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Cycleanalysis

Bitcoin to $1000000 by Q3 2021? Vibrational AnalysisOkay this is too good to be true, but charts seldom lie. Applying the principles of vibration to the Bitcoin market, it is quite evident that the price of Bitcoin is aiming 1 million by Q3 2021. However it is hard to personally believe this, so sharing this analysis for the community's feedback. Time Cycle - 34 Days and 5 days gap for the next cycle to begin. Equilibrium of BTC vibration - Ascending Equilibrium of USD (DXY) vibration - Descending The only way Bitcoin goes to 1 million is when the money starts leaving fiat. It is indeed a brave new decade in a brave new world. The possibilities are endless. What do you guys think?
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by thathanka
17
Bitcoin to $40000 by August? Time cycle of 34 days is perhaps most important to Bitcoin I have found. And it has been giving gaps to the multitude of 5 days before changing from one cycle to another. As per the current cycle we are in and the important fundamental of compulsory retest, this curve is awaiting a retest, which makes me predict a high of 40k by August. Along with the angles of 156, 146, 138, 131, 119, 106 originating from this very point which are acting as clear lows or acting as resistance for further dump.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by thathanka
40 Day Peak Likely in, Shorting for the 40 Day Trough.Hello traders, I mostly trade the 20 day FLD (Future line of demarcation) and the target generated from the 20 Day FLD has been met for the 40 day peak. However while considering the 40 day FLD, the peak target is 0.90730 and the high of today as of now is 0.90103, so maybe there can be a little push up before we go down to the trough. Today is the 34th day in the cycle and the rising wedge is squeezing tighter so time is ripe for the decline into the 40 Day trough. TARGETS As I trade the 80 day cycle therefore I look at the 20 Day FLD for target generation. Price is currently above the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 0.88519, Pivot point will be the peak high, which as of now is at 0.90103 this gives us the target of 0.86935 I have my sell stop orders waiting around the cross point. The overall trend is strongly up so I have adjusted my position size accordingly. Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above. Tomorrows Sell stop orders
Short
by Zaphod_beeblebrox42
1
Silver bouncing out of a 40 Day trough.Hello Traders, Dont pay much attention to the all them messing lines Ive drawing on the chart, they are scribbled on a shorter time frame. TROUGH ANALYSIS As I trade the 80 day cycle, targets are generated using the 20 Day FLD, Price is currently below the 20 Day FLD. Todays Median Price of this FLD is 15.51 taking the Pivot point of the low of the 40 day trough (on 21st April) at 14.50 Target comes to 16.52 I have my buys set at the cross point might change them based on the price action on shorter time frame. These targets are dynamic and change everyday (as I trade EOD), depending upon the position of the FLD. I'll update as they change. Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Zaphod_beeblebrox42
Targets met for the 40 Day trough, now long for the next peak.40 Day trough targets were met yesterday, 21st April so most likely the low of yesterday will be the trough of the 40 Day. Now lets look at the peak coming ahead of us. I usually trade the 80 day cycle, so now we are in the second half of the 80 day cycle. TARGETS As I trade the 80 day cycle therefore I look at the 20 Day FLD(Future Line of Demarcation) for target generation. Price is currently below the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 1.24676. Pivot point will be the recent price low at 1.22470 this gives us the target of 1.26882 . I have my long orders waiting slightly above the high of 21st April. The FLD position changes everyday (as I trade EOD), thus the targets change with it. I'll update if there are changes. Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.
