Gold: cyclical analysis and turnaround datesIn our previous analysis of gold (XAUUSD) we assumed a final stab (on the bottom) and turning point around June 30th. Based on the calculations, there was a high probability that there would then be an upward movement until 05/06. will come.
From the point of view of the cyclical analysis, the movement low of June 30th and the high of July 6th were hit exactly.
The turnaround dates along with the market-specific price targets were published accordingly as part of our swing trading strategy.
Market-moving actors point the way
After the previous upward movement with a high of 1,815 USD, there was an increase in closeouts within the upper limit (red zone), which led to an immediate counter-reaction and a temporary decline. This point in time confirmed the high we were aiming for (in the current fractal). Closing any remaining long positions was our logical conclusion after the first signs of exhaustion.
Gold Price - What is the Current Forecast?
As mentioned in our analysis of June 29th, a more sideways trend is to be expected for the next few days. Of course, this statement is not set in stone, but the primary and sustained increase is not expected until July 16. If there are no major disruptions (from wherever) in the further course, a further upward movement can be expected (from July 16) until August 10 (+/-).
(Our turnaround dates have an average tolerance of 3 days. In 80% of the cases it is 2 days.)
As usual, our subscribers will receive the exact course goals and entry areas via our mailing list.
Always good trades!
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa accepts no liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice, purchase recommendations or investment brokerage.
Cycles
SERBADK possible wave C (Red Circled) not completed yet. 3/7/21SERBADK seem like 1 more led down toward around RM 0.235 to complete wave C (Red Circled)
$CNET entry PT 1.70-1.80 PT 9-10 and higherBULLISH CYPHER PATTERN, REPEATING...REPEATING...
ZW Data Action Technologies Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides omni-channel advertising, precision marketing, and data analysis management systems in the People's Republic of China. It offers Internet advertising, precision marketing, and related data services through its Internet portals, including 28.com and liansuo.com that provide advertisers with tools to build sales channels in the form of franchisees, sales agents, distributors, and/or resellers. The company also develops and operates blockchain technology-based products and services. In addition, it provides; digital business promotion; and other e-commerce online to offline advertising and marketing and related value-added technical services, as well as research and development, and other technical support services for the block chain business. The company was formerly known as ChinaNet Online Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to ZW Data Action Technologies Inc. in October 2020. ZW Data Action Technologies Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
BTC Model 1: Longer Cycles = More MoneyI believe that TA is only so useful without good research and a models to back it up. I have been investing in crypto since the 2012, when a stoner friend of mine convinced me that BTC was going to be the money of the future and an exponential growth asset. Stoned as he was, he was also a heck of a math wiz and I guess he saw the potential for this currency very early on. I bought in 5k @ ~$10. He told me don't sell till it hits 100k. I happily sold most of it at $100 right as it started going back down, excited and full of emotion. How those emotions changed in only a few months as I saw it shoot up 10 over 1k and never hit 100 dollars again....
This model is the result of learning the hard way the importance of patience, not trading on feelings, and having a plan.
I think this chart should speak for itself. The cycles are getting longer. Current price action is confirmation of this. This includes the halving cycle itself. It's not 4 years. It's not 3 years, 7 months, it's 210000 blocks. The time it takes to get there is a function of the rate of btc creation and how many machines are running and being added to the network. The second halving to the third halving took 6.91% longer than it did from between 1 and 2. This cycle will be important for determining what sort of variable we're really working with, but if we go from the implied growth rate of 6.91 we arrive at 1504 days till the next halving, 188 days more than the first halving. That's not exactly a small span of time, and plenty could happen within it.
Btc has really never went below the green trend line since the halving events started. No reason to think it will any time soon. We're still a ways off, well within range of what's expected for the mid cycle shake out. Regarding that shakeout concept, I've heard the idea that price remembers. Here on this chart you can see that play out. Very interesting where this shakeout started when you look at cycle 1, isn't it? I expect us to go up till around the 511 day mark past the halving, have another scary bump like this, and then finally ascend to the true top. This pattern will repeat and overlap until it invalidates itself and could last several halvings/decades and become very complex.
It should be noted that the only thing that took us out of the green wave was Covid, a global plague that killed tons of people. It also recovered quickly, in classic black swan fashion. I'd imagine that line is pretty safe, and that this slow bleed won't even touch it.
BTC is an asset that is capable of exponential growth. It has shown a multi phase structure in the past, and I suspect that structure will continue, and become more complex. We have seen wave 1 of 2, possibly 3. the 2016 halving cycle started to produce a third wave, though it never put in a new ATH with it. This time it will, and then produce a 4th smaller wave after that during the bear market. 100k-200k is the range I'm looking for the cycle top in. If you think the run is over, I'd suggest we haven't even gotten started. What we all just saw is what I call the attention wave, it hooks everyone back into the market and tells big money to start looking again. Then they shake out all the unprepared new guys and cowards, and push us into the parabolic phase, which only gets supported by everyone buying back into it. Sure, that rise we saw is technically parabolic... but... well.... just wait.
