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Cycles

Evaluation of supposed bullrun of bitcoinThere are 2 channels shown here inside which we would expect the price to fluctuate. I use The black fib channel to adapt it to the recent sharp rise. After all, we are unlikely to see 3k again in the nearest future. Therefore, this tool is suitable to synchronize retracement under the new realities of the market to work out its general direction. The black fib channel has a regression function, i.e. at first its angle was support and now it has become resistance, therefore all the elements - the remaining divisions of the fibs will be relevant in the event in which the price does not break the red downward trend, playing the role of resistance. To remain in sharp condition of bullish market OR the further growth can be possible if: The price breaks above red line of resistance. Doesn't cross below yellow dashed line. Fluctuation occur inside blue channel. 1 Distortion I'd accept is breaking top side. Otherwise, it will just retrace inside black fib channel. By the way, fib (1) of retracement channel, will act as a bottom, if the scenario above fails. If fib (1) fails, then look for dotted green 1.618 as next support, etc. Crossing yellow dashed line is the first sign of reversal, but I'd rather use my fave combination of indicators instead. ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ In my opinion, the bullrun will take place only when the price crosses above downward resistance line into green area. See chart above
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by fract
4
S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW short due to Venus Retrograde CycleI previously took heavy short positons in the NQ (e-mini NASDAQ futures) back in October of 18. That trade from 2018 is here: More details are in that article, but in a nutshell the behavior of US equity markets is this: for whatever reason, when the stock market is making major highs and/or lows, the market faces a very violent corrective move around the time of the Venus Retrograde cycle. The next Venus retrograde cycle starts on May 12th and ends on June 25th.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by itsjustanalysis
9
40 Day Peak Likely in, Shorting for the 40 Day Trough.Hello traders, I mostly trade the 20 day FLD (Future line of demarcation) and the target generated from the 20 Day FLD has been met for the 40 day peak. However while considering the 40 day FLD, the peak target is 0.90730 and the high of today as of now is 0.90103, so maybe there can be a little push up before we go down to the trough. Today is the 34th day in the cycle and the rising wedge is squeezing tighter so time is ripe for the decline into the 40 Day trough. TARGETS As I trade the 80 day cycle therefore I look at the 20 Day FLD for target generation. Price is currently above the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 0.88519, Pivot point will be the peak high, which as of now is at 0.90103 this gives us the target of 0.86935 I have my sell stop orders waiting around the cross point. The overall trend is strongly up so I have adjusted my position size accordingly. Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above. Tomorrows Sell stop orders
Short
by Zaphod_beeblebrox42
1
Targets met for the 40 Day trough, now long for the next peak.40 Day trough targets were met yesterday, 21st April so most likely the low of yesterday will be the trough of the 40 Day. Now lets look at the peak coming ahead of us. I usually trade the 80 day cycle, so now we are in the second half of the 80 day cycle. TARGETS As I trade the 80 day cycle therefore I look at the 20 Day FLD(Future Line of Demarcation) for target generation. Price is currently below the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 1.24676. Pivot point will be the recent price low at 1.22470 this gives us the target of 1.26882 . I have my long orders waiting slightly above the high of 21st April. The FLD position changes everyday (as I trade EOD), thus the targets change with it. I'll update if there are changes. Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.
Long
by Zaphod_beeblebrox42
2
Shorting to the 12 Day trough,a larger downmove is also possibleHello Traders, As I mentioned in my last post, I like to trade a shorter nominal model for this pair as against the standard hurst model. Having met both the peak targets it's now time for price to come to the 12 Day trough of the nominal 48 day cycle(my primary trade cycle) These targets are dynamic and change everyday (as I trade EOD), with the change in the FLD. TARGETS As I trade the 48 day cycle therefore I look at the 12 Day Future line of Demarcation (FLD) for target generation. Price is currently above the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 1.40677, Pivot point will be the peak high, which is at 1.42647 this gives us the target of 1.38707. Now looking at the price action this target seems a little low as we are bouncing out of a 13 week trough marked of 13th April and we should normally expect more upside than downside. We can have a higher target if the price crosses the FLD not tomorrow but maybe in a couple of days later. However, looking at the long term phasing of my analysis, the larger trough of 12 month is lurking in the distance and is expected in late june and we are currently in the second half of this 12 month cycle, so we can expect the cycles to be left translated(bearish looking) and magnate towards this 12 month trough. I am not ruling out the possibility of a higher high than the one registered on the 21st of April before descending into the 12 month trough but probability of a larger decline increases with each passing day. Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.
Short
by Zaphod_beeblebrox42
1
AUDJPY: 68.15 | 72 - 57 - 88 | Reset Rebook Re-Loaded 3000 pips for long term investors 1000 pips for mid term position players 500 pips for range traders 150 pips for momentum intra day week dealers -- requirement: discipline and position sizing important requirement: CAPITAL for averaging down HEDGING and keeping ones morale spirits in tact.. == note: determine condition as Position Swing or simply a day trade =========== down up down up... a random at first glance yet pre arranged for folks with STAYING power on both long short and churning motives
by senyor
BTCUSD: Limit Buy SetupBTCUSD is seemingly being well-offered around the the 50% reaction point on the earlier 60% bear move, potentially providing a good opportunity to buy the pullback within the bullish leg that almost did a 100% move higher from the $3.9k low. The highlighted areas serve as a visual representation of how supply&demand zones are expected to shift through the passing of time. As long as the lower green shaded areas, remains intact, BTC doom can be avoided. Below that area, BTC is in a bearish territory.
