Cycles
Silver outlook. Most undervalued commodity.Cycle tops this week and we took our profits at 20.5 - I don't expect much more upside for now. Short term cycle is down and we will go long again at a better price, below 20. We switch from the September contract and will trade the December futures from now on. I do not recommend to trade silver short - it is a very risky venture, no ideas will be given regarding this option.
Long term cycle is up until 2028. What we can do now? Use the profit to accumulate a surplus using non-leveraged instruments - either the physical metal or an ETF, I recommend the Swiss ZKB silver fund. In the short term there could be a small loss, but it is for a long term investment. If this doesn't suit you - store cash separate from your account. It is very important to accumulate a surplus in my opinion.
For now we stand aside - once there is an opportunity I will update you.
Have a good week and mood!
*Please do remember that futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Updated BTC Cycle Targets and DatesIn this chart I have used logarithmic regression to identify cycle tops and bottoms in BTC. Using the hypothesis of lengthening cycles, I have 3 price targets for a cycle top in mid-to-late 2022. With the current weighting of my regression, it shows that BTC is undervalued right now, with the fair value shown using a blue line.
LONG - Gold"I love gooooold, the look of it, the taste of it, the shmell of it, the texture..."
I'm sure Goldmember would also love gold's seasonality right about now too! Gold has had an amazing run so far this year and it looks like its set to continue into October. I put together the closing high returns and closing low returns for the dates below!
I hope it helps,
Andre
For the past *5 years* July 25th to August 24th:
2015: +6.05% | -1.35%
2016: +3.85% | 0.00%
2017: +3.30% | -0.50%
2018: 0.00% | -4.31%
2019: +8.69% | 0.00%
For the past *10 years* July 25th to August 24th:
2010: +4.22% | -2.24%
2011: +16.36% |-0.05%
2012: +4.12% | -0.25%
2013: +5.06% | -3.43%
2014: +1.62% | -1.51%
2015: +6.05% | -1.35%
2016: +3.85% | 0.00%
2017: +3.30% | -0.50%
2018: 0.00% | -4.31%
2019: +8.69% | 0.00%
For the past *15 years* July 30th to September 6th:
2005: +3.61% | -0.23%
2006: +3.46% | -3.02%
2007: +4.03% | -0.60%
2008: +2.28% | -12.37%
2009: +6.49% | 0.00%
2010: +6.84% | 0.00%
2011: +16.76% | 0.00%
2012: +5.15% | -1.28%
2013: +7.20% | -3.30%
2014: +1.64% | -2.74%
2015: +7.26% | -0.22%
2016: +1.04% | -2.99%
2017: +5.55% | -0.78%
2018: 0.00% | -3.71%
2019: +9.14% | -0.25%
For the past *20 years* July 30th to October 8th:
2000: +0.31% | -2.62%
2001: +10.12% | -0.15%
2002: +6.84% | -1.03%
2003: +9.21% | -2.87%
2004: +7.75% | -0.14%
2005: +9.64% | -0.23%
2006: +3.46% | -11.34%
2007: +12.32% | -0.60%
2008: +2.28% | -17.47%
2009: +12.06% | 0.00%
2010: +15.18% | 0.00%
2011: +16.76% | -1.54%
2012: +10.76% | -1.28%
2013: +7.20% | -3.30%
2014: +1.64% | -7.69%
2015: +7.26% |-0.22%
2016: +1.04% | -7.05%
2017: +6.21% | -0.78%
2018: 0.00% | -3.71%
2019: +9.14% | -0.25%