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Apple - High & Intermediate Term AnalysisToday, we look at Apple utilizing a variety of techniques: Divergence, MAC & Cycles. We need to keep an eye on the quarterly, monthly & weekly bearish divergences that are occurring. They have not yet triggered, so bulls don't have to worry (yet). But we must keep our eyes on these divergences, because if they trigger, they imply significant downside ahead for Apples share value. We take a look at the MAC and see that there is a case to be made for some further upside this week, and based on todays state of the indicators, longs are favored on any pullbacks to the MAC on the Daily chart. Cycles show a bit of a mixed bag of possibilities. I'm most interested in the Decennial pattern and the APZ's. Let me know if you have any questions.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Tradius_Trades
Nasdaq-100 Index. The Psychological Aspects of Round NumbersIn the complex dance of commerce and finance, price tags play a key role in influencing consumer decisions. While it’s a fairly common psychological assumption that every penny and cent counts when it comes to getting the best deal, human psychology often deviates from this linear logic. In this educational post, we explore the irresistible appeal of round numbers, and how they often trump other considerations when making transaction decisions. The Irresistible Attraction to Round Numbers We do often believe that every penny counts in our transactions. However, research shows a striking deviation from this assumption. In scenarios where people choose a price, such as tipping at a restaurant or donating to beloved author or website, they disproportionately choose round numbers — like $ 5, $ 10 or $ 20 — far more than would be predicted by chance alone. One could argue that this is due to the rejection of change, a reluctance to waste time on small change, and the unwillingness to bother with complex mathematics. However, even in cases where the exact bill is not an issue (e.g., cashless card payments), the preference remains. For example, diners faced with a non-round bill (for example $ 34.67) are more likely to give non-round tips ($ 15.33), but only so that the total is a neat round number ($ 50). Why do we prefer round prices? And what is the psychology behind it? 1) Cognitive simplicity: The human mind is programmed to simplify and seek simplicity. Numbers like 10, 50, or 100 inherently feel “cleaner” and less chaotic than 17, 62, or 84. This desire for neatness gives us a sense of accomplishment. 2) Perception of quality: The marketing world has long capitalized on this preference for round numbers. Brands strategically associate round prices with premium quality. On the other hand, odd prices like “29.99” or “34.99,” while ubiquitous, subconsciously signal here's a discount or a bargain. 3) This preference is not limited to prices. People exhibit this tendency to round in other aspects of life as well. Our repeated exposure to round numbers is common in a variety of contexts, both in everyday life and during financial transactions, which contributes to an unconscious bias toward them. This cognitive ease with round numbers further perpetuates the preference. The stock market’s behavior and its fluctuations around these significant, round numbers is not a coincidence in general; there is a psychological explanation. Market Psychology of Round Numbers When the market reaches round numbers such as 500 or 1,000, 2,500 or 5,000, 10,000 or 20,000, it attracts the attention of both active traders and casual investors who may not even be actively following the market. As in everyday life, people often use round numbers as thresholds for making investment decisions. For example, some may decide to enter the market if a major index such as the Nasdaq-100 has exceeded 10,000, or they may decide to sell some of their stocks if the Nasdaq-100 has reached 20,000. These round numbers act as magnets for sellers as they mark important milestones given the relatively high rarity of a round number. If the market has the potential to move higher, it first needs to absorb the selling pressure around the round numbers and establish equilibrium before continuing its move higher. If we analyze the market behavior over the last decades, we will see clear patterns at round numbers. Let us take a closer look at a few examples. 1) Indian Stock Index, Sensex BSE:SENSEX Sensex, one of the major market indices in India, has its share of round number syndrome. For example, when Sensex reached 10,000 points in Q1 2006, it experienced significant market activity, with the index fluctuating by as much as 30 percent in Q2. The same phenomenon occurred at multiples of 10,000. Thus, at 20,000 points, which the Indian market reached at the end of 2007, the index collapsed by more than 60 percent over the next 4 quarters of 2008. Later the 20,000 mark has been reached again in the second half of 2010, and the index again suffered a decline of more than 20 percent during 2011. Later Indian stock market index reached the 30,000 mark in the first quarter of 2015, and its led to a price decline of more than 20 percent in the next 4 quarters, while 40,000 mark in the fourth quarter of 2019 - led to the market decline by 30 percent on the wave of COVID-19 sales. 2) Gold market OANDA:XAUUSD As in the previous example, round numbers often become key points of congestion for Gold market, when the market tries to break even higher, but the forces of buyers and sellers may be unequal. For example, spot Gold reached the $ 1,000 mark for the first time in the Q1 2008, which, following the logic discussed above, led to sales and 30 percent decrease. Gold spot buyers have tried a lot to reach $ 2,000 mark in 2011, but it brought the market down by 45 percent over the next 5 years. There were also a lot of unsuccessful attempts to jump above $ 2,000 in 2020-2022. Finally Gold spot surged above $ 2,000 only in Q4 2023, its led to further price increase, up to 2500 US dollars per ounce. 3) US stock index, Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX The Nasdaq-100 index approached the 10,000 point mark for the first time in Q1 2020, which could have contributed to the sell-off. In fact, this is what happened, as the market then plunged by more than 30 percent in March 2020, and only thanks to monetary support measures and the reduction of US interest rates to almost zero, the index was able to break the 10,000 barrier by the end of Q2 2020. Reaching the 20,000 mark by the market index in Q2 2024, as we see, again leads to increased turbulence in US tech stocks and talk of imminent monetary easing by the Fed. Final Thoughts 1) It is important to note that round number syndrome and increased seismic activity near rounds number is a short-term phenomenon. Once the selling pressure is absorbed, the market resumes its movement based on other factors and develops independently of these already passed milestones. 2) Understanding the market behavior at round numbers can provide valuable information to investors. These round numbers act as psychological triggers for investors, driving their decision-making processes. 3) Understanding this phenomenon allows investors to make more informed choices and understand the short-term fluctuations that occur during these stages.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Pandorra
EUR USD - Technical print G'day, Master Key for zones Black = Yearly Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video. Daily trading range Weekly chart Monthly chart Quarterly chart Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
Cyclical stocks & 5 elements (e.g : Palm Plantation) 22/2/22Today not just "The Sun Calendar" is all 22 BUT Lunar calendar day also 22) = - The Practice of Chinese Core Five Elements Concepts for picking up Cyclical stocks ? Showing here is Malaysia Plantation Index ( Mainly Palm Oil Plantation ) .. It seem like The Index showing "up trend" when entering "Water Element" months of Lunar Calendar? Why?! Water "Growing/Generating" Plants? Show logical?... AND it show "down trend" when entering "Metal Element" months.. I'm puzzling why?! Metal " Carving/ Counteracting" Woods?.. Show logic?..Hmmmm... Then How about "Earth Months".. Look like "side ways/no obvious trend" market.. Why? Plants need to "use/consume" its "energy" to Hold the "earth", Stopping "landslide"?....Hmmmm. How about Glove Stocks?! Either Rubber Tree, or Nitrile, Latex, and Vinyl Gloves under "wood elements" category.. Hmmm.. Look like the next up trend going to be "glove stocks""...
