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Cycles

GBPUSD bottomed cycles!GBPUSD has two cycles playing under the hood here, a major cycle which lasted for more than 54 trading hour and it had just bottomed out today, and a minor cycle which was expected to continue for a while a minor "downtrend" causing the "w" shape in the overall trend, but early in this morning we got a very optimistic news about the Brexit process which ended up this cycle early as we all saw in the 1H rally candle! Currently, the two cycles just bottomed out causing a very strong and Important support area, and I'm expecting a bullish phase in the market the upcoming days, AS LONG AS THE MARKET DOESN'T BREAK BELOW THE LAST BOTTOM OF THE BOTTOMED CYCLE, THIS SCENARIO IS VALID. Follow this idea since we will update it regularly. Good luck,
by TradingSight-
Why I Don't Follow TA Anymore and Why Bitcoin Isn't That SpecialOnce again, the chart should be self-explanatory, but I thought maybe some users would be too young to be familiar with some concepts, or simply uninformed. Being concrete 0.00% , the reference rate given set by the Fed is an inflation target. Inflation is a controversial topic, but both sides have points in favour. Inflation is happening, and the logic for it is to encourage spending. Likewise, when a reserve currency rises, the competing assets, prominently stocks, tend to slow down. The opposite is also true: if the interest rates are high enough, during a period where economic stimulus is required, central banks can turn dovish and make people want to get rid of their currency, making them spend and avoiding stagnation. In this chart I marked the 5 financial crisis that are relevant to Bitcoin's study. The dotcom bubble rose while regulations were lax and a crypto-like craze not only reached nerds, but anyone who had a bank account. Without any actual knowledge of investment, the stock market inevitable bubbled out of its mind. You can see that the dollar was rising leading up to the dotcom crash. This happens because EM move their funds into dollars, since Wall Street is denominated in USD exclusively. After 8 years, a special kind of derivative asset, the CDO, swamped the market and undermined the credit system. In simple words, the world was full on ghost money and it only took the first bank to file bankruptcy to trigger a chain of unpayable debt. This idea of ghost money was an inspiration to create Bitcoin: money that can absolutely be anything but ghost. After the 2008 bubble was under control, Bitcoin -1.06% found its way into the public. Even if it wasn't as accessible, due to regulations put in place after 00 and 08, as well as the intrinsic difficulty of joining the market, the rise wasn't shy. With confidence of having found the bottom, people bought the dip. Then came 2011, when some after-effects of 08 hit France's credit ratings, subsequently spreading to the rest of Europe and hitting the nerve of the US as well. The slump didn't last long, but it can't be ignored. Moving forward we find the 4th financial crisis: the rise and fall of emerging markets and oil 0.48% price crash. Still an after-effect of 08, these two events are intertwined. After the global economy picked up pace again post-08, countries like Russia and China experienced a "catch-up" rally. Anyone in the industrial and engineering sectors will quickly understand why oil 0.48% prices would be so relevant in this context. However, like any explosive (un intended) run, some pullback happens after the economy overshoots its actual capacity. It was during the start of 2014 that the demand for oil 0.48% pulled back significantly. Unlike other commodities , oil 0.48% has its own economic category, since it basically fuels the world. The 2014 fall was cemented when Russia invaded the Ukrainian border, bringing international sanctions that strongly affected its GDP. All of these things together incited an exit from EM currencies and stocks into the dollar. During this period, the Fed rose interest rates to keep a balance between the dollar and the stock-market-turned-safe-haven. Near the end of 2015 things finally settled down, and the "Golden Bull" kept running up. Most of you will be familiar with the 5th financial crisis of 2018, lead by the Turkish lira. This was accompanied by further concerns raised by Argentina, Brazil, India, and South Africa. It was shortly before this began that Trump's administration opened the doors for a trade war. A trade war with China is sure to hit the stock market. It's obvious to anyone with eyes and has read "Made in China". Almost a year after the talks began, the dust has settled. The EM mentioned above haven't fully recovered, but the panic has gone down a lot, including the extreme talks of a war. That brings us to today. If the aforementioned economies continue their way, and Powell does take the global situation into account, we could see buyers relaxing on the dollar and letting investors move back into financial assets. My personal belief is that the overall situation has tranquilised, and buying stocks and crypto at this point would classify as buying the dip. Of course, I do not have a crystal ball, and for all I know Italy may lash out and trigger some panic across the eurozone. I'm not a hedge fund manager, and neither is anyone of you. None of your ideas or charts will move the market, and getting angry at other users for disagreeing will get you nowhere. Bitcoin -1.06% halvings are mostly insignificant. Hashrate wars are short term. Protocol exploits and exchange hacks impact the slope, but not the direction. Let me know if I incorrectly narrated some historical event, and I will gladly rectify.
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by UnknownUnicorn1038536
6
Beyond the technical analysis. BCHUSDWell, I'm just say all of your indicators have the probability of fail. And now. It's the critical time of both the momentum and volume indicator to both fail. And your chart, your lines drawn by your hand. They all fail. The trendline you drawn is usually invalid. So it's fail. Through it may useful. But now. Anything seems not useful. It's the hardest situation for normal indicator. Then I want to do the cycle analysis. And result is I failed too. It just a big mess. I just run into the mess and can't find the cycles. The cycles you see in this chart is analyzed by me. Manually. Then in my manually analysis. I failed many times at least 3-4 times. It just looks weird. I never see this head-shoulder pattern in TRUE CYCLE. The cycle seems not change. But my thought of this pattern is never same as before. Because when the sharp decline break the L-shoulder. WTF it is. It just in mid-channel time. It's a little hard to believe that. I believe it's that time. If I'm not analysis it wrong. Time analyis is so hard. I decide to do this on BCH and not other coins. WHY? Well. Because it's just looks hard. You guys should choose the easy mode and not do hard mode on the realm of this industry. Like I already said. The mid-channel pause is come. And now It's gone. The pause will end and price movement should continue. It's will gone. Within hours. But will it have another rally? The answer is ofcourse. On this down trend after the head-shoulder pattern. Didn't price always rally on time? It just their strength is small. The fld is here. you can use it to help you to decide what situation is. But now I believe you guys do long position must be cornered. You will lost money. If my analyze is not wrong. Trend will resume soon. So whatever your position is. Just keep safe. The safe is no.1 thing in Gann rules too. And another one is never open position without definite indicator. Which is you should only trade in very high safe and high profit area. It's hard both to newbie and old trader.
BShort
by c073
1
ETHERIUM, LONG TERM GREAT BUYING OPPERTUNITY.Hello traders! What we are seeing currently in alts market is the last stage of "despair" forming. This means the best buying oppertunity for a long time is coming/has come. I am looking at Etherium and it's looking great for a long term buy in now. 85%+ correction from ATH looks like we are in the last stage before slowly starting a new CYCLE. What i recommend is to buy with NO MARGIN or LOW MARGIN if you know what you are doing. We could still go lower you never know but anything bellow 230 looks good for long term. You need to hold for month's/years. BUY IN BUY ZONE! BE PATIENT! Could give alot of profit (100x potential) but could also give 0 if Etherium dies, you decide if you want to enter or not.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by Nirland
Speechless on $XEM. A Proven Fundamental That Last Longer!I love to see projects that has survived from many challenges. Just like XEM. One of the oldest projects that still stand strong. Even, currently, they're working with Pundi X and creating NPXSXEM! You can say the team is down to earth to admit they're in need of strong partnership or in other words they need to be ready of any challenges ahead and be open minded for every opportunity around. Above all, I'm watching XEM progress and i can see there is a bright future for the team head if the team keep making a steady progress. Look at the chart, pretty much lovely for the R:R ratio.. and Fibonacci is available for you who look for mid-term targets. I'm not swing trade XEM, I kind trend trade. It's better strategy on XEM and not cost me a lot of energy :) So, what are you waiting for? the blue arrow says good to get in! If all of these ideas I posted helps you, give them thumbs up, shares, comments and follow me. Thanks a lot!
