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Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JUNE 26, 2023The momentum of stocks is affected by global growth concerns and central bank actions, while the euro experiences an upswing. Key News: Eurozone - ECB McCaul Speaks Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speaks The US stock market is currently experiencing a decline amidst deteriorating global growth forecasts, primarily attributed to weak global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings. This worrisome trend is particularly prominent in Europe, where the risk of a severe economic downturn is higher compared to the United States. Consequently, the dollar is expected to maintain its support in the short term due to these circumstances. Throughout this week, stocks have faced unfavorable conditions, resulting in the unraveling of various trades involving large-cap technology companies. Specifically, the Nasdaq index is taking a considerable hit, predominantly due to profit-taking in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. The prevailing sentiment among investors is to withdraw their profits from AI-related investments, contributing to the downward pressure on the Nasdaq. Nasdaq daily chart Looking ahead to the upcoming week, the focus will shift towards a fresh wave of inflation releases following the conclusion of major central bank decisions. The euro has experienced a robust month, benefiting from the market's anticipation of the European Central Bank (ECB) adopting a more aggressive approach in raising interest rates compared to previous expectations. Despite signs of moderating inflation and sluggish economic activity, the ECB has expressed its intention to pursue higher rates. However, this commitment may carry risks in the long term, potentially limiting the ECB's flexibility in responding to changing economic conditions. Nevertheless, the rally in European yields has made the euro an increasingly attractive investment option for market participants. Furthermore, the weakness observed in the US dollar and the Japanese yen has provided additional support to the euro, as foreign exchange dynamics are often influenced by relative performance. EUR/USD daily chart As we look to the future, a critical question arises regarding the momentum of the euro's rally. The answer to this question is likely to be influenced by the forthcoming inflation report scheduled for release on Friday and its implications for the European Central Bank's (ECB) future decisions. Throughout this year, inflation has displayed a consistent downward trend, and recent business surveys indicate that this trend has persisted into June. Notably, selling prices have been rising at the slowest pace in over two years, further contributing to the overall picture of declining inflationary pressures. In terms of market performance, the DAX index has witnessed a notable decline, predominantly driven by a sharp decrease in the shares of Siemens Energy. The company's stock plummeted by over 30% following its decision to withdraw its full-year guidance due to challenges faced by its Spanish Gamesa operation. This development has had a significant impact on the DAX index's overall performance and has garnered attention from market participants. DAX daily chart In a similar vein, the FTSE 100 index has encountered downward pressure, resulting in a decline below the crucial 7,500 level. This descent has brought the index back to levels observed earlier in the trading period, reminiscent of the beginning of the year. The FTSE 100's retreat reflects the prevailing market sentiment and highlights the challenges and uncertainties currently influencing the broader market landscape. FTSE 100 daily chart In the United States, the week will commence with the unveiling of significant economic indicators, including durable goods orders and new home sales for the month of May on Tuesday. This will be followed by the release of crucial data on Friday, including the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, personal consumption, and income figures for the same month. In recent weeks, there has been a notable back-and-forth between Federal Reserve officials and market participants, resembling a game of chicken. While policymakers have signaled their intention to implement two more interest rate hikes throughout the remainder of the year, investors have only priced in expectations for one. The ultimate determinant of who is right in this scenario will depend on the persistency of inflationary pressures. The outcome will carry implications for the performance of the US dollar, as its value is intricately linked to interest rate differentials and market expectations. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Throughout this month, the US dollar has encountered downward pressure, primarily influenced by two factors. Firstly, there has been market skepticism surrounding the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, which has created uncertainty among investors. Secondly, the prevailing optimistic sentiment in stock markets has reduced the demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. Gold, on the other hand, has faced a challenging couple of months as Wall Street anticipates more aggressive tightening measures from central banks across Europe. The strong demand for Treasuries, driven by investor concerns about the global growth outlook, has caused the dollar to rally. However, as the stock market experiences a more pronounced selloff, gold is beginning to attract safe-haven flows. This is evident as gold prices have fallen to the $1920 level, prompting some investors to seek refuge in the precious metal as a hedge against market volatility and uncertainty. XAU/USD daily chart Gold received an additional boost when Federal Reserve official Bostic expressed his preference for no further rate hikes for the remainder of the year. This sentiment supported the precious metal's rebound. However, the momentum of the rebound waned when the latest PMI data failed to demonstrate sufficient weakness in the service sector, which would have justified a pause in rate hikes. Looking ahead, the upcoming week will play a crucial role in shaping expectations regarding future Fed rate hikes. This will be influenced by the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) readings and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell. If market participants, as reflected in swap futures, start to believe that the Fed is likely to implement two more rate increases, gold may remain vulnerable. However, if risk aversion intensifies and investors seek safe-haven assets, gold could experience an influx of buying pressure. Key support for gold is anticipated at the $1900 level, indicating a price level where buying interest could emerge. On the other hand, resistance is likely to be encountered around the $1960 region, signifying a level where selling pressure may intensify. These levels will be closely monitored by traders and investors as they assess the future trajectory of gold prices.