Long
by Zaphod_beeblebrox42
2
Mar 8 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: An analysis for this historic week ahead. Points of Interest: Fib clusters at 2710, 200 moving average, failure to get above key retracement levels, Friday $VIX pop to $50+ and break out of balance. Technical: Failed to get above key retracement levels (i.e., 50% and 61.8%). Poor structure (untested POCs or the levels where most amount of the volume was traded -- fairest price to transact) created by the market getting too long, beneath /ES February high, were erased in the initial correction, while /NQ still has untested POCs below from 8070 to 7550. The bounce on Feb 28 into a balance zone failed to take out a VPOC at the 3140.50 level. In my opinion, the virus-related news is the match that lit the fire (i.e., this was coming). Friday, we finally broke out of -- gapped below -- a multi-day balance that was trending up, mechanically, along a slanted trendline. My belief, going into last week was that we would get a recovery similar to what was seen in the beginning of 2018. I now think the circumstances warrant a move lower, especially considering Friday’s value area and POC which were at the lows, prior to the end-of-day rally which indicated the potential for maybe a continuation into the next session, all-else-equal. I’ve studied that downmoves will rarely end until we put in some sort of excess low. We went from bear to balance to bear again with Sunday night taking out the Feb 28 lows. Sunday’s open gapped and traded below October’s low, accepting the initial downmove price spike on Feb 28. Downside /ES Fib Target 2710 based on a cluster of multiple extensions and retracements meeting in one place. Time from Feb 20 top to Feb 28 bottom = Time from Jan 18 top to Feb 18 bottom Time from Dec 18 bottom to Feb 20 top = Time from Mar 09 bottom To Apr 10 high /NQ POCs: NQ1! Index Analysis: $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA Fundamental: U.S. Expansion: “Economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate rate over the past several weeks, according to the majority of Federal Reserve Districts” (bit.ly). "Outlooks for the near-term were mostly for modest growth with the coronavirus and the upcoming presidential election cited as potential risks." Employment: “The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market was on solid footing despite the coronavirus outbreak, which has stoked financial market fears of a recession and prompted an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve,” according to Reuters (reut.rs). Talk Of Credit Crisis: According to Bloomberg, the fear that a coronavirus-panic and slowdown may cause a credit crisis was ignited this week after financial conditions tightened despite the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut (bloom.bg). Now, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 100% chance that rates will be cut at the next Fed meeting (bit.ly). Adding, Bloomberg suggests that signs of stress in the credit market are apparent through multiple channels; credit card and loan delinquencies are appearing on the consumer lending front, while across the world, “Non-bank companies have drastically upped their leverage since the last crisis, as treasurers have taken advantage of historically low interest rates” (bloom.bg). The same article alleges that this increase is debt and leverage is a problem, even in a low rate environment, due to the “profitability drought that is making it harder for companies to service debts.” “V-Shaped” Recovery: Despite the rapid increase in coronavirus cases (bit.ly) across the rest of the world, China seems to be recovering. According to Bloomberg, “Reservations for domestic flights and hotels in China are recovering from a coronavirus-induced slump as people return to work across the nation” (bloom.bg). Additionally, Chinese cargo flows at ports are recovering, according to Freight Waves (bit.ly). Slowdown Arrives Elsewhere: Countries like Italy have seen a rapid rise in deaths (nbcnews.to) and international travel is getting beat hard; “Travel analytics company ForwardKeys found that flight bookings to Italy fell by nearly 139% in the final week of February, compared with a year ago, the Washington Post reported,” according to Axios (bit.ly). The slowdown in travel is expected to cause almost $113 billion in loses for airlines, according to Guardian (bit.ly). Fear Prevails: Some speculation around last week’s sell-off after the emergency rate cut was fed-induced fear -- “A quick response might exacerbate the market sell-off because it could suggest panic on the part of policymakers. It may also be ineffective because monetary policy moves such as rate cuts typically take a while to feed through to the broader economy,” according to Reuters (reut.rs). Falling Dollar: The dollar has fallen “under the weight of expected rate cuts form the Fed and record-low U.S. Treasury yields,” according to Axios (bit.ly). This is important to take note of because -- according to the same article -- “Multinational companies prefer a weak dollar because it makes U.S. exports cheaper overseas, but it also makes imported goods more expensive for American consumers and can push inflation higher.” As a result, a falling dollar may pressure bottom lines. Sentiment: 38.7% Bullish, 21.6% Neutral, 39.6% Bearish as of 3/8/2020. (bit.ly) In The News: “Bruno Braizinha at Bank of America had this perspective, earlier this week: When we abstract from the near-term noise and volatility and refocus on year-end scenarios we find two limiting cases: (1) a U.S. recession scenario with the pricing of the Fed to the Zero Lower Bound, which implies 20 basis points for two-year Treasuries and 50-80 basis points for 10-year Treasuries; or (2) an upswing back to trend growth as the coronavirus outbreak dissipates, which likely implies a Fed on hold after a 50 basis-point cut (two-year Treasuries around 1.1%) and 10-year Treasuries in the 1.5-1.7% range. A 50/50 weighting of these scenarios implies a 1-1.25% range for 10-year Treasuries at year-end. With forwards currently around 1.1%, the market seems to be assigning a marginally higher probability to the bullish rates scenario (bearish risky assets) for end-2020.” (bloom.bg) “There is also reason to worry about international debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements, some $17 trillion is owed by non-U.S. corporations without what CrossBorder Capital describes as “obvious U.S. dollar access.” It is hard to see how this will be refinanced without resort to further quantitative easing, just as some of the worst pain for individuals and small businesses to emerge from the virus may require helicopter money drops. None of this makes a credit crisis inevitable, and it should certainly be possible to avoid a crisis on the scale of 2008. The scale of the fear should increase the scale of the subsequent recovery if credit issues can be eased. But the fear that the coronavirus will be the trigger to spark the next generalized credit crunch is widespread, and is rational.” (bloom.bg) Vehicle sales are down 80% in China. (bit.ly) “High yield and investment grade CDX spreads are at their highest levels in over a year, and have widened materially this week. In the case of the junk, an optimist's explanation might be “well, that’s down to energy – an increasingly small part of the S&P 500, so it shouldn't ring alarm bells.” High-yield CDX had its biggest daily widening since 2015 on Thursday. But it’s fairly rare for the S&P 500 to be up 0.8% or more in a week with investment-grade CDX at least five basis points wider. The last time that happened was in September 2018. In other words, the top of the 2018 markets before that year's fourth-quarter rout in risk assets.” (bloom.bg) Outflows Surged: “Fixed income funds have suffered their worst outflow ever, while equity funds have also suffered sizable outflows,” according to BoA Research (bit.ly). "The healthy reserves of many states and cities are why we think municipalities are well positioned to weather some economic dislocation,” according to Cumberland Advisors (bit.ly). An energy price slump may hurt: “While many drillers in Texas and other shale regions look vulnerable, as they’re overly indebted and already battered by rock-bottom natural gas prices, significant declines in U.S. production may take time. The largest American oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., now control many shale wells and have the balance sheets to withstand lower prices. Some smaller drillers may go out of business, but many will have bought financial hedges against the drop in crude.In the short run, Russia is in a good position to withstand an oil price slump. The budget breaks even at a price of $42 a barrel and the finance ministry has squirreled away billions in a rainy-day fund. Nonetheless, the coronavirus’s impact on the global economy is still unclear and with millions more barrels poised to flood the market, Wall Street analysts are warning oil could test recent lows of $26 a barrel.” (yhoo.it) Oil drops more than 30% Sunday due to OPEC failure and Saudi Arabia price cuts. (bloom.bg) “Hammered by a collapse in demand due to the coronavirus, the oil market sank deeper into chaos on the prospect of a supply free-for-all. Saudi Arabia over the weekend slashed its official prices by the most in at least 20 years and signaled to buyers it would ramp up output -- an unambiguous declaration of intent to flood the market with crude. Russia said its companies were free to pump as much as they could ... Aramco’s unprecedented pricing move came just hours after the talks between Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ended in dramatic failure. The breakup of the alliance effectively ends the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has underpinned oil prices since 2016.” Information I'm Carrying Forward: Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (reut.rs) "Asia’s economies, especially China, have grown much faster than their western counterparts, pulling the centre of gravity steadily deeper into the eastern hemisphere and Eurasia.” "In 2020, coronavirus has reinforced the point that an economic shock originating in China can and will propagate throughout the international economic system, impacting on businesses and financial markets worldwide."(reut.rs) "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (bit.ly) "Still, consumer fundamentals remain healthy. Personal income jumped 0.6% in January, the most since February 2019, after gaining 0.1% in December" (reut.rs) "So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (bit.ly) "The shrinking goods trade deficit could somewhat limit the downside to GDP growth. A third report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the goods trade deficit contracted 4.6% to $65.5 billion in January. Goods imports tumbled 2.2% last month and exports dropped 1.0%" (reut.rs) "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (bloom.bg) "While the coronavirus is disrupting supply chains for manufacturing, some sections of the industry do not appear to be experiencing significant distress. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose 6.1 points in February to a reading of 49.0, the highest level since August 2019, a fourth report showed. The joint MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago survey suggested a marginal impact on businesses in Chicago area from both the coronavirus and last month’s signing of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China" (reut.rs) Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
1
Fertilizer Stocks look ready to bottom and Nutrien best pick.The promise of better weather this growing season (Farmer's Almanac) than terrible 2019, Locusts in Africa destroying crops and possible higher demand in China for agricultural products should improve sales for nutrients. Canada has the 2nd largest reserves of Potash in the world, and is the leader in terms of global production. One advantage for the price of potassium chloride is the fact that more than one producer has curtailed production of late. Low natural gas prices an advantage for Nutrien in Canada when it comes to Nitrogen fertilizer. They also have large retail network worldwide. At a P/E of 16X trailing earnings, a 4% dividend yield and substantial free cash flow, the stock seems good value here.
NYSE:NTRLong
by malvinspooner
1
Bitcoin Halving ComparisonDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods In my previous post I called for Bitcoin to retest $16,000 before the halving. From there I expected to see a multi month correction back to $11,500 where support would be waiting from a horizontal and trendline. After further analysis I think that is a very good roadmap for the months to come. In the charts above I compare the current price action with what we saw in the second half of 2016, which was the last time that Bitcoin halved. We are currently three months from the expected halving date and last time around BTC pumped 80% in the 6 weeks before the rewards decreased. It started to correct two weeks before the halving occurred and proceed to fall 40%. If history repeats itself then that would indicate price rallying to $18,000 by the end of April before correcting back down to $10,800 in the following months. I put together a fractal to illustrate that potential path and used a parabola to connect to the lows instead of a trendline. Regardless of what happens these next few months should be very interesting indeed!
BNC:BLXLong
by Sawcruhteez
5
CVS - weekly chart cycle analysisToday I am going to review the chart for CVS health Corporation on a weekly timeframe. CVS seems to be following in 18 to 19 week cycle and we saw the latest cycle low being formed with the candle reflecting 27 Jan 2020. On 12th Feb 2020, CVS reported earnings that broadly beat the street’s estimates. CVS reported adjusted EPS of $1.73, which beat estimates of $1.68. The company reported revenue of $66.9B, which also beat estimates of $63.97B. The company forecasted annual EPS from $7.04 – $7.17 in 2020, which was in-line with analyst expectations of $7.15 Lets look at what the charts are suggesting. CVS has started the upward move as suggested with the beginning of the cycle over the last couple of weeks after bottoming out around $ 67.81 levels. CVS is in a very bullish intermediate-term cycle pattern with negative momentum. Given these conditions, we would expect short-term sell-offs to be limited to the intermediate Fibonacci support zone beginning at 70.58. There is a likelihood the stock tests 79 by May 2020 Price is inching upwards towards 75-76 levels, which is the first zone of resistance. This level is important resisitance as this reflects previous cycle high (failed upward move) witnessed during Nov 2019 to Mid Jan 2020. Also, this level shows confluence with Fib levels.... 0.786 levels and hence may act as short term resistance . Once this is cleared, next resistance at 81 to 82.5 levels. As indicated in the chart, this is also cycle high and the previous peak levels , where prices failed to hold on and got into a major declining phase. These levels were last witnessed in Nov and Dec 2018. Price should find support around 69 to 71 levels in the short term. For the bears to regain control and for us to revisit our belief, we will require a daily price close below 66.73 If you like what you see, then please share your comments in the box below and share a thumbs up!
NYSE:CVSLong
by LoveForCharts
1
BUY WAVES - great opportunity with great RRROn the chart you can see cyclic analysis of this coin. Current time calculation between 19-25.1.2020 should give the power into this chart and start new bullrun cycle. You can follow this set-up: 1. market entry at current price 2. set limit order into the zone between 1013 and 1025 sats. 3. set stoploss for both positions at 980 sats. 4. set take profits into the resistance zones which are visible on the chart as a blue zones RRR of this trade if we calculate only first target is 1. 1:2 within market entry at current price 2. 1:4.5 within limit entry at levels around 1020 sats. Good luck to everyone!
W
by HarmonicParadise