Fake inverse Head and Shoulders in DAX#Germany #factoryorders -5.8% MoM among other bad economic data. Fake inverse head and shoulders. Cheap energy prices are not guaranteed under war uncertainty. Not looking good.
D-DAX
DAX This week offers a great buying opportunity.DAX (DE40) has been trading within the same Channel Up since the bottom of the Inflation Crisis on the week of October 03 2022. The recent August 05 rebound on the 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) was nothing but the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, the 3rd in total.
The previous two, following their respective Bearish Legs (dotted Channel Down), they first reached a Resistance just above the previous High and after a pull-back and break-out above it, the continued for the 2nd part of the Leg.
It appears that in symmetrical terms, we are exactly there, right before the start of the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg. Interestingly enough, the 1W MACD completed a Bullish Cross just last week (been the most solid bottom confirmation in the past Legs) so if anything, the rally could be even stronger.
In any case, keeping in mind the strict Resistance offered by the Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up, our target is still 20000, which is just below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is the Fib level where both previous Higher Highs of the Channel Up were priced.
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DAX H4 | Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?The DAX (GER30) has reversed off a pullback support and could potentially climb higher from here.
Buy entry is at 19,000.03 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,800.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 19,337.11 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - Look at the xetra 1h chart because it’s clearer there than on futures. 4 legs down and we have not touched the 1h 20ema on xetra since Tuesday. Strong follow through selling and there is an open gap down to 18928. Since we are seeing continues episodes of buying, I do expect this gap to get closed on a spike and we might go neutral or green into the weekend. We are right at the bull trend line from beginning of August and I highly doubt it will get broken on the second touch.
comment : Clear picture on the xetra chart. Close enough to the bull trend line to expect a big bounce upwards to 19200 or higher. If bears win this, next good support is 18800ish. I favor the bulls if they break strongly above the 1h 20ema tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 18950 on xetra)
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls are trying and buying in between the bear legs and one side will give up for a bigger move soon. Since this is the second touch of the bull trend line from early August, I have to favor the bulls. Their first target is a 1h bar close above 19100 and if the move is strong enough, we see more bears giving up and they will probably wait before shorting again higher. Second target is 19200 (50% pullback).
Invalidation is below 18800.
bear case: Bears continue to sell every rip near the 1h 20ema but the selling is getting weaker and they barely made new lows today. It’s either go big or go home for the bears. Strong break below the bull trend line 18900 is their only option or give up and try to short higher (19200 or wait for 19500).
Invalidation is above 19150.
short term: Neutral again at 19000. Big round number, should be huge support and my bias is bullish for tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Short near the 1h 20ema, again. Or buying 19000. Obvious trades in hindsight…
DAX LONG FROM SUPPORT|
✅DAX is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 18,900
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target at 19,200
LONG🚀
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2024-10-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - 3 clear legs down and today’s selling could not reach the lower bear trend line, which showed weakness by the bears. We are close enough to the daily 20ema to expect bulls scaling into longs and hoping for a retest of 19400/19500 or higher. 1h 20ema held today too but I expect it to be broken tomorrow. Below 19200, 19000 will come fast.
comment: Not happy with the currently drawn bear channel, since market has only 1 touch of the upper trend line. I expect sideways to up movement tomorrow until we touch it and there bears have to defend it for another try at 19200. I am neutral around 19300 and can’t see bears doing another strong leg down tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 19000, minor bull trend line got hit today)
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls bought the minor bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and probably also the daily 20ema which is only 200 points lower. It was also the August high 19217. Bulls want to make 19200 support that was previously resistance before market broke strongly above it for a new ath. Bulls know that this is the first pullback in an otherwise very strong bull trend and high 1 are almost never working strongly for bears. Bulls see this as a pullback and scaling into longs, that is why we have tails below the prior 2 daily bars. Next they want to break above the 1h 20ema and retest today’s high 19428 - above that price comes 19500 probably quick because I expect many bears to have their stops there.
