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D-AUD

AUDUSD remains negative.AUDUSD - Intraday Our short-term bias remains negative. Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. The bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour chart is negative for sentiment. Price action has posted a Doji candle and is neutral for the short-term sentiment. We look for a temporary move higher. 50 4-hour EMA is at 0.6574. We look to Sell at 0.6575 (stop at 0.6605) Our profit targets will be 0.6505 and 0.6485 Resistance: 0.6540 / 0.6560 / 0.6585 Support: 0.6527 / 0.6500 / 0.6480 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
AUD breakout traders – look to the yuan for inspirationAs is typically the way in FX trading the breakout traders see a set-up on the higher timeframes and either the market uses these levels to fade the move, or the breakout fails to gain traction and ultimately reverses. Those seasoned traders who use breakouts for trade entry – often momentum and trend-followers – know the percentage of breakouts that lead to trending conditions is typically low. It is why they target ‘outlier’ moves within a distribution and subscribe to the view that the win/loss ratio is not a major concern. The strategy will typically run win rates of 30-40% but will focus more on the reward-to-risk trade-off. Extracting as much profit from each trade is where they make their money and that is where the science of holding positions kicks in. We may end up with many small losing positions, but when we win it is ideally a 5 to 10R. Holding, as I say, is key and that is never easy – it is why having a rules-based strategy can pay dividends. When the market breaks out and goes on a run you must know when to hold and when to fold. Granted, FX markets have a higher propensity to revert to a mean than commodities or equity indices, but the AUD screams out as currently fitting this dynamic. Notably, EURAUD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF and GBPAUD screened on the breakout radar yesterday, but have since failed to follow through with the move. China is at the heart of the AUD recent moves. USDCNH has always been a strong guide for me on AUD flows, and while I have been of the view that weaker external demand needs a weaker currency – the PBoC is doing the utmost to push back on the yuan weakness, with consistently stronger yuan ‘fixings’ (seen each day at 11:15 AEST). As a driver, we’ve seen a slightly better China CPI print today at -0.3% and USDCNH has sold off, in turn, this has lifted the AUD. The statistical correlation between AUD and CNH has broken down of late, but for those trading AUDUSD or the AUD crosses through Asia, the influence of the yuan is still incredibly significant. Tactically, if we are to see an upside break of 7.2500 (in USDCNH) I’d have far higher conviction we’ll see a closing breakout in these AUD pairs. Patience is always our best friend in trading, especially when using leverage, as we need to nail our entries – so having the set-ups on the radar and waiting for the market flow to push a trade is prudent. One could say we’re at peak negative sentiment towards China, and next week’s China economic data (industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment) is likely to see a more pronounced positive reaction to a beat than a negative one to a miss. That is a risk to manage, but if the AUD kicks lower in these pairs it could be meaningful and certainly be welcomed by those that like to trade continuations.
Short
by Pepperstone
GBPAUDPotential divergence created. A previous intraday low was broken and the current high which was broken as well. A bit risky of a setup to be honest but it follows what i like to look for We have GBP news coming up Friday. GBP mortgage rater were higher but the housing price index MoM and YoY were lower with the AUD business confidence coming in higher than forecast and previous. Maybe we get a small pullback before further the GBP red folder reports that are to come this Friday? The short position is set for a 40% retracement target but it could go lower of course possibly reaching previous low or surpassing it. Just want to play it safe.
Short
by Redimere_91
🔥🔥🔥 AUDUSD...UT (30m) 🔥🔥🔥BSO @ 0.6568 ⏳ BLO1 @ 0.6550 ⏳ BLO2 @ 0.6526 ⏳ Choose your TP based on your favorite trading strategy or time frame: 🦘 AUDUSD (pip movement per strategy): STRATEGY PIP MOVEMENT Scalping 10-20 pips Intraday 20-40 pips Swing 40-80 pips Position 80-120 pips TIME FRAME AVERAGE ATR 1 day 20 pips 4 hours 10 pips 1 hour 5 pips 15 minutes 3 pips 5 minutes 2 pips ⚠️ TREND — Momentum: Big Picture Uptrend — Price Action: Ranging with an Uptrend Bias — CounterTrend: NO (moderate risk trade)
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
2
AUDJPY: Bearish on AUD, Bullish on JPYI believe we're going to start seeing a shift in sentiment for the JPY, there were indications last week, we broke a rising trendline, we've retraced and retesting now. Fundamentally the Japanese economy looks stronger, despite the loose monetary policy. We saw in June 2022 that BoJ can chuck curve balls in too, I'm not necessarily expecting that but if it happens I want to be on the right side. I'm bearish on AUD with high inflation and a dovish central bank, there is big news this week, we may see another pause, if that happens then we'll be down to around 90.0 I think before a retracement. I'm looking to get in anywhere from now up to 95.5, and a sell down to just above last week's low (92.0) ahead of the news this week, which could send this one further down, but best to be cautious!
Short
by Finchcliffe
AUDUSD: Good pair to trade with current fundamentalsI'm very bearish in AUD, fundamentally I think there's a chance we'll see another pause from the BoA this week. I see a strong US and though this may not play out in DXY, against weaker pairs the USD should show its current strength. Even before that, with short term USD strength and a weakening Australian Dollar I think we'll break through resistance and out of this sideways channel. I think we have a double top on the daily, we need confirmation below current levels (neckline break) and with that we could ultimately see falls to the 0.61 levels. We've had a break of the rising trendline so will be looking to get in with a retest and LTF confirmation.
Short
by Finchcliffe
3