2024-01-18 - dax price action update
Good Morning,
i could see dax breaking out of this bull channel to rally upwards. I'd look only for longs here. Here is my recap from yesterday after hours to give more context:
Let’s look at the 1h tf because today closed 10 points above the opening price. That tell’s you enough. Opex sold off 100 points to eu open and bulls could not get this above 16560. Bears tried multiple times to push this below 16500 but every attempt was bought. One side tries to push the market into a direction just so many times before they give up. This brings us to an adjusted big lower bear channel line so market is free to move up imo. We will trade sideways to up in the globex session which would bring the 1h 20ema closer or we can get above it. More reasons why we market could go up. Bar 10 + 16 today formed a double bottom and bar 16 + 19 could already have set the new bull channel upwards. If you look at the daily chart, you can clearly see 3 pushes down and an expanding triangle. Lows from 2023-12-18 + 2024-01-05 + 2024-01-17. Do i have a short term bear case? Not really, i think the odds that we break below that channel and close low are below 25%.
short term: up
medium-long term: down
D-DAX
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 18/01/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded. The primary scenario suggests that wave 4 as a WXY structure should be in. If we do not see upward price action, we are working on a deeper ABC correction.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 17/01/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded. The primary scenario suggests that we are working on wave 4 as a WXY structure.
DAX Channel Down aiming at 16000DAX (DE40) has transitioned into a Channel Down pattern following the December 14 top rejection on the Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is fast approaching as the first level of Support but we expect it downtrend to bottom lower as resembles the declines of August 2023, March 2023 and December 2022 both on price and 1D RSI terms.
All those declines have been extended at least to -6.50% so if the current pattern continues to replicate them, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test. As a result our Target is 16000, exactly at the top of the Support Zone. We will buy for the medium-term once the 1D RSI starts making Higher Lows (buy on the 2nd Higher Low) at below neutral levels. The 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) is the long-term Support.
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 15/01/2024 (+ HTF)In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded. The primary scenario suggests that wave 4 has finished as an ABC structure. Doing the double correction as a WXY cannot be excluded.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 12/01/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded. The primary scenario suggests that wave 4 has finished as an ABC structure.
DAX to find buyers at market levels?GER40 - 24h expiry
Short term bias has turned positive.
Levels close to the 50% pullback level of 16724 found buyers.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
Prices have reacted from 16444.
We look to Buy at 16725 (stop at 16645)
Our profit targets will be 16925 and 16985
Resistance: 16885 / 16962 / 17004
Support: 16790 / 16724 / 16657
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 10/01/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded. The primary scenario suggests that wave 4 has finished as an ABC structure.
Siemens Healthineers: Not yet done ☝️Siemens Healthineers took a step south at the beginning of the year, but has since almost made up for this setback on the upside. Nevertheless, we have drawn up a new alternative scenario with a 30% probability on the chart, according to which the current rise would already be completed with the last high in the form of the magenta-colored wave alt.(X). Accordingly, the price would fall below the support level of €45.51 earlier and consequently into our turquoise-colored Target Zone between €40.32 and €36.13. As part of our primary scenario, however, we give the stock a little more room on the upside - namely until just above the resistance at €53.98 - in order to underpin the top of the regular magenta-colored wave (x). Only then should it dive into the turquoise Target Zone.
GER40 ideaAfter price broke structure to the downside, it retraced and retested a supply zone before preceding to break further structure with momentum. Before it broke the latest low, it formed liquidity right below a golden zone that it is currently retracing towards. It is this liquidity that it could use to fuel it's move to the downside to take out the latest weak low since it is now confirmed that price has just shifted to a bearish overflow.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 09/01/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded. The primary scenario suggests that wave 4 has finished as an ABC structure.
DAX: Strong selling expected.DAX has turned bullish again on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.214, MACD = 155.000, ADX = 20.016) as it is posting the strongest daily candle of the last 30 days. We consider this move to be counter trend as the Bearish Divergence that is being staged on the 1D RSI looks like the one in late February 2023. That one also posted a counter trend rise on February 24th that tested the Resistance and then pulled back by -7.83% to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Consequently we are shorting the current rally and will target the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 15,800), which is slightly under the S1 level and the 1D MA200.
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 08/01/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded. The primary scenario suggests that we are now working on wave 4 as an ABC structure.
DAX The decline isn't over but MACD can give a timely buy.DAX (DE40) gave us an excellent sell signal last time we looked into it (December 14 2023, see chart below), as the 1D MACD Bearish Cross, was our sell signal:
Our 16500 short-term target has already been hit, and we now shift our focus on the medium-term as it appears that this pull-back will most likely be extended to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least.
It was a similar correction on December 13 2022, which after almost reaching the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level (as the currrent High), it got rejected back to the 1D MA50 on a -6.50% decline. As a result our sell target is now 16150 (1D MA50 contact) and we will buy again for the long-term only when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, which was the case on January 03 2023.
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 05/01/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded. The primary scenario suggests that we are now working on wave 4 as an ABC structure.
#DAX - 03 JanI was wrong in the direction yesterday. DAX did rally from opening to my target, it hit higher resistance before faltering. I said NDX had a strong resistance and it held completely.
Interestingly, DJIA held the selling and see the recovery in DAX towards the half way but NDX is weak. Price action is neutral to bearish and price opened within the BZ. I would say can play both sides today.
Market would need to retest the lows before any recovery IMO. So IMO, I will look at 16823 for a possible short to re-test 16677. 16645 is the next support for a possible long for a near term low. Overall, I am still neutral of the whole move (from bullish)
Dox and extension in the upward trend? How much correction??!Hello there,
I hope you're having a great start to the new year. I wish you all the best in your trading ventures and a happy new year with your loved ones.
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 03/01/2024 (+ HTF)In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, we are observing ending upward structures. However, another high as a wave 5 cannot be excluded.
#DAX - 2 Jan I gave a short from 16803 on Friday to 16721 (). 16803 was traded, highs at 16811 before it tanked to 16723 and it rallied back to the highs.
The sell down was tied to the down move in US indices before the recovery. DAX was relatively strongly.
Overall, price action is bullish for monthly, weekly, daily IMO. Currently DAX gapped up and is testing above resistance. Despite the down move on Friday, overall price action is still bullish, trend is still up, thus looking for further upside. 16775, confluence of levels will be a good level to look for longs, targeting 16865 and 16905.
US30 LongsUS30 is breaking All-Time-Highs.
Trend is still Bullish.
Market opened with bullish momentum; waiting for retracement to enter long positions.
Aggressively enter new long positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position is negative.
Stop loss placed under bullish breakout.
SPX LongsMarket has been breaking All-Time-Highs.
Overall Market Trend is still bullish.
Same sized retracements (indicated by green trend-lines) have printed, along with a subsequent bullish breakout, confirm continuation of uptrend.
Invalidation at 4733.3 (stop loss placed)
No profit target (new highs cannot be accurately determined at this time).
Aggressively enter new positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position goes negative.
Look for similarities in US30, NAS100, FTSE, DAX & NIKKEI.