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by Zoen_Trieste
6
Silver - Cyclical Trend Analysis - 1971/1991 - 2001/2021I believe in patterns and cycles, particularly within financial markets, there is very often clear symmetry between time periods and price action and i believe wholeheartedly in the study of cycles, so let's begin. 1971/1991 cycle: ~ 20 year cycle from the start of the bull run, to the eventual low after the peak ~ 9 years of the cycle, approximately half, is bullish followed by an almost equal period of time to the downside ~ This differentiates commodities from stocks, whereby stocks usually recover faster and there is more asymmetry in how the cycle is skewed ~ The depth of the pullback of the cycle was approximately 70% of the total move ~ The final low was achieved AFTER the breakdown of the descending triangle pattern, in which it was a two stage move lower, with a sharp initial drop of around 16%, followed by a brief consolidation, then a final drop of 14% ~ The low also coincided with the initial breakout and subsequent consolidation 2001/2021 Whilst the cycle is not yet complete, there are obvious similarities in both pattern formation and price action, these include; ~ The bull phase appears to have followed the "20 year cycle" quite nicely, with the bullish component stretching close to 10 years ~ This would place the bottom on the flip side of that 20 year timeframe, in 2021 ~ The clear descending triangle pattern, and the subsequent break lower, whilst this drop was substantially more violent, when measured from the lower support line of the descending triangle, the move is actually within a few percentage points of one another It is worth mentioning that the forecast low may be calculated in one of two ways, the first is to measure the candle drop (29% in 2020) and assume an equal drop (an additional 29%) before the lows, this would coincide with the 70% retracement and give symmetry with the prior cycle. The other way you may interpret the charts is to take the move that falls below the lower trendline (15%), and assume an equal drop (an additional 15%) and this move would equate to a move to the 61.8% retracement Macro Environment: I understand that the macro environments are very different and are not directly comparable, that being said, the macro outlook actually supports the analysis of the prior cycle that suggests lower silver prices are in the future. The supply chain disruptions are going to directly impact the INDUSTRIAL demand for silver and therefore the prices of the futures contracts (i do not believe that physical silver will fall to these levels). This pressure may very well result in a final flush out of the last hold outs who may believe, perhaps naively, that business as usual will commence sooner rather than later. This could very well be the final leg down, as seen in the prior cycle that results in a final low. SP-500 Index - down over 30% Summary of Analysis: ~ Should silver follow the above analysis, this would suggest that single digit PAPER silver is in the next 12-18 months (between $7.00-$9.00) ~ After which, that should represent a more definitive bottom, in line with the 20 year cycle ~ Watch for another leg down to the 70% retracement of the prior move (within the outlined box) ~ Be aware that PHYSICAL silver is highly unlikely to mirror these drops, as these moves will likely be initiated by industry, who do not foresee a "V reversal" in demand, following the severe economic lockdowns around the globe in response to Covid19 -TradingView
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Profit_Link
7777 will continue the time of the bullsThe last fall gave us what everyone has been talking about for so long in 2018, and so vehemently denied in 2019-2020. We got ABC correction. With a shortened wave of C (0.618 from AB waves). Marginal operators helped us a lot, all positions have developed like dominoes. We have already seen this more than once, for example, in 2014, when at one of the exchanges, the price fell from 700 to 100 in a few minutes. Add panic to other financial markets, closing borders, stopping production, and the damn virus. Perhaps we are on the verge of a new financial crisis. Now about bitcoin . I think that we do not have the right to fall below, but there is a possibility, maybe we will see a price below 3850, for example 1800, 1000 or even lower, but what I will say for sure, if we fall below the last low, we have big problems, this end of the free money project. At least for many years. The positive scenario is to grow above 7800, when we overcome and gain a foothold above this price, we can say that the bulls are back in the game, this is their time. If we still hold the current low, then we should wait for a quick recovery, I do not think that there will be debts of the month of accumulation, for the reason that you should have already bought. And the last I call Mr. Satoshi, and he say: "Keep calm"
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by just5
1
MA AnalysisAs you can see on the chart, Moving Averages and Exponential Moving Averages can play a significant role in determining support and resistance areas. This is multiplied further when there are two or more MA/EMAs at the same price level, and these can make for great validation levels; "If price closes above these 3 MAs, look for long entries on lower timeframes" etc. You can also see that price traded in a fairly well defined range from June to October in 2018, hemmed in by both the 10 and 20 EMAs, and providing some great opportunities. Additionally, you may notice that the Monthly candle of December 2019 had little chance of significant price action, with 2 MAs directly above, and 2 MAs directly below (yikes). Currently, we are pressing up against MA resistance, which previously participated in the resistance of closing price in the April 2019 candle, and the December 2019 candle. Though I expect this month to close quite red, I would be surprised if we don't wick to the mid 9k range, where I will look for weakness. Use stops, and confluence.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Pillarstric