MYX:PLANTATION
by SteveTan
Bitcoin to 130k according to Cyclic Theory AnalysisEvery four years bitcoin experiences a bull run. Typically, in Q4, BTC will shoot up in price equal to half the percentage increase from the previous bull run. This last quarter is looking to be around 150-200%. I am expecting BTC to hit around 113-130k. The gap is from taking data from other charts along with my own. Once BTC hits the price target, the correction will ensue and altcoins will experience their rally typically hitting cyclic all time highs again plus an addition 200% or so. I am not in bitcoin, but I do keep track of it because it affects other coins. Ur boi in ZCash. I will show my chart on it soon!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Gknight0625
5
PYP room to extend gain for at most a couple of daysIn order to understand the timing wave analysis is represented as an add on of the technical one. The most prominent daily swings identify a wave (cycles). Two types of cycles represent the chart; inverted cycles and index ones. Index cycles are cycles that start with a minimum and end with a minimum that might be higher or lower compared to the starting one. W: weekly cycle (6 to 11 days) W+1: biweekly cycle (12 to 21 days) W+2: Monthly cycle (22/23 to 43 days) W+3: three months cycle (44 to 86 days) W+4: half-year cycle (87 to 166) W+5: annual cycle (167 to 336) Each of the cycle has a minimum and maximum duration Inverted cycles are cycles that start with a maximum and end with a maximum that might be higher or lower compared to the starting one. Wi: inverted weekly cycle (6 to 11 days) W+1i: inverted biweekly cycle (12 to 21 days) W+2i: inverted Monthly cycle (22/23 to 43 days) W+3i: inverted three months cycle (44 to 86 days) W+4i: inverted half-year cycle (87 to 166) W+5i: inverted annual cycle (167 to 336) The analysis: We are at the end of W+2i inverted cycle as its maximum duration is 43 days (43 daily candles) therefore I am expecting as best scenario again 2 days of raise, minimum another day of raise (today). At the end of this cycle, another inverted cycle monthly cycle will start with a temporary downtrend. The red swings are the controls to the raise resistance. Their break is fundamental to continue the uptrend The purple one is our checkpoint in case of a downtrend. Its break and time within this occurs will tell us more whether to opening or not a short position.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by TRADOMICS_
Get in the Zone: the Lotto ZoneIf any of you are up for a gamble, this is a good play for a short position / long puts. AZO has had a monster rally and is starting to wind back to some pre-pandemic support levels I believe. Now this is a good company, but the stock will get caught up in a mess of short-term declines in the Retail Trade sector and this one has far to fall and a well-defined area of support to work off of. Some solid indicators are saying this is well over-bought and flashing the sell signal. This means we may have reached the peak of it's new consolidation area and will begin grinding down to find the bottom. Thankfully we have a triple-top to tell us where that bottom will ultimately be. Options are expensive for shares this pricey, and bid-ask spread is huge, so maybe just an old-fashioned short is your ticket.
NYSE:AZOShort
by PreferredStonk
SPX's P/E Probability game Average crash 42 % Median crash 37 %All Major crashes since 1902: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year % Crash P/E@ Beg. P/E@ End Days lasted 2020 35 % 26 19 28 2007 57% 21 120 490 2000 50% 27 29!!! 763 1987 36% 21 13.7 28 1980 28% 9 9 609 1973 49% 18 7 609 1968 37% 18 13 483 1961 29% 22 16 147 1937 57% 16 8 1855 1929 84% 18 9 973 1916 37% 7 !!! 14! 1708 1909 28% 13.65 14.54 1764 1906 37% 13 9 637 1902 29 14 11 364 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Extra Info: All reading Above 21 P/E ------------------------------------------- April, 19 - Presents March, 15 - October, 18 crash November, 07 November , 09 crash June , 97 January , 04 bull August, 91 November, 93 bull July 87 July 87 crash March, 61 November 61 crash April 46 July 46 crash May 33 March 34 correction October 21 December 21 bull -------------------------------------- statistic wise, 66.33 we will crash/correct 33.33 bull market (Excluding present time) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tips: ***Only 2 times in history we got reading as high as now. 1/ Current reading is 37 P/E 2/ similar reading A. October , 2008- December 2009 End of a crash B. October 2001 - May 2002 last 1/3 of a crash ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- summary: Probability game is : Average crash 42 % Median crash 37 %
SP:SPX
by samitrading
2
