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Cycles

A better model for predicting cycle lengthIn a recent idea, I attempted to predict the approximate date of this cycle's top by comparing the length of the prior two cycles, and using the rate of expansion to extrapolate the date for the current cycle. That method has two major flaws: (1) It assumes cycles are lengthening at a linear rate (since I only compared the lengths of two cycles) (2) Where I chose to start measuring "the bull run" is subjective I've come up with a new model that attempts to resolve or mitigate these flaws. To solve the first problem, I simply included a third cycle in the calculation (2011). This gives us a value for the rate of the rate of change. We're no longer assuming that this cycle's length will increase by a factor of x simply because the prior cycle's length increased by a factor of x . Instead, we can assume that this cycle's length will increase by some fraction of x , based on the rate that x has diminished over the last 3 cycles. It's the same concept as diminishing returns with price, but using cycle length as the variable. I also used this same method for predicting the correction/consolidation period after the current cycle's top. The second problem is a bit trickier to solve. You could eliminate the subjectivity by simply measuring "the bull run" from cycle bottom to top. But bottoms are usually an overreaction to the prior cycle's blow off top, so the exact location of the bottom isn't necessarily the best point to measure from. Instead, I've drawn logarithmic regression bands through the cycle peaks and troughs, and measured the length from where price first touches the bottom band to where it touches the top band. Note that these bands were drawn manually with the curve drawing tool, so they're only a rough estimate (I couldn't figure out an easy way to plot a logarithmic regression using PineScripts, not sure if it's possible but may look into it more when I have the time). Long story short, the new model projects 7/11/22 as the date that this cycle will top (which is a few months earlier than predicted by my previous model). We can also use the regression bands to extrapolate the price on 7/11/22 to approximately $95k. This is a bit lower than I had previously predicted , but that method shares the same flaw as #1 above (only comparing the prior two cycles). While I think that a 129 week retracement/consolidation period is reasonable before next touching the bottom band, I think it's also quite likely that we will see a lower low during that 129 week period (i.e. $47.5k will NOT be the true bottom). How low will the true bottom be? I think my previous bottom prediction is still a pretty good bet, but that model also failed to account for problem #1 above. I'll update my prior models when I have some time (I'm actually quite curious how those top/bottom values will compare with the values from this logarithmic regression model). It's also worth noting that these bands are squeezing more tightly together now, and will eventually break (probably sooner rather than later). As always, these predictions are only meant to be a rough estimate based on prior data. We need to continually evaluate technicals/fundamentals etc to fine-tune these values as more data become available.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by reees
20
SPX. US may Have Big Crash >50% before/after 2029/30. 22/Dec/21.Based on the very beginning of SPX index parallel up trend channel ( thick yellow/cyan lines) since August 1929 until now. The "date" for SPX's time to "meet" the price of SPX "yellow line of parallel up trend channel ":- is at around 2029-2030.. Which might be the equal time taken by wave (c)(yellow) compare to wave (a)(yellow) . ..1)On Charts : Charts consist of 3-Dimensions - The X-factor ( Time or Cycle ), The Y- factor ( Price Geometry ), AND The Z-factor ( The Speed ).. 2)On Elliot Wave / Market Structure : Unlike Textbook written rule : ALL Impulsive wave comprise of ONLY a-b-c sub-waves NOT 1,2,3,4,5 waves.. AND there is NO Truncated 5th wave BUT ONLY wrong wave counts...
SP:SPX
by SteveTan
3
BTC Super CyclesI know many of you will not like this idea. It is a pure speculation based on how the different values like time and percentage decline or rise. I know that time is completely impossible to predict, even prices can range dramatically +-1k%, so my purpose is to share my price view as realistic as possible. Every super cycle consists of two smaller ones. It is hard to get your head around that from 2018-2020 btc was just pausing and moving sideways in a massive range. It was not really a bear market from a supercycle perspective. What took btc 2 months in 2010, it takes almost 3 years right now. Each supercycle takes exponentially longer to play out, percentage gains in each cycle is also declining rapidly in log. fashion: -1st SC (3608943 %) -- 329 d -2nd SC (58398 %) -- 742 d -3rd SC (41981 %) -- 2492 d based on that percentage decline we could expect 30k% for the 4th one. Even if BTC falls to 2.5k it would still be above 700k by the end of the supercycle if 30k % is in the cards. It is just that it would quite possibly take 18-24 years (~7k days based on exp. increase). I expect this bear market to be similar to 2011 where price lost 93%. It is largely because stock market is expected to collapse in 2022 and BTC has never experienced that. Wherever it falls it will eventually rise back up even stronger. Bear markets between supercycles are also getting lengthened exponentially. Not that fast than bull runs but still they do: -1st bear market (-93 %) -- 161 d -2nd bear market (-86 %) -- 406 d due to having only 2 bear markets between the cycles it is even harder to predict how long it could take for the 3rd one as we don't even form exponential line growth from having only 2 values. Needles to say it is lengthening exponentially so to assume that it can take 3 years for the crash to finish is not completely unrealistic. Bottoms are also increasing exponentially: -1st $0.0009 -2nd $2.01 -3rd $163.88 -(4th $2300-$2800) I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Take care.
