Cyclical Analysis - Heating OilIf you follow my channel, you know that I am long Heating Oil, and am looking for more entries long, based on my COT strategy setup.
Today, we look at Heating Oil through the lens of cycles. Do cycles support the COT Buy Setup?
As you will see, there is some compelling cyclical data that is supportive of the idea for Oil to rise to October 10-20, and then decline before putting in a major cyclical low in December.
Cyclesinvesting
SP500 : Bearish : Similar patterns with the pastLook carefully at April 2005, October 2007 and Today. A "Sell Off" of 20% took place. History does not usually repeat itself, but in trading the phenomenon of cyclicals exists. It's just AMAZING! What do you think?!
In addition, the levels indicated are achievable in the medium term, 2-3 months;
In recent days, this is what happened at the macroeconomic level:
1-Jackson Hole
Result: No big impact on the markets: Dow Jones or techs.
2-NVIDIA long awaited:
Result: The action disappointed and went down
Minus 9.86% in total after closing and yesterday minus 6.38%.
Cause: Delay in the delivery of new chips, among others...
Will NVIDIA always explode the ceilings, while the competition arrives: AMD, GOOGLE, etc... with more efficient chips that do not heat up.
Technically the markets are OVERBOUGHT
so a return to the 38.2% or 50% of Fibonacci would be perfect for sellers, but also for buyers who would like to buy at a lower price!
I remind you that in trading we buy the bottoms and we sell the peaks!
Rotation Games: Endless FunMarket makers control and manipulate prices and they make money all day long day after playing these games.
MMs distribute shares they have accumulated at lower prices to retail traders and Joe Investor. We hold their bag!
Once distribution of one asset is accomplished, MMs then re-accumulate it and begin distribution of other assets.
You see the same movement in and out of R2K, the small caps play the same game. Notice on days when NQ100 is weak, RUT may be strong, will move up 1% when NQ goes off 1%.
Retail needs to understand when they buy these assets at inflated prices, they are bag-holding for big money players.
41 cents challangeIt looks like we need to reaccumulate for a while before breaking 41 cents, for now XRP looks strong, momentum on daily is positive. We had early bottom where we were liquidating longs (marked with Green arrow) so I'm not expecting any lower-lows.
XRP typically creates double bottom structure on troughs but time to draw it is really limited, I personally believe that we will move down in next 2-3 days and reaccumulate.
The key to buy Bitcoin could be the long term chartBitcoin is a very singular asset, there is no other similar crypto in the world. I don’t know if it’s the future or not, but there is no alternative to Bitcoin so it’s a monopoly. Take care: A monopoly of a useless thing has a value of 0.
ETH, LTC or other tokens are not like BTC because there are companies or groups behind them. One of the key concepts in BTC are halvings, if it’s the first time you hear this be sure to understand this before you do anything else. If not, you know that halvings happen every 2 years and there is a reduction of coins and it’s harder to mine, so it’s an inflationary system.
When we look the past cycles, we clearly see that the market switch every 2 years from bullish to bearish, so it’s common to read that you should wait until 4Q 2023 to start buying again when the next cycle start. Looking at the past, we see that bullish cycles end after 2 years, but bearish cycles had 1 year of bullish sentiment and one more of flat market with some interesting rallies.
According to this simple analysis we could think that now, after 1 year of bearish market we could face the bottom in BTC/USD and would expect a 2023 with volatility but at the end flat (See previous circles in the bearish markets).
Anyway, the market is clearly bearish and we’ve not seen any bullish power yet in the short term. The idea is to monitor the shorter-term time frames to look for a good moment to start buying BTC. Follow to find out the best moments to start buying again, I’ll monitor BTC closely.
On the other hand, take care, we are facing red flags in BTC which are relevant, and we must be sure that we understand where we are:
1. The BTC capitalization , even after the fall, is MASSIVE. Moving higher will be difficult because to double the capitalization you need much more money coming in!
2. We are handling with many crises in BTC exchanges, and some are simply scam, so BTC is related now with the darkside, so it’s harder to attract investors or funds than few years ago.
3. There is no mainstream utility . This is crucial for the future, we are betting that BTC will be useful someday, but right now it’s far away from being mainstream.
4. We have not seen extreme panic, and that’s usually what creates a bottom. Maybe some other crash could lead to panic, and we could finally see a V shape end. And furthermore, we have FOMO (fear of missing out) still present so many people are still Holding losses… a last big move downwards could be the moment for the final sell off.
5. If you like Elliott waves you can easily find a pattern of 5 expansive waves. Which accomplish everything bcs wave 2-4 are different and prices do not overlap. Now, we should be in the correction phase in an A wave. On the bright side, next wave should be corrective but bullish, so we should not see new maximums, but we could easily see a rally of 100% or more.
In conclusion , I’ll keep monitoring the daily time frame to find a good entry point because as you know, if a knife is falling is better to wait until it touches the floor 😉.
Bitcoin The Year Ahead 2022-2023Bitcoin will start another impulse move upward near May 1st 2022 while racing towards a local top near July 1st, and could potentially experience its largest crash late winter of 2023. Jan-Feb 2023 could also most likely be when we witness the huge decline of the Dow/S&P500 etc...
These are based on several key planetary cycles, as I have used planetary indicators for charting aspect data by creator @NasserHumood .
EUR AUD - Selling to target, awaiting buys [Series 10]G'Day Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.