Mixed BTC signals from LT MAs. Capitulation must end b4 moonThe 50 day and the 200 day ma recently had a death cross. The 50 week and 100 week ma about to have golden cross. Mixed signals between two long term indicators. imo the 50 day and 200 day has been more accurate with our cyclical performance analysis. Furthermore, BTC still stuck in the expansion phase top (14K) downtrend channel. Lastly, miner capitulation is still in progress. All of this looks to say that the path of least resistance is to the downside. That is until miner capitulation is complete and BTC is able to get a bid that can break and close above the top of the downtrend channel. Really depends on how much working capital the miners were able to build up from the explosive expansion phase and how bad institutional miners want to eliminate competition going into a historic halving that will lower BTC's inflation rate to lower than that of both gold and fiat. Double bottom incoming over next couple of weeks, may even tap $5Ks. LONG opportunity of a lifetime (cycle) because the Bull Phase B target is $90k to $150K. Good luck everyone. Learn more about the cryptonomics cycle in the free Special Report: Cryptonomics @ www.ciadc.co
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Christian_Investment_Analysis
btc/usd: area of indecisionA fast update un btc/usd. This pattern, reminds me a bearish trend, with bearish price action. We had a rise, btc did a top (F) on 6 september as i said on my cyclical analysis: and now is doing some lower lows ( I-O-Q). My theory is that if btc won't close an h4 candle above 10200 (blue dashed line), there is no reason to be bullish! As you can see, each bounce is being sold before reaching the previus high (F-N-P) and we had lower lows. But there are some bullish stuff here: - MFI shows a good bullish divergence and a very small bearish divergence; - DI- is going down while the price is going down--> bullish; - DI+ is going up while the price is going down--> bullish; - ADX shows that the strenght of the actual trend (bearish), is getting weaker--->bullish So what to do? - If btc closes h4 above 10200, it's possible to try a long with 10500-10600 as first target - For the short i think this is a good area to enter (10150-10250); stop loss at 10400, target 9400-9500 Looking at the cyclical analysis, in this moment 9500 is the logical target. I am already short and i keep shorting, but who knows!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by speaking_tree
BTC/USD. cyclycal analysisIn the last analysis, I was long on btc and my targets were 10400 and 10800-11100 area (still on the radar). What I wanna show to you is my cyclical analysis. I opened a lot of positions following this. As you can see, we have different cycles; blue vertical lines show where is it possible to have a top; red vertical lines show where is it possible to have a bottom. I think bears are in control because we had LOWER HIGH and btc never broke the previous high since 14000, so each bounce is being shorted. The structure will change if btc will break the red rectangle and the black trendline which is working as resistance since 14000. What I have on my mind are the following scenarios: - Blue scenario: the most logical scenario at the moment. Top at 11200 area (red rectangle and trendline) in about 3 days ( 6 september), then drop to 9400 area, then rise again and final dump 23-25 september. - Red scenario: Top at 11200 in 3 days, the same of blue scenario, then drop to 9400. People will think "btc is dead, is going to 7500", they will short and we will have a short squeeze and btc will reach again the red rectangle/ the trendline (11200 area). At this point I could expect a break of this area. People will fomo because the breakout of the trendline and btc could reach 12000 area, then dump. We have some points in common in the scenarios: - We will have a top in 11200 area - Btc will dump to 9400 area - Around 23 september we will have another dip. If btc will break the trendline that is working as support, i think we could drop under 8000, but i will updtade!
by speaking_tree
BTC/USD: the next movementIn the past days I had no time to update and while I am writing, btc is rising. I am already long cause of my cyclical analysis; I was sure we already had the bottom and I think the price won't fall under 9400 for the next week (9 september). If I had no position, I probably would have waited an h4 closure above the black dashed line; in past this trendline worked first as resistance, then as support and now as resistance again, so it is an important level. I think that an h4 closure above this line (10000), will bring the price up. My first target is 10400 (red horizontal line); my second target is the red rectangle and the red line: 10800-11100 area. In this area we have a lot of stuff (fibonacci levels, old support and resistance area). This is the time I think is better to no short. Each dip is an opportunity to buy. 9600 would be a perfect entry. If btc falls under 9600, probably I am totally wrong, but if btc holds this level, my targets are 10400 first, 10800-11100 then!
