DAX: Amazing Channel Down symmetry calls for a buy.DAX hit (even breached) the bottom of the Channel Down on the 1D timeframe and reacted with a rebound. It is not a strong one yet as the 1D technical outlook is still bearish (RSI = 34.478, MACD = -177.100, ADX = 34.069) but the remarkable symmetry with the two bearish legs prior, calls for a currently undervalued price for the short term.
Technically the two rebounds after making LL inside this Channel Down, reached a little over the 0.5 Fibonacci level. The buy signal becomes even stronger if we take into consideration that we got the first 1D RSI Bullish Divergence. We are buying having a modest target on the 0.5 Fib (TP = 15,100), which depending on how aggressive the current reaction is, can even reach the 1D MA50.
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D-DAX
25102023 - #DAXYesterday's long at 14746 worked almost to perfection as DAX hit the level and rallied 150 points (). What is probably very interesting, IMO, the strength of DAX yesterday.
Despite the down moves in SPX and NDX, DAX was resilient, only giving small pullbacks, as it closed near the highs. If you ask me, price action is much bullish but as you can see from the chart, there is an overlap of the DBZ and a triple resistance zone above.
So I say today would likely be a very important day, as bond was sideways yesterday; thus today we want to see if bond yield can drop further (indices up). And also at the same time, we want to see if DAX's bullish price action yesterday is real, for a further upside. SPX and NDX were lackluster, partly due to earnings; thus not able to get much clue from there. Can only say that I will be cautious for today.
As mentioned, price action is bullish but price is at resistance. Again, will not discount the possibility of a pullback first; thus need to be cautious to look for longs; which IMO, if market give a dip first before attacking the upside, it will be more bullish. But if market goes up to the resistance, especially near the 14960 level, would be cautious for a deep pullback to 14800.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 25/10/2023In the higher time frame, we have completed a WXY correction but as forecasted this was not yet the wave (2) low. The lower time frame was showing corrective price action indicating more wave (2) downside. Several bearish scenarios can be considered because we took out the 04/10/2023 low. In the lower time frame, before going down, we might see some upside as a wave (iv) or wave X.
Critical 4 weeks for DAX Following weekly chart.
The last time when I get a short signal to in weekly chart was 4 weeks before COVID crash. (red area in the chart)
Now I got the same signal and unfortunately this is the most trustworthy signal for me.
I think this 4 weeks are really critical and what I expect is we might way to go to gaps below.
Be careful and be careful!
Don't give up on the DAX just yetYes, the DAX is clearly within an established downtrend on the daily chart. And its drawdown from its record high is relatively shallow at just -11.5% by historical standards - meaning we suspect further losses could be coming.
Yet its failure to break beneath the December high and March low has not gone unnoticed. And given it formed a bullish hammer around these key level with a mild bullish RSI divergence, we see the potential for some mean reversion over the near term.
Keep in mind that we have flash PMIs for the US and Europe today along with a speech from ECB President Lagarde, US GDP, PCE inflation and a Jerome Powell speech also in focus this week. And that leaves plenty of room for volatility for global markets.
24102023 - #DAXYesterday's levels worked well as market dipped off PZ, dropped to the support zone below before rallying back to the PZ. But there was a pullback again towards the end of the day.
Are we going to see a repeat of last Tuesday? Price is still below the BZ thus, cautious on the up move. Ideally, from current looks, we would want market to make a higher low (it could test the lows and rebound).
Lots of news today from UK, Europe and US thus it would decide this next move. But anyway, IMO, I would try a long if price goes back above PZ 14748 for a move to 14860 (50 Fib) and 14954 (possible high for today).
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 24/10/2023In the higher time frame, we have completed a WXY correction but as forecasted this was not yet the wave (2) low. The lower time frame was showing corrective price action indicating more wave (2) downside. Several bearish scenarios can be considered because we took out the 04/10/2023 low. In the lower time frame, before going down, we might see some upside as a wave (iv) or wave X.
Will DAX turnaround today?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
A break of the recent high at 14920 should result in a further move higher.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to Buy a break of 14922 (stop at 14822)
Our profit targets will be 15172 and 15232
Resistance: 14920 / 15000 / 15100
Support: 14780 / 14700 / 14600
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX continues in the downward move.DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Our short-term bias remains negative.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
15100 has been pivotal.
Bespoke resistance is located at 15100.
The preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
20 4-hour EMA is at 15080.
We look to Sell at 15098 (stop at 15198)
Our profit targets will be 14848 and 14788
Resistance: 14981 / 15100 / 15200
Support: 14916 / 14800 / 14700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 20/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher time frame, we have completed a WXY correction but this is probably not yet the wave (2) low. The lower time frame suggests further corrective price action which will result in more wave (2) downside. Several bearish scenarios can be considered if we take out the 04/10/2023 low.
DAX: Rebound expected to test the 1D MA50.DAX is trading inside a Channel Down since July 31st and lately has been on the decline after a rejection on the 1D MA50. Naturally, its 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 38.140, MACD = -103.800, ADX = 23.717) but also low enough to justify a short term rebound.
We expect one last 1D MA50 that will decide the long term trend and based on the previous -6.50% pre-bearish leg, this should be on the 0.786 Fibonacci level. That is marginally under the top of the Channel Down and that is our target (TP = 15,450).
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 19/10/2023In the higher timeframe, it looks like we have completed a WXY correction. If the low holds, the wave (2) correction can be finished. However, the lower time frame suggests further corrective price action which will result in more wave (2) downside. Several bearish scenarios can be considered if we take out the 04/10/2023 low.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 18/10/2023In the higher timeframe, it looks like we have completed a WXY correction. If the low holds, the wave (2) correction can be finished. However, the lower time frame suggests further corrective price action which will result in more wave (2) downside. Several bearish scenarios can be considered if we take out the 04/10/2023 low.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 17/10/2023In the higher timeframe, it looks like we have completed a WXY correction. If the low holds, the wave (2) correction can be finished. However, the lower time frame suggests further corrective price action which will result in more wave (2) downside. Several bearish scenarios can be considered if we take out the 04/10/2023 low.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 16/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher timeframe, it looks like we have completed a WXY correction. If the low holds, the wave (2) correction can be finished. However, the lower time frame suggests further corrective price action which will result in more wave (2) downside. Several bearish scenarios can be considered if we take out the 04/10/2023 low.
GER40 Analysis 13Oct2023In my opinion, GER40 presents a slightly different perspective. If you observe the movement of the wave, you will notice a curve that is currently supporting it. Usually, when such a curve forms, the price tends to follow the same movement. Therefore, I believe that in the medium term, the price is likely to remain bearish.
Furthermore, if you look at the current situation, it is possible that we are in the bearish channel, which would mean that the price will continue to follow this downward trend.
DAX Short term sell signal on the MA200 (4h).DAX got rejected on the MA200 (4h) and is pulling back.
This is heavy pressure as it took place near the top of the 2 month Channel Down.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the first green (4h) candle.
2. Buy if Resistance (1) breaks.
Targets:
1. 15230 (Rising Support and -2.20% decline like the September 5th pull back).
2. 16000 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) just formed a Sell Cross. This amplifies the short term selling momentum.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: