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Cycles

Short term cycle is up and we could see $1080 per share.Smaller term cycle is up until March 15th and for now the medium and long term cycles support the move. The super cycle is up for many years ahead, however medium to long term cycles are likely to top on March 15th and will be down until July 2021 (medium term) and August 2022 (longer term). Since there is conjunction of important cycles topping I expect one last push to the upside before the bear market begins. The $1080 target is calculated by adding 1400% to the March low, which was at $72 per share. Why 1400%? 7 is an important figure in predicting American stock prices: There are cycles that count 7 units (days, weeks, months, years, decades, centuries), moves will often find nominal support/resistance right around the multiples of 7 (14, 70, 700, 1400 etc.) and moves will often run a percentage that will be a multiple of 7 (1400% as in our case). I hope this makes sense and if doesn't feel free to ask me in the comments. I personally will wait until cycles top and take a positional trade shorting this, because all cycles (except the super cycle) will be on my side, but if you are willing to take more risk you could take a small long and if tesla closes below 780 daily - I would get out, because cycles are turning down and risk is increasing.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by CSInvestment
Silver update.Silver is roaring as the longer term cycle is up. We expected that the next short term low on FEB 3rd will be around the 22.5-23.7 price boundary based on the trading range given to us before JAN 28th, given the new insight gained from observing the chart action - the cycle low will still occur but more likely around the 24.30 to 24.60 trading range. Shorts should definitely be reduced at that point and longs considered. A daily close below 24.05 will very likely trigger selling all the way down to 22.8 - 22.3 area - but looking at the situation it is not expected to happen. We should always analyse all possible outcomes and use a simple stop loss order to protect our capital. Remember that futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Have a peaceful weekend.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by CSInvestment
What's Silver's next moves? Following the recent pump on silver up to around 30, many have been scratching their heads about the dump down to around 26. There is word on the block that Silver is heading to 500 but the so-called gurus are not saying within what time frame that might happen. The chart time frame shown is a macro-economic one - the weekly. Always look higher. I highlight some similarities looking back to 2007-2008. My probabilistic estimate (not a prediction) is that on this time frame it is more likely than not that Silver goes south. (for every probability estimate in one direction there is a residual probability in the opposite). I've given my reasoning based on macro-economic cycles in the video. The whole world is overdue a downturn in a macro-economic cycle - a pattern which has been very robust for decades. This time around it would be interesting if we do avoid that downturn. If so, Silver is likely to punch north. Those who have other ideas for Silver going far north, are invited to give their commentary with reasons. Let's learn from each other. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by Captain_Walker
1
Mixed BTC signals from LT MAs. Capitulation must end b4 moonThe 50 day and the 200 day ma recently had a death cross. The 50 week and 100 week ma about to have golden cross. Mixed signals between two long term indicators. imo the 50 day and 200 day has been more accurate with our cyclical performance analysis. Furthermore, BTC still stuck in the expansion phase top (14K) downtrend channel. Lastly, miner capitulation is still in progress. All of this looks to say that the path of least resistance is to the downside. That is until miner capitulation is complete and BTC is able to get a bid that can break and close above the top of the downtrend channel. Really depends on how much working capital the miners were able to build up from the explosive expansion phase and how bad institutional miners want to eliminate competition going into a historic halving that will lower BTC's inflation rate to lower than that of both gold and fiat. Double bottom incoming over next couple of weeks, may even tap $5Ks. LONG opportunity of a lifetime (cycle) because the Bull Phase B target is $90k to $150K. Good luck everyone. Learn more about the cryptonomics cycle in the free Special Report: Cryptonomics @ www.ciadc.co
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Christian_Investment_Analysis
Bitcoin - Cyclicality in ReviewA long-awaited and overdue piece of analysis, my current view of the BTC bull market. These techniques are how I was able to gauge a market top in the previous cycle, you'll find the analysis from Dec 2017 linked to this idea. Although countless mistakes have been made throughout the years, like everyone else, I believe this piece of analysis will be beneficial to all traders as a reference throughout the current cycle. I've been using these methods to manage my holdings and dictate when/where I should be sitting in stablecoins and when/where I should be accumulating long term holdings. I'll structure this post as best as possible as there's a lot of points I need to get across for those to fully understand my long term view, so be patient and enjoy! To begin we'll look at a comparison of the 2013-2015 and 2017-2018 bear markets. As you can see the decline from market tops to market lows was extremely similar in percentage decline and duration. The most interesting point about these two cycles is the seasonality, both the all-time highs and all-time lows occurred at the same time of year. Now let's take a look at a comparison of the 2015-2018 and present bull market. The previous cycle lasted 1,064 days with a total increase of 12,807% which is unlikely we will exceed. The current cycle stands at a total of 770 days with an increase of 1,250% (based on the current all-time high). When you compare the two it brings up the question of whether we will see similarities in these cycles based on duration and seasonality. Once we take a look at what bitcoin achieved within the same timeframe of 770 days in the previous cycle, it's quite clear that we have far more momentum, not to mention the fact we experienced a minor cycle from June 2019 to March 2020 resulting in a 72% correction. Bitcoin is an absolute powerhouse! Back to the point on duration and seasonality, if we see this hold true and the current bull market lasts an average of 1,064 days it will end in November/December 2021 which is far sooner than I initially expected. This may seem unrealistic until you look at how price is currently moving, which brings us to my core analysis and the entire focus of this post. Comparing both cycles we can see a clear area where price begins to accelerate and when price no longer adheres to the lower support trendline. It's at this stage price gains momentum and forms a higher support trendline which we can use as a guide for future corrections. 2015-2018 Present It's doubtful we'll see bitcoin return to the lower support trendline at $20,000, which is why I see us forming higher support and this being the base level for future corrections. Based on this information, it's realistic to expect bitcoin to return to $28,500-$27,000 resulting in an overall, healthy correction of 32-35%. If we see this come to fruition, then the following analysis is a likely scenario going forward and we could see $75,000 within 6 weeks. I'll continue to expand on these ideas as price progresses in the coming weeks/months. Thank you to all those who read the entire post, if you would kindly like and share it would be much appreciated as this took some time to put together.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LewisGlasgow
18