction. note that this update is not trading advice.
Long
by SatochiTrader
1
🔥 Bitcoin In The Biggest Bull-Run Since 2016? Let's Discuss!Bitcoin has been performing exceptionally well over the last months. This cycle is the first cycle where Bitcoin has made a new all-time high (ATH) before the halving, instead of after. The most likely cause for this are the massive ETF inflows which boosted the price to new highs. Historically, Bitcoin has always peaked in Q4 of the next year after the halving. In this case, it would mean that BTC will peak in Q4 of 2025. Seeing that we're already at 70k in Q1 of 2024, this could lead to some issues. There's a few possible outcomes and explanations that I want to share. 1: This cycle will be similar to 2016 and we will continue to go up in a relatively stable straight line until Q4 of 2025. Bitcoin could reach >300k because of the continued buying power from ETF's. 2: This cycle is outperforming the past cycles, which is not possible due to diminishing returns theory (bull and bear markets will be less extreme). Considering that we "should" top in Q4 of 2025, we will see a long period of sideways/bearish price action in order to get the white line under the blue and purple lines. Top will be in Q4 of 2025, but a lot lower. Think 150k. 3: Diminishing returns theory will hold, but we will top much earlier than Q4 2025. In another analysis that I recently made I discussed the fact that BTC on average tops 40 weeks after a new all-time high has been made. This would lead to a cycle top in Q4 of 2024. With Diminishing returns still in play I'd guess we can top somewhere between 100k-150k. It's going to be interesting to see which historically accurate theories will be broken this cycle, seeing that this is the first time that BTC made a new ATH before the halving. Best case scenario would be a long cycle with a price as high as possible. What is your view on a new ATH before the halving? Which scenario do you deem most likely? Share your thoughts.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
16
Bitcoin CyclesEach Bitcoin boom has ended in about 85% draw down in 2014 and in 2017. Right now the drawdown is at 75% for the 2021 cycle. If we see a similar drawdown of 85% it will be at around ~10000. My guess is that will not happen and that our current 75% draw down is what we will get this cycle but if we get a drawdown to the low teens I'll be backing up the money truck. Each Bitcoin ATH to cycle low has been 89 weeks and 52 weeks respectively. If this is the current cycle's low then that puts it at 61 weeks as marked on the chart, which is between 89 and 52. If the boom and bust cycles continue due to the halvings I'm betting this is the bottom. Each Bitcoin previous ATH to breaking that ATH is marked on the chart. They are 168 weeks and 154 weeks respectively. If we take the average of that we can expect this cycle to take 161 weeks to work out. This puts it around May of 2024 right around the current predicted halving date. RSI is slated for a breakout around the end of the year - we could see a mini cycle like we did in the summer of 2019 after this break. My current prediction is that this is the time to be aggressively dollar cost averaging. I will be buying each week until my powder is dry and if we complete an 85% drawdown I will be going all in.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by malacus
3
GOLD, big things are taking placeWelcome everyone, GOLD made a lot of weird moves in the past weeks and is still not showing a clear direction at all. Beside the strong bullish trend, there was a massive sell of from the ATH and we are close to an important decision. As you can see in orange the price tested the upper boundary of the consolidation range for the 4th time and got rejected, but it's back for another attempt. To make clear why this is important: The consolidation took years and the price range is massive, a break above 2080 would open a lot of new higher targets and a significant bull run should start from there. On the other hand a rejection and sell of below 1980 should send the price lower in a 2nd wave according to the elliot wave theory, which price targets would be 1920,1900 and even 18xx levels. I will keep this idea updated, so if you like to follow, welcome here :)
FX:XAUUSD
by Kyrean
BITCOIN, is the ETF approval a sell on the news event?Welcome back, some times it's nice to just browse through the charts and find interesting patterns. There is no guaranty that chart history repeats it self, but, there is a chance to. In this chart I'm observing a pullback to 20k-30k area for the bitcoin in case the ETF approval which everyone is waiting for within the start of 2024 will be a sell on the news event. First of all, I am absolutely bullish on BTC within the next years. But at this stage of trend I don't want to get in a long position anymore. There had been many chances earlier this year and the risk of profit taking is too high now. Also the fundamentals are already anticipated from the market for weeks now. What can you see on the chart? Most important are the orange lines, marking the bottoms of a cycle. With purple lines I marked the most significant price actions, just every 12,5% for the actual cycle and 25% for the past cycle. The price reacted similar in both cycles and IF history wants to repeat itself, we could see a very long correctional movement starting from around 48-50k back down to 20-30k. Obviously you can't make good trades on the weekly chart, so this is just for observation and it's important to find structures on lower time frames to confirm the move. Let me know what you think about Bitcoin. All opinions are respected here :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Kyrean
18
BTC This cycle might actually be different.Bitcoin this cycle looks completely different than any previous one. We have never in the past gone up so high before the halving. There is no saying what BTC will do if we brake ATH pre-halving. Also the price mostly is driven by retail and ETF's no institutional buys yet. Google searches for "BTC" "Bitcoin" "Crypto" is still almost at all time lows. When we try to chart, from now on DO NOT LOOK AT THE PAST CYCLES. It will mislead you. Also indicators will try to screw us soon, so focusing on using more advanced tools than basic RSI will be needed. One advice - Learn to you Bookmap to understand what and how to follow BTC on there.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Achilly
8