D-DAX
Key DXY levels to watch for rebound Dollar is on support right now confluences being 61fib and major trend line and covid flight to safety high of 2020 this makes the level between 103-102.5 very interesting for a rebound.
if it does not bounce here id expect. small bounce at next technical level and then a major bounce at 100.
imo everything is lining ups dollar low, gold high stocks and indices are high look at DAX AND FTSE100 with SPX coming into key resistances. I expect reversal soon narrative of a bull run doesn't make sense at this point in time.
DAX Looking to End 5 Waves Elliott Wave ImpulseCycle from 9.29.2022 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the 45 minutes chart below, we can see wave 4 ended at 13795.47. Wave 5 rally is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another 5 waves impulse. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 14160.87 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 13871.32. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave (a) ended at 13874.50, wave (b) ended at 14063.14, and wave (c) ended at 13871.32
Wave ((iii)) higher is now in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 14065.59 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 13922.55. Wave (iii) higher ended at 14501.60 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 14388.98. Final leg higher wave (v) should end soon which should complete wave ((iii)). Afterwards, the Index should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 12.29.2022 low before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 13795.47 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
DAX reached 40-week high.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 14505 (stop at 14419)
Our short term bias remains positive.
We look to buy dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 14490.
Traded to the highest level in 40 weeks.
Our profit targets will be 14705 and 14745
Resistance: 14718 / 14750 / 14800
Support: 14600 / 14500 / 14400
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Is the rally over ? Could be... After the extended bear market rally that we just had, i believe we are due for one more leg down based of recent economic datas & seasonality
Stop loss is very tight as I do not want to be caught on a leg up
I am expecting a lower low, but will place the take profit just above the recent lows, in case they are not taken
Cheers
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.85%
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.37% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.7% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 15095
BOT: 14218
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
73% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high(already done)
26.5% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Weekly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Monthly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
🇩🇪 DE40 Next Rising Wave 🇩🇪🇩🇪 DE40 Next Rising Wave.
🇩🇪 Nearest strong support zone: level 0.618 fibo of the entire downward wave, around 14593.
🇩🇪 Nearest strong resistance zone: level 0.786 fibo of the entire downward wave, around 15348.
🇩🇪 Technical environment:
- Moving averages: Uptrend
- MACD: Uptrend
- RSI: Uptrend
🇩🇪 Price action: the DAX in December scored a correction of about 7% after which it steadily held the area around 14000. In the last week, a breakout after the accumulation began and we are currently at the height of the recent local peaks, looking at the size of the candles and the breakout formation, the way to the area around the recent resistance zones looks open.
🇩🇪 The scenario I'm playing out is a continuation of growth to the vicinity of the nearest strong resistance zone. I don't exclude the possibility of changing the scenario if the market situation changes abruptly. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Selling DAX into previous highs.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 14582 (stop at 14677)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Bespoke resistance is located at 14600.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
Our profit targets will be 14357 and 14317
Resistance: 14510 / 14560 / 14600
Support: 14440 / 14400 / 14340
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX held the 1D MA50 going for the 9-month Resistance.DAX is on a very strong rebound after holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, having closed all 1D candles above it since December 20. As mentioned on previous analyses, the target is the 14680 - 14950 Resistance Zone. We are looking to take profits on the first sign of rejection within that zone.
Beyond that, we will buy either after a 14950 bullish break-out, i.e. a 1D candle closing above 14950 and target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up within 15300- 15400. That is located directly below the February Resistance Zone.
As long as the 1D MA50 holds, (i.e. candle closing above it), buy on the short-term and target 14680. A closing below the 1D MA50 should take DAX to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), located at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. Keep an eye also on the 1D RSI Buy Zone for medium-term buys.
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DAX: Bullish after breaking the 4H MA200DAX easily broke above the 4H MA200 (14,248.20) yesterday, which as I've mentioned in the past 2 weeks is the most crucial level on the medium-term, and the trend shifted back to bullish again long-term. This is evident also on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 58.733, MACD = 21.600, ADX = 18.725), whose RSI turned bullish for the first time since December 14th. This is all a result of holding the 1D MA50 (14,052.30) as a Support and the Golden Cross 4 weeks ago.
As mentioned previously, the 4H MA200 break would be a buy break-out for me and now I am targeting 14,700, which is just below the June 6th High of 14,710. Technically the 4H MA50 (14,017.50) should now act as a Support/ buy entry. My attention fundamentally is on the FOMC Meeting Minutes today and more importantly the Non-farm Payrolls on Friday. All prices mentioned on my analysis are on DAX futures current contract in front.
DE40 ....DE40 Buy/Sell... This is not signal... Dont risk more than 3% of your account on any trade...
Dax40 - Short setting on goingShort until support area 12600
We are in a bearish trend and after the dic. rally is aspected a deep pull back (and a new long wave) .. or short continuation for wave3 major.
DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis
Currently the volatility for DAX is at 6.28%, up from 6.13% last month.
From the volatility current percentile we are located on 57th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement:
Bullish : 5.686%
Bearish : 5.885%
With this in mind we have currently 84.1% that the market is going to stay within the next channel
TOP Limit: 14850
BOT Limit: 13135
If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a :
34.43% to hit the previous monthly high
57.86% to hit the previous monthly low
Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently
Weekly Timeframe : 40% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
Monthly Timeframe : 66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
Buying DAX at current support.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 13867 (stop at 13787)
Levels below 13860 continue to attract buyers.
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
A lower correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 14066 and 14096
Resistance: 14083 / 14160 / 14200
Support: 14000 / 13960 / 13860
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
⇄ Sideways...30th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities bounced nicely. S&P500 recovered above the support level. European indices bounced off the 50-day moving average.
➤ Sideways would be the appropriate term to sum up the price action for 2/3 of the year. If we look backwards to May, the S&P500 has not made any progress up or down. Price has oscillated around current levels by +/- 10%.
➤ It feels like we are in a holding pattern. The longer this pattern lasts, the larger the resulting directional move. We have no influence on that direction nor the timing. Only the Market can decide on the when and where.
➤ The Bulls could argue that despite all the negativity, the equity price has held up well. The Bears would argue that only one shoe has dropped, the other shoe is about to. Either way, next year will be intriguing.
➤ I currently hold a +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Intrigue is good, but making money is better. Let's do it together next year!
Elliott Wave Projects Further Downside in DAXShort term, Elliott wave view in DAX suggests cycle from 9.28.2022 low has ended with wave (1) at 14677.69 as an impulse. The Index is currently correcting cycle from 9.28.2022 low within wave (2). Internal subdivision of wave (2) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave (i) ended at 14375.95 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 14470.74. Index then extends lower in wave (iii) towards 13815.24, and rally in wave (iv) ended at 14001.37. Final leg lower wave (v) ended at 13791.52 which completed wave ((i)).
Wave ((ii)) rally has ended at 14160.87 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 13931.29 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 13848.07. Wave (c) higher ended at 14160.87 which completed wave ((ii)). Index has turned lower in wave ((iii)), but it still needs to break below wave ((i)) at 13791.52 to rule out any double correction. Near term, as far as pivot at 14677.69 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower in wave ((iii)) = 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)) at 12744 – 13285.