Invalidation is below 19190.
bear case: Bears had 3 legs down and today’s leg was weaker than before. Not good for them. They need to defend the 1h ema or risk a test of 19428. They do not have many arguments besides trading below the 1h ema. We are still above the daily ema and both bull trend lines. Either bears show strength tomorrow or bulls will take control again. Don’t. Short. The. Hole.
Invalidation is above 19430.
short term: Neutral around 19300. Bullish above 19430 and bearish only below big bear bars below 19200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Shorting 1h 20ema again. The selling down to 19200 was weirdly strong.
DAX Buy this pullback, the rally will be resumed.DAX has completed 3 straight red days.
At the same time it has been rejected on the Rising Resistance from April.
We don't think this is the start of a larger correction, as the same rejection back in late 2023 was contained above the 1day MA50 and then resumed the rally to the 1.618 Fib.
Buy and target 20200 (Fib 1.618).
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
DAX: Anticipating a Healthy Retracement Amid Weak Eurozone DataThe DAX is showing signs of losing momentum after three consecutive bullish days, despite making new highs. Technically, it’s time for a healthy retracement towards the 19,100 zone to provide a solid base for continued bullish action. I plan to take advantage of the pullback, profiting from the downside move. If the price spikes and hits the stop loss, I will reenter the trade once the setup confirms itself again.
Technical Analysis:
• The 4H chart suggests that the market is struggling to maintain bullish momentum after the recent highs.
• A retracement towards 19,200 is expected, aligning with key support and Fibonacci levels, which would signal a healthier continuation of the uptrend.
• The price action appears to be in need of consolidation before further bullish progression.
Fundamental Analysis:
On the fundamental side, the Eurozone economy continues to struggle, as reflected in the recent PMI data. Manufacturing PMI figures across Europe are underwhelming, with most of the key economies showing contraction or slower growth:
• Spanish PMI (53.0) exceeded expectations, but other economies, such as Italy (48.3) and France (44.6), show weaker performance.
• The overall sentiment in the Eurozone remains fragile, which may further support the case for a pullback in the DAX index before any sustained bullish moves.
Given the technical and fundamental outlook, I’m positioning for a retracement in the DAX, expecting a drop to 19,100. If the trade does not play out and spikes toward my stop loss, I’ll be prepared to reenter once conditions align again. It’s essential to stay patient and trust the setup.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
DAX Bearish Below 19,260, Bullish Reversal Requires Close AboveDAX Technical Analysis:
The price has dropped and successfully reached our target of 19,100.
Today, DAX remains in a bearish trend as long as it trades below 19,260, with further downside targets at 19,100 and 18,970.
To shift into a bullish trend, the price must close at least a 1-hour candle above 19,260.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 19260
Resistance Levels: 19330, 19490, 19720
Support Levels: 19100, 18970, 18780
Trend:
Bearish trend as long as trades under 19260
previous idea:
DAX H1 | Potential bullish bounceDAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,308.79 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,222.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 19,496.25 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: Perfect bullish outlook last week and we can’t be anything but bullish going into next week as well. 5 consecutive bull bars and Thu+Fri got bigger and closed almost at the high of the day. Market held above the 15m 20ema since Thursday EU open and this should be your guide for now. If we break below, 1h 20ema is the next support and below that I favor a more complex pullback with sideways to down movement. Until bears manage that, it’s max bullishness and the bubble will probably grow to 20000 before we can talk about busting again.
Quote from last week:
comment: Monday left no doubt where we were heading and my outlook was perfect. No one wanted to buy above 19000 and we traded 300 points down again. We are contracting inside the bull wedge and will see a breakout over the next 3 days. That can go either way so I will go neutral into next week. Both sides have reasonable arguments. I do favor the bulls slightly but need confirmation for that and this would only be above 19300/19400 and that is 600 points away. We are inside a trading range 17700 - 19000 for over 6 months now. That is as neutral as it gets. We are making higher highs but by how much? Couple of points and that’s absolutely normal inside trading ranges. And if you think “bUt YoU sAiD wE aRe iN a BuLl wEdGe”, yes. Might blow your brain out but markets can trade inside a multiple of patterns on different time frames and you have to prioritize them by the one starting on the highest tf and working yourself to the lowest tf you want to trade.
