Let's go back to the idea that "Today is October 1st, 2012!"I am on the weekly BLX chart because I need very old data. I want to get back to the idea that 2017-2019 cycle is not equivalent to 2013-2015, but to 2010-2012 one (Yes, it is not originally my idea and I am kinda sure you have already heard about it, but I want to work more on it here).
On a big time scale, I see two big cycles (orange lines in RSI chart) where each has two sub-cycles (green lines).
I think the parabolic run started in Feb2019 is the one we had in May2012 and we just completed it (see the arrows in RSI chart as well). The only difference is that in 2012 we bottomed on 21-WMA while in 2019 we bottomed on 100-WMA (Because we had stronger parabolic run from the bottom in 2019?? So, stronger correction?). I agree that the price pattern is not exactly matched but my point sees the overall/general/big-picture movement only.
I copied the price pattern from 2012, scaled the time and put it over 2019 cycle, how nice the pick of copied pattern matched with 2020 halving! (Again, forget about the price number, I am not saying we are heading 100K-200K!!). HOWEVER, there is one possibility that we go almost sideways (slightly upward) with some minor pumps and dumps till May 2020 and then the major bull run (I mean parabolic run) starts afterwards.
If this theory plays out well, then we probably have to major parabolic runs ahead, one in 2020 and one in 2021, like those we had in April2013 and Nov2013.
What do you think?
Cheers,
