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Cycles

BTC - Lets Compare Cycles - 2014, 2018, 2022I plan to do a more comprehensive writeup on each cycle but one thing is clear- on higher timeframes Bitcoin is posting a distinct pattern this cycle, and a complete deviation from historical norms. In fact, you might reasonably suggest that based on the pattern alone, this is a bullish trajectory. That said, obviously we have layers of complexity here, macroeconomic factors, more investors, more traders, more institutions and heavier whales than ever before. So pattern alone isn't a confirmation we will see upside this year.. perhaps we won't. But it does reflect the growing trust and adoption in the marketplace, as investors managed to drive up the support on higher timeframes while bears only managed to hold the line on a flat resistance in the upper $60k range. In terms of where I'll confirm overwhelming bearish sentiment- I'm targeting $34k as my bottommost support. That is where the support from July 2021 currently sits. A bounce from there will still represent a higher high, it will still have served to flush all the leverage from the market and it won't invalidate the higher timeframe ascending triangle possibly at play. That said, I need to do some more analysis this weekend.. and sleep on it a bit. More to follow thru the weekend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by 1BigPapi
2
Supercycles every 4 years on BTC. Easy explanation.2013; bitcoin suffered a big correction, it went down around 87%. 4 years after that correction began on 2017 another huge correction took place, this time bitcoin went down around 81% and also 4 years after the 2017 correction on 2021-2022 a new correction might have began? Well I actually think we are actually about to see how btc dumps, probably to 20k, due to the psychological power of 20k and also because it was the 2017 ath. Double top on 65k might be one of the main reasons of this massive dump, resistance on that price range is really heavy. 20k is the fastest and easiest ways to get to 100k+. I might be wrong, just my analysis. Thanks for reading, UrDaddyBB
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by UrDaddyBB
AMC - Squeeze Scenario (Cycles, Patterns, Crash)(Not Financial Advice) Posting this scenario, constructed using the current (62 day Cycle) I have been tracking, as well as comparing them to both Doge's and Lucid's Cycle. This scenario also takes into account the possibility of a market crash event. The market is a bit shaky and there is a lot of uncertainty, if we see pressure start to drop the index's around April then a potential cup and handle pattern would be likely to play out, a ripple effect with overleveraged shorts on AMC, would be the ultimate catalyst imo.
NYSE:AMCLong
by TradingWithEmotion
2
Understanding 2022's Relation to the 2024 Bitcoin HalvingUnderstanding 2022's Relation to the 2024 Bitcoin Halving January 15, 2022 Current Bitcoin Price: $43k CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL $2.074T Bitcoin's Halving Cycle As I've mentioned since 2017, BTC halving events are fascinating - many know the past events have started with a trend low roughly 2.5Y prior, and finish approx. 1.5y at a new ATH. That trend seems to be holding true in 2022, in its relation to the 2020 halving event as we start to prepare for the event in 2024 that now lies ahead. While this post does not dive into the skepticism surrounding the BTC Halving events as valid events for analysis, note that I will comment on the fact these trends are yet to be proven as obsolete. Mining represents the demand for bitcoin globally, and the increase of scarcity drives the demand for more supply upwards and hence price action results in a slingshot upwards. Also, know that until we experience an event that is different, the following is true: Bitcoin price at the next halving event is always around 60% of the then ATH, and on its way up towards that ATH before slingshotting above for the year and a half after. About the BTC Halving In summary (for those who don't know) - Bitcoin halving events are when the rewards for mining Bitcoin transactions are cut in half. In theory this is a counter-measure taken to inflation, keeping price representative of 1BTC now = 1BTC later (as opposed to $1 USD now = $0.94 later etc.) The network cuts these rewards in half every 4 years and each 1.5 year period thereafter has seemingly provided a pricing 'boom' of sorts in which the bubble re-inflates as the price skyrockets in our fiat values. The first event was in 2012, then 2016 and 2020. There are consistencies and trends in price action that have emerged through these events. Any price estimations for these halving events are purely skeptical, but worth noting the similarities in them, as orders around these levels seem to fill each time and be in the approximate 'bottom' for the ensuing bull run. Expectations for Price Action 2022 Entry Levels If setting a buy in 2010 at $0.30 would have been considered a low bid, and the same for $300 in 2014 and another for $3000 in 2018, then strategically speaking, setting a buy at the $30k level for 2022 to fill for the halving event in 2024 would be both strategic and realistic. 2024 Halving Expectations As with every other halving on record, I'd expect the price of BTC in March 2024 to be at the current all time high of $69k. This is consistent with what we've seen in each of the previous three in which we see price reclaiming the-then ATH before continuing upwards in price discovery to its future ATH. 2025 Exit Levels If we hypothetically enter a bitcoin long in 2022 between $30k-$35k, and the same trend continues to be at $50k/$55k by March 2024, then expect by end of 2025 to be taking profits if you hold the same trade open (i'm sure nobody will, i'm speaking to a hypothetical scenario of course). Cheers 🍻
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by kingthies
3
Elon In potential profit zoneAs you can see, the price started its bullish cycle in Oct. It finished the channel phase and entered into trading range phase, but not a normal trading range, It created trading range in pattern mode ( bullish triangle ). Parts of the charts are: Red line: short term bearish trend line ( one side of the triangle ) Dotted red line: extended bearish trend line Green line: short term dynamic support ( another side of the triangle ) White lines: Main support zone The Price broken both bearish trend line and extended one with 3 consecutive bullish candles and then has created a pullback with 2 pin bars and another small bearish candle. That's definitely a spike and its pullback, but the context does not support the idea that it's a start of a new bullish cycle which can create a new ATH, or just a minor cycle into the trading range and can go up and touches the previous ATH. For now, We do expect that the pullback continues to at least the broken extended line ( dotted ). If it goes further, the price will make pullback to the main bearish line ( red ) which also will be the cross of the red and the green line, so at that point, strong support it likely expected. So at this point, the tp1 would be the previous high which will give %89.29 profits ( %161 if it goes down to the red line ) and at that point, we need to see the price momentum and decide to go for higher tps or we should take the profit.