comment: Big bull breakout on Friday and now the only question is, are we getting follow through and this breakout is for real or is it a bull trap? I do think both sides have reasonable arguments. Bulls have a very strong two legged move where leg 1 on the weekly chart was 11% and a measured move would bring us above 20000. Bears know that bullish breakouts above multiple bullish patterns are very rare and their chance of success small. I do favor the bulls slightly, since we left a big bull gap behind us and Friday closed at the very high. If bulls get follow through above 19500, this breakout is likely real, if we trade below 19200 again, it might go down to 19000 where the market will probably go more sideways before another impulse.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want this monthly September bar closing on it’s high and that would be a huge buy signal. Not many bears can hold long when we close above 19300, because it’s very possible that we see 20000 next. We are once again at a place where the pain trade is up and a blow off top a likely possibility. German GDP will likely be negativ this year, so let’s print the most absurd number the market can come up with. Market always goes where the most liquidity is and it’s obviously up, likely due to short squeezing.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears need to close this giant bull gap or more traders will trade this breakout as a runaway gap to 20000. If they manage to close it, they will likely need to fight more around 19000 until the daily ema comes closer and make the market go more sideways until the next impulse comes around. The more they can stall the market, the better for them. Bulls buying here is purely on momentum and once that fades, many want to secure the profits before the bubble pops.
Invalidation is above 19550.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral around 18720 but expecting bulls to come around and retest 19000. Could drop to 18500/18600 first though. Anything below 18500 would surprise me big time.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18720 and now we are at 19473. Absolute perfect bullish outlook and I hope you listend and took the longs.
short term: Neutral until bulls break strongly above 19500 with follow through. Small chance bears show strength and trade below 19200 again but some form of pullback/sideways movement is expected. Favoring the bulls to close the month above 19200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29 : 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19000 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
Update: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed potential two legged correction and added the big bull gap.
DAX/GER - time for break outMy stop loss is at 19315
entry short position now at 19280-19267
target at 19208
target at 19087
NOTE: MUST have a stop loss
currently, break the resistance
hopefully good break out
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows.
dax futures
comment: Big breakout, no more guessing about the direction. Now it’s a matter of how high can it get? It’s obviously a short squeeze and a stupid rally based on nothing but bear pain. Does that help you trading? No. There are several measured move targets and the next best one I have is 19600. Does not mean we have to get there but it also does not mean we can not hit 20000. Yes. 20000. Why are you still doubting this madness?
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 19000 - 19600
bull case: Bulls did it again. Most of the move happened during Globex and probably left many traders out of the market and had them chasing a second leg all day, which they got. Bulls did 4 clear legs up and that should be enough for now. Bulls kept buying the 15m 20ema all day and they also closed the EU and US session at their respective highs. You have absolutely zero reason to assume the highs are in. Look for pullbacks to get long until bulls clearly have no interest in higher prices.
Invalidation is below 19250.
bear case: Bears are in a world of pain. Every macro schmackro indicator points to a German recession and the auto industry is giving out warnings on earnings. Nothing makes sense from a “logical” standpoint. Welcome to trading. The sooner you realize this is a giant casino, the quicker you learn to let go and don’t care about this stuff. You have to trade your strategy and manage risk. Bears have nothing going for them and would need to get below 19250 before they have any case. Can this be a giant bull trap and we reverse strongly over the next 1-5 days? Everything is possible. Can you short this? Only if you want your account to be blown.
Invalidation is above 19500.
short term: Max bullishness if we stay above 19250. 19600 is my next best target before we can talk about the most insane of all targets, 20000.
medium-long term: Can not hold any bearish outlook on this breakout. Need to see the next pullback to calculate new targets.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: The buying during Globex did not stop and the 15m 20ema held all day. Not one pullback dropped below the previous one. Just a very strong bull trend day and you can buy anywhere and make money if you hold. Sounds easier than it is, I know.