Key terms
CP - Continuation pattern
DBD - Drop Base Drop
RBR - Rally Base Rally
OP - Original price
DCA - Dollar Cost Average
FL - Fresh Levels
Monthly at current;
EUR AUD since 2017 has seen a high curve this is due to the Original level from 2009 had not been tested allowing the AUD to be considerably weak in terms of exchange rates for the Aussie.
The overall supply and demand curve offers opportunities to sell upon a "step by step" case where three points of pullbacks have allowed the buyers to reach the arrival destination.
Now the price is in a pure down sell upon a very strong curve for a departure, which means upon the fresh level of arrival, price will consolidate and create a new curve within the structure. However, trading comes with confirmations.
Since 1.96 price has developed a large data structure whereby Drop base Drop or DBD scenario has encountered. (Revert to the example below to see a side by side reference) *Fig1*
*Fig1.*
The premise is, a lot of traders when learning Imbalances and supply, demand - shows the opportunity on smaller timeframes, where price will create ranges for short term hedges and or scalpers, range traders - this will appease to all trader styles.
Weekly Chart
The weekly has shown since March 21 from the low, a reversion identifying a channel to the up and right, which has been clear with subsequent higher lows and in conjunction with this, a high curve from the previous structure, where by price had formed a regression channel against the March low.
There were to specific zones of interest where price will overcome from the Departure and look to the supply imbalance to test the fresh level it had returned from.
Fig.2 , shows the curve which was over come from the buying imbalance as well as a look into the weekly structure once breaking forming a lower high upon the retest.
This test subsequently closed below the "purple trendline" creating a new channel which is where proximal sells can be placed to "set and forget".
Fig.2
Daily chart
Awaiting the next move upon price completion;
Ultimately, still holding shorts, but will be awaiting 1.39 before closing out and looking to add once the arrival is clear using the weekly chart.
AUD will pose more pressure as the original level has not been tested yet since 2018 so, any pull back - trade with confirms upon sells, as the DBD is still relevant as a fractal upon the structure.
Keep track of commodities; for references.
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Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
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LVPA MMXXII
Saturn Square Uranus CrisisSaturn square Uranus in the sky 1929-31
Data analysis through use of the amazing planetary aspects indicators created by @NasserHumood
"The stock market crash in America on October 24, 1929 signaled the start of the Great Depression; and in November 1929 Saturn in the sky moved into orb of a square aspect with Uranus. Throughout 1930 and 1931 they formed four square aspects – on April 9, 1930, December 12, 1930, July 21, 1931 and October 17, 1931.
This is the first time in BTC history this square is taking place. The last time we saw the same square was during the 2000 .com bubble. This already gives us an indication of what will happen to the general economy, as well as the legacy markets.
To add to this even further, the last time these two (Saturn and Uranus) were in a difficult aspect was during the 2008 financial crisis. Another bubble was formed which was popped. This time it was the opposition of the two that did it.
But the problem is with BTC because we haven’t seen BTC in action during this square. So far there has been a correlation between BTC and SP500 for example and the general stock market. If one goes down, the other one goes down as well. Will it continue? We don’t know, we will have to wait and see."
Powerful Planet Conjunctions BitcoinScrolling through this chart, one can observe how powerful the 0 degree planetary conjunctions are.
Zooming out - an obvious cycle cluster pattern is revealed and sparks price action become extremely volatile, heated, electric etc...Often in the upward direction as it nears the planetary clusters, with a release and reversal of pendulum hermetic lawful revelation as the cycle nears its cool down.
Inversions are a natural law, which means nothing is to be expected to repeated identically 100% of the time. One can expect inversions to happen using a safe 10% measured estimate.
If you don't know the difference ...... you are in trouble! - Howard Marx
In the late '60s and early '70s if you didn't own the Nifty-Fifty, there was something indescribably wrong with your portfolio - or you.
The Nifty 50 stocks got their notoriety in the bull markets of the 1960s and early 1970s. They became known as "one-decision" stocks because investors were told by individuals such as University of Pennsylvania professor Jeremy Siegel that "they could buy and hold them forever."
In case anyone is interested how the "Nifty 50" fared during the bear markets of 1973-1974;
Blue Chip Performance: 1973-1974
Du Pont -58.4%
Eastman Kodak -62.1%
Exxon -46.9%
Ford Motor -64.8%
General Electric -60.5%
General Motors -71.2%
Goodyear -63.0%
IBM -58.8%
McDonalds -72.4%
Mobil -59.8%
Motorola -54.3%
PepsiCo -67.0%
Philip Morris -50.3%
Polaroid -90.2%
Sears -66.2%
Sony -80.9%
Westinghouse -83.1%
Just to recap;
... as well as;
U.S. Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP exceeded 2.75 while the Historic Norm (not the low) remains 0.78 - i.e. ~70% below current levels(!!)
www.hussmanfunds.com
U.S. Margin Debt / U.S. GDP has surpassed all previous records (by a very wide margin!), not only by nominal measures but also in relative terms!
www.hussmanfunds.com
Three White Soldiers - Hit & Run Candlesticks againHow high are we going this time ?
Take a look back to a Candlestick pattern THREE WHITE SOLDIERS plays out
Stonks reaching its local top or printers just heated up before going more brrrr ? What are your thoughts?
Cheers
ChaChain
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Disclaimer:
I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
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