BLong
by speaking_tree
1
Gold its on cycle turnDear traders. After 5 years of the cycle , Now it's time to repeat the cycle in the 6th year. Supply gold against demand on better price. From the formation of their angles and collision with the 6 year cycle, it can be concluded that gold would return back from the 1237 range. On December 12, 2018 , a better price could be bullish. So, based on this analysis, the range of buy is around 1160~1180 . Here, more details are available on the latest wave... Have a good day, Pooya Salehipour
TVC:GOLDShort
by PooyaSalehipour
1
USD/JPY - In an up-cycle into mid-January 2019USD/JPY has followed a nice string of up- and down-cycles since 2011 and in mid-February USD/JPY entered into its next up-cycle that will last to mid-January 2019. Especially the period into late summer and autumn 2018 should prove strong and a strong upside acceleration could be seen during this time-window. It doesn't mean that USD/JPY can't continue to rally to the end of this up-cycle in mid-January 2019, but the tendency is a strong rally to the mid-time of the cycle and then the rally flattens and goes sideways. I do expect the resistance-line from the 125.86 peak in June 2015 to be broken for a continuation higher to at least 114.37 and ideally closer to the June 2015 peak at 125.86. I have marked the rally from the June 2016 low at 98,96 to the mid-December 2016 high at 118.67 and the following decline to the March 2018 low at 104.61 as wave 2, but they could as well be marked as wave A and B in a large zig-zag correction in an unfinished flat correction from the 125.86 peak. However, for now our focus should towards the upside only interrupted by temporary minor correction. Short-term, I'm looking for such temporary minor correction from the current peak at 110.46 closer to support in the 108.54 - 108.85 area before moving higher again to challenge the resistance-line from the 125.86 peak.
Long
by EWS
APPLE LONG: $151-$182 - CYCLICAL ANALYSIS & REGRESSION FORECASTAnalysing Apple's (AAPL) historical cyclical price movements and using the +/- 2SD of the linear regression to forecast a naive regression price for the next extension phase. * Extension leg Regression Forecast* 1. For leg A (Extension Leg 1) we use a start point of $12.5 or $33 (phase doesnt have a clear start), or we could assume a mean value of (12.5+33)/2= $22.75. - Leg A is then, $12.5, $23.5 or $33 divided by $100, which means Leg A is a price increase of = 700%, 310% or 200% 2. For Leg C (Extension Leg 2) the price increased from $55 to $134.5 which is a 145% increase. 3. For Foretasted Leg E (Extension Leg 3), we start at $89 and we derive the price "%" increase by: - Using the regression of the price increase % from Leg A to Leg C e.g. 145%/700%= 21%; 145/310 = 46%; 145/200= 73%, so this means for each of the calculations we can then assume each is the regression growth differential from Leg C's 145% increase to foretasted Leg E's "%" increase 4. e.g. Foretasted Leg E / Extension Leg 3: 21% of 145% = 31% increase; $89 * 31% = $117 or 46% of 145% = 67% increase ; $89* 67% * $89= $151 or 73% of 145% = 106% increase; $89 * 106% = $182 - Thus Apples Leg E/ Extension Leg 3's Naive Regression Forecast = between $151 and $182 * As shown on graph. Furthermore, another interesting statistical measure for apples 10year/ 120 Month +/-2SD channel was that the Pearsons R was 0.95. This means that the linear correlation between Apples Price over the measured time period was 95%. 95% of all values observed lie averagely on its linear regression line (middle line of the Stan Dev channel) - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient - Having such a high Peasons R means the regression line holds true for 95% of past data and therefore is MAY also include 95% of future data thus extrapolating the linear line (or using basic regressions as i have done) is of some statistical significance. A Pearsons R coefficient of 0.3 means there is little positive correlation between Price and Time, thus extrapolating prices through time using basic regressions/ forecasts is much less statistically prudent, since only 30% of past data correlated about the linear regression line.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
1