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Sideways. I won’t write much about this. Markets refuse to go lower but also not much higher. Best now is to wait for the clear breakout that will likely happen this week. I have zero bias to which direction it will go. I am not a fortune teller. Both sides have reasonable arguments, despite this being one of, if not the biggest asset bubble in history.
comment: Market continues to contract. Many lines on my chart but all of them are valid until broken. Will see a bigger breakout tomorrow and or Friday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 19200
bull case: Bulls are somewhat very slightly favored since we are making higher highs and higher lows but barely. Not much changed since last Thursday. We are near the ath and market refuses to go down. Structure on the daily chart has potential for a breakout above. Wait for it to happen or scalp small.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears try but once market begins to stall they are out. Their only objective is to keep the market below the ath or near it. Not much more to say until they print something below 19000 again. Everything below 18800 would be amazing for the bears and would probably end this bull move.
Invalidation is above 19250.
short term: Neutral and waiting for the breakout. Bulls want above 19250 (roughly 19100 on xetra) and bears below 18800. Everything in between is a dead zone where market is in balance.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying 19000 or shorting near 19100. Bear trend line from 19195 was decent to short.
DAX / BASF Soars on Listing News; DAX Stays BullishBASF Jumps 5% on Agri-Chemicals Listing News; DAX Remains in Bullish Zone
Shares of German chemical giant BASF (BAS) surged 5% following a Bloomberg report indicating plans to list its Agri-Chemicals business as part of a broader corporate overhaul. While the listing is projected to occur in several years, the official announcement is expected during the company's capital markets day later this month.
DAX Technical Analysis:
The DAX index remains in a bullish momentum zone, trading above 18,640. Potential upside targets include 18,850, with an extended move toward 18,980. The overall trend is expected to maintain its bullish bias ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
However, a decisive break below 18,640 could indicate a downturn, with the price potentially dropping towards the 18,520 support level.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 18720
Resistance Levels: 18842, 18970, 19150
Support Levels: 18640, 18520, 18300
Expected Trading Range: 18640 - 18970
Trend Outlook: Bullish as long as the price remains above 18,640.
Previous idea:
DAX/GER HURRY FOR LONG Team, found DAX good entry LONG at 18883
stop loss at 18842
target at 18921
18953
Once it breaks 18905, bring stop loss to B
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Talk about pinning at a specific price. Most markets moved inside tight trading ranges between last week’s close and today’s open price. Was it bulls scaling into longs because we will rip higher (accumulation) or bears selling the highs because we crater soon (distribution)? Yes.
We have learned nothing today and you can move on now.
dax futures
comment: Dax was the anomaly today and surprised me with the strong close. Market refused to go down while most others chopped in tight ranges. The 50% pb from Friday’s selling is 19030 and we closed at 19000. Anything above 19100 would be very bullish but I favor the bears to retest at least 18900 tomorrow. That outlook is somewhat low probability until bears can break outside of the current bull channel on the 15m tf.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 19200
bull case: Market refused to go down after the EU open reversal and we had a spike and channel bull trend day. As long as the bull channel is alive, bulls are fine. Their targets above are 19100 and then 19200 obviously. Given the atrocious pmi data earlier today, this rally feels off and is likely a squeeze. Does that help with trading? No. Can go much higher than anyone expects but right now anything above 19100 would surprise me, again.
Invalidation is below 18970.
bear case: Bears tried a couple of times today but were not strong enough to even retest the open price after we went above 18980 during the EU session. We are near the 50% pb and it’s possible that they come around tomorrow and try to get down to 18800 but as of now they don’t have good arguments. Their first target is to make the market go sideways and break out of the bull channel. Then they need a strong close below 19000. On the daily chart nothing changed after today.
