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Cypher-harmonic

Bitcoin's Roadmap: Price Structure, Fair Value & Market RhythmSince bottoming on November 21, 2022, Bitcoin has embarked on a remarkable bull run, rising +623.5% over 927 days and reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of ~112K. When compared to the previous bull cycle, spanning 1061 days and producing a +2086% gain, this current rally shows signs of diminishing returns, a typical behaviour of maturing markets. Traders now face a critical question: has Bitcoin peaked for this cycle, or is another surge toward ~120K+ possible? Historical Echoes: Elliott Wave Comparison The 2018–2021 bull market formed a five-wave Elliott structure. That cycle ended with a -77.5% correction. The current cycle similarly traces out a completed five-wave advance from the $15.5K low, suggesting we may now be in a corrective phase. Current hypothesis: Bitcoin is in Wave B of an ABC correction, with Wave C potentially targeting $64K–$70K. Harmonic Confirmation: Cypher Sigma Pattern A refined harmonic formation, I call it the Cypher Sigma Harmonic Pattern (CSHP) and it has proven highly effective in volatile assets like Bitcoin. It differs from the classic Cypher by: BC projection: 1.07–1.136 of XA (vs. 1.272–1.414) CD retracement: 0.786–0.886 of XC BD extension: 1.272–1.618 of BC (not present in traditional Cypher but often targets 1.272-2.0) In 2022, this pattern predicted the bottom near $16K. Currently, another Cypher Sigma is potentially forming, pointing to a possible correction to ~$64K. This target aligns with historical level (the 2021 ATH zone) and represents a possible -40% pullback. Multi-Layered Technical Confluence Pitchfork Resistance: Bitcoin rejected the upper resistance (Fib 1.0–1.136 zone) Pitchfork Golden Pocket Support: ~$64K matches the golden pocket and high-liquidity area Fibonacci Circles: Rejection precisely at the 1.618–1.65 circle arc (~$112K) Speed Fan 0.618: Key structural support intersects projected retracement zone Previous 2021 ATH Together, these tools strongly support the hypothesis of a macro top forming. Fair Value Trend Model (FVTM) – New Indicator As part of ongoing research into Bitcoin’s long-term valuation, I developed the Fair Value Trend Model—a logarithmic regression-based indicator tailored for Bitcoin. Here is an example on the monthly timeframe. Key Features: Computes a log-log regression: ln(Price) vs ln(Days since inception) Yields a power-law growth curve: F(t) = C · ^b Includes dynamic channel bands at user-defined percentage offsets Projects the trend forward in time with linear extrapolation I have just freshly published this indicator for free on TradingView. Visit my profile, add it to your chart, and explore how Bitcoin consistently revisits its fair value in bear markets before launching new macro waves. Use Cases: Identify overextensions above the fair value channel Spot mean-reversion setups near the lower channel band Gauge long-term trend continuation via slope and forecast The indicator is best used on daily, weekly and monthly charts, and it supports both all-time and rolling-window modes. Educational Insight: The Fair Value Trend Model isn’t just a tool! It's a lens to view the long-term rhythm of the Bitcoin market. By understanding where the fair value lies, you gain the clarity to separate short-term volatility from long-term opportunity. Every great trader starts with a desire to understand. If you're learning, experimenting, and observing patiently—you’re on the right path. Let this model be your guide through the noise. Trust the math, respect the cycles, and never stop refining your edge. Study day and swing trading, improve your technical and psychological skills, and wait patiently for high-probability trade setups, whether short-, medium-, or long-term. Being patient is key. Psychological Insight: Mastery Over Impulse The greatest returns favour the patient. Traders who ignored the noise in 2022 and accumulated around $16K were rewarded exponentially. As Bitcoin potentially enters a correction, the same principle applies: monitor, learn, and prepare—not panic. Top-tier traders execute based on structure, not emotion. This cycle will reward those who: -> Study multi-timeframe confluences Outlook: Bearish Retracement, Bullish Opportunity While a push to $120K+ is possible, the confluence of Elliott Wave, harmonic patterns, and macro tools suggest a potential 40% retracement into ~$64K by end of 2025/early 2026. This aligns with historical patterns and may offer a great buying opportunity. This cycle isn’t about catching the exact top—it’s about navigating it intelligently. Use tools that reflect structural value, not just reactive price action. Combine the Fair Value Trend Model with other tools to gain clarity. Most importantly: remain curious, remain disciplined. Happy trading. Thanks for reading =) stay sharp, stay patient, and keep evolving 🚀 _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Short
by SiDec
4
Bitcoin Dominance: Elliott Wave and Harmonics Combo (Part 2)MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN Dominance ( #BTC.D / CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) indeed started the rise I predicted back in late '22. CRYPTOCAP:BTC rose to the limits, exceeding the 100K Mark. In #ElliottWave, this is Cycle Wave C (turquoise). Primary Wave ① (white) completed, with the Corrective Primary Wave ②now in play. The Correction will pave the way for Alt Season to commence, so the focus will shift to Alt Coins. #Harmonics are showing #Cypher Patterns, a combo actually, on different degrees. Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D ) Technical Analysis: * Elliott Wave Impulse: Cycle C (turquoise) * Harmonic Patterns: Bullish Cyphers * 88.6% Fibonacci Retracement * Break-Out with Divergence * Leading Diagonal in Primary Wave ① (white) Conclusion: After a last rise, expecting MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN to top-out and start a Larger Correction. Alt Season to start and deliver, based on #BTC losing ground. After this, CRYPTOCAP:BTC to continue ruling, as the one and only #Cryptocurrency.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by EW4X
1
BITCOIN new ATHs !? BITCOIN new all-time highs ?! Hello ❤TV community 👋 The new year is still young and the bulls could really take off here ... Here with a bullish option and a WolveWave(WW) and the targets on the upside. 🖥Intraday chart (12h) and everything important 💡 Everything important in the chart 👀 💥bullish CYPHER Harmonic 👀 👉Volume analysis 👀💪 👉Daily MA50 re-test 👀🔥 🔥BITCOIN roadmap/outlook (from 27th february 2024) If you like this idea, please leave me a 🚀 and follow for updates 🔥⏰ Furthermore, any criticism is welcome as well as any suggestions etc. - You're also very welcome to share this idea. Have a nice evening & successful trading decisions 💪 M_a_d_d_e_n ✌ NOTE: The above information represents my idea and is not an investment/trading recommendation! Without any guarantee & exclusion of liability!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by M_a_d_d_e_n
31
Unfolding Patterns in Gold: Bullish Gartley and Bearish CypherGood day traders, It's been a while, and I trust everyone has been doing great. Permit me to share my thoughts on the Gold market and the potentially unfolding patterns I am anticipating. In the current gold market, I have identified two potential harmonic patterns that may be unfolding. The first and larger pattern is a potential bullish Gartley pattern. The X leg originates at 2286.83, and the A leg peaks at 2483.74, establishing the impulse legs. The B leg appears to have completed at 2365.915, corresponding to a 61.8% retracement of the XA leg. At the B leg, the price seems to be finding support. If this support holds, I anticipate a rally towards the 2430-2442 region to form the C leg. Subsequently, I would expect a price drop, provided it is indeed a Gartley pattern. A decline below 2341.540 would invalidate the Gartley pattern formation. The second and smaller pattern is a potential bearish Cypher pattern. The X leg began at 2483.74, and the A leg seems to have completed at 2383.930. The XA leg was retraced by less than 50% Fibonacci at 2413.715, forming the B leg. Currently, it appears that the price is finding support at 2365.915, which could potentially be the C leg. If this support level holds, we might expect a rally towards the 2430-2442 region, confirming the larger Gartley pattern. If the Cypher pattern is valid, we could see a further rise in price towards the 2471.64 and 2480.00 region to complete the bearish Cypher before a subsequent drop. A drop below 2363.655 would invalidate the potential Cypher pattern formation. It would be best to wait for a break above the 2384.518 price region in order to allow the market show commitment to move higher. This could provide additional confidence in the outlined outlook. Please note that these patterns may not be formed eventually. Cheers and happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Samuel124
6
Cypher Bearish Pattern on ROKU (3H Timeframe)🔍 Overview: Spotted a bearish Cypher pattern on ROKU's 3-hour chart. This setup looks promising for a short trade! 📉 The RVOL average is increasing, which gives us a bearish confirmation. However, be cautious as the "High Volatility" dots indicate potential for drastic and unpredictable moves. 📊 📉 Chart Analysis: 1️⃣ The Cypher pattern indicates a potential reversal from the recent uptrend, with resistance around the $64.28 level. 2️⃣ The increasing RVOL average supports the bearish sentiment, suggesting more sellers are entering the market. 📈 🎯 Trade Setup: Entry Point: Look for confirmations as the price approaches the resistance level. Target 1: $58.86 💰 Stop Loss: $64.28 🚨 📝 Why I'm Interested: The combination of the Cypher pattern and increasing RVOL provides a strong bearish signal. The "High Volatility" dots highlight the need for caution but also present an opportunity for quick profits if managed carefully. 📊📉 📅 Timeframe: Monitoring this setup on a 3-hour chart, so keep an eye on shorter-term price movements. ⏳ 🔔 Stay Updated: Be ready to adapt your strategy as the price action unfolds. Let's get it! 🤑✌️ #ROKU #CypherPattern #RVOL #HighVolatility #Trading #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeTalkFarsi 📉🐻
NASDAQ:ROKUShort
by SIGNALIST_indicator
DKNG final pattern to target Doing a final look at the price action of DKNG and it seems we are in a huge cypher pattern. Price will need to kick back up and hold at 30 (magenta line). Its been my experience these patterns typically have the deep retracement and then rally back upside. They can be fast going up and then dramatically deceiving and slow coming down. The pattern terminates 37.55 , but the Gann box is at 40.. so I am suspecting (without confirmation at this time) that a new mico bullish harmonic will develop at the APEX. Thsi is also near the 3/1 Gann angle and usually is a strong terminating or promoting area. In this case I think this pattern will draw in late comers and then the dramatic drop in price will commence, but 40 remains the target until we can get additional information later in this cycle. NOTE: The top is the same top from the previous charts for DKNG.
NASDAQ:DKNGLong
by Moorsc0de
BTC Geometric Price and Time projectionThis chart looks at a 200-day dominant cycle of BTC (current DC is actually 185 days peak to peak represented int he Gann Box). Based on this analysis with geometry and gann boxes at the 185-day dominant cycle length, I see a price for BTC at 39K by October. I think this is a very conservative target. That said the geometry of it all cannot be ignored. The 0.25 and 2.5 shows up in multiple places with a perfect 0.33 on the 0.25 Gann Box representing the price axis bringing completion of peak to peak at 185-200 day cycle around 39,000 - 40,000. I could also see a flash dump in the next day or two down to 29,600, but that is the bottom. BTC has moved sideways for the majority of its declining cycle strength which tells me it has strength. Long story short I would not be trading this market and accumulating for the longer-term is probably the best move.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by pasenner23
AMP Bullish harmonic cypher showing potential price outbreakHello Today I bring you a harmonic cypher showing bullish signs on AMP. A typical harmonic cypher pattern is bullish IF: The initial leg, the XA leg, rallies higher from the starting point at X. The AB leg moves lower to retrace the XA leg. This retracement should bring prices to between the 38.2 to 61.8 percent level of the XA leg. The BC leg moves higher and takes out the swing high at point A, and terminating between the 127.2 and 141.4 projection of the initial XA leg. The CD leg moves lower and terminates near the 78.6% retracement level of the price move from point X to point C. Upon the price reaching the 78.6% retracement level at point D, the bullish Cypher pattern is considered complete, and a price rise is expected. The retracement percentage to point D did not reach past 70% but, despite this, all the other characteristics of the bullish harmonic cypher match the one on our chart.
Long
by teh4pple