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D-DAX

a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. If you follow the dax and maybe some German economic indicators or listen to the German word on the street, you are probably wondering how on earth this market can go higher and print daily new ath’s. Welp, all traders see it's overbought but it still keeps going up. This is absolutely the blow off top and the end of this move and it will soon be over. I have zero doubt about it and we will see at least -30% this year. Feel free to rub it in my face when i have been wrong at the end of the year. Most other indexes are ranging at the highs and bulls are still in btfd mode. Don't over commit to shorts and play the range. Quote from my weekend outlook: bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000. bull case: Not much to add here. Until we see higher selling pressure and stop making new daily all time highs, the music will continue. Next time profit taking starts, we will see a -2% / -3% day. bear case: Just nothing. All red bars are probably from bulls taking profits and not bears shorting. 17530 is the first bear target. short term: btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up. i am neutral here and scalp only long until bears show strength medium-long term: strong break above everything with follow through, can’t deny higher prices and no one knows when the squeeze will end. still waiting for the monthly close to give new targets. i’m still holding long term dax shorts which are obviously deep deep red. trade of the day: just a relentless bull trend from the open. no reason anywhere to exit longs
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX Forecast: Exploring Wave Patterns and Correction Scenarios🌍German DAX Analysis Taking another look at the German benchmark index, the DAX XETR:DAX , our scenario remains unchanged. If we don't breach the 18,000 EUR mark, we anticipate continuing with Wave IV, which is expected to range between 10,000 € and a maximum of 7,500 €, depending on the potential overshoot of Wave (B). This scenario will be invalidated if we surpass the 138 % level. Zooming into the 4-hour chart, we observe the formation more closely, potentially shaping Wave ((b)) that is currently in development. The 1-hour chart gives us an even closer view, indicating we are precisely in this phase of Wave ((b)). Crossing over 17,218 € would likely invalidate our current scenario, prompting a reevaluation of where Wave (B), marked in blue, could be located—potentially moving towards 17,500 € or up to 18,000 €. Should there be a turn at this juncture, we might see a flat correction, an overshooting flat moving down towards Wave ((c)) or Wave 1. After reaching the 127-138 % range, this phase should conclude with a 5-wave cycle downwards.
XETR:DAXShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. If you are a regular reader, you know by now, that i’m the first to acknowledge and point out my errors. I’m tougher on myself than the internet could ever be. Today was another humbling day for bearish takes on the market. One would think the odds for deeper pullbacks rise with each consecutive buy climax. Not today anyhow. Having invalidation prices for your market take is crucial for survival of your account and always have a stop in place. At the end of trends the odds of an exhaustive move are high. You can see this on higher time frames as on lower ones. This parabolic move today has a very high probability of being one but bears need to show strength soon. dax bull case: Very strong day and odds favor the bulls because they are in control and we are making higher highs. That’s the reality. Can bears print big bear bars and take over to reverse the whole day? Yeah i think so but it’s low probability. Bulls bought low and we are very high again. It’s also true that the last weeks bulls weren’t eager to buy into new highs and the pullbacks we got, got bigger. So tomorrow would be interesting to see if bulls can close above 17400 or not. Measured move from today’s spike (we had a spike-pullback bull trend today) is 17600. bear case: Bears will try to sell the highs again because the last couple of days/weeks they made money doing so. They need to trade down to a potential neckline 17290 and then form a higher low before they have a decent chance of lower prices. short term: down to sideways - pullback is expected but bulls are in control. higher prices are possible but i think sideways is the most likely outcome for tomorrow medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17200 - bulls got one and another would change my mind until i see the monthly close. i still expect this Februar to close below 17000 but it’s far away trade of the day: long since globex open bar 2 because marked gapped up and never looked back. could have bought every pullback coming close to the 15 20ema also. after bar 29-32, there was 75% of a bull trend day and higher prices and one should not look for shorts after such a strong move until bears clearly took control and for that they have to break bull trend lines and trade below the ema - the higher the time frame the more reliable
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
1
DAX Trading plan based on the 1D MA50DAX (DE40) is on a short-term Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has held twice in the past month (January 17 and February 13). As long as it holds, we will most likely see a break of the long-term Channel Up, which in time could complete a +20.90% rise as the July 31 2023 High. In that case, we will target 17400 on the short-term. If however the 1D MA50 breaks, we will open a sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 16200. Based on the 1D RSI, which is showing a consolidation following a Channel Down, there are more probabilities of replicating the April - May 2023 bullish sequence. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingShot
1
GDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade IdeaTheres a full video analysis posted before this. The DAX 40's recent bullish surge reveals signs of exhaustion on the monthly and weekly charts. Lower timeframes suggest a manipulative price structure primed for a potential trend reversal. Here's the breakdown: - Overextension: Extended trends often succumb to corrections or shifts in direction. The DAX 40 appears ripe for such a move. - Liquidity Engineering: The 4-hour and daily price action hints at manipulation. The downside breakout followed by a stop-loss raid indicates possible accumulation to fuel a bearish move. - Reversal Pattern: This market behavior aligns with recurring reversal setups I've observed consistently throughout my trading experience. Trade Idea - Direction: Short (with the potential for significant downside) - Timeframe: Expect bearish momentum through February and March. - Monitor: Watch for validation on lower timeframes (e.g., a bearish break of the current range). - Risk Management: Set appropriate stop-loss levels based on your risk tolerance. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Before making any trades, perform your own in-depth research and exercise prudent risk management.
