Natural gas cylces- New support soon? Cycles & sentiment- work in tandem
Natural gas now moving into mid-term cycle support
Cyclestudies
Beware of the vix. I would love to dive into more depth here, but I'd really have to start doing a consistent video series for that. I've been watching time cycles which I've charted on the vix and the SPX for a while and there's a very important region coming up near the end of January.
Those unfamiliar with cycle analysis should go study it a bit as this post won't explain it much. All I'll say is there's a trough/cycle end region coming up near the end of January or very early February, on the vix. The vix charts are messy and cycles are *not* perfect in real life, which is why you have to find a date range and watch price action closely around that time.
My overall picture on the S&P500 is bearish long term still, even after all of this. However, that does not mean it won't still go through big relief rallies first.
In fact, the S&P500 is due for a relief rally, some individual stocks already bottomed last year, some are bottoming now, and some have not bottomed yet. That's the problem with stocks, and index funds, that various stocks, usually by market cap, bottom at different times, and some may start moving up while the big ones continue dragging indices down. In times like this, it is in my personal opinion (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE) that it's better to pick your own basket of stocks than to go with an index fund at this time.
Watch the cycles, they are broad ranges, but something is likely brewing in the vix by early February.
***This is not financial advice, and should not be taken as such what so ever. These comments are a reflection of my personal opinions and charting and should not be used in any way to make financial decisions. Do your own DD***
Ethereum Dominance in January and February📈 Looking at the chart of Ethereum dominance at the top, and at the same time its price at the bottom, we can see that there is a delineation of direction between 📆January and 📆February.
If dominance breaks out of this huge purple triangle, breaking through the 20% psychological resistance, the asset will either be outperforming other cryptocurrencies or falling less, depending on the context.
Staying above 17.33%, I remain optimistic.
The Anatomy of the TLT; Cycle analysis by ThestructuredThis is my dissection of the TLT chart into the classic stages of a bubble, with time cycles. Each stage is present and the TLT appears to be in a bottoming process. I'm a big fan of using Fib channels combined with time cycles, because with fib channels, you are looking for a certain line to get hit, wherever that may be, as opposed to traditional fib retracements and extensions where you are looking for exact numbers. I find that with regular fibs, price often overshoots or undershoots them, whereas using a channel, it is more so a time based touch of a line, which si why it works so well with time cycles.
Last year I had used these fib channels and cycles to find the current bottom on the TLT, which was an exact touch of the 161.8, right at a (red) time cycle trough region, and also at a strong volume profile node.
There are larger, converging cycle troughs shown which should be somewhere in the September area of 2023. It is unclear at this time whether that region will be a higher low, or 'the bottom' (assuming that the 92 area wasn't already 'the' bottom, which it might have been.
In any case, I am planning on investing this fall in that major trough zone, regardless of if price is higher or lower than it is now, when that timing region comes.
Disclaimer: These charts and posts are a reflection of my own analysis and opinions based on my own analysis. I could be wrong, nothing is guaranteed, and my posts are for educational purposes only, as they are my own pure speculation, and should not be taken as investment advice of any kind. Do you own DD!
Number of Sunspots and Inflation CYCLESHi friends
Today im going to explain about the relationship between Sunspot Numbers and Inflation rate from 1960 to now.
so lets start with inventor of this theory : William Stanley Jevons's
In 1875 and 1878 Jevons read two papers before the British Association which expounded his famous "sunspot theory" of the business cycle.
Digging through mountains of statistics of economic and meteorological data,
Jevons argued that there was a connection between the timing of commercial crises and the solar cycle.
it called 5.31-Year Cycle too.
In the stock market and in the economy, there are both natural frequencies and artificial excitation frequencies.
The four-year presidential election cycle is a great example of an excitation frequency, and it has demonstrable effects on stock prices.
The schedule of FOMC meetings 8x per year is another possible example of an artificial excitation frequency.
When a demonstrable cycle period appears that one cannot tie to some manmade excitation frequency,
then the supposition is that it is a "natural" frequency of the economic system.
Something about the economy or the market results in an oscillation on a certain frequency which may not have a good outside explanation.
Perhaps it is in how money flows. Perhaps it is in how human brains make decisions about surplus and scarcity. It is hard to know.
This 5.31-year frequency in the CPIs cycle seems to fall into that category as a natural cycle,
because the 5.31-year period does not match any known excitation frequency related to human activity nor the economic calendar.
So that makes it probably a natural frequency.
In above chart , there does seem to be a relationship between sunspots and the inflation rate.
