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Cycleanalysis

The Proper Perspective on InflationAs any true trader knows, the inflation rate DID NOT GO UP 8.3%. That is what some retail news outlets claimed "year-over-year," which is plain misinformation. The retail news was designed to trigger a panic dump among the less informed last week. FACT: The rise in inflation started in late 2020, not this year. FACT: The rise in 2021 went to 7%. But the news seldom mentioned it last year. Nope, it was all about vaccines and Covid, etc. The inflation rate went down. It has been trending downward at a sustainable rate. Anyone who thought it would be lower was not paying attention. There is a 3-month decline, and it is due to falling oil prices which were constantly boosted upward during August by the big banks trying to move more investors into buying oil stocks. So, with fluctuating prices of oil between 80 - 92, there was NO WAY inflation would tick down to 8.1%. In August of 2021, inflation had already risen to 5.3%. Now in 2022, it has dropped to 8.3% from the peak of 9.1% in June. So it's 3 points higher than a year ago, obviously not 8.3 points higher. During the pandemic of 2020, the news about the Federal Reserve Board was all lathered up about deflation, that deflation was about to happen, and the world was coming to an end!!!! Sigh. Some people just have to have bad news to feel good, I guess. Oil and the war in Ukraine, which appears to be settling down with the Ukrainians taking back what is rightly their country, has lowered oil prices from $125 to 80-90, fluctuating regularly. Oil needs to drop to 70-80 for inflation to move down more. Slow improvement is how it is going to be. To assume inflation would just drop back to 2% is irrational and illogical. What is an ideal rate? For an expanding economy: around 4-5%. See that red arrow? That should be the goal. It probably is not, but it should be. Inflation lower than that indicates a sluggish economy with a lack of raises for the workforce. When inflation is not in the economy, corporations use buybacks to boost their stock prices, which creates fake rallies.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Altcoin season officially over - BTC takes overStarting with last cycle and the emergence of altcoins in the cryptoverse, BTC has been in a tango with them - either dominating the market or allowing alts to shine. This dance can be seen in the BTC dominance chart CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D When comparing the last and current cycles, we notice some key differences: 1. The market has matured. We've had no blow-off top - either because institutional money is influencing price instead of FOMO or people realized that the blow-off top doesn't last for long and decided to take profits earlier. Or both. 2. Trading opportunities have grown exponentially. Last cycle, during the bear market, BTC has regained dominance swiftly. So far in this cycle, BTC dominance has been bouncing around 39%-48%. Why keep your value in a bearish asset when you can play a short term trade to grow your value? 3. People are not leaving the cryptoverse entirely. While last cycle you could either switch back to BTC safehaven or exit to FIAT, today many are using stablecoins to keep their portfolio value waiting for the next opportunity to enter a trade. For the last two cycles BTC has spent a considerable amount of time in the Value Area (area between .618 and .786 Fib retracement from bottom to top) and found the market bottom below this area. Some say that the bottom is in, others that we still have a leg down to reach the market bottom. Either way, we are not far from it. What we can state as more probable than less probable is that we still have at least 3 months to spend in the Value Area before moving up. Depending on how you measure it, we could still be here for the next year or so. During this time (3-12 months) I expect BTC dominance to rise no matter if its USD valuation rises, falls or ranges. Whether it will find resistance around 48% or move to the next level at 58%, we'll have to see. But in the medium term, the dominance looks very likely to move up. PRO TIP : We are still in a bear market. Now is the time for accumulation. If you have in your portfolio alts that are overvalued compared with BTC, there is an opportunity to trade for accumulation. This means trading it to BTC now to buy more back with same BTC later.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by opripom
2
Gold. How to trade major breakout(1680) w/ stop lost. 18/Sept/22Gold. We had a solid big bar/candle on daily chart closed below 1680. So possible a “legitimate” major “breakout”. Price probably will have a “magnetic” pullback toward previous orderblocks/supply zone on smaller candle where those hot money “gather” before a following “heavy distributed explosive move” with big candle/bar. This would be “ the base” where the “gunfire” will be ignited with more “explosive power” = ( from 1700 to 1600 a whopping $100 ( 1000 pips) drop!) . probably right after FED “big date” on 20-21/ Sept /22 AND..Last but not least where is our “last defense / stop lost” for “this war”...
