Cycleanalysis
Dogecoin - This Candle Decides Everything!Dogecoin ( CRYPTO:DOGEUSD ) is about to close above support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
When we look at the chart of Dogecoin, we can again see that this bullish cycle was starting with a clear rounding bottom formation. This simply means that there is a 100% chance that a bullish parabolic rally will follow and this monthly candle might just be the beginning.
Levels to watch: $0.15, $0.5
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Lunar Signal Generator My Lunar signal generator uses a sinusoidal wave which is matched in frequency to the sinusoidal motion of the moon. The indicator is based on research which suggests that there are increased returns on days surrounding the new moon and decreased returns on days surrounding the full moon.
The indicator represents a two week trading strategy and prints buy signals before the new moon, and prints sell signals on the full moon. If used as a trading strategy the 5 & 10 year win rates are 70%, profitability is dependent on your choice of stoploss. I suggest a 9% Stoploss however this is discretionary. Can be used on any financial product, however it works best on large cap equities.
Just place on any chart, and trade according to the buy and sell signals
Check out my website, (press the little globe below my profile description)
Please reach out for any questions/concerns
Bitcoin's 60-day Cycle path to another All-time highBitcoin's Next Big Move: The 60-Day & 24-Week Cycle in Action
The crypto market is getting exciting again! When BTC dropped below $80K, people freaked out, calling for a bear market. But those who understand cycles knew this was just another bottom forming before the next move up. Premium Strategy Master members already knew which coins I loaded up on at the cycle lows.
Why Did Bitcoin Crash Below $80K and Then Pump to $95K?
Bitcoin moves in 60-day and 24-week cycles. A full 24-week cycle is made up of three 60-day cycles, and when we hit a weekly cycle bottom, the next 60-day cycle usually kicks off with a big pump. That’s exactly what we just saw!
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
We’re still in a bull market, and everything is lining up for more upside:
The 2-week cycle indicator is dipping below 20 (oversold territory).
The 1-week cycle indicator (red) just flipped up.
The 3-day cycle indicator is also moving higher.
This all points to Bitcoin pushing past $100K soon.
On top of that, this is the start of a new 24-week cycle. The first 60-day cycle is almost always bullish, even in rougher market conditions, with at least 35-40 days of upward movement.
Right now, we’re only on Day 3 of this fresh 60-day cycle, which means the market is primed for more upside.
Bitcoin's 2025 Price Action Mirrors 2017 - Is History Repeating?Bitcoin Halving & The Trump Factor: A Historical Parallel
Bitcoin's price action in 2025 is eerily reminiscent of the post-halving rally of 2017. In both cases, BTC saw a prolonged accumulation phase before a massive markup period. What's even more intriguing is how macro-political events align: Trump was elected in November 2016 , just before BTC went parabolic in 2017, and once again, he's elected in November 2024 , right before Bitcoin enters its explosive post-halving markup phase. Could this be more than just coincidence?
Accumulation Phase Ends – The Markup Begins
From November 9, 2024 , to February 28, 2025 , Bitcoin was in a 107-day accumulation phase . This mirrors previous post-halving cycles, where BTC consolidates in the Green HPR band before entering the next stage. Now, it appears we are entering the Markup Phase, where I expect Bitcoin to rally towards $120K+ in the coming months.
Applying the 2017 Cycle to 2025
The 2017 bull run followed a 59:156:360-day cycle (Accumulation → Markup → Distribution). Using the same ratio and expanding it for 2025, I’ve projected a 107:280:646-day cycle , where:
✅ 107 days Accumulation (Completed!)
📈 280 days Markup (Just Beginning!)
📉 646 days Distribution & Declining (Post-Top Phase)
This fractal projection aligns well with historical price action, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating this structure.
BitBo’s Rainbow Regression Chart Confirms the Setup
Looking at BitBo’s Bitcoin Rainbow Halving Price Regression Chart , BTC briefly dipped into the blue band , just like in 2017’s first wave. However, in both cases, Bitcoin quickly recovered within days and launched into its Markup phase , which is exactly what we’re seeing now!
🔹 Key Takeaway: Bitcoin is following its historic halving cycle patterns, and if history continues to rhyme, the next 280 days could be a wild ride to six-figure BTC prices! 🚀
Don't forget,
Patience is Paramount
Our Cycle Analysis is in Play - What's Next on HTF? 🚀 Bitcoin Cycle Update – What’s Next?
