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Cycle

Logistic curve - explain everythingIn trading cryptocurrency practice, the questions arise such as: - how to predict how long the crisis or euphoria phase from the arrival of money will be? - when to expect the next collapse? - what to do between explicit margin calls? - what information to rely on and how to weed out irrelevant? Observing the market and its reaction to the news in the background, including the preparation of the collapse, you can notice that the news alternates: good - bad - good - bad - ... If the news does not carry the size of the apocalypse, they are usually grouped to enhance the impact. The spread of information in society or the growth of a population with certain information can be schematically represented by a logistic curve. At first, few people are interested in a certain instrument. Investors are afraid of buying it, and its price fluctuates around the origin. At this time, the elite, single-handedly possessing important information, begin to buy it, the price rises slightly. In the next step, the information is shared with a small group of insiders. Individual purchases develop into active buying. The price of the instrument starts growing rapidly. The crowd is perplexed and cannot understand what is the reason. At the third stage, news comes out and investors, fearing don't catch the last train out of town, buy this instrument. At the same time, the “elite” and “confidants” happily sell to them at the maximum price (with joy, because at this time the “elite” has new information that the "elite" took into account, a new logistic curve begins in another instrument or the same, but in reverse, sales begin). The third stage ends when the whole society knows about what's happening. They discuss it on public transport, everyone who could have already made a decision and bought it. There is no one else to sell. The most important thing is to determine at what stage the price of the asset is now, which you paid attention to, and about which you received some information. To buy some kind of cryptocurrency and remain a holder for the rest of your life is an unattractive prospect. If you buy a cryptocurrency, then either with the ability to receive superprofits, or with the possibility of project growth in the long term, or both. You should decide if there is a bet on the value growth. I will not show complex mathematical calculations, so as not to scare away the reader. Elliott waves can be recognized and applied. The main thing is not to get into the crowd at stage 3. In fact, if from every possible angle(financial newspapers, news sites, on TV) there is a discussion of an idea, it is no longer news, this crowds of investors are being misled, and this idea should not be used as a defining one for your actions (unless with a different direction, just the opposite). Best regards EXCAVO
BNC:BLXLong
by EXCAVO
20
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC AnalysisHey guys this is my second post, just wanted to share some ideas about the previous market cycle on the HTFs and how it feels quite similar to the one we are in. As can be seen the first red horizontal line shows the market being disrespected by the 21 Week EMA (candles can be seen closing above 21 but there isn't enough strength to flip the sentiment). That is until market breaks above the 21 and retests it (red arrow pointing at retest point) showing there is strength to allow a continuation and market is respecting the 21. Consolidation can be seen indicating a slight cool off of the market before making another run up. The first red flag that confirms that market sentiment has shifted is where the 21 is broken where a fake-out then occurs indicating market is being disrespected by the 21 Another important oscillator to watch is the RSI, you can see RSI made a double top pattern from where the consolidation period started to where the market top was reached indicating a reversal was imminent. So far the market has generally played out quite similarly to the last cycle, its just the macro scale seems different than previously What Im really eager to see is a consolidation zone retesting the 21 before another leg up (similar to the 1st highlighted white box). This would then be a good time to fill up some bags possibly These are just my thoughts and observations, who knows how the market will play out, but history always repeats itself, thats for sure. Thanks for reading peeps
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by TrippyA
SPX's study since 80s, SP X& 10Y relation Code is "Decoded"Since the 80s every time we get a spike in US10Y Bonds SPX got a correction with a minimum of 20% and maximum of 57 % the question is where & when. Therefore, looking back to all the data available on Tradingview since 80s to 2021 we have measure the spike's percentage of all > 20% and the distance from the Golden Crosses & Death Crosses and showed the crash percentage as results of that. Surprisingly the weekly Golden Cross are 50-50 chance not the normal with indicators so the results are shown not plotted for the weekly. As for the daily all the work is plotted on the chart for your reference. Feel free to print, share, redistribute and publish this study for the benefit of any one out there. How to read the table below, just follow the steps: 1. Fist percentage is the gain of US10Y from the last reasonable low. 2. Second percentage is the % of the actual crashes. 3. The distance between the Gold Cross & the peak of the crash it self. 4. G.C = Golden Cross. D.C Death Cross 244 % up So far- ???? so far 144% up -20%- 305D G.C 59 % up -20%-70D G.C 70% up -57%- 20D D.C 64 % up -50%- 363D G.C (-24% Down) -22% -357D D.C xxx. 18% up -20%-78D G.C 28% up -36%- 130D G.C 43% up- -27%- 53D G.C 3 G. Crosses Vs 4 D. Crosses "Irrelevant weekly" 6 G. Crosses Vs 2 D. Crosses " 75% G. Cross " ------------------------------------------------- The actual study is here " Just click the picture"
SP:SPX
by samitrading
Bearish Cycle in the MarketBearish Cycle in the Market 1) "market maker spread" is the maximum and minimum of the initial channel. This is usually 25-50 pips high. 2) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) A large impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs and then looking for stop runs from the reset channel. 5) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 6) Use the bigger picture (1 hr & 4 hr time frame) to identify levels for possible entries. At the lowest level (15min), take trades ONLY from the LOD / HOD. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume . C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
5
Bearish Cycle in the MarketBearish Cycle in the Market 1) "market maker spread" is the maximum and minimum of the initial channel. This is usually 25-50 pips high. 2) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) A large impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs and then looking for stop runs from the reset channel. 5) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 6) Use the bigger picture (1 hr & 4 hr time frame) to identify levels for possible entries. At the lowest level (15min), take trades ONLY from the LOD / HOD. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume. C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
5
FEDFUNDS - Will See Light Again!I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting! I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments! From a technical perspective, FEDFUNDS has been bearish for a while making lower lows and lower highs. For the momentum to be shifted from bearish to bullish, as mentioned in the title "see light again", FEDFUNDS has to break above the last swing high. (highlighted in gray as trigger) It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this one. ~Rich
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by TheSignalyst
35
Bitcoin Market Cycle Forecast for the Next Two Halving EventsThis is what I foresee in BTC/USD in terms of long-term market cycle trends between now, the next halving (currently projected to be on May 27, 2020), and the halving after that (currently projected to be between March 2024 and June 2024). The dotted lines mark past halving dates as well as the projected 2020 and 2024 halving dates. Bitcoin market cycles have corresponded to each halving. Since the advent of Bitcoin , all Bitcoin halving dates have been followed by bull markets, which are then followed by a bear market and accumulation periods. Given the current long-term trend of Bitcoin's lifetime market patterns, each bull market should be less extensive than the previous bull market. That being said, patterns can always be broken, and this cycle is no exception, regardless of its longevity. I do not hold any Bitcoin at the time of writing (June 5th, 2019). Do your own research.
BNC:BLXLong
by erict99
2