FX:XAUUSD
by SteveTan
TheKing Cycles- Nothing can be perfect in Life or in Trading, but you can always brighten up your day. - Remember "Cycles are Cycles" - Everything is in graph - You can follow bears, predicting 10 years of recession, but we are in a big recession and for a long time already. - You can fall in the deep and predict the darkness. - i like to see the sunshine in the morning and i will always radiate warmth. - Follow Hope, and always believe in your own judgement. - Be Bold and do the opposite of what commons peoples think. Happy Tr4Ding !
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by thecryer
14
Gold. Breaking 1680 w/ 52 wks low! 1400 is next! 16/ Sept/22.Gold. By breaking 1680 critical support. I have to review the big outlook of gold chart ( And gold has inverted medium Cycle which I’ve missed it )..its previous cup and handle pattern might “shift to” a big triangle pattern ( ranging /base) in wave in (IV)(yellow)...Apparently FED “prefer” $ cash is king = US dollar/ 10 years bond “ not stocks even “smashing” gold! Which used to hedge inflation. Gold price probably drop another 15% or -150% if you are trading x 10 sport gold by leveraging! reaching around 1400 by end of 2022 or early 2023..So..sell on gold on any pullback toward the red upper line of declining parallel channel inside wave B ( Red Circled) is the best choice ( will update detail in next chart) P/s.1430-1400 would be the confluence zone of 1) Major up trend line zone ( cyan color) 2) wave C (Red Circled) @ 1430 is Fibonacci extension 1.618 of wave A ( Red Circled) 3) 1400 are the next major monthly Orderblocks/ demand Zone..
FX:XAUUSD
by SteveTan
3
#XAUUSD #Gold going to 1400$ in a few months? Law of vibration..According to Gann and the bible, there is no new thing under the sun! Taking that sentence and going back on the gold chart as far as 2003, we could see the same pattern shaping up. If this cycle pans out, then we are going down to at least 1400$ in a matter of few months... Keep in mind that we have applied this exact method to #DJI (Dow jones industrial average) and this short idea on gold exactly matches the conditions on that trade. What is going on in the world?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by brokerland
GME: RSI Update, Dip Before the RipGood morning, Last time we fell below the 30 mark on the RSI we saw a 90%+ move up and the other two times it fell to this level we saw 50-100%+ move up as well. I'm factoring in a 60%+ move up as this is like a spring that has been compressed and is ready to explode. I also overlayed November 2021 cycle and it looks like we're following that perfectly. Downside PT: 22.12 / 21.87 (support) Upside PT: Fill the gap at 27, 37 and 40. As always, NOT financial or sexual advice. Good luck!
NYSE:GMELong
by SierrasTrades
4
ETHUSD - Shapes of a Bottom Feat. The CMF & RSI"Ah, freak out! Le freak, c'est Chic Freak out!" I made this chart in an attempt to counteract the various freak-out fests I have seen on Twitter and Telegram these last few months. I am not sure what charts the Freak-Out Crew (FOC) are watching, but they can't be the same ones as I am looking at today. The cycle low is in and the bottom is being made, what's the problem, bois? A good, solid foundation takes months, not weeks to build so what is left to do, other than appreciate the shape and movement of it all? But, oh the macro! Right, the macro narrative is what made me sell everything during the Covid Crash March 2020; never again, my friends...never again. I have learned to trust the weekly and monthly charts. I hope the heavily labelled chart is easy enough to understand, if not shoot me a comment down below and I will do my best to help you understand. Also any counter-arguments are very welcome. Enjoy your day. Cheers.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by fifty2kph
1