This setup is purely based on my higher timeframe (HTF) analysis, which I’ve shared before. If you’ve been following along, you already know the drill—I covered this in my last video breakdown on TradingView:
📽 Cycle Analysis Video:
📌 Tracking Idea: Bitcoin Cycle Analysis -
Positioning & Market Outlook
We loaded our final spot buys months ago and have been scaling out since November—not fully out, but we’ve booked profits on the majority of our Bitcoin and altcoin holdings over the last three months.
💰 Spot Bag Adds: BTC Spot Buys -
Now, I’m still tracking a 3-Drive pattern for this cycle’s top. A previous 3-Drive setup on the daily was invalidated after choppy price action and sideways movement, but I’m still pursuing the same idea—just on the weekly and monthly timeframes now.
🔹 Key Zone: FWB:73K – $69K (Major SR level I’ve been watching)
🔹 Yealy Pivot Zone -
🔹 Time-Based Bias: Still refining my time analysis—so take it with a grain of salt 😅
USDT Dominance & Key Confluences
One of the biggest confirmations I’m watching is USDT Dominance. I had been tracking an FVG around 4.9x%, which held for a week before breaking:
📈 USDT Dominance Chart:
Right now, the focus is on trendline resistance & Fibonacci retracement levels. If USDT.D breaks higher, the idea is invalid, and I’ll simply keep riding my shorts.
Execution Plan – How I’m Playing This
This setup is strictly for spot buys. If you remember the last cycle, we accumulated BTC during the FTX crash at $18K and only added longs when we spotted a clear inverse head & shoulders setup.
🎯 This time, I’m placing spot bids & waiting for clear reactions.
🔹 Looking for WICKS into demand, NOT sideways chop.
🔹 If price chops, I EXIT—simple as that.
🔹 I’ll consider leverage positions ONLY when we see strong reactions.
I’ll keep this idea updated just like before. At the end of the day, we’re all speculators—no one can predict the market, only manage risk and play probabilities.
⚠ Risk Management: DO NOT RISK MORE THAN 5% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO ON THIS SETUP.
📢 Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is NOT financial advice—just sharing my thoughts and analysis. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
XRP FINAL STEEP DISCOUNT OPPORTUNITY IS IMMINENTMy time-wave cycles analysis (among other components) indicating we will have a final sell wave to 1.45-1.7 zone over coming days (before FOMC meeting in March imo).
Granted I was a little off on exact timing to reach the buy-side targets back in December but nonetheless accurate on projected price levels..See prior analysis at attached link for the projected high coming in at 3.1-3.3, exactly as it happened...
I have no doubt this final sell wave will also occur. Depending on your goals & trading style, you may treat this next sell wave as an opportunity to simply add more at discounted levels via DCA'ing....or choose to sell at these relative highs to maximize position size once again from sub-1.70 levels.. I DO NOT EXPECT US TO SEE sub-3$ ANYTIMEagain after this next sell wave completes & then buyers take us to 4+ in q2 & beyond.
Expecting this to be the FINAL steep discount buying opportunity for those interested in maximizing their capital purchasing power for long term speculative hodling
Follow for additional actionable alerts & analysis. Appreciate the boosts & looking forward to your comments as well!
Overdue for a strong correction before higher yet?Here is my current view of LC. Like many others, I never thought it would get this high in the first place. But following and adapting with this runaway longwinded bull, the funds are very long and as they unwind (it already looks to have started), it's gonna be a sharp downward move. There's good support and technical retracement down around the 190 region, but panic and momentum and long liquidation turning to even shorts could get thing uglier yet. I currently expect to eventually shoot back to new highs, perhaps targeting 220 region.
BITCOIN CYCLE CONCEPT, FIB ORBIT & TIME-ZONEBTC CYCLICAL pattern
1 Complete Cycle = 5 UP (green sine-wave) + 3 DOWN (red sinewave)
24 Jan 2025,
BTC entering Fib extension 0.618 (purple). Fib Circle orbit approaching 5.385 extension.
Expect 5 UP green wave to complete around jul-sept 2025 marked by red X-marks whereas Fib time-zone extension of 1.272 coincides with top of green sine-wave 5
Sine-wave cycle study was credited to Lars von Thienen at FSC
Just an idea on Bitcoin and the cyclesFirst of all, Bitcoin is a programmable asset. Then there are cycles, not just with the markets, but with humans as well.
There is always a chaos within the structures. Just like the atoms in our bodies. They move chaotic in space, but within the boundaries of a our cells. The order is just a well organized chaos.
The First Bitcoin Super cycle is close to it's ending. The Second (mass adoption) Super cycle is knocking at the door. It is up to humanity to decide now, not "the the leaders or the riches".
Cheers.
It is not intended as a trading advice, nor it is.
Just a research on markets I do.
P.S. All the channels are equal in height on log...
Timing the Bitcoin bull cycleHello, and thank you for stopping by to check out my Idea!
I've had this chart drawn for about two years now after spending some time researching previous cycles. This chart is very basic and imperfect, but it speaks for itself.
Based on the strikingly similar lengths of previous bull and bear cycles, I believe the following...
Bitcoin will peak near $172,000 USD sometime between September 15 and October 15 2025
What do you think?
SQ | Why Wallstreet is Bullish | LONGBlock, Inc. engages in creating ecosystems for distinct customer audiences. It operates through the Square and Cash App segments. The Square segment provides businesses the ability to accept card payments. The Cash App segment offers an ecosystem of financial products and services to help consumers manage their money. The company was founded by Jack Patrick Dorsey and James Morgan McKelvey in February 2009 and is headquartered in Oakland, CA.
Post-Holiday BTC Rallies: A Historical PerspectiveIdea:
Over the past six years, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern: post-Christmas rallies. Let’s dive into the data and analyze what this could mean for the market this time around.
Historical Context:
In 5 out of the last 6 years, Bitcoin has seen significant gains shortly after the holiday season, with price increases ranging from 44% to an astonishing 272%. These rallies have been a consistent part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, making them an exciting opportunity for traders and investors.
Key Observations:
2017/18: BTC rallied over 272%, marking the peak of an explosive bull market.
2019/20: A solid 44% gain during the recovery phase from the bear market bottom.
2020/21: Post-pandemic bull run fueled a 122% surge as BTC climbed to new highs.
2021/22: A rally of 90%, driven by retail and institutional adoption.
2022/23: Another impressive rally of 72% as the market recovered from a bear cycle.
The only exception? 2018, the first phase of a brutal bear market, when market-wide sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish. This highlights a crucial insight: rallies are far less likely during early bear phases.
What About This Year?
📊 Cyclicality is Key: Bitcoin’s price action has always been heavily influenced by cycles. With the market in a recovery phase following the 2022 lows, we could be on the verge of another post-holiday rally.
📈 Factors to Watch:
Macro Sentiment: With inflation stabilizing and global markets recovering, Bitcoin is regaining strength.
Institutional Interest: Continued interest in BTC ETFs and large-scale adoption could fuel upward momentum.
Cyclical Patterns: The historical consistency of these rallies cannot be ignored.
Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Case:
If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin post significant gains over the next few months, potentially targeting new highs in 2025 as part of the broader bull cycle.
2️⃣ Bearish Case:
If macroeconomic factors or unforeseen events trigger a pullback, the rally might be subdued, or Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase.
Why This Matters:
Understanding these cyclical patterns can provide a major edge for traders. The post-holiday season has been a lucrative time for Bitcoin in the past, and recognizing these opportunities could make all the difference.
What are your thoughts? Will Bitcoin repeat history this year? Or are we in for a surprise? Share your ideas below!
Bitcoin Dominance: Cycles and Post-Halving 2024 ForecastAn analysis of BTC Dominance in the context of market cycles and halving events. The chart highlights historical patterns of dominance decline following Bitcoin price peaks, which occurred 17 months after each halving. The outlined scenario suggests a potential return to key support (~41%) before a rebound.
Will history repeat itself? Let’s watch how upcoming market events shape BTC Dominance dynamics heading into 2025.
CRYPTO SUPER CYCLE 2024-2026:BEAR TO BULL ALL WHAT YOU NEED HERE🔄 CRYPTO MARKET CYCLES: MAJOR TRANSITION - FROM BEAR TO BULL 2024-2026
Technical Market Cycle Analysis:
- Current price: $346.31
- Clear transition from bear to bull market
- Three distinct cycles identified: BTC, ETH, ATLS
Market Phase Breakdown:
📉 Bear Market (2022-2024):
- Declining trend complete
- Bottom formation validated
- Accumulation phase ending
📈 Bull Market (2025-2026):
- BTC cycle initiating bull run
- ETH cycle following
- ATLS cycle completing the sequence
Key Observations:
- "Traders confusion" zones marked at critical transitions
- Clear cycle progression: BTC → ETH → ATLS
- Market structure showing higher lows forming
- Volume profile supporting bullish transition
⚠️ Critical Points:
- Major market cycle shift in progress
- Multiple timeframe alignment
- Clear cycle rotation pattern
- Historical pattern repetition
🔔 Market Intelligence:
- Bull market projected until end of 2026
- Three distinct crypto cycles identified
- Clear market phase transitions
- Institutional accumulation evident
#CryptoMarketCycles #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #MarketPhases
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