ok, Bitcoin Weekly , phases of Bubbles and some thoughtsTurns out that we have 2-3 weeks to stand still while BTC smoothly goes down and touches to the weekly channel support around 3.600-3.700
So, I took a look at the Bitcoin history, as we have time right?
It seems, the excitement about bitcoin, has changed gear for the last 2 years. And if specifically talking, RSI , since the end of 2015 has been touching to 50 range and jumping back up and never dropping below 50.That is a sign of a more dynamic and aggressive market
But, previously it was not the case.
So, I decided to examine and tried to understand of this change's process, in our bubble's phase I to phase II.
(Don't get me wrong, this is a new born bubble, no way it is close to bust!!)
Tracking back in time the the date 2 November 2015 seems to be the date, where we have up geared to phase II. That seems to me so! But any objection is accepted.
There is huge green volume , not affecting the prices on weekly basis, but after that date, the momentum is increasing and slope of the price action starts to increase. For some time, second derivative for the price action is zero while after some time, second derivative starts to increase too.
Checking back to the mentioned date, it seems there 3 issues , that people are talking about that can effect bitcoin; I am not exactly sure what was the trigger but they are;
- Financial troubles in Greece
- Some kind of a Russian Financial Social Networking fraud event
- EU courts deciding that VAT tax is not applicable on bitcoin ( this is my take )
There might be some of you, who were actually in the market at that times, I would appreciate any other possibility as well.It would be nice to identify a critical point of history of bitcoin bubble.
Anyway, other that, it seems, we will have to wait at least 2-3 weeks more , while BTC price slides down and RSI by the way touches 50 again.
I am expecting Head and shoulders pattern to form to be completed while BTC price dropping to 3.600-3.700 area.
Probably , when we reach the bottom, the difference between Chineese exchange BTC prices and other BTC exchange price difference will not be there anymore. That will be a another clue , probably.
Thats all folks. Tell me what you think
Wish I had left some Game of Thrones not watched , don't know how to spend the time now
