DAX - ☕DAX - ☕
One of my most favourite patterns! Cup & Handle pattern - Inverse!
I've back tested this pattern many times and it never has failed me with the correct amount of risk etc. What states on your plan, that's the greatest importance.
Highs: 15420
Lows: 15280
A break above the highs this trade plan is no longer valid. A break below the lows I expect the continuation of bearish price action to continue and breaks below the trendline then we may go towards 200 EMA area.
Have a great week ahead,
Trade Journal
Key tip: Ignore the noise
D-DAX
DAX on a thin thread eyeing the 1D MA50DAX is rebounding after holding the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and remains overbought on daily. The similarities with the November - December fractal evident and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) untested since January 03, we expect a sharp short-term correction to it, if the 4H MA50 breaks again. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 02 market bottom so our perspective is to take advantage of such short-term pull-backs and buy for the long-term.
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✅DAX KEY LEVELS|LONG🚀
✅A broken key structure level
Which is now a support
Reinforces our bullish bias on DAX
And I believe the price is set to move higher
To retest the horizontal resistance
LONG🚀
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Will DAX find support at previous highs?GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 15265 (stop at 15185)
Trades at the highest level in 50 weeks.
The previous swing high is located at 15272.
Our short term bias remains positive.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
50 4hour EMA is at 15264.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 15465 and 15495
Resistance: 15400 / 15480 / 15572
Support: 15350 / 15300 / 15256
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX 4 HOUR TECHNICAL SAY : it can go down to 15200 area dax in last week go up and touch fibo 161% (see green fibo on chart ) now it can go down to 15200 area , we have important trendlines and fibo 61% there
advice = sellstop in 4hour chart last low and SL on last high + buy limit in 15200 area
if you have old sells, dont fear be patient 20-30 day ,,,near 15200 hedge your sells and never never close hedge buys frist (main trend is up)
ALERT = TECHNICAL SAY ON BIG BAD NEWS dax CAN GO TO 14600 AREA TOO but i advice 90% looking for buy in next 3 year
good luck
DAX with largest net daily gains in 21 days.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 15326 (stop at 15246)
Daily signals are bullish.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Largest net daily gains in 21 days.
A break of the recent high at 15572 should result in a further move higher.
We look to buy dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 15319.
Our profit targets will be 15526 and 15566
Resistance: 15520 / 15572 / 15600
Support: 15400 / 15300 / 15220
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Impulsive Rally Favors Upside And Remain SupportedDAX is showing bullish impulsive Elliott wave sequence started from September-2022 low. It placed (1) at 14584.6 high and (2) at 13791.5 low on 12/20/2022. Above there, it favors higher in wave (3) and favors higher. It already showing higher high sequence favors short term strength to continue, while dips remain above 1/30/2023 low of ((ii)). In wave (1), it placed 1 at 12669.5 high and 2 at 12000.4 low on 10/13/2022. Above there, it favored ended extended wave 3 at 14571.66 high and 4 at 14327.05 low as shallow correction. Finally, it ended 5 at 14584.6 as minor high as in wave (1) started from September-2022 low. Wave (2) was expanded flat correction ended at 13791.5 low. Above there, it favors higher in (3) of ((1)).
It placed 1 of (3) at 14160.87 high and 2 at 13871.32 low as 0.764 Fibonacci retracement against wave 1. Above there, it favored higher in extended wave 3, which ended at 15269.71 high. Below there, it placed wave 4 at 14906.27 low in 3 swing pullback. It was retraced 0.236 Fibonacci levels against wave 3 on 1/19/2023 low. Finally, it confirms higher high sequence in wave 5 in (3). It placed ((i)) of 5 at 15486.49 high and ((ii)) at 14988.98 low. Currently, it favors higher in ((iii)) of 5. It placed (i) at 15161.07 high and (ii) at 14993.59 low. Above there, it favors higher in (iii) of ((iii)), where it placed wave iv at 15403.22 low. It expects new high to be wave v of (iii) in ((iii)) before pullback in (iv) correction. Alternatively, it still can be iii of (iii) before pullback in wave iv later. In either case, it expects few more highs in wave 5 to finish (3) sequence before next pullback starts in (4) of ((1)). Above 12/20/2022 low, it expects to remain supported in 3, 7 or 11 swings in wave (4) for further upside in (5). In higher degree sequence, the move higher from 2/20/2022 low can even nest and see more upside within wave (3) before pulling back in wave (4) later.
DAX possible buysIf current 1hr stick closes bullish on DAx we could see more push up. This pair has been ranging all week, but I have caught a few buys in between..Price has not been able to break support, so we are waiting for a proper confirmation breakout... Price has also made a double bottom on the 200ema support, and currently painting a possible retest entry.
DAX: Sell signal short term but bullish reversal if HH break.DAX turned overbought on the 1D time frame (RSI = 72.776, MACD = 187.300, ADX = 43.679) as investor euphoria spread across the stock markets on a dovish Powell, and the current 4H candle broke above the short term Channel Up. If it closes back inside the Channel Up, we will regard this a sell signal aiming at a -2.30% decline (TP = 15,100).
On the contrary, if DAX breaks above the long-term HH trend line first, we will buy and aim at the All Time High (TP = 16,300) as a repeat of the January 2nd - 18th +10.30% rally will be more probable.
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DAX This Resistance makes all the differenceThe German stock index DAX broke today (and so far stays ahead of the Fed) above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). On our last analysis two weeks ago, we pointed out that a Channel Up similar to November's would form and its break-out will deliver the next move:
As you see, the price traded exactly within that short-term Channel Up and delivered excellent scalping opportunities to us. Right now it is still intact and we are still scalping, only willing to commit to the direction on the next break-out.
A break below it should be enough to target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as it happened on December 28 and then rebound for another medium-term bullish leg. If the Double Top Resistance breaks first, we will go long regardless, targeting the top of February's Resistance Zone (15730). Further break will extend our selling to the 16300 All Time High.
On the downside, if the price closes below the 4H MA200/ 1D MA50, we will buy again at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up (blue) near the 13900 Support (December 16 Low).
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DE40 ShortLooking to sell Dax at the 15650 level. Multiple confluences in one area. Including the upper lim of the channel. Let me know if you spotted this one too.
DAX testing lower Bouhmidi-Band $DAX tested almost again the lower #BouhmidiBands - We see a slight pullback back into the bandwidth. Watch out for a possible 2nd test. Remember yesterdays chartbook reversal....
DAX Full Analysis From Monthly To 4H TF, Next Move Expectations This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
DAX Reversal at lower Bouhmidi-Band After a negative GDP for DE in Q4 (expected was a zero number), worries are coming up again. $DAX has tested like expected the lower Bouhmidi-Band and reversed back into the bandwidth
DAX Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 DAX Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from VDAX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 18.97%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 2.63% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 15466
BOT: 14673
The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
79% with the last 20 years of data
89% with data since 2022
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
73% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -13% Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: +80% Bullish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
1.87% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
2.37% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
DAX's bullish momentum continues to stall.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 15163 (stop at 15253)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Trend line resistance is located at 15170.
Bespoke resistance is located at 15150.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Our profit targets will be 14943 and 14903
Resistance: 15150 / 15221 / 15272
Support: 15066 / 15000 / 14950
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
THE EASIEST ARBITRAGE EVER IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF OUR EYES?
LONG US, SHORT EU
Hello, these two charts seem to show an identical background situation for the two economies (US and German), however, the economy in US and EU is very different (among other explanations, TFP - total factor productivity is, and always has been positive in the US, while it is negative and, most importantly, decreasing since many years in Europe; US has never lowered rates below 0, while Europe did, breaking the Marxist M-G-M model, which means Money-Goods-Money1 cycle, and transforming it into a mere M to M1 model, money to money1, where M1 >M, skipping the "Goods" part of the cycle, basically creating a system where Money that creates other money out of thin air).
The markets (especially the European ones) are discounting the fact that there will be no recession based on last data, and that we will have a soft landing after all in US. I believe this will not be the case but it is not important now. The important thing is that, European investors are believing that the same will happen in EU, where, however, the increase of interest rates is far from being done, and inflation has not peaked yet!
Surprisingly, European investors are continuing to consider the two economies as identical, simply because in the last 40 years they moved together. However, they forget the 10-15 years of QE and the fact that the world after it will not simply continue to be the same as before, as we simply can erase these 15 years of history and put in conjunction the two extremities. They are pricing the two markets as it they were at the beginning of capitalism, while we are probably at the end of it, or better at a new phase of it. A phase in which US adapted to the MDM model by increasing the productive cycle (they have companies like Tesla, Amazon, Google) while in Europe we persevered in the aberration of the M-> M1.
LONG US (Dow jones), SHORT EU (Dax)
IThis is why, n my opinion, what we have in front of us is a win-win situation.
If the markets will continue, in my opinion wrongly, to consider these two markets almost perfectly correlated, while they are going up even if at least one of the two will have a recession ahead, we will be covered in any case.
case 1 - recession in USA, recession in EU
the recession will hit stronger in Europe-> The position will lose on long US less than what it would gain from the short on EU (DAX)
case 2 - no recession in USA, recession in EU
double gain (from the on long US and from the short on EU)
case 3 - no recession in USA, no recession in EU
US economy will perform better then EU : the long position on US will gain more than what it would LOSE from the short on EU
It is worth noting that both indices are surprisingly at 8% from their respective peaks of 2021 but the strength of the trend (red line on the second indicator - DMI) is very low.
Of course, the strategy will need to be adjusted with the sizes so that every side has the same notional value in USD - What do you think?
dax 1 hour ; all pro waiting for dax crash to 14700we have 2 open gap on CASH PHISICAL DAX INDEX must fill soon or late
if you have old sell you must close all near 14700 area and pick buy and hold 1 month to high
FOR NOW = put sellstop in low and pick buy above green arrow ,,,dont close buy soon,,try hold them to 15800
ALERT= AS I SAY BEFORE : WEEKLY CHART TECHNICAL SHOW 19000 AS DAX TARGET ,,,,IT CAN FLY UP ,,,,BE CAREFUL FROM SELL
alert= trade dax and index are very complex need minimum 5 year practice on demo account ,,,if you dont have it,dont trade it in real account
Goodluck
Good Sell opportunity on GER30There was a shift in the Market Structure, Momentum was pretty bearish last week and after that retracement I will definitely look for confirmations on LTF specially that Price took liquidity above the last swing high with that absorption.
Please keep in mind that Macro-Trend still bullish so trade should be well managed.
DAX vx SP500: Is DAX highly over valued?By comparing the charts of US indexes vs European indexes we usuallly find pretty much the same patterns.
However there is something that really caught my attention, compare the monthly chart of sp500 vs Dax:
DAX is only 6,54% from all time highs of 2022
SP500 is 15,40% from its all time highs of 2022.
NASDAQ is 28,45% from it's all time highs of 2022
This difference is obviously linked to the different policies of central banks, however I wonder if such a huge difference is justified.
German economy has been highly struck by energy prices and German inflation is still 8,5% vs 6,5% in the US.
SHORT DAX - 14500 NEXTShorting $DAX from 15,000 technically looks a good price, target is 14500.
Scholz will announce tanks delivery to Ukraine today, Russia's response will certainly hit Germany's energy sector for punishment.