GOLD: The turnaround dates have been set!Cyclical Analysis on Gold (XAUUSD)
Precious metals and especially gold are undoubtedly an extremely popular speculative product.
If you look at the past trading days, on the other hand, there wasn't really anything to tear with this underlying. A certain volatility could only be found in a very small time window, which made the establishment and management of larger positions difficult or even impossible.
But don't worry, the volatility is coming back!
Turning dates of the coming days!
A calculation for the upcoming turnaround dates can be very useful at this point, as corresponding highs and lows can be determined in advance.
The low of June 18 came exactly with a tolerance of 0 days. This was followed by a reaction high, which arrived with a tolerance of one day. Next low is expected around June 30th (+/-). Means in detail: We reckon with (at least) one stitch through the lower limit level (green zone). The price will then recover for a few days and fall back into a sideways range. The massive increase is not expected until mid-July.
(Our turnaround dates have an average tolerance of 3 days. In 80% of the cases it is 2 days.)
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa does not accept any liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided.
BITCOIN Whole Picture View. 29/6/21BITCOIN possible forming an expanding ending diagonal pattern in wave c (green).. We probably now at wave (B)( cyan/light blue ) of wave 3 (Red Circled ).. P/s Unlike "wrong" Interpretation of textbook written Elliot wave theory : Inside ANY Impulsive wave e.g : 1,3,5.. There always will be "ONLY" a,b,c sub waves
MAYBANK. possible at the wave (D)(cyan) of the triangle. 27/6/21MAYBANK Possible at the Wave (D) ( Cyan/light blue ) of triangle.. AND wave B (yellow) of triangle.. Price could retrace to around RM7.50 where there is confluence of 1) Up Trend Line Support 2)Next Major Demand Zone. 3)Lower Trend line support of triangle wave B (yellow) . Before resuming its up trend toward around RM 12.00
FDAX analysis: turnaround dates and important zonesCurrent analysis of the FDAX - view in the H4 chart
After reaching the all-time high on June 14th (at 15,806 points), there was a lasting break in the upward trend channel when the turnaround date arrived on June 18. Since then the FDAX has been in a correction mode, which from the point of view of the cyclical calculation around the 25th / 28th June (+/-) should end with the formation of a low.
Since we do not act purely on turning dates within our swing trading strategy, factors such as the market environment, dominant players, chart technology and the corresponding activity zones must be included.
The areas of support and possible course targets at 15,530 and 15,430 as well as 15,290 points (green zones) are to be named as activity zones.
Only with a sustained break through the upper limit level (red zone - 15.630 / 15.656) would the current short-heavy environment clearly brighten up again.
As mentioned, our cyclical calculation is trend-setting, so that after stabilization tendencies there should be a change of direction today or at the beginning of the coming week.
(Our turnaround dates have an average tolerance of 3 days. In 80% of the cases it is 2 days.)
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa does not accept any liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided.
TOPGLOV wedge pattern probably not done yet. 20/6/21TOPGLOV price might be forming a wedge pattern which is probably at its last phase of completion also developing as a triple zig zag wave pattern W,X,Y,X,Z( Red Circled ).. the Z wave probably will be reaching at around RM3.50 ( As what JP Morgan Predicted )..which is 1) the lower trend line of the wedge pattern and also 2) the weekly 200 EMA Support line 3)The Next Major Support/Demand Zone
SP500.. FED: > = 0.05% ONRRP = < QE (Tapering). 19/6/21SP500. Instead of FED announcement of "possible" "tapering" QE on 2022/2023.. FED "actually".. increase The QNRRP ( Over Night Reverse Repo Program ) from 0% to 0.05% ( that is huge! for "just" over nite!!" ).. Where Do we think "those" "hot money" from equities etc market will flow to?!.. We "see" the "acceleration" of Gold's Price is more "aggressive" than equity market..Can it be possible for Big Players taking profits "fast" by unloading all Gold Longs positions. Before "heavy long again" for the sake of "hedging" "The Expected" coming "deep correction" from equity market?!
BTC History of Bull Market CorrectionsWeekly 25/50 EMAs play a strong role in bull market corrections.
Tested as support -> bull market consolidation
Lost as support -> bear market beginning
If BTC reclaim 42000 (green 25 EMA) -> bull market consolidation
If BTC loses 34000 (blue 50 EMA) -> bear market beginning
We keep comparing fractals BTC 2019-2021 Last April I made a comparison of fractals towards a bear market and it was carried out, we currently see a recovery but how true can it be in the face of a bullish break? We can get to have a bulltrap and come back again and double-bottom in the 30k. Otherwise, we can break well and head towards the 44-48k level in case this is done in a good way, we could visit a double top or if we draw a fibonacci extension in the medium term, go towards 100k but in the case that not If it happens, we could head towards catastrophe and visit not only again as a triple floor at 30k, but 24k at the base of our canal.