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Airbus: Turbulence! 🌪️ 🛫Airbus shares continue to struggle at the resistance level of €139.40. In our primary assumption, the price should soon leave this level behind and complete the magenta-colored (1) with the top of the turquoise wave 5, before it goes down again significantly in the same color wave (2). If this downward journey is prolonged to the immediate vicinity of the support at €48.08, a new low of the gray old.II can be expected, shifted to the right. Primarily, however, we believe that the stock is already on the upswing of gray III, whose five-part magenta substructure should break out to its impulsive (3) after the low of (2) and set new all-time highs in the process.
EURONEXT:AIRLong
by MarketIntel
A powerful impulse with a small correction pattern!Hello! I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market. While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision. To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand. I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you. Sincerely
XETR:DAXLong
by mehdi47abbasi79
DAX to breakdown at overbought extremes?GER40 - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Current prices have reacted from a low of 16662, however, we expect further losses to follow. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17004. An Evening Doji Star formation has been posted at the high. A break of the recent low at 16662 should result in a further move lower. Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes. We look to Sell a break of 16658 (stop at 16758) Our profit targets will be 16418 and 16348 Resistance: 16793 / 16850 / 16950 Support: 16720 / 16662 / 16600 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
DAX: Channel Up keeps it bullish. Strong correction if it breaksDAX is trading inside a Channel Up pattern since October 27th and it has been intact for so long that the 1D timeframe remains overbought (RSI = 78.050, MACD = 373.200, ADX = 82.264). Since it is holding the 4H MA50 over the bottom of the Channel Up, we remain bullish aiming at a +4.66% rise (TP = 17,400), which is the lowest it has registered inside this pattern. If the price crosses under the Channel Up however, we will short aiming near the S1 level (TP = 16,000), which can test the 1D MA50. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by InvestingScope
1
DAX Will the 1D Golden Cross pull it back like last time?DAX (DE40) is trading within a 16-month Channel Up and is currently on the second most aggressive bullish leg, about to form the 2nd 1D Golden Cross within that time span. The 1D RSI is above 85.00 touching historically overbought levels while the price is approaching the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous Higher High of the Channel, which is below where the Channel's first bullish leg of October - November 2022 peaked and then, after a 1D Golden Cross formation, pulled back to its middle trend-line and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite those bearish indicators, we will sell only after the 1D MACD forms a Bearish Cross, which has been the most consistent sell signal throughout this period of time and target 16500 (Channel's middle). On the other hand, if the index breaks above the 1.382 Fib first, we will buy the break-out and target 18000, which is the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up and +24.20% rise from the bottom (similar to the November 2022 rally). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingShot
DAX continues to break into new all time highs.GER40 - 24h expiry Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 16823. There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end. Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 16715. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our outlook is bullish. We look to Buy at 16715 (stop at 16615) Our profit targets will be 16965 and 17025 Resistance: 16823 / 16900 / 17000 Support: 16767 / 16700 / 16650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: A week littered with landmines While we look ahead to the BoJ meeting (19 Dec) and keep a vigil on headlines from local press on potential policy tweaks, this week it's not hard to find tier-one catalysts and event risk for traders to navigate their exposures over. On the central bank side, we look for guidance from the Fed, the ECB, the BoE, Norges Bank and the SNB. For traders who focus on the higher beta LATAM FX - MXN and BRL - we get the Banxico and BCB meetings. We see preliminary PMIs in the US, UK, and EU, with the UK and Aus reporting employment data. The US CPI print gets close attention and after Friday’s NFP report this could have big implications on the pricing of a March cut from the Fed - at this point, I am inclined to fade current rate cut expectations, as it still feels like June is a more likely starting point for policy easing. However, a below consensus CPI print would clearly strengthen the case for sooner easing. US treasuries will again be influential in driving the USD and gold, and while the FOMC meeting and US CPI print will be a clear risk, so could the US Treasury Departments scheduled FWB:37B 10yr (12 Dec 05:00 AEDT) & $21b 30yr bond auctions. I am leaning long of USDs this week but would get greater confidence on a break of 104.31 in the DXY, and a further push towards 7.2400 in USDCNH. USDCHF looks to eye a move into 0.8900. I am still biased long of US equity indices, with the NAS100 getting good attention as it looks to break the consolidation highs. EU equity is where the momentum traders have focused attention, with the GER40 having closed higher in 8 of the past 10 sessions and sitting at new highs. We see good participation in the rally, with 93% of stocks above the 50-day MA, 72% above their 200-day MA, and 50% at 4-week highs. Perhaps too hot to initiate longs, pullbacks are likely buying opportunities in a bullish trend. Gold has modest downside risk and I look for 1980/70 to come into play, while SpotCrude upside has been confined by the 5-day EMA, so break here and we should see a quick move to $73.06. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: UK employment and wages report (12 Dec 18:00 AEDT) – UK wages are expected to increase 7.6% 3m/yoy, a slowdown from the 7.9% yoy pace seen in September. Even though wages are falling, the absolute level of wages still supports the case for the BoE to ease the bank rate in 2H24. Australia employment report (14 Dec 11:30 AEDT) – the median estimate from economists is for 11k jobs created in November, and the U/E rate to tick up to 3.8%. On the week, I would look to fade rallies in AUDUSD into 0.6670. EURAUD shorts look compelling, although AUD longs would be keen to see a better tape in the CN50. US CPI (13 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – the marquee event risk of the week - the market looks for headline CPI to come in at 0.0% mom / 3.1% yoy, and core CPI at 0.3% mom / 4% yoy. Post US nonfarm payrolls, the market has reduced some of the lofty easing expectations for 2024, with US swaps now pricing 111bp of cuts by Dec 2024. With the market broadly short of USDs, the pain trade is a hotter CPI print, where core CPI comes in above 0.35% mom, resulting in the odds of a March rate cut being pared right back. Risk bulls and USD shorts will want to see a core CPI print below 0.25%, which keeps a cut in March firmly on the table. Brazil central bank meeting (14 Dec 08:30 AEDT) – The BCB is expected to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 11.75%. The broad view is the BCB will now cut at every meeting until the policy rate is closer to 10%. Swiss National Bank meeting (14 Dec 19:30 AEDT) – CHF swaps price a 20% chance of a 25bp cut at this meeting and 67bp by Dec 2024 (or just under three 25bp cuts). Biased towards USDCHF upside this week, with conviction increasing through 0.8828. Norges Bank meeting (14 Dec 20:00 AEDT) – we see NOK swaps price a 28% chance of a 25bp hike at this meeting, which seems underpriced. A 25bp hike wouldn’t surprise at all, an outcome that could promote a solid rally in the NOK. BoE meeting (14 Dec 23:00 AEDT) – In theory, this meeting should be a low-volatility affair - There is no chance of changing policy at this meeting, and the BoE should vote 7-2 in favour of no change. With 3 cuts priced by late 2024, there are modest upside risks for the GBP at this meeting. FOMC meeting (14 Dec 06:00 AEDT) – The Fed will provide new economic projections here, although we shouldn’t see any big changes in their inflation, growth, or unemployment estimates. The focus will be on their projections for the fed funds rate (or the ‘dots’ plot) in 2024. On balance, we should see the median projection for the fed funds rate in 2024 being taken from 5.1% to 4.875%, implying a base case of two 25bp cut next year, although there are risks of a deeper change to 4.6%. With US swaps pricing the fed funds rate at 4.21% by Dec 2024, if the 2024 ‘dot’ is set at 4.875% it could result in USD short covering. The tone of the statement and Powell's presser could also promote USD volatility, where Jay Powell should make it clear they’re not currently talking about easing. Modest hawkish risks in this meeting. China monthly growth data (15 Dec 13:00 AEDT) – the market will see data on industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales. The consensus is for a strong lift in activity, notably in the November retail sales report which is eyed at 12.5% (from 7.6%). China’s equity market continues to attract sellers, and we see no let-up in the bearish trend. We therefore watch to see if the data can stabilize the tape and attract better buyers. US retail sales (15 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for a decline of 0.1% mom, with the control group element rising 0.2%. The outcome could influence Q4 GDP nowcast models, which currently suggest the US is growing at 1.25%. Banxico meeting (Mexico) (15 Dec 06:00 AEDT) – there is no chance of a cut at this meeting, but the MXN will be sensitive to guidance on the future path of easing. March seems a likely starting point for Banxico to start its cutting cycle. MXNJPY has seen increased interest and should be on the radar given the BoJ’s meeting next week. ECB meeting ( 15 Dec 00:15 AEDT) – the market will see new economic projections from the ECB, with their core CPI estimates expected to drop a touch to 2.8% in 2024, and 2024 GDP at 0.8% (from 1%). Post ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel’s comments last week on inflation, the door is wide open for a rate cut in April - so EUR traders will be looking at signs around a readiness to cut. We should hear more on the future of PEPP reinvestments and the acceleration of reducing the ECB’s balance sheet. EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (15 Dec 20:00 AEDT) - the consensus is we see the EU manufacturing index coming in at 44.5 (from 44.2), and services at 49 (48.7). Further poor numbers are expected, but recent trends show EU economic data – while weak - has been largely coming in better-than-feared. UK S&P global manufacturing and services PMI (15 Dec 20:30 AEDT) – the consensus is we see the UK manufacturing index come in at 47.5 (from 47.2), and services at 51.0 (50.9). The market should be more sensitive to the service print, so a read above 52.0 should promote a GBP rally. A read below 50.0 should see GBP under pressure. US S&P global manufacturing and services PMI (16 Dec 01:45 AEDT) - the consensus is we see the manufacturing index come in at 49.3 (from 49.4), and services at 50.7 (50.8).
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
1
DAX CEEPS CLIMING AMONG UNIMPRESSIVE ECONOMIC DATA European stock markets rallied today amid indications that major central banks might have concluded their tightening cycle. The DAX index in Germany edged up by 0.1%, fueled by growing investor optimism about the European Central Bank's pause on interest rate hikes despite bleak economic data. The Eurozone faces a potential recession in the last quarter of the year, with German factory orders plummeting by 3.7% in October. As consumers grapple with high interest rates and prices, European retail sales are expected to rise marginally by 0.2% on the month, showing an annual drop of 1.1%. ECB's Isabel Schnabel's comments hint at a halt to rate hikes, triggering a decline in the euro against the dollar. Speculation on impending rate cuts has propelled the DAX to record highs. The uncertain market awaits the Fed's meeting next week and the ECB's final rate decision, crucial factors in determining the EUR/USD's next move. For now, a dovish Fed or an upturn in European data could signal a potential turnaround for EUR/USD bulls. On the technical side, MACD is still showing Buy signals, while RSI is deep into overbought territory. If the price continues to climb, it might reach levels of 16880, but if it drops, it might fall to the support level of 16277. As a pivot point might be considered 16493 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
XETR:DAX
by legacyFXofficial
DAX's new All Time High sends a message to indices globallyDAX hit a new All Time High level, leading world stock indices on this rally and sending a clear message to markets globally: This rally has only just started. As you see on this 1M (monthly) time-frame, with the obvious exception of the COVID crash anomaly (Black Swan event), the index has been trading within a very stable Channel Up pattern since the start of the 2008 crisis. The 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) has been the absolute Support during this time, holding even during the COVID market crash. The recent November rally after October's bottom on a 3 month straight decline, is completing a very rare but powerful bullish signal that has only happened another 3 times during this 16-year pattern (5 if we count smaller occasions). As you can see, every time the index broke above a dashed Lower Highs trend-line of a correction wave, it then pulled-back to test it and after it held, it initiated a strong and lengthy rally. There have been two major Highs on this Channel Up pattern, and those are displayed perfectly on the Sine Waves peaks (April 2015, January 2022). Both have been exactly on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension since the first correction following a market High (July 2007, April 2015). Those occasions that are matched with the current rebound more accurately based on the 1M RSI are marked with a blue circle. The minimum % rise that those 5 events have delivered is the +22.10% of February 2020, which of course could have been higher if it wasn't cut short by the COVID crash. In any case a +22.10% rise from the October 2023 Low would match perfectly the top of the Channel Up and will make a technical Higher High for the pattern. As a result, our target is 17800 on DAX. What the blue-print of the Sine Waves show though for long term investors is that the Cyclical Peak therefore target around the end of 2028 - beginning 2029 is 20500. Those that patiently wait for corrections to take advantage of and buy, will get rewarded based on this historic behavioral pattern. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XETR:DAXLong
by TradingShot
DAX: Approaching the All Time High for a low risk short.DAX has turned vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 80.023, MACD = 247.400, ADX = 61.180) with the 1D RSI reaching the highest levels since April 5th 2021. It is fast approaching R2 (16,535) which is the index' All Time High, technically a low risk short opportunity. We are looking to take it on next week's opening and target the 1D MA200-0.382 Fibonacci band (TP = 15,800). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by InvestingScope