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Cyclebottomindicator

Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 04] Quick update on the CBI. So far this indicator has helped us to navigate the current cycle bottom pretty well. For the current forecast to work out, the scenario I could see playing out is as follows: * Bulls push price up to the daily order block to put in a decent Monthly Close. This would also keep the adjusted long growth curve model intact (shown as the light green zone in the chart). * Bear push price back down early June. We put in a lower low on in price and a higher low in RSI on the daily, giving use our Bull Div (Bullish Divergence) NOTE: I have built this indicator with the same tolerance as the CTI, Cycle Top Indicator (i.e. 3 days). Potential Path is shown by the Purple Path arrow. From a Technical Analysis point of view, sweeping the lows into the supply zone of the 18th of June dump wick would make sense (as bears look to attack bull stops before going long themselves). It is interesting to note the following at our current local bottom at ~USD$17,592K: * Hit the S2 Pivot on the Daily * Hit the M-Buy (Macro Buy on the Over Bought / Sold MAs indicator) It is worth noting we hit the M-Buy oversold signal multiple times in December 2018 during the 2018 cycle bottom. Obviously we are tracking this indicator performance for entertainment purposes only. Risk management should be applied at all times with your investment strategy and no one input should be used when developing your investment decisions. Good luck and stay safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
BTC Cycle Bottom - Bearish Liquidation Scenario ConsiderationsHi All, I thought I would do a quick post this Sunday night I have been meaning to do for the last week or so to cover the bearish scenarios and max possible bearish scenarios I think may be possible for BTC current thinking is proven incorrect. My current thought process for a potential new cycle bottom for BTC follows my reasoning in the below charts. Will be fun to see how wrong or right this is as we track close to activating the CBI (Cycle Bottom Indicator). The above providing invalid with the LOG support lines and we do not hold the 300W SMA levels; the risk in the market as I see it for Btc is with the significant leveraged positions whales will find it hard to resist not to target. See some FUD on this topic below. fortune.com If liquidation levels are hit, I do expect volatility and may see some COVID / may 2021 price action volatility. This would provide an amazing opportunity for Whales (and the like) to scope up some BTC at high volumes and low slippage on exchanges. However, such volatilities will make it hard to know at what price range the next accumulation range will sit over the short run. For this scenario, BTC will be historically in uncharted waters in terms of where it has been on many metrics in terms of over sold. We have no other inputs at these low levels to go by other the confluence of TA and market structure. The chart in this post looks at market structure, Order Block Support over the Daily (Blue), Weekly (Orange) and Monthly (Orange), and Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) from the COVID bottom, Cycle bottom and our 2017 ATH (All Time High) , and the FIB from the COVID bottom to our Cycle ATH (on the log chart settings for price). I have done this analysis on the BINANCE BTC UTC chart as this has very good volume representation of the market. Key Confluence levels which may hold up as support in a liquidation panic dump are shown in Navy Blue * ~USD$19,798.68 MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT * ~USD$16,474.49 MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT * ~USD$13,670 MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT * ~USD$11,820 MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT * ~USD$9,157 MAX PAIN - (CME GAP bottom 9630 to 9,157) - MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT MAX PAIN levels would close the CME GAP at the ~$9,630 levels. GAP Boys from 2020 may finally be happy if big money can push markets down to these levels (would be a crazy ride). See below chart for a supporting post explaining CME BTC Futures GAPS NOTE: FRVP represents the volume of traded BTC for the horizontal price over the selected range. The longer the gray bar, the more volume traded at that price level over the selected range. Price generally respect levels of high FRVP.