We see lots of instances when the peak of the sunspot cycle coincided with the peak of the inflation rate.
There have been spikes in the inflation rate not tied to the sunspot cycle, such as the spike during the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74.
this examples did, interestingly, come at the halfway point of the sunspot cycle, fitting the half-period harmonic principle(5.31 year cycle).
The current rise in inflation fits both the longstanding 5.31-year cycle and the upswing in the sunspot cycle.
Solar researchers expect the current sunspot cycle rise to end in July 2025, which is 3 years from now.
But the 5.31-year cycle says a top in the inflation rate is expected right now.
That would mean seeing the inflation rate bottoming around 2025 just as the sunspot cycle is peaking.
Sometimes cycles present us with conflicts that are hard to reconcile.
The point of the 5.31-year cycle that we can take away for right now is that the inflation rate should be falling for the next ~2.2 years.
But that does not mean we get to zero percent inflation right away.
The drops take a while to unfold. Inflation is likely with us for a while, and we have to get used to that idea.
The Exit - How to take profitsToday’s content:
1. Why each exit is within 3 months?
2. Why I turn from investing to trading the US markets since Jan 2022 and onwards
If you have been following, today’s is the 6th tutorial in our Trading Series:
1. “The buy strategy”
2. “The sell strategy”
3. “Developing long & short-term view”
4. “Choosing between the time frame”
5. “The entry”
6. “The exit”
Refer to the links below or check the previous 5 videos.
E-Mini Nasdaq Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 point = $5
1 point = $20
10 points = $200
100 points = $2,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Ethereum Classic(ETC) is preparing for the fourth BIG move!As you can see on the chart that my indicator showing Ethereum Classic is preparing for the forth Big move!
The first volatility warning signal happened on June 10 with the drop of 35.90%
The second volatility warning signal happened on July 17 with the pump of 212.75%
The theird volatility warning signal happened on Oct 11 with the pump of 23.78%
The fourth volatility warning signal has been maturing.....
I am not going to predict the direction of this movement.
I will follow the trend when there is a big dark(red) or White(Green) occurs.
DEPRESSION / CYCLE LOW JUNE 2024 The Cycles and the Rhythm the early stage and why you should respect it if you were to take the fractal of 2000 peak to the low oct 2002 you would see a what and how it will match the cycles posted and have been in my own personal charts I have not shown the public
HOW A LONG CYCLE UNFOLDS IN REAL TIMEKUCOIN:INJUSDT
Above diagram is a simple graphic of a Long trend cycle.
CONTRACTION - EXPANSION - TREND.
Prices tighten into a sideways corrective environment to the point of almost stoppage (This is where the phenomena of frozen candles pre break occurs) once a fair and true value has been confirmed by the market it breaks out into an expansion phase which begins to oscillate around true value taking out highs and lows in the process before moving into a dedicated Trend phase.
In the above structure a return to value will be in play though you should await the trend phase to trade the short move back to true value or equilibrium. More experienced traders can use this cycle knowledge multi time-frame to sell the highs back to true value.
THIS KNOWLEDGE UNDERSTOOD HAS A 90% accuracy to trading via orders and 100% to active and live trade management.
Any lows under true value are buy signals and any highs over true value are sell signals.
SPY Cycle Patterns UpdateThis weekend, I spent quite a bit of time studying various rare and unique cycle patterns within my database.
Because of this new research, I can share with you the new WEEKEND trigger which setup last weekend. I suspect a bullish GAP will setup early this week with price trending substantially downward on Monday. Tuesday should represent another attempt at a top/peak in price (possibly resulting in some wild volatility Monday/Tuesday). Wednesday will represent a Reversal/Rally day - possibly extending price up into a BULL TRAP for investors. Thursday is a N/A Day - meaning I don't have any confirmed Cycle Pattern trigger for that day. Friday will be another Top/Resistance day - likely seeing the markets establish a peak in price (again) and trending downward.
Headed into the Fed week and knowing traders will be preparing for future headwinds related to futures/options expiration, this week could be full of very volatile price action. I suspect Monday/Tuesday will set the RANGE for the week and the rest of the week will trade somewhat sideways.
Follow my research. These cycle patterns have been very accurate so far.
Bitcoin dominance defined in JanuaryBitcoin dominance defines the market capitalization of BTC versus the total crypto market capitalization.
When the dominance of BTC goes up, it means that the price of BTC performs better than altcoins.
Otherwise, when it goes down, altcoins perform better.
According to vertical lines, January is a definition month.