BNC:BLX
by AVA37
5
ETHUSD - The Grand Finale? (BBW, RSI & Structure)This is not financial advice - just check my past posts to see how accurate they are. Will there be one final and unstable push to the upside that ends in a blow off top and ends this current cycle? My Observations on the ETHUSD Weekly Chart + The price is currently ranging in a very similar ascending triangle to the one in 2017. + The general structure of the market and shape of the RSI is also similar. + The BBW has only been this low at two other times in the last 5 years so we should expect a big movement in the next few weeks. I try not to be bearish or bullish, just note what I see. Any crazy predictions or anything you see in the chart, shoot in the comments down below. Thank you for reading and season's greetings to you all.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by fifty2kph
BTCUSD: Bull Market Peaked? THE RSI & MA Say "Maybe, Baby"This is not financial advice - just check my past posts to see how accurate they are. I have been greatly confused by this market cycle. I can't be the only one. Such volatility. Are the institutions responsible? China? Because of this feeling, I had kind of given up using TA to predict future price, but that doesn't stop me observing interesting pattern and posting them on here so here we are. My Observations on the BTCUSD Monthly Chart + When the RSI drops below 50, it is a good time to accumulate + There is a general downward trend in the peaks of the RSI + The 9MA peak lags the price peak by 7~8 months + By the time the 9MA peaks, the RSI already has strong downward momentum + Once the 9MA peaks and the RSI is below 70, BTC does not recover and heads into a bear market + The only difference this time is the price is CURRENTLY above the 9MA. Should there be a sudden price surge, the 9MA will straighten or turn up and this whole post will be a complete waste of time. Well no, it was still interesting to make. Let's see what happens. Any crazy predictions or anything you see in the chart, shoot in the comments down below. Thank you for reading and season's greetings to you all.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by fifty2kph
4
BTC/USDT CycleI'm trying with this chart to give hope to all those who are dissapointed to the whole situation going on right now and trying to explain how market works and how the price moves by in cycles which is showed in the half curved bubble how the price goes on and respects tremendously those supports in cycle at those zones of support and how price rises when the curve starts going up with the price in the chart explained , If Bitcoin respects those support zones and starts to go up prices are shown in chart the lowest point where BTC Can make new ATH which is shown 130k and Highest price where Bitcoin could hit probably it will take maybe some time more to peak to that price probably at 2022 December , So better make yourself ready for your holding bags till those price are hit and take profit to these perfectly zones shown on the chart! Albanian description: Po përpiqem me këtë grafik t'u jap shpresë të gjithë atyre që janë të zhgënjyer nga e gjithë situata që po ndodh tani dhe përpiqem të shpjegoj se si funksionon tregu dhe si lëviz çmimi në cikle që tregohet në flluskën gjysmë të lakuar se si çmimi vazhdon dhe respekton jashtëzakonisht ato mbështetje(supporte) në cikël në ato zona të mbështetjes dhe mënyrën se si çmimi rritet kur kurba(forma gjysmë e lakuar) fillon të rritet me çmimin të shpjeguar në grafikë, nëse Bitcoin respekton ato zona mbështetëse dhe fillon të rritet, çmimet tregohen në grafik më të ulëtat pika ku BTC mund të bëjë ATH (All Time High) të re e cila është 130 mijë dhe çmimi më i lartë ku Bitcoin mund të arrijë ndoshta do të duhet ndoshta pak kohë më shumë për të arritur kulmin në atë çmim ndoshta në dhjetor 2022, kështu që më mirë bëhuni gati për çantat tuaja të hodl derisa ato çmime të arritën dhe përfitoni në këto zona të përsosura të paraqitura në grafik!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by WallstreetbetsAL
3
TOTAL 2 starting new cycle ? ♼Hi everyone, wish y'all have a profitable life. 🕊 📍 As we have the TOTAL2 chart here, I personally think about a new cycle on the rise. The previous cycles have already been finished through 0-1 ; 1-2 corrections. 📍 We had an extremely important resistance line above the TOTAL 2 chart which held the further rise. However, we may have already finished the smaller correction and see a new cycle. 📍 I wait for the re-test of the resistance high or the pullback to the trend line. THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by C_EWAVE13
1
AKITA is the new SHIBA? 🐕 💥Hi everyone 👋🏽 🕊 Wish y'all have a profitable lifestyle 🍀 📌 AKITA /USDT - Daily Tme-Frame - Heiken Ashi 📌 Cycles - Fundamental - FRACTAL - SHITCOIN 📍Akitausdt is looking as prime SHIBA INU and I personally think it might repeat the cycle and fractal of shiba ✍🏼 In daily time frame I see some accumulation in the chart and it might be a sign of potential growth ⚠️ HOWEVER, keep in mind that such coins such as SHIBA INU and AKITA are just shitcoins and one should really accept the further crash or failure . ✍🏼 As I see the charts I can guess that the shitcoin season may happen since the Bitcoin dominance is almost confusing and big coins such as ADA , ETH , TRX ,etc are not showing very bullish signs! THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE TAKING ANY SELL AND OR BUY POSITION GOOD LUCK NP TRADER
Long
by C_EWAVE13
BTC Bear Market 1st Peak FractalAre you all starting to understand or see what i have been talking about?? Get ready for BTC's Longest Bear Market to Date.. Now Let me State That Yes I can bee 100% Wrong here. I Could be completely wrong and be making judgement too early and it be that we actually do see a parabolic run up soon before the bear market begins but as the state of the current Stock market is looking so bad i can't see us going on much longer without seeing a black swan event.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JZ-2Short
1