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Cycles

BTC Bubble and Return to the MeanI'll be the first person to call myself a Bitcoin bull. I have been daily cost averaging Bitcoin as an investment for a while now, but I am also realistic about the asset and know that no amount of hopium can make what I want happen unless the market wills it to be so. So, with that preface, I give you my projection for the next year. As with all long timeframe projections, this is just an educated guess using historical data. I have no special crystal ball and I don't have any super powers that let me see in to the future. If you have been trading markets for any length of time, you've probably come across an image often referred to as the "Anatomy of a Bubble" that illustrates the 5 Stages of A bubble . While I don't think Bitcoin is going to completely collapse, all markets experience periods exuberance which lead to this pattern. To illustrate my idea more clearly, I've created this handy infographic to accompany my chart analysis If we zoom out on the weekly chart, we can see that Bitcoin has been in a nice and clean upward channel since, at least, August 2011. At this scale, each cycle can be clearly seen, each extending above the EQ, sometimes touching but always coming close to, the upper mark of the range. This most recent cycle, began in March 2020 with the global market panic that crashed not just crypto but also legacy markets around the world. By February 2021, Bitcoin had reached the EQ of this trend channel and there it remained, unable to continue, for the next two months, finally losing momentum in May, unable to have a high extend up and reach the EQ for another time. Now look back at the prices one year earlier, in 2019, we see a similar pattern. Price started around halfway between the range lows and the EQ, proceeded up to the EQ where it remained for a couple of months, eventually dropping back down to the range lows... Look again at the pattern for 2020 to present... looks familiar, does it not? If we assume patterns repeat, at least approximately, we can project forward from where we are today and see what the rest of the year is likely to look like. As of the time of this writing, prices are below the 0.5 DOW marker and while it's still early in the week, the current weekly candle does not look promising. Unless major support is found in the next couple of days, I expect price will continue to retrace to the 0.382 fib, just as it did back in 2019. From there, I expect we will find support, at least temporarily, a rally from there will lead us back to the golden pocket between 0.618 - 0.65 and if we are unable to break through the infamous 42k boundary and hold it, I fully expect panic will set in for many retail traders and investors which will drive us in to the capitulation and despair phase of the cycle, down to around $20k at the 0.236 and the ATH that was set back in 2017. As I said in the beginning of my post, I am bullish on Bitcoin from a hyper macro perspective, but it's not a straight line, so buckle your seat belts. The road is about to get even bumpier.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by tedwardd
AMPL in the perfect buy zoneAMPL has completed another of its parabolic rise/correction cycles. Thanks to the overall crypto market correction today, AMPL now hit its bottom and is in the perfect buy zone range. After several red days, I expect this asset to make a quick recovery of 30-40% followed by a minor correction and accumulation phase that may last 2 to 3 weeks and finally ending in the next parabolic rise/correction cycle, possibly by mid to late December. RSI and MACD indicators both signal this to be an opportune moment to invest in this asset. We now have a fairly consistent history of AMPL's fluctuation between the ~0.8 and 1.7 USD range and can predict similar patterns to follow with relatively high confidence. Good luck trading and remember to always do your own research before committing to an asset.
FTX:AMPLUSDLong
by odyszeus
Bitcoin Analyze (Similar Movements ❗️❓)Bitcoin is running in ascending channel from the middle of July until now. In this post, I will compare four rallies that Bitcoin has passed from 21 July until the current price. each rally has been made from two pivot points. First, I will explain the features of four rallies. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ) Timeframe Daily⏰ Rally 1: start date: 21 July 2021 End date: 07 Sep 2021 Rally time: 49 days Price growth: +80.76% Rally 2: start date: 07 Sep 2021 End date: 21 Sep 2021 Rally time: 14 days Price reduction: -23.34% Rally 3: start date: 21 Sep 2021 End date: 09 Nov 2021 Rally time: 49 days Price growth: +74.36% Rally 4: start date: 09 Nov 2021 End date: ❓❓ Rally time: ❓❓ Price reduction: ❓❓ Second I tried to find answers by comparing rallies and Fibonacci tools (if you look at my chart carefully, you will know how did I find responses to questions marks). End date: 21 Nov until 04 Dec Rally time: 14-25 days price reduction: -24% until -21% I am expecting that bitcoin can reverse from 55620- 52000$ at TRZ 2. reversal can happen with one of the reversal patterns such as double bottom pattern. Note: if bitcoin losses ascending channel, we will see a bear market or range market until the end of the year. My Suggestion: if you want to have bitcoin on your portfolio, you can buy it in one or two step for around 55600$ until 52000$. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅'like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by pejman_zwin
21
Blow off top 4th - 14th December (2021 chart)Takeaways: 234 days from first high to last high in 2013, will put us at 4th of December. 147 days from mid-summer dip reversal would but us at 14th of December. Another interesting fact is that the average of both previous cycle hit of 2.272 (close to ATH ) is 4th of December (2013 28 Nov/2017 12 Dec) Also, new moons are a very reliant top indicator (often 2-3 days within tops) ALL of the three cycles had new moons at or days within the blow-off tops.
BNC:BLX
by Morteno
Blow off top 4th - 14th December Takeaways: 234 days from first high to last high in 2013, will put us at 4th of December. 147 days from mid-summer dip reversal would but us at 14th of December. Another interesting fact is that the average of both previous cycle hit of 2.272 (close to ATH) is 4th of December (2013 28 Nov/2017 12 Dec) Also, new moons are a very reliant top indicator (often 2-3 days within tops) ALL of the three cycles had new moons at or days within the blow-off tops.
BNC:BLXLong
by Morteno
BITCOIN ATH PROGRAMMED IN LETS SEE IF HISTORY REPEATS ITSELFBare with me on this chart, it may look a bit messy when you don't know what it is you're looking at so I will try and break it down as best I can. We know that Bitcoins market cycle is over a period of 4 years. Whereby we see a year long bear market, followed by an accumulation period moving up to Bitcoins halving event, which to date has arguably been the trigger that initiates the Bitcoin bullrun which in turn triggers the rest of the market to start following Bitcoins appreciation. The data shows that in 2013 price hit its ATH at the 2.272 + 15%, in 2017 it did the same and in 2021 if history repeats itself the projected ATH for Bitcoin will be circa 233k. Just because this has happened before doesn't mean it'll happen again, however until this pattern fails to replicate I will continue to follow it. With past Bitcoin bear markets we can expect around an 85% drop from its ATH. In 2013 it was 86.75% & in 2017 it was 84%. So if Bitcoin hits it's 2.272 this cycle and over extends a 85% drop from 233K will bring us to around 30K. This is a strong support level which further backs up this theory. we may see a small over extension to around 26-28K, but again looking at history Bitcoin has never revisited a previous ATH and tested it as support. With this being said assuming history repeats itself, we now have the Top and Bottom for Bitcoin already programmed into the charts. This would make sense given what Bitcoin is but it has yet to be confirmed/proven. If this pattern continues it will become clearer and clearer that these prices are all programmed in already. 2021 BITCOIN NEW ATH = 233K 2022 BITCOIN LOCAL BOTTOM = 30K Bitcoin likes to spend around 52-58 weeks in a bear market before the bottom is formed. After the bottom forms Bitcoin has taken 142 weeks (2013) & 150 weeks (2017) to reach its ATH. Currently we are on the 154th week. Meaning Bitcoins ATH is imminent in the next couple of weeks. If we assume Bitcoin takes another 8 weeks on top of what it previously took to hit its ATH in 2017, then that puts Bitcoin printing a top on 06/12/2021. In terms of the pattern being an increase of 8 weeks every cycle, there isn't much data to go off on this, but as it stands. This is the longest Bitcoin has taken to hit a new ATH. So we know at least that the data shows that every cycle Bitcoins ATH cycle becomes longer. Essentially from this point onwards we can expect Bitcoin to go parabolic and hit it's ATH before initiating its long bear market. In line with a pending economic crash? 