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D-AUD

AudNzd weakness is coming...AN should be making a turn down, already showing signs...Watch for it. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
3
High Stakes: RBA rate decision vs. Melbourne Cup We are about 8 hours away from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. That decision is due on Tuesday at 2:30 pm (local Aussie time), a couple of hours before the country's biggest horse race, the Melbourne Cup ($8 million in prize money) is set to take place. But perhaps the more exciting match ups will be occurring in the forex market. Currently, the market is thinking there is a 70% chance of a 25-basis points hike because of the RBA governor's rhetoric that the bank would "not hesitate to raise the cash rate further" if inflation was higher than expected (which it was in its last quarterly reading). The 30% chance of no hike is possibly driven by concerns about mortgage stress in the country after the post-COVID 12 cash rate increases. On the flip side of some potential AUD trades, we have expectations for the US Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) enacting a 25-basis points cut by June next year. Weaker-than-expected NFP figures in the U.S. last Friday bolstered expectations that the Fed was done with its tightening campaign and pulled the AUD/USD up past 0.64900 from 0.64400. This makes me question whether the upside to the AUD/USD is all played out. Moments after the interest rate announcement will be crucial to see which direction the market wants to take. If the RBA does enact a hike today, concerns about mortgage stress in Australia might induce the pair to revisit some of the levels the pair traversed last Friday during its climb just before market close.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDUSD - Daily Timeframe Analysis (ICT)I'm anticipating price to head towards the Internal Buyside Liquidity in the form of Equal Highs above as a first objective. This bias comes from External Liquidity being raided, with a manipulative move that took it out a second time. A large Daily Sibi was left in its wake, but what was interesting is that price came into, and closed within the Sibi on Thursday, and on Friday's NFP it shot down to take out the previous day's low before coming back into the Sibi with a bullish close. In my eyes this is indicative of price wanting to head towards Buyside Liquidity before a HTF continuation to the downside. As for narrative, I would anticipate price breaking through the Sibi, finding resistance possibly somewhere within the long-tailed Daily Wick and Trendline Buyside Liquidity above. Consequently, returning back into the Daily Sibi and using it as support before moving higher to the objective. This analysis is based on Smart Money accumulating more shorts at relevant zones of Buyside Liquidity and Inefficiencies. A POI for a reversal back to the downside will be based on how price moves at either one of the annotations above my first objective. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
1
AUDUSD: Thoughts and Analysis pre-RBA Today's focus: AUDUSD Pattern – Range /Distribution? Support – .6287 Resistance – .6520 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the AUDUSD on the daily chart. Today, we have run over the AUDUSD as price continues to test resistance after Friday's fantastic rally after US employment data sunk the USD. Technically price looks good. We have run over price action we want to see to show a continuation in the AUDUSD. Two factors are the USD strength and the RBA rate decision. Rates are expected to rise tomorrow, but will this be it, or will the door be left open? The USD momentum change is another key. If this trend continues, we will look for the AUDUSD to contnue its current trend. We do want to see a new higher low to show a solid trend structure. Good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
EurAud more downside to come But...But do take note of the key support area now, bias is still on short side. Likewise I am also bearish on GbpAud! **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
AUDCHF: Fakeout or Breakout?We can see we've just broken out of my channel top after a strong bullish move, but this isn't the first time and we're hitting strong resistance. Swissie has been weak of late, unlike the Aussie, so I believe this can go either way. I'll be looking at longs around 0.589 if resistance is broken, but we may well fall back first. If we fall back below 0.578 then I'll be waiting for the triple bottom around 0.561 before looking to go long. Obviously this could all be a fakeout and we'll be back in the channel, but I do think it's risky shorting down hear unless it's for a quick scalp as it definitely looks like a good double bottom is already in play. Both of these currencies are gold dependent for different reasons (Aussie exporting it, Swissie holding it), and Aussie is doing well because gold is. I'm expecting a c0ontinuation of gold strength as per my recent idea, so probably expecting this pair could keep flying?
Long
by Finchcliffe
AUDJPY Buy the pull-back.The AUDJPY pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern that is currently rising on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A recently formed Bullish Cross on the 1D MA50, calls for a potential short-term pull-back similar to the August 24 MACD Bullish Cross. We will wait for that opportunity near the 1D MA200 and buy, targeting Resistance 1 at 97.675. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
RBA meeting playbook – a 25bp hike is the call Having been on hold since June the RBA should hike by 25bp to get the cash rate to 4.35%. We see a 60% chance of a hike priced into interest rate futures, with the market having a high conviction that if they don’t hike next week then they will almost certainly in December. 21 of 24 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) are calling for the hike. The doves do have a case for the RBA keeping rates on hold, but the case to hike seems stronger., with Aussie economic data consistently beating expectations since early October. This should culminate in the RBA increasing its inflation forecasts for Dec-23 and June-24 by 25bp, with its trimmed mean CPI estimate likely revised higher by around 50bp. Given Q2 GDP came in 50bp above the RBA’s forecasts we should see its growth measures increase as well. One can argue that leaving rates on hold would risk the bank being seen as getting behind the inflation curve, and we can see market pricing of 5-year inflation expectations rising to 2.81% - approaching the highest levels since 2011. Some have also focused on Treasurer Jim Chalmers recent comments that the Q3 CPI print did not represent a “material” worsening in the inflation outlook, and by leaving rates on hold it could be seen as a sign of reduced central bank independence. The RBA to review the stress on households We can look ahead to the upcoming bank earnings reports with WBC (6 Nov), NAB (9 Nov) and ANZ (13 Nov) and review their asset quality given lending rates have increased so rapidly. In the prior trading updates, there was no clear evidence that borrowers were facing broad difficulties. In fact, projections that total scheduled P&I payments will push to 9.75% of household disposable income in 2024, suggest servicing this debt is still manageable. We also see over 40% of households are ahead on mortgage payments and have enough savings to cushion a further increase. In terms of volumes, APRA’s September lending data showed total gross loans and advances grew 0.7% m/m in September, with household lending growth +0.3% m/m and business growth +1.2% m/m. Credit card volumes increased 1.2%. And with house prices still on the rise, these are factors that will lean the RBA towards a hike. The RBA will be cognisant of the impact a further lift in the cash rate will have on households and businesses – but while some will be negatively impacted and undergo real stress, on the whole borrowers should be able to readily absorb more hikes. Trading the RBA meeting Given market expectations and pricing, should the RBA leave rates on hold but retain a hawkish bias, then we should see the AUDUSD drop 50 pips or so off the bat, with a solid rally likely seen in the AUS200. With the base case being we see a 25bp hike while maintaining a tightening bias, then all things being equal the AUD should find good buyers, with AUDUSD spiking 30-40 pips. AUDNZD has been the most sensitive to interest rate differentials, as we see here in the AUS-NZ 2-year forward rate differentials. If the RBA hike and imply more then AUDNZD should break the recent highs of 1.0940. In fact, on a simple rates model the AUDNZD cross should be trading closer to 1.1050. AUDUSD is more of a risk proxy than a rates play, taking direction from S&P500 futures and the HK50 index, but the setup is looking more compelling for longs. I prefer to play this from a momentum standpoint and wait for the close above 0.6445, for a potential move into 0.6600. EURAUD, AUDCHF and AUDJPY are also risk proxies and have a good relationship with the VIX index. Granted, if the RBA hikes, then we will likely see a pop in the AUD, but after a short period traders will revert to taking its direction from S&P500 futures and cross-asset volatility. Looking at AUD 1-week implied (option) volatility (vol) we see vols are not showing any real signs option market makers are expecting a significant change in the trading conditions next week. That said, given the split pricing for Tuesday, we could see some rapid-fire moves around the announcement and that is a risk traders need to manage.
Long
by Pepperstone
AUDUSD to complete bearish orderflow?After consecutive breaks of weak lower lows with lower highs holding strong, a bearish 4h orderflow was evident. Price has been retracing and retesting supply zones up until the latest break of structure(which was too weak). Price has invalidated our latest supply zone and could be striving to reach for a previously unmitigated extreme supply with a huge imbalance below it. This then signals a potential complex pullback where price could use the extreme supply together with internal liquidity to fuel it's bearish expansion to take out the recent weak swing low. Fundamentals also forecast potential dollar strength gain on Friday afternoon, which is a confirmation of the analysis as it'd lead to a drop in most if not all dollar pairs.
Short
by BlackTygaTrades
7
GBPAUD SELL | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity GBPAUD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Short
by TheGrove
16
AUDUSD: Top-Down Analysis & Bearish Outlook Explained 🇦🇺🇺🇸 Take a look at AUDUSD. The pair is trading in a bearish trend. The price sets new lower highs, respecting a falling trend line on a daily. After its last test, the price formed a double top formation on that on an hourly time frame. Its neckline breakout leaves a strong bearish intraday clue. I expect a bearish movement to 0.6345 / 0.6335 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
GBPAUD to find buyers at current support?GBPAUD - 24h expiry Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 1.9175 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 1.9300. We look to Buy at 1.9100 (stop at 1.9040) Our profit targets will be 1.9250 and 1.9300 Resistance: 1.9175 / 1.9200 / 1.9250 Support: 1.9100 / 1.9050 / 1.9025 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
AUDUSD SELL | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity AUDUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Short
by TheGrove
32
AUDJPY: Big week for JPY Yen this weekThere's talk of the BoJ lifting the limit on yields to 1.5% from 1% this week, which would be a very strong catalyst for the Yen to start showing some strength. We can see that this pair does not have any direction at the moment, trading in a flag pattern, but I don't see this as either bullish or bearish at the moment. I'm not sure how or when or if to trade this but monitoring, my idea is based on BoJ protecting its currency generally, I am seeing the Aussie getting stronger so think we'll go up before coming back down, let's see...
Short
by Finchcliffe
AUDCAD: Descending triangle Squeeze - Exciting!!We're coming to the end of the long-term descending triangle. I'm generally expecting some big shifts across the markets by the end of November, in terms of reversals and this is one pair hot on my radar. I don't thin we'll break out for a few weeks, but I've got daily tabs on this, as coming to the end of the descending triangle with really solid support. Cad is benefitting from oil prices which is being supported by the middle east crisis, Aussie has been down for most of the year so expecting a shift in sentiment here. This is a good one to watch!
Long
by Finchcliffe
3