The red lines indicate when there has been a decline in dominance, and the green lines when there has been a rise.
In the last month of January, we have an indication of a rise.
The question is whether in January 2023 dominance will continue to rise or decline.
Last phase of 80W cycle for BTCWe are in the last phase of the major 80W cycle.
The another strong band of 20W cycle has already topped out as well as 40W.
The last shorter waves are topping out keeping the chart in "stable condition"
But they will bottom out too, creating a massive nest of lows for BTC in the coming weeks.
The good news is that after this major bottom, good things will happen and we will observe 80W uptrend switching the overall structure to the bulls phase.
We keep strong and vigilant during coming turbulent weeks and preparing our cash for a proper time to get on the train.
KLCI Cycle & elliotwave analysis. 11/July/22.KLCI “based” on its cycle analysis. KLCI is still forming its expanding flat pattern in (A)(B)(C)(cyan) in wave 2 ( Red Circled) which probably ONLY completed by end of 2022 as long term cycle 8 (purple) alway reached near by the red vertical line. (Year end).
Let's Review June 9th Through June 17th On SPY Part IMany of us know what Market Cycles are but, do you understand how to trade them & what to expect?
Here with SPY on the 1hr chart. Prices entered a range from May 27th to Jun 9th. If read correctly, you should have prepped to get short on the the support break of that range.
That range was considered a distribution area & once it broke, you should expect a trend down.
At 1:30 on June 9th, that range was broken & a trend was triggered.
Traders should have got short & stayed short. On Jun 17th with the last sell climax, traders could have look to take profit & reposition for another range & trend reversal up.
1st target, if looking at the pattern should be the bottom of the bull channel. If looking at price, the 1st target could be the GAP between 383-389.
The range from May 27th to June 9th should have been a signal to look for short entries either inside of the range or once it broke.
Trend reversals can be some of the best & easiest trades to spot, especially on the hourly charts.
The Future of BitcoinThis chart does not focus on price predict or trend reversals. Its aim is to showcase the extent to where we are in the current Bitcoin cycle. As we know it the much known Bitcoin 4 year phase may lapse into an extended repeating cycle.
Take a note of much drawn out patterns, indications True Strength Index (TSI) to Highs/Lows, timespan, Elliott's Wave theory and Fib retracement levels. Everything drawn out here has seemed to fit like a glove.
Phase 1:
the Birth of Bitcoin (Wave 1) most commonly know as the impulse wave, no one knows about it, it's a Ponzi, it doesn't retrace much and people find it hard for the perfect time to get in.
Phase 2:
After sharp correction, this is the time where price levels out, smart money and early adopts have their time to invest. Often known as the fomo period for most after thinking its too late.
Phase 3:
Additional another sharp correction, following sharp changes, zigzags and ups/downs this wave is the one most retail investors start to get involved. There is more eyes on the bigger picture. it's highly fluctuated by sentiment and manipulation.
Phase 4:
The final correction (est. 70%). This marks the beginning of the corrective sequence. Often thought of as a continuation or retracement (A), however can trap new investors (B). Sentiment turns, the realisation flips and most think this is the end (C)
and so then the cycle repeats again...
Is it a Ponzi or an opportunity of a lifetime?
For Perspective take a look at the Amazon and Apple chart
Key takeaways:
- TSI marks the low and tops and where we currently are there is yet to see a bottom in sight. Referring to my other charts indicates Oct we should see a bottoming coming into fruition.
- The expanded flat correction (after wave 5) this correction does not need to meet the normal 80-85% correction to downside, and given that each top of BTC we have never come back to our previous ATH can be valid. This also adds validation to the ending BTC cycle 1. Also each ATH has also been a lot less in ratio so this equates to a reduce correction % as that of previous corrections.
- All ATHs have also met their respected Fib expanded levels 2017 -2.618, 2021 - 1.618
- Shape Corrections have played out less over time with 2021 showing a longer drawn out correction. And this also meets with the next Bitcoin halving cycle May-June 2024
BTC LONG VIEW CHARTThis chart is so simple but in the same time so good.
In the last bear cycles:
-When the price droped below the 150 WMA (Weekly Moving Average) (blue) and tested the 200WMA (yellow) we had a couple of months in consolidation between this 2 WMA;
In this time of consolidation between the 2 WMA we also had an RSI indicator with oversold values (Order block on the RSI indicator);
And on 2018 bear market we had a retrace to the 0,382 level of FIB retracement , precisely where we are right now.
Curiosity
As well on 2014 Bear market we have now a falling wedge pattern in formation (Bullis pattern).
On 2014 the price broke down the support line of the falling wedge, Eventrough in the followng weeks the price came back to the falling wedge.
Which is curiously the same thing that is happening ritght now, the price broke the falling wedge pattern and next i believe , given the market analysis above and the similarity with previous bear cycles we are close to a bottom and in a Exelent time/zone for accumulating Bitcoin
Bitcoin Long-Term Cycles - Pullbacks and ExtensionsI put this model together last week prior to leaving for a trip. I considered publishing it then, but, go busy with my trip. I post it now with no changes over what I put together last week. Note: This model is based on the first 3 cycles of Bitcoin halvings where price takes a dump (bear market) then finds support and rallies to new highs. This occurs just before (dump) and just after (rally) a halving event. I have no idea if this "pullback-then-extension" model will hold up in the current cycle—cycle 4. I have no idea if some of the "duration" patterns shown here that are based on number of days up/down will follow patterns in prior cycles.
Here's a short overview of the model.
Cycles 1 and 2 fit the model where after a .70 pullback (as marked in the chart) Bitcoin surged to the 1.25 extension.
Cycle 3 had the pullback to to the .618 before bouncing upward.
Cycle 4 (current cycle) had a very minor bounce at .70 then fell to .618 where we are currently (as of June 16th). Should price close below this .618 level we are in unchartered territory.
The lowpoint from which I measure for the current cycle is always based on the low point from the prior cycle prior to the rally move. Again, prior cycles have shown this inflection point to occur around the. .70 to .618 pullback.
In each cycle there's several minor .70 pullbacks and extensions which I don't show here in an effort to minimize clutter. I debated whether to not include the time durations as well to prevent clutter. However, understanding the duration of a move is critically important, I leave it to the reader to try to spot duration patterns based on this analysis.
The white price projection lines I drew in the current cycle were drawn last week with "hope" that a .70 bounce was in play but also showing the reality that further downward movement to 0.618 was entirely possible (as occurred in 2018). I have no idea if this model will hold up or if Bitcoin and crypto is doomed.
TIME CYCLES ETH MARKET DROP18:00 UTC-4 Markets Drops. What time cycles can you find? Comment below if you so care to share.
NQ - Very strong bullish reaction to the fresh triple supportThis morning three cycles simultaneously bottomed and turned up.
Their combined power is what produced that strong rally
ES: a triple resistance stopped the rallyAccording to JM Hurst, the founder of Cycle theory, several cycles tend to bottom simultaneously. Those points should be aligned with important lows on stock price charts.
You can see that every time three cycles (x3 supp) or four cycles bottom (x4 supp) price turns up strongly.
That happens because when a cycle reaches its bottom it immediately turns up and starts pushing price up.
When several cycles turn up in unison their upward pressure gets combined.
This is why tracking points when several cycles find bottom provide lucrative entry points
How To Spot Economical Cycles Top Using [DXY- SPX and VIX]
Hi Everyone
In this video I want to share an overview of the importance of economic cycles for traders and investors and how we can use Trading View charts
with no indicators to figure out key economic signals on the following charts:
DXY tops for the end of previous bear markets
VIX normal ranges vs Bear cycles ranges
The Dow Jones Industrial average is another key chart with SPY charts because everyone has a 401K retirement account these days and people are use to the headlines of the Dow Jones Industrial Average new highs and new lows to shift emotionally between despair and exuberance. It's not unusual for people to throw in the towel just as the market begins to rise in the next economic cycle.
As a student of the markets, you need to know when it's time to load up on bargain priced assets and ride the next cycle up and when it is time to slowly sell or fade into the tops of the markets and avoid the downturns.
Are we in a normal healthy correction 10-20% or are we heading toward the Great Depression type 50% correction from the top? These charts will help you answer the question.
Mastering the market and economic cycles is the key to becoming wealthy in all asset classes - Stocks, Real Estate, and Cryptos
Hope it helps...
@Marc
BTC bottom either 8.9k or 19k. Advanced data from previous cycleScenario 1
Scenario 1 is we make cup and handle above 19k, then back to near ATH next year, this is possible since rsi is already oversold, but, btc.d shows more dump can come since alts are overvalued
Scenario 2 is we retest 9 to 10k then resistance around 30k. It would make most sense, but I think we got a good support at 19k.
I am getting this data from previous bull runs.
Greetings, Dia
Local Tops and Bottoms BTC (future+historical)The Teal lines mark local times (future and historically) and the pink lines mark local bottoms.
