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Cycles

Historical Average Bear Market Studies.. Applied To Bitcoin.Quite a few things going on within this chart, but what I'm trying to convey is actually very simple. The chart is based off a few key models which have been used with tremendous accuracy for over a century. Model 1) Bear markets will usually last about 18 months in duration. Model 2) Bear markets will usually last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull. Model 3) Average Model 1 and Model 2. Blue Vertical Line: 18 Month Marker .. Based on the historical average duration of bear markets. Red Vertical Line: Bull Run Divided By 3 .. Based on the notion that a bear market will typically last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Historically this is very accurate. Yellow Vertical Line: Average of Both Bear Market Studies .. Averaging both studies gives us a mean and a "prime" timing window to hunt investment grade opportunities. Purple Vertical Rectangle: The Window To Focus In On ... If you're long term bullish on this asset. Key points here: 1) We've already retraced well beyond 78.6% of the entire range from bottom to top (from $109 to $19,800) - What I would consider Investment Grade location. 2) If history tends to repeat itself or rhyme... we're in the sweet spot in terms of TIMING a purchase, being right in between both of our historically accurate bear market studies. 3) Comparing this pice action to the 2015 bear market, we're actually in about the exact same location as we were in 2015 when the market bottomed. Right in between 78.6 retracement and 88.6% retracement . Anecdotal evidence we may be bottoming now. 4) "Buy When It Snows, Sell When It Goes" - Old adage in the stock market which has merit. Should you base your investment decisions based entirely off a saying on wall street? Absolutely not. But here we are coming out of the winter and in to crypto's favorite time of the year. Seasonality wise, we consistently see the market lift in the spring and in to the summer. 5) Internally - **NOT shown on this chart for the sake of keeping it clean and readable. *Volume breakout shown on OBV. *Looong double momentum divergence confirmed, shown in the MACD. *Embedded momentum oscilator trying to break out of oversold. I use a modified W%R, but something more common like RSI or stochastics would give you the same reading. *Overall the Weekly internals look massively bullish. Just keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart. Each candle takes a week to print. So this DOES NOT MEAN that you can expect upward movement from this point forward. In many cases after the Weekly charts start showing buy signals, it can easily take a month before any significant price movement occurs. So be weary of the timeframe I'm referring to. 6) Final confirmation for me is a weekly close above $4040.99. At this point I'm not "betting the farm," but I will be exchanging a considerable amount of USD holdings back in to Bitcoin.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by bitflip01
BTCUSD 4H Gann Sq Targets - Pivot Point 2/26Dominant trend is bear, and we hit some potential pivots astrologically and vibration wise - daily cycles (24/48/96/192) from the top and bottom. It's tough to say for sure what alignments incentivize what bear/bull/pivot ect... Based on some initial limited information, We look like we're ready for a move back up. I made some targets using Gann's square of 9, which is the blue dotted lines. That's not to say we're going up right now, we could head a little lower. If we do, I will adjust targets. Astrological Chart: imgur.com
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Mikelikescrypto
When to buy & hodl, when to sell & wait... in a simple equationIt's so cliché but... if Bitcoin was actually subject to repetitive cycles? According to this hypothesis, we would then have the following "algorithm" for investors: WHEN (RSI14 > 90) AND (MA9 > MA20) THEN IF(1st Occurence == True) THEN // Bear Trap! WAIT (OR... SELL and BUY the correction soon after) ELSE // 2nd Occurrence = Bull Trap! SELL and WAIT WHEN (RSI14 <40) AND (MA9 < MA20) THEN // Oversold RSI and EMA Cross Strategy BUY ZONE Too simple, too basic? perhaps... :) (What you can add a dozen other buying indicators by reading my related ideas)
BNC:BLXLong
by MaxHodler
2
An Examination of DOGEBTC Price Cycles, Pt. 1About a year ago, I told a friend that I'd discovered a cycle in the peaks of DOGEBTC. He agreed and later sent me a chart that had a similar interpretation as one I came across a few days ago by InvestingScope: I never looked at the cycles on a one week resolution so it was really neat to see our observation (the existence of a cycle) confirmed by someone else in a different way. Dunno how far down the rabbit hole I'll go with this but, here's a bit of my interpretation of the DOGEBTC cycle. Since charts are cool, I'll start there.... The first point of difference I have with the InvestingScope chart is the identification of a first peak. InvestingScope (and my friend) used Feb 10, 2014 @ 300 while I use Sep 7, 2014 @ 120 instead. My reason for rejecting the high on 2/10/2014 is simple: It doesn't fit my theory. Just kidding. Actually, I don't count it as the first for a number of reasons. I may discuss them in a future update or the comments section below, but for now, they are a distraction primarily because I end up with the same result either way. This might not be true for everyone else's theory though. From peaks A to C there are 488 bars and peak B is roughly half way between the two. From E to G there are 476 bars, and peak F is roughly half way between the two. From peak C to peak E there are 480 bars, however there is not a corresponding peak D roughly halfway between the two . Because of this gap, it's easy to draw the same conclusion both InvestingScope and my friend did: that there is a recurring cycle of four peaks. However... before I get to that, there are a couple things I want to point out. Peak E seems to mark the point where DOGE transitioned from a downward slope to an upward one. And with the upward trend a new set of peaks (e,f,g) emerged. Peak (e) is roughly halfway between E and F, and peak (f) is roughly halfway between F and G: And while peaks E, F, G progressively get smaller, peaks (e), (f), and (g) grow progressively higher with an average time of 101 bars after the larger peaks E, F, and G. That's a clue if I ever saw one, so.... I looked to see if there were corresponding peaks (a), (b), and (c) about 101 bars after A, B, and C. Since DOGEBTC was trending down during this time, I would expect peaks (a), (b), and (c) to be flattened and harder to recognize. It wasn't too hard to find good candidates for (a) and (b) but (c) creates a dilemma. The 101 block is deserted and the best visual candidate is only 62 bars away. Forty bars is too much of a variation to be accepted without a good explanation as to why it was shortened by 40%. And the alternative, that the pattern dies during the 480 bars from C to E, needs just as much of an explanation. Of course I have one. You've just got to wait until I make another cup of coffee. Take a gander at these while you wait:
by Quicksilver80