by FOREXN1
9
DAX: Two buy entries for the long term.DAX turned technically bearish on the 1D time frame (RSI = 42.479, MACD = 3.900, ADX = 32.769) with the RSI approaching the lows of March 17th. This is our first long term buy entry as the price is not only at the bottom of the (blue) short term Channel Up but also testing the 1D MA100 for the first time since March 20th. If the price closes a 1D candle under the 1D MA100, it will most likely fail to hold the S1 and S2 supports as well and instead go for a full -6.70% decline extension to 15,350 such as the mid March and mid December correction legs. That will be the second buy entry. In both cases our target is the short term Channel's HH (TP = 16,500). Pay attention to the RSI also where the bottom of the Channel Up will be an additional buy signal. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by InvestingScope
13
26062023 - #DAXLast Friday, market sold off after Thursday's somewhat bearish close. It sold perfectly to support before an equally fast recovery. Market closed near the mid point. Weekly chart looks bearish with price below weekly BZ. Also, looking at how the monthly candle at this point of time, my thought was that if price trades below May's low, that could trigger downside. But at the same time, we also had the Russia news over the week end which probably seem to indicate a gap down but no it did not. Having said so much, we should see further downside today. But let's see what premarket brings. Price is now basing above PZ, thus short term wise, could see a move to 15890 and even 15924 first before a rejection; looking for a move to 15710 or so, where we look for any long opportunities. If market did not trigger the above 2 levels, look for a move below 15824, test and rejection for the move lower.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by FadeMeIfYouCan
Will DAX find buyers at market?GER40 - 24h expiry Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market. The primary trend remains bullish. The 1 day moving average should provide support at 15923. Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Bespoke support is located at 15900. We look to Buy at 15902 (stop at 15802) Our profit targets will be 16152 and 16192 Resistance: 15950 / 16000 / 16050 Support: 15912 / 15860 / 15800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX Sell signal but gets invalidated on this levelDAX is on a 2-day pullback with a new (dashed) Channel Up emerging. The index is already inside two long term Channel Up patterns. The RSI (1d) crossed under its MA level, calling for a technical pullback inside the borders of these Channel Up patterns. Trading Plan: 1. Sell as long as the price remains under Resistance (1). 2. Buy if it breaks above it. Targets: 1. 15740 (bottom on two Channel Up patterns). 2. 16950 (top on two Channel Up patterns). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) has a Rising Support. Keep that in mind as if it holds you might consider closing the short position earlier. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by TradingBrokersView
8
DAX: Holding today's low can lead to 16,500DAX is trading inside multiple short and long term Channel Up patterns, an indication of a strong bullish trend, showcased by the green 1D technicals (RSI = 59.394, MACD = 107.100, ADX = 32.591). As long as the 1D RSI stays over the MA line, we remain bullish (TP = 16,500). If it breaks under it, we will target first the dashed Channel bottom (TP1 = 16,000) and after a 1D candle close under it, extend to S1 (TP2 = 15,635). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by InvestingScope
1
DAX to reach a new all-time high today?GER40 - Intraday Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment. The bias is to break to the upside. The primary trend remains bullish. We look to Buy a break of 16351 (stop at 16251) Our profit targets will be 16601 and 16651 Resistance: 16340 / 16400 / 16500 Support: 16300 / 16200 / 16100 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA