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Cycleanalysis

BTCDAltseason is almost done as we are close to completing W5 of this BTCD bear market. 36% or there about will be a double bottom. I think there are a few possible outcomes after the W5 is complete. 1. BTC Sells off back down to $20k zone & Alts get super wrecked. 2. BTC Sells off but at some point the dynamic switches from BTCD up BTC & ALTS down to BTCD up and BTC up & Alts flat to up. I am leaning towards number 2 because I bulleve we are still early in the grand Super-cycle and EOY $288k is very likely.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by Big_Mike716
2
BTCUSD - Understanding Cycles (RSI, Diagonal Trendlines, Angles)***the chart refuses to stay in postition. I have tried 7 times, but after publishing, the horizontal lines are still in the incorrect place. Drag the screen to the left and they will go into place. See below for accurate screenshot. Annoying! Anyone know how to fix this? I am not sharing any more personal analysis starting from today. Reason: You can't find what you are not looking for. 1. Look at the chart. 2. Hover cursor over the note symbols. 3. Breath. 4. What do you see? 5. Leave thoughts in comments down below, yo. Here are a copy of the notes from the chart: 1b) Cycle #1 Bull Market Trendline 1d) Cycle #1 Bear Market Trendline 2a) Price Crosses Above Cycle #1 Bear Market Trendline = New Bull Market Confirmed 2b) Cycle #2 Bull Market Trendline 2c) Price Hits Cycle #1 Bull Market Trendline = End of Bull Market #2 2d) Cycle #2 Bear Market Trendline 3a) Price Crosses Above Cycle #2 Bear Market Trendline = New Bull Market Confirmed 3b) Cycle #3 Bull Market Trendline What's Your Angle? Cycle #1 Bull Market : 22° Cycle #2 Bull Market : 16° Cycle #3 Bull Market : 11° Cheers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by fifty2kph
Bitcoin's end of the bull run?Personally I feel the bull run is over. I was here in december 2017 and the same FUD was spread around this time in the cycle. But that is a gut feeling. The charts tell me another story. The vertical red lines are the past halving. Looking at the time since the halving of 2020 we are 330 days into the bull run. In 2017 at the same point in the cycle we saw a massive dip in the bitcoin price. Just like now. We still had to go up to the 2017 ATH on day 523 of the cycle. What if the timing of this cycle is the same? In that case we can expect a €113.000 bitcoin in november. Wouldn't that be something?
by Christopher_Cross
3
WYCKOFF'S DISTRIBUTION #1: Are Bears Strong Enough?Hello everyone! In this analysis, I present the Wyckoff's theory regarding the distribution phase, some other indicators reinforcing it and why I believe Bitcoin is losing power right now. It looks like Bitcoin is perfectly following every single step of it and any trader should be cautious about it. * If you are not familiar with Wyckoff's theory, you can take a look at this image and use it as a comparison: i.redd.it As shown in the chart above, so far, we've completed phases A, B and C with its respective events. The run to the ATH may have set the top for a while, indicated by the UTAD, being the last strong move of the trend. According to the theory, we should expect a down trend from now on, going thourgh phases D and E in the following days. The relevant levels to watch and a key factor are presented below, according to some other analyses: • Elliott wave : We could draw an Elliott wave starting at the Bitcoin's bottom @ ~3000 USD. In this case, we have potentially just completed wave 3 after a 1500% gain and the price would now start to correct in wave 4. This comes as a confluence with the distribution theory. Trying to find targets for this move, we could use the Fibonacci retracement. Elliott's theory says we should expect wave 4 to retrace no more than 38.2% of wave 3. So I believe the lowest level Bitcoin could go to during this correction/distribution would be around 22k and that's huge! It would mean a 65% correction . However, that level is not guaranteed, as the price could retrace much less than that, maybe to 33k, where we have another Fibo level or even any other support we may found during this down trend. Anyway, it will be a very nice opportunity to reaccumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, aiming for the following wave 5 in the future. If this is correct, some patience may be needed. According to Elliott's theory, wave 4 can take some time to be developed. I'm expecting it to be similar to wave 2, so we would have several weeks of down trend ahead. • Trading Psychology : If you are a crypto enthusiast, you may recognize everyone is still very bullish about Bitcoin and influencers are yelling BUY THE DIP at pretty much every single red candle we have on the daily chart. That's dangerous! Let's take a look at a common argument they have: the 50 day moving average. Overbullish people tend to say buying when the price touches this line is a good buy . Well, it is untill it turns to a good bye ! Take a look at the current situation below. The 50MA is represented by the green line. We are at this level once again and many people are buying. However, take a look now at 2017's top. A similar situation happened and I'm sure many people have bought and got rekt right there! "Be cautious and fearfull when others are greed." Remember very few people have sold the top in 2017, most of them were expecting higher highs. The top must come someday, and it's usually when no one is expecting... >Now, the bullrun may not be over yet. We might see a double top's run similar to 2013. Also, thats what the Elliot wave shown above tells us. The current correction should correspond to wave 4. There's still a great run for wave 5 in the future. >> Many other bearish indicators show us we should expect the market to move downwards in the short term. I'll avoid extending this analysis for too long, so there is a link below to one of my previous ideas which I present several bearish indicators in confluence with the current scenario, such as the multiple divergences, Pi Cycle's top and chart patterns. Make sure to check it out! ** This analysis would be invalidated if we end up crossing the ATH once again. It is still a very good risk/reward situation we have here. At this point, it would be very ignorant not to consider all of this. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section below. Safe tradings, everyone!
BNC:BLXShort
by B4Baggio
6
BTC What To Expect In The Next 10 YearsGiven the fact that BTC has almost finished (if not already) its bull run for this cycle, i've made a my humble prediction of what to expect from the price long term.... The cycles could happen faster or slower, no one can predict such things. The point i am trying to make here is that we shouldn't expect to much from it. Expectations that it will go above 200k in this cycle are absurd and i don't want retail investors to get racked by thinking that. BTC investment is for a long term and not to just make a quick buck from it. By the year 2030-35 we could definitely see prices above 500k per BTC, maybe close to a million, who knows. Prices will became more stable and that is one of the thinks why institutional money is waiting for. If you are thinking of investing in it, now it is simply not the right time. Mainstream media will always try to lure you to invest at the top and sell at the bottom with one scary news. Some thinks never change in this market and that is one of those thinks. Be well. I am not a financial advisor, so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. I could be very wrong about all of this, even though i am in this space for a while now. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AVA37
7
The market PINEAPPLE Analogy for better tradingMany traders think that buying a stock is like buying a shirt in the store, IT IS NOT! Buying a stock is like buying a PINEAPPLE, if you understand PINEAPPLES, you understand stocks. 1 - first you have the first sprouts of the pineapple, that came from a seed, this price is extremely cheap. 2 - then the plant grows, and you have a full plant with leaves. Price is increasing with value. 3 - then the plant produces an un-ripe fruit (Green pineapple). Price is increasing with value. The farmer sells to the distributor of pineapples the un-ripe pineapple at a higher price. 4 - then the fruit becomes ripe and is ready for eating. The grocery store sells the pineapple to a restaurant at a higher price. 5- you can get the ripe pineapple and cut it open, and serve it at a higher price to a standby customer. He will gladly pay. 6 - if you cut the pineapple open or just bought it, and you didn't realize it on time (sell it to someone else), the fruit is starting to spoil, so you will lower the price just to get rid of it. 7 - once a lot of time has passed, the fruit is spoiled and no one wants to buy spoiled fruit, so the price decrease and the pineapple/stock go to the garbage. 8 - until the cycle repeats itself... Key takeaways: - Expensive can be much more expensive -> don't be afraid to buy a new high. - Stock is not like a shirt, if the price is down, it means something is wrong with it -->> the stock starting to spoil. - Cheap can get a lot cheaper. - When you buy a stock you need to look at it from the perspective of the seller/producer and not through the eyes of the customer... If you like it, press the like so this idea will be saved to your saved ideas for future reference.
NYSE:NIOEducation
by ZoharCho
1