Long
by blockchaindedi
Reason Why I Believe 2019 Will Not MoonHi Guys, Long time no post but so far much of the crypto market has been much too stagnant for my liking. I just want to post this to express why I havent showed much interest lately and why I believe in 2019 we will not see any mooning; or at least to previous highs of 2017. For my fundamentals in technical analysis, I believe markets move in cycles. Its a proven theory and we are experiencing it as of right now with the stock market's 10 year cycle. We look at one of bitcoin's most pivotal points and the most notable one was 2013's ATH when it reach $1000. If we mark 2013's ATH to 2017's ATH, then we can obviously see the market cycles every 4 years and we are in the first year of its declining path. Is this bad new for Bitcoin? Yes and No? Lets look at the 2nd cyclical line below(Pink) that is biyearly. In 2013's decline from $1000, we saw it hit its all time low of $150 within the first year. If we're following these cyclical lines, the worst part of the decline in our 4 year cycle happens in the first year. So right now we would be at the point where we've already hit bottom or worse is yet to come, worse being $3000 Bitcoin. So there you have it, why 2019 will not be a bullish year to my belief and a warning to all of what is to come. Cheers!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by WaisTrades
7
BCHUSD Support will be penetratedAs you can see I'v already spotted the resistance area on chart. Don't be fooled by indicators. Now The gann square is here. 5d 10d measure time. 1/2 is from my silly use of gann line. IDK what it is so it's a mysterious spot. Seems it just a cycle. Then we should know that The gann angle is a measure tool ;-) It's must not be the resistance speed line. The speed line is just divide price by some ratio. But gann square is called the time & price calculator. I'm still not sure what 1:1 line means and how to correctly put it.
BShort
by c073
Aragon $ANT is Ready! Just Need to Ride The Trend! But...39,609,524 total supply with 29,102,723 on the circulating, Aragon lets you freely organize and collaborate without borders or intermediaries. Create global, bureaucracy-free organizations, companies, and communities. Aragon organizations are not only great because they are decentralized, global and unstoppable. They will also benefit from the Aragon Network, the world’s first digital jurisdiction. But even so, I don't think that this project is quite relevant to the market since the complexity of their project might just hard to be understoon for newcomers, so we need to take longer time to actually see the relevancies of the project towards certain condition of status quo where the project can massively growing. Judging from the chart I bet this is quite predictable for the cycle on the cryptosphere. But even so, i'm still neutral at this. Judging from the fact that this project is not relevant yet for me and the token even at this low is quite expensive for me. But we'll see. For those who want to speculate, you might put sell orders on the fibonacci lines that i draw. The only mover of the price i think the reversal of crypto market as a whole to more bullish phase. We're sitting side way like this, money will flow into bluechip project like XLM, BTC and some others. But again, we'll see. ************************************************************************* If all of these ideas I posted helps you, give them thumbs up, shares, comments and follow me. If you have a suggestion, just fill in the comment sections or message me. Looking forward to hear from you all. Thanks a lot! ------------------------------------------------------------------------- www.tradingview.com Rules: #1 Always obey tradingview.com house rules #2 Always read the description #3 Don't spam on the comment section #4 If you wanted to request my opinions about a coin/token just give 10 likes on my published charts and I will do it the day or two after #5 My opinions are not financial advice, follow it at your own will and your own risk #6 Together, let's build a better community on this platform -------------------------------------------------------------------------
by blockchaindedi
Why 2020 is guaranteed bull-run?Hey Everyone, this is my first idea on Trading View, I am happy to share my thoughts, experience and conclusions to everyone and hopefully bring more value with my knowledge. Feel free to debate with me and spark fun, friendly and constructive discussions. Everything here is my opinion and not financial advice, I am not shilling anything or coin and this is merely my TA. Why 2020 is guaranteed bull-run? I have historical evidence that may prove this which has been broken down into 3 screenshots. Each screenshot is a chart that dates back to 2014, 2017 and everything forward. Screenshot #1 2014 - We see a strong support at $215. This is the same as the 6k we are experiencing now. Also, hit an all-time high in Q4 of 2014 with $1168. This is the same as the 20k ATH -0.17% in 2017. Then the big pullback started triggering the bears for 2014. This also created the strong red downtrend triangle. Yellow circle on 9th 1.81% July 2016 indicates the BTC 0.18% halving (block rewards went from 25 BTC 0.18% to 12.5 BTC 0.18% ). Every time there is a BTC 0.18% halving it triggers a huge pump which is a sign for a bull run. The halving deflates the BTC 0.18% production causing EACH COIN to become more scarce and rare, therefore, each existing and individual BTC 0.18% increases in value. Unlike fiat currency, less money is being printed in the context of bitcoin 0.18% , this goes back to the basic economics of supply and demand. The green ovals is a highlight of an uptrend. This is a sign of history repeating itself. However, I do realise October 2013 had no halving. This is most likely due to fundamentals. During this time, I believe many things were happening during this time for example. MTGOX was very successful and hitting a new milestone. "by 2013 and into 2014 it was handling over 70% of all bitcoin 0.18% transactions worldwide, as the largest bitcoin 0.18% intermediary and the world's leading bitcoin 0.18% exchange." - WIKIPEDIA. Another reason during this time could be, the dark web community discovering a use case for BTC 0.18% . e.g. using BTC 0.18% as an online currency to buy and sell drugs and so on, you get the idea. This might explain why BTC 0.18% will never die because there will always be a thriving economy around the dark web. The blue ARC demonstrates the natural cycle of a bear market to a bull market. Screenshot #2 2017 There is an unbreakable support at 6k just like 2014's support at $215. I am also assuming there will be a very strong resistance at ATH -0.17% 20k based on previous data and statistics of 2014. Once again we do see another big red downtrend very similar to the 2014's triangle. This is known as the descending triangle as what most people would call it. The orange circle indicates where we are standing right now, breaking the red trendline/triangle. The blue circle on 12/12/2018 (blockchainwhispers.com) indicates bakkt entering the crypto market which might trigger a bull market earlier than expected, resulting in the purple ARC playing out. If not, disregard it and I believe the blue ARC will play out, a bull market will be forced by the 2020 BTC 0.18% halving. Screenshot #3 Overview This TA does not calculate the approval of ETF. When the ETF eventually gets approved, there is a high possibility of BTC 0.18% going into bull-market. This is just an overview of everything I have been analyzing technically and fundamentally, If anyone has any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments. I hope you everyone takes a look at my points and maybe you extracted some value from it. Thank you for reading, until next time. Connect with me: Twitter: twitter.com Discord: CryptoZealot#1456
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoZealot
$AEON Pump is Ready. See The Possibility of Pattern Here!$AEON was quite hyped among twitter community back then the earliest of this year. AEON is a coin with specifications below: PoW algorithm: CryptoNight-Lite Max supply: ~18.4 million Block reward: smoothly decreasing Block time: 240 seconds Difficulty: retargets at every block Right now it has 15,831,459 on circulating supply, but not quite volatile and liquid, because as you can see on the recent coinmarketcap.com it's volume only $2K-3k at the current moment. So careful and patiently waiting and spread the buy orders if you willing to jump in. There are 4 lines that i draw for selling targets. Two of them from the bottom are the most realistic targets while the others just for small bag to go to moon. ************************************************************************* If all of these ideas I posted helps you, give them thumbs up, shares, comments and follow me. If you have a suggestion, just fill in the comment sections or message me. Looking forward to hear from you all. Thanks a lot! ------------------------------------------------------------------------- www.tradingview.com Rules: #1 Always obey tradingview.com house rules #2 Always read the description #3 Don't spam on the comment section #4 If you wanted to request my opinions about a coin/token just give 10 likes on my published charts and I will do it the day or two after #5 My opinions are not financial advice, follow it at your own will and your own risk #6 Together, let's build a better community on this platform -------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALong
by blockchaindedi
Financial Market Introduction 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Financial Market Introduction 101 a) Market participants Market Participants include those parties that are involved in the operations of investment companies. Their control in the market is necessary and they should be well aware of the changes in the market. 1. Brokers and dealers handle trade activities between the buyers and sellers of currencies by charging a fee. They are the crucial part of the FOREX market, which acts as a medium between buyers and sellers. 2. Investment advisers are individuals who provide investment advice to investors by issuing reports regarding the analysis of investment securities. 3. The investor is one of the main participants of the financial market as funds are allocated to them as a capital to gain financial returns in future. 4. A central bank is one of the monetary authority and it regulates the state's currency, interest rates and money supply. Performance of the commercial banking system is also overviewed by the Central bank of respective countries. b) The Trading Market Trading market is a place where trading of currency and securities are done. The market includes brokers and investment experts who provide active services as traders on the basis of their education and knowledge regarding the market. They take investment decisions on the basis of different trading methodologies and data from past years to determine the most profitable investment. c) The Best Time to Trade Best time during the year Previous yearly records show that October and September are considered as the best months to invest in the FOREX. The main reason is due to the price bumps, which usually arises during the month of November and December, due to the seasonal changes. Best time during the Month The best time of the month to invest in the FOREX is during the first five and last five days of the month. The fact was illustrated in research conducted by Professor Ogden’s, which determines different types of investment return that are paid in the last first few days of the month. This "regularity of payments" can enable the investors to generate profit on their investments. 1. Municipal bonds interest payments are made up to 90% 2. 70% of corporate bonds principal payments 3. Preferred stock dividends are paid up to 65% 4. 45% of all common stock dividends. d) Market Cycles Market cycles are considered as the key to determining the maximum returns. The market cycle can be divided into 4 phases: Accumulation Phase • The accumulation phase arises after the market decline and experienced traders start to buy after figuring that the worst position of the market is ended. • At this time period, currency price valuations are pretty enough that they can play an essential role in profit generation. However, in this stage, prices are flattered and every seller in the market knows that the buyer will get a healthy discount. Mark-up Phase • A Mark-up stage the market stability moves forward towards the higher market moves. During this time media stories usually determine that the worst period of trading is over, however, increase in unemployment can arise during this period. • At the maturity of this phase, investors use bandwagon because of their fear regarding the decrease in market prices. A bandwagon is a group including technicians who analyses the market prices to recognise the changes in market direction and sentiment. The Distribution Phase • Within this time period, sellers dominate the market. The bullish market sentiments can turn the market cycle towards the mixed sentiment. Prices in this phase stay locked, which can last for some weeks and months. • Even the timing models do not flash any signals to buy the currency. This phase can be affected due to the bad economic news or adverse geopolitical event. Mark-Down Phase • This stage can be most painful for the investors, those who still hold their previous FOREX reserve can get huge losses, as they would have to sell them even at the lower prices at which they have bought the currency. • However, this phase determines the buying signals to the early innovators, which can enable them to generate returns in future once the prices got higher. This stage also demonstrates that it is not the good period to sell the FOREX. e) Days of the Week 1. Throughout the whole week, Monday is considered as most the best day to buy FOREX, as the prices usually show a decline. A study conducted on "A Survey of the Monday Effect Literature" reveals that decline in the prices can be the reason of bad news that was released during the weekend. 2. Conversely, if Monday is considered as the best day to buy FOREX, Friday is determined as the most feasible day to sell it. As it is better to sell the reserve before the weekend due to changes of price decreases which can affect the profitability of investment, in case of selling it at lower prices on Monday. 3. Heading towards Tuesday trading can flourish a little. The reason behind this fact is that opinions are formed by the traders and they have started taking their positions in the market. Therefore, this can make a good day for trading in the market. 4. Wednesday shows the same kind of trend in trading followed by Tuesday or usually depicts bigger price moves and is considered as the second-best day of the week for trading. 5. Thursday, it quickens. Thursday is considered as the days when huge profits can be made by the investors. Investing in the right currency can enable the investor to generate huge profits. f) Hours of the Day Trading in the morning time is not a good idea as market prices and volumes can change roughly. It is assumed by experts that these are considered as volatile hours and several new releases can affect the investment outcomes adversely. However, trading in the middle of the day can be favourable for the investor, as prices mainly remain stable during this time period. Several time frame analysis is utilised by the investor to select the most appropriate time for trading. g) Swing Approach Swing-Traders analyses the swing chart within the day so that they can take advantage of favourable price changes in the marketplace, and this affords them the benefit of not having to watch markets continuously while they are trading. Once they find an opportunity in terms of increase in FOREX prices, they place the currency on sale and then constantly keep a check on the progress of the pricing. The approach has different optimal time frames, which include: • Daily, and Weekly Charts • 4 Hour, and 1 Hour charts...... Please let me know if you would like to know more Happy trading :) "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable" Robert Arnott
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
BAT on an edgeOn big timeframe I see grand triangle. And the price is coming close to upper trendline of it. Looking very appealing. But in fact chances that BAT will leave this triangle now are not so big. It almost lost momentum on the way up and starting to cover second half of its cylce so we might expect it start to fall. Still worth watching. Will it breakthrough? I don't know. Volume is pretty big and surely there is a lot of money pushing the price out. What I am sure about is that once the price leave this trianle it will rocket to the moon so that triangle look very very small (in future). Nearest target would be ~6000. P.S. Since my previous forecast worked out so well I'll share a link for it here - Please push "like" if you like my work.
by WiseAnalyze
DCR may not be that bad as it looksJust in case you haven't seen below is Decred chart from Bittrex. I had many SR lines there, that made it look dirty, so I hidden them. But there were also cycles and I can tell you that now is the beginning of a new one. Here at Binance at smaller timeframe we have a breakout of descending triangle and possible reverse of a trend (just very very begining). Price might not start growing too far just now but in long term it may climd an impressive mountain.
DLong
by WiseAnalyze
DASH good correction and strong support#DASH 1w On the scale of one week, we see that this market, relative to its global growth wave, has made a more than full-fledged correctional rollback. The cost fell to -91% of its peak value, where a new dense support area was found. At the moment we are still in this zone, most likely we will have a sideways movement for some time, and if support will keep the market pressure, then the bullish state of indicators of some large scales indicate a good opportunity to step higher. Dash is one of the top 10 altcoins, the growth of which often arose regardless of the movement of the global market, a very strong project with serious developments. If we consider long-term trading, the choice of this asset will be quite obvious and correct decision, since the formation of a new market cycle begins now, and the end result can bring a huge profit.
Long
by CryptoWolfsTrust
GBPUSD bullish until end of 2018, Gann and GartleyA lot of criteria is met for a 90-day reversal that will last until the end of 2018. Extremely bullish. Zones of note: 1. Bullish Gartley complete. 2. Price support around the 315-degree Square of 9 level. 3. 61.8% Gann arc. 4. Rising volume into the bottom of the swing lows. 5. Bullish Pivot between he last 3 daily candlesticks (middle bullish hammer has a lower low and lower high than the two outside candlesticks). 6. Very close to November 9th, which is the 50% level in time in the Law of Vibration time cycle. 7. The 180-day cycle (Gann wrote that these can be extended +9 days per every 90-day cycle, so the 180-day cycle and go from 180 days to 198 day). From the 2018 high on April 17th.
Long
by itsjustanalysis
1
Gold its on cycle turnDear traders. After 5 years of the cycle , Now it's time to repeat the cycle in the 6th year. Supply gold against demand on better price. From the formation of their angles and collision with the 6 year cycle, it can be concluded that gold would return back from the 1237 range. On December 12, 2018 , a better price could be bullish. So, based on this analysis, the range of buy is around 1160~1180 . Here, more details are available on the latest wave... Have a good day, Pooya Salehipour
TVC:GOLDShort
by PooyaSalehipour
1
How 'bout them Apples... Or Corn, Cattle, Cotton, Gold, Coffee. Based on my analysis I see commodities markets offering investors above average returns heading into the next decade. During the expansion of our economy from 2008, prices in the commodity market have been fairly low and producing dismal returns. This is ranging from several factors such as energy prices falling, subsidized farming, the price of precious metals collapsing, and even cyclical trends. Which we will cover later... Investing in commodities can be difficult because it covers a range of different industries not just one. Often time commodities are broken down into two groups: Hard Commodities (Gold, Silver, Rubber, Crude oil, etc.) these types of commodities are often mined or extracted from our beautiful earth. Soft commodities on the other hand are usually grown (Coffee, oranges, corn, wheat, sugar. Soybeans, etc.) Because commodities range from different sources it makes capitalizing on the investment tricky due of the prices fluctuation of goods (i.e. sugar may go up while, oil prices decline.) However, there is one indicator that can help gauge the movement of all commodities classes and that’s inflation. Inflation effects all good that can be purchase on the market, not just one- therefore leading to a rise in commodities as a whole. As a consumer, who likes inflation? When the price of goods rise it can severely dampen ones pay check. Unless, you shop at Whole Foods then you are screwed at the register before and after inflation. If you’re an investor in commodities on the other hand, rising inflation can be advantageous as one would expect a higher return as the prices of consumer goods rise. Taking a glance at the chart, we can see over the past decade as inflation began its accent from 2008 the rise in the commodity index has done the same. It is also worth noting, this is NOT a default action, but more often than none- throughout history commodity prices have moved well alongside inflation. Another factor to consider is the current administration’s stance on trade and protectionism. Bringing back jobs from overseas into the United States will definitely increase the prices of goods because of the higher production cost state side. Again- great for commodity investors and producers, bad for the overall economic well-being. As I mentioned earlier, price cycles can also play a larger role when looking to invest in commodities. Though it is heavily debated on whether cycles hold any merit in commodities-we have seen the price of commodities rise and fall at precise time intervals. Through my research I've noticed Commodity prices usually move in 10 to 15-year price cycles. The Peaks and troughs of prices have been fairly consistent and are set to gain ground in 2018. However, super cycles in commodities are nearly 50 years long and we are also seeing both short and long term cycles harmonize. Usually in this occurrence we see a sharp uptick in commodity prices that end up lasting for decades. Name one thing that can get up that fast after 50 years…I’ll wait. While there this is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to complex markets such as commodities. We believe there is empirical evidence that tells us now is the time for this asset class.
AMEX:DBC
by gardua24