2022 will be a very interesting year but one thing is for certain. it will be the year where generational wealth is achieved. SO HOW DO WE KNOW WHEN BITCOIN WILL HIT ITS ATH??? The reason I chose the 2WEEK candle chart was to illustrate the importance of the 1.618 fib extension. In 2013 and 2017 respectively a 2 WEEK full body candle closure above the 1.618 lead to a parabolic move to the 2.272. Currently in this cycle the first week has already closed above this threshold, we're now looking for a second weekly close above 60400, to complete the 2W candle. Once we get the 2W close above this zone, history again dictates we will be seeing 2.272 very soon, within a matter of weeks. All eyes on the weekly close commencing this Sunday. The most fun part of the bull run is almost here, remember to set sell targets and take profits. No one ever went broke taking money off of the table. Don't think price will never go back down. You're most likely very wrong. Finally just to round this up. If we draw a Trendline from the 1.272 bottom we can see historically during the mania phase of Bitcoins bullrun this has held up until Bitcoin hits the 2.272. After the ATH has been printed similar to the 1.618 theory. If we get a full 2WEEKLY body close below the Trendline, this is confirmation that the bear market is in and we should expect lower lows and lower highs until the bottom is in. Bitcoins next top is predicted to come in December 2025 which is even more interesting and backs up the fact that all this is programmed. Can you guess when the next top will be? It's a conversation for another day but all this seems to fit in perfectly with the WEF's Great Reset Agenda. LOL. According to the data, Bitcoin should print its new bottom around Dec 2022/Jan 2023. This is where I'll be buying. Until this it's sell the rally and wait patiently.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PrinceParisOfTroy
2
Predicting the bottom: what can 2013 and 2017 tell us?If you're like me, you have a job and hobbies and things to do other than staring at charts. I consider myself an investor and cycle trader rather than a swing trader. The vast majority of my gains are made on only a handful of trades made over the course of a few months/years. As I mentioned recently, I think this cycle has yet to peak and there are still significant returns to be had in the coming weeks/months: So why am I thinking about the bear market bottom now when we likely have yet to see the bull market top? The answer is simple: if you have an idea of where the bottom will be, you'll have a better idea of where to sell the top. And it's a lot easier to sell in a scorching hot market when you have some degree of confidence that you'll be able to buy again in the future at a lower price. Earlier this year, I made predictions on where this cycle's top would be based on the rate of diminishing returns of the last two cycles: Now I'm using this same type of analysis to get a sense of where price will bottom out in the inevitable bear market. Here I'm looking at three measurements from the last two cycles: (1) Cycle top to bottom (2) Prior cycle top to next cycle bottom (3) Prior cycle bottom to next cycle bottom Then, using the same rate of diminishing returns we saw from 2013 to 2017, I've extrapolated the values for the current cycle. Here's what I found: Prior cycle top to next cycle bottom: $29,499 Prior cycle bottom to next cycle bottom: $19,192.66 Since we don't yet know where this cycle's top is, we don't have the data required for the "cycle top to bottom" projection, but we can look at the numbers for a few realistic scenarios for where the top might be: (1) $115k (most likely scenario): $21,689 (2) $69k (bearish scenario): $13,013.40 (3) $180k (bullish scenario): $33,948 I think the $115k top is the most likely scenario, so I'm choosing to use that figure for now. It's probably also worth noting that bitcoin has never bottomed below a prior cycle's high. And while I think that's probably a safe assumption to make again for this cycle, I don't think that pattern is likely to hold much longer. Finally, taking the average of the three values (29499, 19192.66, and 21689), we get $23,460.22 (there's that CME gap for all you superstitious fanatics). There are, of course, a lot of variables at play, so I'm certainly not going to start placing orders at $23.46k as if it were a foregone conclusion. But this does give us a realistic idea of what we should probably expect, and can shape our decisions going forward. So, with this in mind, my next BTC target ($79-80k) is likely where I'll ramp up the profit-taking process, reallocating and reducing positions. Sure prices may continue running higher, but it's a long way down to the bottom, so I'm more than happy to start securing some profits here because I can be fairly confident that at some point over the next year or so I'll be buying much much cheaper.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by reees
6
PYPL: Early Dec Major Cycle Bottom?Paypal is setting up for a potential Tesla (May 2019) like move in early December. Structure has an initial 5 wave impulse and now everyone is panic selling back to the original impulse 1 low. We could still move down to the VPOC until then Dec. So far there's no buyers at all so it would be pre-emptive to buy without any confirmations. Looking for for PYPL to meet my confirmations over the next month and if so, we're going to get a really nice long on this one.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by 1877
2
Dotcom compared to today's Cryptocurrency Market - Watch Out!An online survey of 1,338 Americans by Money Magazine in 1999 found that nearly one-tenth of dot-com investors had at least 85% of their money in internet stocks. Everyone, everywhere was daytrading dot-com stocks in late 1999. According to the Intelligent Investor, what many people feared was bumping into somebody at a barbecue who was getting even richer even quicker by daytrading dot-com stocks than they were. CNBC published the following headline on April 9th, 2021: Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined . I was stunned by this. $569 billion has flowed into global equity funds in a period of only 5 months, compared with $452 billion going back to the beginning of the 2009-2020 bull market. Unadjusted to inflation, this equals to a 24x times shorter period! An online survey of 1,338 Americans by Money Magazine in 1999 found that nearly one-tenth of dot-com investors had at least 85% of their money in internet stocks. (src: The Intelligent Investor) In a survey conducted in a FB group with over 250k members by me, 71% of the candidates said they have more than 85% of their total investing portfolio fund allocated to cryptocurrencies. The second most voted answer accounted for 10% of the candidates having 6 - 10% of their portfolio allocated to cryptocurrencies. The FB cryptocurrency investing group grew from 37.5k group members in March, 2020 to around 250k currently. Representing an increase of 570% in users. Out of the data above we can conclude the average newcomer to cryptocurrencies isn't safely diversfied in different asset classes. In a more anonymous survey, almost 60% of candidates admitted they have between $1,000 and $10,000 invested in cryptocurrencies. 8% of candidates had less than $1,000 invested whereas a same percentage had $50,000 or more invested. See Graph: How much money people have invested in cryptocurrencies The following Medium article dates back to May 8th, 2018, 4 years ago: 12 Graphs That Show Just How Early The Cryptocurrency Market Is . It predicted the evolution of the cryptocurrency market partially with the beginning stage of the dotcom bubble. The article was a success and scored well on the accuraccy of the overall predictions. One of the metrics compared were cryptocurrencies unique addresses (users) that would grow from 25M to 80M in 2021. At the time of writing there are 78 million blockchain wallets: www.statista.com In comparison, internet users increased from 70M to 400M in 2000 at the time of collapse: www.researchgate.net On January 2022, we could witness bearish action as we enter a new 4-year cycle if we divide Bitcoin's cycles by longterm bearmarkets on the logarithmic scale: Thanks for reading this article, trade safe!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by jonathanvn
1
XRP start moving to 3.20 $ I see XRP is doing well this week, big banks, big platforms are trusting in XRP, some huge volumes start moving, As we can see, we are above the 0.85 - 0.95 support area, good opportunity for moving up with some accumulation from market makers. In general, we are targeting 3.20 $ by the 1st quarter of 2022 as we see the SEC manipulating the market just to make XRP holders give up and sell their XRP to buy ETH. you can see in the chart blue vertical lines; nearly these dates I expect significant volatility based on Gann square of 9. - - Don't sell your XRP this coin have a good future for the long term. Remember always take some profits to increase your opportunity for buying when the price goes down, I personally believe that XRP is a trusted coin.
BYBIT:XRPUSD.PLong
by youssefallax