by Brodie
CME Future GAPThis chart has been developed for use in supplement posts. CME chart reflects the futures treading for BTC derivatives (see link before for more information). www.cmegroup.com CME Futures allowed a lot of investors money to now short the asset. CME Futures like other 'traditional' assets close their markets over the weekend and operate Monday to Friday (Shown as Thursday to Sunday corresponding to my Time Frame in Australia). A 'CME GAP' for the purposes of this post refers to the 'GAP' which often forms with the Friday close and Monday open price of CME Futures, due to BTC (like other cryptocurrencies) continuing to trade over the weekend. 'Big Money' in Futures Markets are 'Speculated' to drive the BTC price to cover positions when big gaps form at the Monday Close. In this post, we referee to a GAP being closed when the price of BTC drops through the gap price, allowing these positions to be 'closed' at break even if large short positions have been created and the price rises. See below Legend with reference with this chart: * Red Rectangle: CME GAP yet to be closed * Yellow Rectangle: CME GAP partially closed * Green Rectangle: CME GAP closed Historically, since CME BTC Futures began operations around the time of BTC 2017 bull top in in December 2017, all CME GAPs have been close. This has held true up until the 2021 Bull run where CME gaps post July have left many only partially filled and some open. The questions now as BTC searches for a new bottom and big money are hunting over leveraged positions and pools of liquidity is will these gaps have their day and fully fill or will btc leave these gaps partially filled for ever and we will not see BTC at these prices again? Significant CME gap close prices awaiting to be closed: * July 2020 - ~USD$9,615 * October 2020 ~USD$11,110 * October 2020 ~USD$11,110 * November 2020 ~USD$16,925 * December 2020 ~USD$18,020
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart & Historic Bottom AnalyThis post looks at the following items to assess BTC possible upcoming cycle accumulation ranges, next cycle bottom and historic lowest price possible: * Cycle Bottom Indicator & CBI Extensions * Log Chart key support and resistance levels * 200W SMA (Simple Moving Average) Historic Cycle Bottom Support * Historic Cycle Accumulation Zone * 300W SMA Historic BLACK SWAN event under evaluation support The premise considered in this post is BTC is currently in the Bear Market phase of a new cycle and is approaching a new cycle bottom and accumulation range. CYCLE BOTTOM INDICATOR As per prior posts. The extension dashed lines extrapolated out in this chart at this point of time estimate a cycle bottom may be put in around August 2022 (based on current moving average inputs). GOLDEN BOX As per discussions regarding the 150W and 200W SMA, the potential upcoming golden box represents the price and time we might spend in a cycle accumulation range (based on prior historic price behavior). Historically the 200W SMA has resembled a key line of defense for the bulls where buyers has stepped in during the darkest days in Crypto to defend price. The bouncing nature of price between the 150W and 200W SMA suggests this in the past this is a range 'Smart Money' has targeted for cycle accumulation when believed BTC has been sufficiently oversold and is undervalued. Prior Cycle Golden Box has been drawn for comparison reference. GREEN BOX The 300W SMA resembles the worst case under evaluation support SMA reached during an extreme 'Black Swan' event (unexpected event which causes wide spread panic selling in the market). The as drawn potential upcoming Green Box between the 200W SMA and the 300W SMA represent the time and price ranges we may experience in the drawn scenario (not historically we have not spent much time in the Green Box and the COVID event is the first time we have reached these levels of undervaluation to date). NOTE: Prior Cycle Green Box has been drawn for comparison reference. LOG CHART The above Worst Case Analysis is combined with some simple TA and Key Historic Support levels on the Log Chart. The worst case Cycle Bottom shown on the chart price levels assumes the current trend direction and uses measured moves which align with key long chart support / resistance levels and potentially the 300W SMA (Violet line).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 03 - FED 0.75%]Quick update on the Cycle Bottom Indicator (CBI) tracking + Log Chart post central bank federal funds rate announcement with a 75 basis point increase. See link for announcement: www.wsj.com This was not too much of a surprise, given: 1) inflation numbers after a 2) massive increase in M1 currency supply post COVID (in all tear 1 currencies) and 3) the massive gap emerging between 2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs FED Funds Rate we discussed in the last post. There is every chance the FED will continue to go hard on interest rate increases until we see the gap close. Will be interesting to see how the CBI performs in such uncharted bottoming conditions for BTC.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 02]A quick update relating to our previous post. BTC has continued its trend to quickly drop to the 200W SMA once it has broken the 600D SMA and we are now in our Golden Box accumulation zone between the 150W SMA and the 200W SMA with potential to drop down to the green box and visit the 300W SMA. If our 'BTC - Historic Over Bought / Sold MAs' indicators holds true, then we are more likely to visit the 300W SMA than hold at the 200W SMA. The first test of the Cycle Bottom Indicator (CBI) is aligning with potential TA support targets if the MA's continue on their current path. The custom Fear and Greed indicator on the daily is heading toward dark red undervaluation territory, historically aligning with cycle bottoms. The % undervaluation from the 200D & 600D moving averages are both in the green zone, aligning with cycle bottom territory. There are also other Macro time frame indicators such as the Stochastic RSI, RSI, MACD and on chain metrics which are aligning with conditions which have resulted in past cycle bottoms. For fun, I have overplayed the 2017 market cycle bottom for a scenario where we accumulate and find out bottom at the 300W SMA. Keen to here your thoughts (comment below).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie