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What’s ahead for the dollar?As the year draws to a close, it's an opportune time to evaluate the potential trajectory of the dollar going forward. From a broader perspective, we anticipate a regime shift for the dollar in 2024, potentially marking significant turning points for the major dollar pairs. Notably, since the 1990s, each instance when real rates crossed the 1% threshold, the dollar experienced an average sustained fall of approximately 18% over around 340 days. The combination of aggressive hikes and lower inflation has now pushed real rates clearly above the 1% mark, but the dollar’s reaction thus far has been rather muted when considering the past 3 reactions. This observation aligns with our cyclical analysis of the dollar. Historically, the dollar index has demonstrated a recurring cycle of approximately 3.5 years, often bottoming out at the end of most cycles. Furthermore, the dollar index has recently dipped below the crucial 103 resistance level, a significant benchmark since the 1990s. In light of a potential weaker dollar in 2024, we're exploring various strategic positions. At present, the NZDUSD pair, in particular, stands out due to its compelling technical setup and policy divergence. Currently both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are testing their 3-year resistance levels. Given the current inflation and interest rate scenarios, we find the NZDUSD pair more appealing. New Zealand's inflation rate remains relatively high compared to the US, while their policy rates are almost identical. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its hawkish stance in the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, whereas the Federal Reserve has begun hinting at possible rate cuts in 2024. Such divergence in policy should favor the NZDUSD pair as rate differentials shift towards the NZD. Hence, considering the weaker outlook for the Dollar in 2024, combined with the technical setup in the NZDUSD's price action and the emerging policy divergence, we lean bullish on the NZDUSD. To express this view, we can go long the CME New Zealand Dollar Futures at the current price level of 0.6247, take profit at 0.6800 and stop at 0.6050. Each 0.00005-point move is 5 USD. With that, we wrap up our last piece for 2023. We wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:6N1!Long
by inspirante
Bitcoin New Bullish Cycle IncomingHey, its Dalin. When we look at stocks during the internet bubble crash of 2003 they appear to make the same structure as many cryptos today. Bitcoin is just one example of this. We see the same pattern with Uniswap and many others. We can utilize this cycle and position ourselves properly for the next wave. A new cycle could send it to un-imaginable prices. Lets make sure we take advantage of this opportunity! - Dalin Anderson
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by High_Altitude_Investing
1
BTC 2.0 PREDECTION From $0,10 TO NEW ATH $1.59 - 2023Thank you for taking the time to review our update. It's essential to emphasize that the following information is not intended as trading advice, The max supply same as BTC 21M and the TA trends will make this coin able to break . BTC 2.0 demonstrating significant changes in trading volume, representing a new cryptocurrency with inherent high-risk However, if BTC 2.0 manages to sustain a value of $0.08 or higher, there is the potential for upward momentum and a potential break on low time frame. We expect that BTC 2.0 is able to gain from the target $0,10 to $1.59 in 2023 Our low time frame with the first TARGET $0,20 and main update. #Nottradingadvice #For day traders take always profits when market increase
Long
by SatochiTrader
1
BTC - Comparing Previous Cycles ♠️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 📊 Monthly Chart: If history repeats itself, as seen in previous cycles, BTC is currently breaking out of the correction phase, and the impulse phase has already begun. 📊 Weekly Chart: Consistent with past cycles, it is evident that BTC tends to retest the red zone before preparing for a parabolic upward movement. Therefore, be prepared for a potential bearish correction before the bulls regain control in the medium term. This bullish scenario remains valid as long as the red zone (30,000) holds, signifying no weekly candle close below this zone. What are your thoughts? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
45
🔥 Bitcoin: The Best Next Cycle's Top Forecast 🎯Foreword In this analysis I want to make an attempt at forecasting both the date and the price range at which Bitcoin will top at in the coming bull-cycle. The forecast is 100% based on historical data and is based on math and not on feelings, so be prepared to see some numbers and formulas. This analysis is speculative in nature because we're forecasting the price of an asset around 2 years into the future. So take it with a grain of salt. Halvings The yellow dotted lines are past and future halving dates. For the last two halvings, Bitcoin has topped (green) between 74 - 78 weeks after the halving. The next halving is scheduled around 22 April 2024. Bottoms The red dotted lines are past bear-market bottoms. For the last two cycles Bitcoin topped 151 and 152 weeks after the bear-market bottom. Monthly RSI Based on this analysis BTC will top between 47-49 months after the top. In short: between September and November 2025. Forecasting the DATE Applying the logic of the two historical analyses above, we can make the assumption that BTC will top around 152 weeks after the market bottom. Assuming that the bottom is in, this brings us to early November 2025. This would be 79 weeks after the 2024 halving. Looking at the time between the halving to the top, this ranges from 74-78 weeks. All of the above is in line with my Monthly RSI analysis. Combining everything above, we can forecast that Bitcoin will top between late September and early November 2025. Log Price Bands In order to calculate the price we make use of my Logarithmic Price Bands Indicator. I've removed the bottom two bands since we're only interested in the top band, which forecasts the top. The top band is based on a complicated exponential formula that gives a certain Price (Y) for a certain time (X). See this indicator for more info. Forecasting the PRICE By filling in the dates of late September 2025 and early November 2025 into the Log Bands formula, we get a lower and an upper band of the price. This price ranges from 171k - 250k. This is the best forecast that historical price action can give you, although we had to make the assumption that the coming cycle will follow a similar path as the previous two, which is not far-fetched since the asset has matured more. Conclusion Date: late September - early November 2025 Price: 170.000 - 251.000 The macro environment has changed a lot over the last two years, so I'd be happily surprised if this forecast turned out to be true. Personally I'm more conservative than this analysis suggests because of interest / inflation / recession. Still, this analysis is 100% based on historical facts and the best factually correct forecast I can give at a next cycle's top. Please share your thoughts on this analysis. Also interested to hear your predictions! 🙏
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
44