Long
by shahriarknd
Bitcoin Price AnalysisWelcome back, Disclaimer: This is NOT trading advice. These are solely my opinions that I have posted for educational purposes only. I hope you make tons of money, I am not responsible for any financial losses. Thanks for reading! Bitcoin has been in an overall downtrend since early November highs just under $65,000. Interestingly, Bitcoin has completed two 6 point cycles drawn out above on the weekly chart. The "1" starting points of each cycle began on the same bitcoin logarithmic growth curve each time; we appear to be finding support at the very same curve where we see the "1?" currently, and with the weekly RSI at lows we have not seen since March of 2020, coupled with possible inflection on the momentum indicators: it is possible we could be entering into the next accumulation phase. 4H As we zoom in, the pattern suggests a bottom of $39,600. If we look at the growth curve however, a bottom of $40,269.36 is suggested. The local low of $40,571.23 is within 0.01% of this figure. Trend support/resistance lines are drawn at $52,100 ; $49,600 ; $48,000 ; $45,500 ; $39,600 ; and $28,750. 1H On the hourly chart, Bitcoin is trading far below the 180h(blue) and 500h(orange) simple moving averages. Given the pattern drawn in red, it will be interesting to see how this one ages. Do you think Bitcoin has found a bottom?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoRichCrypto
Btc technical analysis 2022This analysis is not based on patterns or indicators forming in the market, but it's more based on a previous cycle. Which we can't ignore in my opinion. Also I think we are going to see a lot of traders liquidated for trying to long on this current price level, and then get stopped out or liquidated. The chart will look like its going to continue a downtrend but its setting itself up for a new trend and using its previous support as new resistance. Where we are going to see an outbreak + retest. Then we are facing a lot other key resistance levels, if btc breaks them I think its high likely we will have a bull market. This is my current idea on the market and I have given my average entry on the chart (in gray on the scale) I will probably use a stop around 39/40k and I will swing into new all time highs!
Long
by dokterfuse
BTCUSDTWill be bull cycle longer? Last bull cycle was nearly 1Y longer then before. If we talking about supercycle now - can we expect longer cycle again? Or our top was hitted already? We´ll see what happen in 2022 :-) Where is true? Nobody know !!! That´s a reason why you have to always use SL for your daily trades. There is no discussion possible. Always use SL. If you invest your money for years... you should take profit on the highs of long term trends. Simply but safe. So I wish you in 2022 - no lose your money. Investing or trading it´s not sprint. It´s marathon. You can be lucky with high leverages. But the winner is know always after years. Thing about it. LBL_CZ
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LbL_CZ
BTC 60-Day Cycle Analysis since April 2021, Daily Chart*For the best introduction for Bitcoin cycles, please visit the Youtube channel of Bob Loukas, who was the first to discuss Bitcoin's 4-year cycles back in late 2018.* Since reaching a price of $64,899 back on April 14, 2021, Bitcoin has dealt with China clamping down on mining operations and essentially reducing their country's hash rate to zero, aside from underground miners operating illegally. In order to absorb the massive selling pressure caused by the exodus of miners from China, Bitcoin needed to experience what are called "left-translated" cycles. Left-translated cycles have more days of price going down, than days of price going up. The price top during a left-translated cycle usually occurs within the first week or two after bottoming. The recovery is swift and violent as "buy the dip" mode is in full force. This type of 60-day cycle occurs during downtrends/corrections, as investors buy the heavily oversold asset when retail investors panic sell their positions and get washed out. In the chart above, you can see that Cycles #19 & #20 are great examples of left-translated cycles. From May 19th to June 20th, Bitcoin was able to consolidate as the hash rate was redistributed to other miners around the globe, resulting in higher margins for them. Once the left-translated cycles absorbed enough oversold Bitcoin from weak hand sellers, the uptrend was able to resume and the trend shifted to "right-translated" cycles. Right-translated cycles have more days of price going up, than days of price going down. The price top during a right-translated cycle typically occurs after 45-50 days. The beginning of the cycle is very slow and methodical, as smart money accumulates the asset during quiet times before a breakout invites emotional, retail investors back into the fray. This type of cycle occurs during uptrends, as higher-highs and higher-lows are formed. In the chart above, Cycles #21 & #22 are great examples of right-translated cycles, as each increased roughly 75% over roughly 50 days of upward price action. Bitcoin has been experiencing consecutive right-translated cycles since July 20, 2021 and is attempted to remain above $42,333, in order to resume the uptrend. Omicron fears back on December 4th attempted to derail the uptrend, but Bitcoin has remained strong and has not formed a lower-low. An attempt to break out of the downward channel we've been trading in was interrupted on December 27th, causing Bitcoin to once again consolidate within the channel to regain momentum. As the new year begins and tax harvesting season is behind us, I believe Bitcoin will break out of the channel in the near future and resume to uptrend of right-translated cycles until mid 2022 when the top will most likely occur. If you bought during 2021, I encourage you to think long term and zoom out to get a sense of the repetitive cycles that Bitcoin goes through on a 50-60 day timeframe. Identifying which type of cycle we are in, will go a long way in determining whether Bitcoin is in an uptrend or downtrend. This type of analysis is just scratching the surface for cycles and I look forward to sharing more if people find this information easy to understand and helpful. Let me know what you think, since I am new to sharing my analysis on TradingView, thank you!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by WJeffrey
2