Invalidation is above 19100.
short term: Neutral and bearish once the bull channel is broken for at least a retest of 18900. Bullish above 19100 for 19200 or higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying 18850 was profitable on Friday and so today. Bar 29 was a perfect signal bar and 30 the entry bar. Stop 1 tick below the signal bar and that was good for 200+ points. I was too busy looking for shorts that I did not take many good long setups. Bad trading on my part.
DAX continues to trade around the all-time highs.DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 19050. Our short term bias remains positive. 50 4hour EMA is at 18663. A Morning Doji Star formation has been posted at the low.
We look to Buy at 18735 (stop at 18655)
Our profit targets will be 18935 and 18995
RR 2,5
Resistance: 18821 / 18900 / 19049
Support: 18800 / 18704 / 18600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: New ath but market rejected it with -300+ points. Bulls are still inside nested bull wedges and a big bull channel on the weekly/monthly chart. I favor bulls as long as the current bull wedge is alive but we could test down to 18500 on Monday. Bulls should not let it get below 18400. Above 19000 I expect another ath and targets above are 19100/19200.
Quote from last week:
comment: Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week.
comment : Monday left no doubt where we were heading and my outlook was perfect. No one wanted to buy above 19000 and we traded 300 points down again. We are contracting inside the bull wedge and will see a breakout over the next 3 days. That can go either way so I will go neutral into next week. Both sides have reasonable arguments. I do favor the bulls slightly but need confirmation for that and this would only be above 19300/19400 and that is 600 points away. We are inside a trading range 17700 - 19000 for over 6 months now. That is as neutral as it gets. We are making higher highs but by how much? Couple of points and that’s absolutely normal inside trading ranges. And if you think “bUt YoU sAiD wE aRe iN a BuLl wEdGe”, yes. Might blow your brain out but markets can trade inside a multiple of patterns on different time frames and you have to prioritize them by the one starting on the highest tf and working yourself to the lowest tf you want to trade.
current market cycle: big trading range
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls are slightly favored since we are inside nested bull wedges or a bigger broad bull channel, depending on how you want to draw it. Does it matter? No. We are also in a trading range inside the given key levels and that does not change how you trade the current patterns either. Bulls made a lower high last week and a higher high. As long as the lower high holds, bulls are favored for more upside. Should you buy 18720? It’s not unreasonable but Friday was quad witching and we closed at the low. I’d rather wait for bulls to come around on Monday before buying. We could touch the bull trend line around 18500/18600 before reversing but I do think we will retest at least 18900. My most insane upside target currently is 20900 but until we have a weekly close above 19400, it’s a waste of time thinking more than 2 minutes about it. Trade patterns that are valid and until they are clearly broken.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears rejected 19000 by 300 points again and the big questions is, will they get follow through selling on Monday and can they push below the bull trend line out of the bull wedge? I highly doubt that. It’s possible but unlikely. Market will probably spent more time inside the wedge before we break out by going sideways or below, once it’s contracted enough. Anything above 19100 would show great weakness by the bears and a possible giving up for 19300 or higher. On the weekly chart the highest weekly close was 18906 and bears need to keep it that way. Any weekly close above 19000 opens the door for higher prices.
Invalidation is above 19100.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18699 and now we are at 18720. High was 19044 and that outlook could not have been more perfect. Nailed the long above 18750 and the rejection above 19000. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 18720 but expecting bulls to come around and retest 19000. Could drop to 18500/18600 first though. Anything below 18500 would surprise me big time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19000 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Removed the bear gap and added the insane potential measured move to 20900. Don’t bet on that.
DAX breaking above this Resistance can target 20000DAX hit yesterday Resistance 1 (the September 03 High) but got rejected and failed to close the candle above it. Naturally, the market is reacting with weakness today and so far a red 1D candle.
As you realize, the key here is to close that candle above Resistance 1, which is what happened in the middle of the previous Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up. After testing the Resistance at the time on January 29 2024, the index turned sideways for a few days, until it finally closed above it and started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg.
All this time the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting, just as it did recently on September 06. If those conditions are met, we expect another run towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (where the April 01 Higher High was priced). Our Target is slightly below it at 20000.
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