SPREADEX:GDAXIShort
by tradingwithanthony
1
GDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade IdeaGDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade Idea The DAX 40's recent bullish surge reveals signs of exhaustion on the monthly and weekly charts. Lower timeframes suggest a manipulative price structure primed for a potential trend reversal. Here's the breakdown: - Overextension: Extended trends often succumb to corrections or shifts in direction. The DAX 40 appears ripe for such a move. - Liquidity Engineering: The 4-hour and daily price action hints at manipulation. The downside breakout followed by a stop-loss raid indicates possible accumulation to fuel a bearish move. - Reversal Pattern: This market behavior aligns with recurring reversal setups I've observed consistently throughout my trading experience. Trade Idea - Direction: Short (with the potential for significant downside) - Timeframe: Expect bearish momentum through February and March. - Monitor: Watch for validation on lower timeframes (e.g., a bearish break of the current range). - Risk Management: Set appropriate stop-loss levels based on your risk tolerance. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Before making any trades, perform your own in-depth research and exercise prudent risk management.
SPREADEX:GDAXIShort
by tradingwithanthony
DAX: Market Top is being formed. DAX hit the HH trendline on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.185, MACD = 53.000, ADX = 25.248) but a Bearish Divergence RSI. The 1D CCI is repeating the May 19th-July 31st 2023 successive peak pattern on the HH that eventually corrected first to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA200 and then under the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently, a crossing under the 1D MA50 will be the ideal sell signal to target the S1 level (TP = 16,350). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by InvestingScope
1
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. My bearish outlook or at least i gave the higher odds to the bears was wrong and bulls just kept buying everything today. Tomorrow is Opex and all markets are at big resistances again after beginning the week with a selloff. Tomorrow has the potential to be wild. I see it as a trading range at the highs and the recent rally had 2 bigger moves, with 3 smaller legs inside. My next best guess is that odds favor the bears and we get a two legged down movement for which i drew the first one potentially playing out tomorrow. Please note that the odds of this are very slim. Bulls are in control but buying up here is beyond bad from r:r point. Shorting this could also blow your account pretty fast if market decides that we need another ath 200 points above. Doing nothing and waiting for easier trades is a legit strategy. dax Dax had a big spike from the open and bulls used it to take profits. They tried twice to bring it back up but failed at the January high 17123. Dax closed right in the middle of opening price and the spike high. The US session kept buying at lifted dax above the previous February high 17151, inside a very tight bull channel. bull case: Bulls trapped the bears and just went higher since yesterdays close. They now are near the ath and want to print a higher one. Their problem though is, that the risk:reward of buying up here is bad and the selloff at the beginning of the week was strong enough to make traders cautious to not get trapped above 17100 again. If bulls can keep it above 17057, odds are high for even higher prices. bear case: Bears see 4 pushes up from Tuesday and see it as a trading range on higher time frames. Risk:Reward is clearly on their side to sell up here but first they need to stop the bulls making higher highs. Their first target is the 1h 20ema at 17100 and make the market go sideways there. short term: sideways to down medium-long term: down - nothing will change that. trade of the day: long since Globex since the gap never closed (again, i know). alternatively could just buy everything near the 1h 20ema since Tuesdays lows
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
DAX H4 | Potential bearish reversalDAX (GER40) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target. Entry: 17,037.75 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level Stop Loss: 17,087.40 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level Take Profit: 16,791.05 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GShort
by VantageMarkets
1
Short Dax H4 DAX Index (H4) Analysis 📉 Overview: Analyzing the DAX index on the H4 timeframe, we observe significant resistance in the range of 17000 - 17100. The price has formed a descending structure, creating lower highs and lower lows. 📊 Key Observations: Resistance Zone: Strong resistance is evident around 17000 - 17100, where the price encountered notable selling pressure. Descending Structure: The price has been forming a descending structure, indicating a potential downtrend. 📈 Sell Plan: Sell Zone: Plan to initiate a sell position in the range of 16900 - 17000. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at 17150 to mitigate potential losses. Target Price: Set the target price at 16700, anticipating a continuation of the downtrend. 👀 Further Considerations: Confirmation Indicators: Use technical indicators or price action confirmation to validate the selling decision. Market Conditions: Stay informed about broader market conditions and relevant news that may impact the DAX. 🛑 Risk Management: Risk/Reward Ratio: Maintain a balanced risk/reward ratio to ensure prudent risk management. 🚀 Summary: Given the resistance at 17000 - 17100 and the descending structure, executing a sell plan in the range of 16900 - 17000 with a stop loss at 17150 and a target of 16700 seems like a well-considered strategy. Always monitor for confirmation signals and stay attentive to market developments. #DAXAnalysis #SellStrategy #StockMarket
FX:GER30Short
by MasterShadow
202407 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood day and i hope you are well. Bulls made new all time highs on dax, sp500, nasdaq and the dow (those are the ones i cover, so i don’t care about the rest). Since i don’t think this is the beginning of a new stronger trend, where we rally another 5-10%, all bullish targets are met imo. My focus has now shifted to a change in the character of the market. We had amazing bull runs, next logical cycle is a trading range before we get a new bear trend. We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. A week ago i raised the thesis that we are very close to the end of this bull rally and Opex might be a good opportunity to trap many late bulls. You can argue that it’s quite stupid to talk about bearish targets after many new aths and rallies and that may be so. I have given you my reasoning and now it’s gathering evidence and looking for the signals. Now comes the outrages part this week. I mentioned a couple of times now that these highs are a good place to start long term shorts. Shorting here at the tops, has the potential to be the trade of a lifetime. You don’t get that many multiple year long major trend reversals. Everyone wants to buy low and sell high but when the time comes, who has the balls and nerves to do it without losing it all? dax Dax has not moved in 2 weeks and that’s only due to weakness by the bulls. If they had the strength to produce a new ath or the retest, it would have happened by now. If you want to short the highs, you still need a wide stop to factor in a spike. So at least 17250/17300. bull case: Bulls need a strong daily close with follow through the next day. Right now they are still closing above the daily 20ema but market the doji closes are helping the bears more than the bulls. Since most indexes rallied so much the last days, the bull case for dax is very weak imo. bear case: Bears need to show strength and a daily close below 16950. If they get that, i think the odds of dax trading quickly down to 16650 are high. They see the 4 tops that failed to close above 17132 and wait for bulls to finally give up. They got 3 days of lower highs and lower lows, so we are already in a bear channel inside this bigger trading range. But we are also in multiple triangles so market will break out soon. outlook last week: “Neutral here. Both sides have reasonable arguments and i don’t like to guess these odds around 50/50. Just wait for strength with follow through. Will update this anyway in my daily updates“ → Last Sunday we traded 17025 and now we are at 17032, outlooks do not get better than that. short term: bearish. we will get a big move down next week or the week after. could go sideways for week before the move. odds clearly favor sideways, just to be very clear about that, yet i think bearish price action is reasonable and due. medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
DAX Will it drop at the top of the 1-year Channel Up?DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on the previous declines within the pattern, there are high probabilities of seeing a minimum of -6.50% pull-back. That gives us a Sell Target at 16000. The absolute bottom on the long-term based on the 2023 price action is the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which formed the market Lows of March 20 2023 and October 27 2023. If the index closes a 1D candle above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up, then we will drop the sell and buy the break-out instead, targeting 17600, which would complete a +20.90% rise from the October Low, symmetrical to the rise on the December 20 2022 Low. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingShot