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2024-08-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - My bearish bias got obliterated today. While dax is still 100 points below the daily 20ema, sp500 and nasdaq closed above theirs. Overall much stronger buying than expected and what bears should have allowed imo. Maybe it was front running CPI or a solid short squeeze, it does not matter. All patterns allow for some over-/undershoot so bears could technically still sell off again and we have seen the highs for this pullback but that’s as low probability as it gets. More likely for sp500 is a retest of 5000, if bulls want it bad tomorrow and CPI probably has to be cold as well. Today’s US close was bullish af and we can’t expect anything but more bear pain tomorrow. Anything below 5400 would be a huge surprise again. dax futures comment: Not much new stuff to tell you. The wedge bear flag is alive but market is still below the daily ema. Bulls want 18000 and bears have to keep the gap to 18200 open or this bear trend loses much of it’s strength. Play the bear flag as seen in my weekly post, until clearly broken. Bears need a huge surprise tomorrow. Can’t be anything but bullish after today’s price action. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 18000 bull case: Bulls closed the us session at the highs and above 17900, which was previous resistance. They want the strong momentum going for 18000 tomorrow. For that they should keep it above 17850 or bears see it as a failed breakout and want to trade down to 17740 again. Bulls are in control. Invalidation is below 17850. bear case: Bears see the EU open and close which were 10 points apart. They need to stall this during the Globex session and generate huge selling pressure to keep this below 17900 again. If they fail, 18000 is almost a given. Most likely is that we see sideways movement at the highs before the US cpi release and depending on that, big up or big down but I have no idea how market will interpret the number to either side, so I will be flat as always and wait for a breakout and follow through. Invalidation is above 17950. short term: Neutral until a decent breakout out of the wedge bear flag. Bear case was hit hard today. If we stay at the highs and cpi is low, most likely much much more upside again. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940 Update: -136 on the short. Flat again. trade of the day: Decent selling to a new weekly low from the open and selling bar 31 was reasonable. Stop had to be new high of the day. Could you have bought bar 41,42 or 43? I don’t think so. Huge selling and the first 3 bull bars forming a low 1. Buying that is usually low probability. Getting out of shorts above bar 42 was good though. Buying 47 was good because the low 2 did not trigger and bar 47 was way to strong for bear comfort. Market then never had a 15m close below the 15m ema again.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All went mostly sideways and today had many scalp opportunities in both directions since support and resistance were visible early and respected through the session. If you are not comfortable with those trading days, practice on demo account. These days are common and they can be your bread & butter in between big swings. dax futures comment: Bull wedge broken through sideways movement. Market is in total balance around 17780 and we can only go absolutely neutral into tomorrow. Bulls need a strong breakout above 17850 and then 17900, if they want 18000 again and I can’t see this happening without a really low ppi print. Same argument for the bears, if needs to be hot for this to drop below 17700. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 17900 bull case: Only thing bulls had going for them today is that they prevented the market going below 17700 but nothing else. They broke outside the wedge bear flag and are risking a breakdown below tomorrow. Their last hope is a soft ppi print tomorrow and maybe the lower bear flag trend line holding (around 17700 right now). Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears printed two consecutive bear doji’s on the daily chart and achieved their main goal today by keeping the market below 18000. Their big bear case would be seriously hurt if bulls can get above the big round number again. Bears now want the wedge bear flag to break down and trade back to 17300 and below. Not more magic to it. You should not make stuff up after the market went mostly sideways. If you want more analysis of this, please read my weekly update. Invalidation is above 18020. short term: Neutral until a decent breakout below the wedge bear flag but then full bear mode again. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940 trade of the day: Short bar 9 while it formed. Was better visible on the 15m tf. Big resistance on round number 17900 and it had a decent signal bar before. Question is, could you have held through the pullback from bar 10 to 12? Today was a ranging day and scalping both directions on clear support was much easier to catch.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Bears will get a second leg down but it can take more time to go sideways. Whole week was basically going nowhere and as neutral as can be so you can’t go into next week with a huge bias. Both sides have valid arguments to reach prices above and below Friday’s close. Quote from last week: comment: Thursday and Friday printed two of the strongest consecutive bear bars for months and market stopped around the 200d ema. This selling is different than before and this will be the breakout to new lows, most likely down to the monthly 20ema around 17000-17400. My measured move target from 3 months ago was 17000. My best guess is that we get there over the next 2-8 weeks. Short term I expect a bounce but it’s absolutely possible that we print another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday to get to the monthly 20ema and my measured move target of 17000. comment: Above pretty much described exactly what happened last week and for now all my bearish targets are met. I still expect another test of the lows. These tests can be higher,lower or pretty much the same. You never ever know in advance and you have to trade it as it comes. After that retest we will likely see another pullback to the 20ema or previous pullback highs (right now 17862) and more sideways movement inside the current range. It’s always an obvious pattern that we get another strong leg in the trend direction, when the daily 20ema is close enough or we hit it 1-3 times. Going into next week I am absolutely neutral and I think 17700-17900 is a dead zone for trading. Want to see strong momentum in either direction for me to scalp. current market cycle: Clear bear trend with the break below the previous low on Monday. Market is in W2 and we get a W3 (second leg down) over the next 1-2 weeks. It is still a minor bear trend inside the big bull trend since 2023-10 until the bull trend line around 16850 is broken. key levels: 17000 - 18200 bull case: Climactic selling lead to an expected pullback and sideways movement. Are the bulls showing strength here? All bars since Monday are heavily overlapping and bulls barely made higher highs. The only argument they have going for them is that they bought dips and closed green at the highs of the bars. They are in damage control and need to close the huge bear gap up to 18200. The higher they can get, the better and weaker the bear trend becomes. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears crashed it down to 17110 and took profits there. They are currently seeing the wedge bear flag as a minor pullback inside the near bear trend. Their target is a measured move down to around 15600 but that’s far away and we have the big bull trend line from 20231-10 a bit below 17000. They want to start testing it because its also where the monthly 20 ema is and the last time we touched it was 2023-11. Two big obvious magnets below and enough reason for a second leg down. My preferred path forward is 1-2 bear bars on the daily chart next week, another pullback to the daily ema around 18000 before another leg down to the big bull trend line below 17000. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Will see a pullback but I do think it will be a very shallow one and it could stay below 18300. → Last Sunday we traded 17731 and now we are at 17776. High was 17862, so still 400 points below my target. I also wrote that we could crash down on Monday/Tuesday to 17000, which we did. Very good outlook. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback has two sided trading and I think a test below 17500 comes before 18000 but after a low, we should see another try from the bulls to print 18000 again or touch the daily 20ema. At which I will load up on shorts again, if we see bear strength. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Waiting for the wedge bear flag to break down and load up on shorts for a second leg down/W3 chart update: Added the wedge bear flag and adjusted the potential current channel we are in. Once the bear flag breaks down, we can draw a new channel but we won’t know for sure which one gets respected by the market until it get’s tested again. Also added the current bear gap to 18200.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls kept the wedge alive which surprised me. Consecutive bull bars on the daily chart now but only a slightly higher high. Odds favor a reversal below 17800 for at least 17600. I think there is a decent chance we puke during the Globex session again. Above 17820 I am probably wrong and the bull breakout could work. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls kept the market above 17450 and got a strong close today. For a bull breakout above this wedge bear flag, they need consecutive bull bars above 17800. If they let the market fall below 17700 again, odds favor the bears for at least 17600 and also after 3 pushes up, bears could get a breakout below. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears were not strong enough to push below 17450 and then stepped aside once bulls printed consecutive 1h bull bars above the 1h 20ema. They need to reverse under 17800 or many bears will give up until at least 18000 and if the momentum is strong enough tomorrow, this could become a very strong bull trend day. The daily 20ema is at 18150 and the breakout price from the June low is 18148. If bears do not prevent the bulls under 18000, we most likely will hit 18150. Odds still favor the bears to keep the wedge bear flag alive and break below instead of above. Invalidation is above 18020. short term: Full bear mode but have to exit shorts above 18020ish and see how high the pullback can go before new shorts. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: None. If bears show strength again tomorrow, want to get a short around 17900-18000 for tp 17000. trade of the day: I thought long and hard about why I did not long bar 50 or 52 and my answer is always the same, it was a bad buy, high in the trading range and at previous highs after the market had much two sided trading and odds favored the bears to go lower. Not taking that buy was absolutely fine. If you took it, good for you and I hope you made a lot of money.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 350 points up and then 260 points down. Up move was stronger than I thought and I did not trade it but I nailed the down move. The bull wedge is broken and bulls might retest the breakout at 17600 but that could be the high for tomorrow. I still expect the lows to be retested and today printed another nasty reversal bar on the daily chart. I still expect the lows to hold (it can be a lower low but not close below 17000) but only if this JPN carry blowup did not create an event we are already in. If something broke, next logical support is 16500 but the big bull trend line at around 16800 was last touched in 2023-10 and will most likely not break on the next touch. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls tried 4 times to stay above 17600 and the bull wedge broke in the US session today. If bulls fail to keep the market above 17370, the lows will come fast because many bulls will give up below today’s low. Best bulls can hope for is to stay above that price and go sideways. Their first target is a close above the 1h 20ema which is currently around 17580 and the breakout below the bull wedge. If they keep the market neutral long enough tomorrow, we could try 17600 or higher again but as of now that is very low probability. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Bears sold off into the US close again and for tomorrow I do not expect another strong up move in the Globex or early EU session. Too many bulls got trapped again and they will probably wait for a retest of 17100 to look for longs again. Bears target is obvious and since they printed 4 strong consecutive 1h bear bars, they are in control of the market again. Invalidation is above 17650. short term: Full bear mode. Bear flag is broken and retest of the lows probably next medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: None but will probably look for longs around 17100 trade of the day: Long bar 2 since it was a retest of y close and stay above the bull wedge trend line. Could have closed longs at prior weekly high around 17700 or below bar 56. Next best trade was short bar 62 or bar 66. Decent chance we test the lower wedge trend line again after 3 pushes up.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
DAX to see a powerful correction to the upside?GER40 - 24h expiry Bullish divergence is expected to support prices. The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment. We are trading at oversold extremes. A higher correction is expected. The bias is to break to the upside. A break of the recent high at 17565 should result in a further move higher. We look to Buy a break of 17585 (stop at 17425) Our profit targets will be 17985 and 18185 Resistance: 17565 / 17700 / 17900 Support: 17400 / 17250 / 17021 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
07.08.2024 - GBE Marktcheck - DAX, S&P 500, Nvidia, Silber Herzlich Willkommen zu einem neuen GBE Marktcheck mit dem langjährigen Trading- und Charttechnik Experten John Gossen. In diesem Video werden folgende Basiswerte anhand der aktuellen charttechnischen Situation besprochen und unter anderem potenzielle Trading-Strategien aufgezeigt: - DAX Erholung Richtung 17.700 Punkte? - S&P 500 deutlich überverkauft! - Nvidia zieht an! - Silber mit Long Chance? Wir wünschen Ihnen einen erfolgreichen Handelstag! Disclaimer: CFDs sind komplexe Instrumente und bergen ein hohes Risiko, Gelder schnell durch Hebelwirkung zu verlieren. 78.68% der Privatanleger-Konten verlieren Gelder, wenn Sie CFDs mit diesem Anbieter handeln. Sie sollten überlegen, ob Sie verstehen, wie CFDs funktionieren und ob Sie es sich leisten können, das Risiko einzugehen, Ihr Geld zu verlieren.
XETR:DAX
by GBEbrokers
2024-08-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral between 17300 and 17650. Market is trying to find a bottom in a big trading range. As long as market stays below 17900, it’s max bearish. I expect a slow grind to retest the lows over the next 1-2 days and those lows will most likely hold so we can move much more sideways. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls got their pullback but only printed an inside bar on the daily chart, which is weak. Their only goal is to get above 17900 and break above the July low and close as much of the gap to 18150 as possible. First target is 17700 and then the Globex high from Monday at 17732. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Bears kept the bounce below the 4h 20ema and below the Globex high from Monday. They want this bear flag to be shallow and mostly sideways before another strong leg down. A measured move down would bring us to 15600 but for that to happen in 2024, we would ne an event or nothing but annihilation of earnings next quarter. My head & shoulders target from 3 or 4 weeks ago was missed by less than 100 points on Monday, I consider this to be close enough. Invalidation is above 17900. short term: full bear mode. Target was 17844 and we got 17110. Play the bear flag for now but the lows will be retested. More sideways movement over the next days or weeks. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: Closed all shorts for 800+ points. Currently not interested in anything but intraday scalps. trade of the day: Shorting the Globex high double top 17650 after the second big bear bar. That was good for 170 points which was a bit lower than the gap to y close.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
Faith in the wave principleThis serves as a reminder to adhere to the wave principle discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliott. I'm sharing this photo as it's the only documentation of the diagnosis before the development of this analytical idea. It's essential to pay attention to signs that confirm an idea when sharing it with friends, such as the invalidation of the analysis, the passing of the price of the aggressive and conservative idea, as well as the formation of each correction and action pattern. This is a detail I want to emphasize because I don't want anyone to experience the psychological suffering of losing capital. I wish everyone success and recovery in the field of analysis and trading. I am nobody, which is why I chose the nickname Mr. Nobody.
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by mehdi47abbasi79
The idea of extending the DAX bull marketGreetings The recent discussion regarding the Dax Market presented a single potential scenario, exploring a specific structural formation. It is important to note that my analysis stems from a background in technical analysis, and my initial viewpoint was based on the observed structure. However, it is crucial to emphasize that I do not lay claim to expertise in market analysis, though I do hold a strong belief in the wave principle, substantiated by my observations and experiences. Presently, I present a more assertive notion. My assessment indicates the emergence of a 4th wave pattern resembling a double zigzag pattern. The confirmation for trading lies in the conservative breach of the wave X price of this pattern. I recommend considering the price action in conjunction with the formation of the impulse pattern, as well as the development of any corrective pattern. This strategy aligns with a bullish market trend. Wishing you success in your endeavors.
OANDA:DE30EUR
by mehdi47abbasi79
2
German DAX - More Downside Potential From Here?Germany's DAX index has broken down definitively from its 4-month symmetrical triangle pattern, hinting at a potential "measured move" decline toward the mid-16,000s next. So far, the index has dropped sharply over the last 3 days to hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally off the November low near 17,250. A near-term bounce off this support level wouldn't be surprising, but as it stands, the index may have more near-term potential for downside from here. -MW
FOREXCOM:GER40
by FOREXcom
2024-08-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Yesterday I was neutral until one side clearly gains control again and boi did the bears deliver today. 600 point drop from Wednesday high and a close below 18200. This is the biggest bear bar for many months and will be part of W1/leg1 of the new bear trend. We will most likely make new lows below 17800 next week. We have a nice looking bear channel that leads to the July low, from where we can expect the W2/two legged correction to form a broader channel which we can grind down to at least 17000 over the next weeks. If bulls somehow manage to break above 18400 again, I am wrong and we continue inside the trading range which we have been in for 5 months now. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) / probably the new bear trend has started today. key levels: 17800 - 18400 bull case: Yesterday I wrote that bulls could not get a single close above 18600 and market can test one direction/price only so much before it tries the opposite. Bulls gave up today and now we test the lows. The best bulls can hope for is to keep it above 17800 and continue inside the trading range. Given that we just had many earnings releases and the negative GDP print, I absolutely favor the bears. Invalidation is below 17800. bear case: Bears closed below the recent 33 bars and demonstrated strength. This selling will most likely get another leg down but now the primary goal for the bears is to keep any pullback shallow and preferably below 18300 to create two big bear gaps. Bear gap #2 will get smaller tomorrow but it should stay open, otherwise bears might fumble it again. Invalidation is above 18300. short term: full bear mode for 17844 or lower. There I expect a pullback to form a broader channel we will grind down over the next months. Buckle up. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Had shorts from 18700 and added 18900. Took most off today and leaving a runner for 17844. trade of the day: Short since bar 7, no ifs or buts. Bar closed below the previous 35 bars and at it’s low. Perfect signal and entry bar.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: July is behind us, so let’s take a look at the daily chart since the weekly and monthly do not help in any way, analysing this. For dax it’s easy today because we absolutely have no Idea when it wants to go where, since my calculated 50% of this range is 18520 and market closed July at 18608. Absolutely neutral. We know for sure that the recent bull trend is over and we are in a trading range. We are in the middle of the triangle on the daily chart and you have to play the range until it’s clearly broken. Does the weekly or monthly chart tell us anything different? Absolutely not. The daily 20ema is completely flat and we just have to wait for one side to gain control and make new highs or new lows. Bullish above 18800 and bearish below 18100. Going into August I do expect more volatility and even if Bulls get another ath, odds are great that we will make new lows below 17800 over the next 2 months. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls made lower highs this week but could not get one close above 18600. They are weak as the bears and that is why we are mostly moving sideways. Bulls tried enough to get above 18700 by now and I do think they will give up tomorrow/Friday and we test 18300 or lower again. They would need a strong move above 18800 for higher prices. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Bears are weak too but at least they mostly keep it below 18600. They need to start producing lower lows again and test back to 18300. I do think odds favor the bears over the next weeks for lower lows but as of now, market is in absolute balance. First target for the bears tomorrow is a 1h close below 18500. Invalidation is above 18700. short term: neutral. Bullish above 18700 and bearish below 18500. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
DAX H1 | Falling to pullback supportDAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 18,463.01 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 18,360.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 18,633.73 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
2
2024-07-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Down, up, down up. Today was up where open was almost the exact low of the day. Market stalled around 18550 and it’s critical for the bears that it stays a lower high below 18650. Bears need to break the bull trend line for lower prices. Shorting above 18550 and buying 18500 was king today. Can not be anything but neutral going into tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls made around 100 points from eu open to close. Looks more like a leg in a trading range than strong buying. Bulls want a higher high above 18657 but I highly doubt that they get it. Market is in breakout mode. Watch the triangle on the daily chart. There are 2 potential bear trend lines above which can act as magnets. 18600 and 18660ish. I do think that if bulls can break above 18660 again, they can test the bear trend line from the ath around 18800. Invalidation is below 18480. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 18500 but bulls poked enough that they stepped aside and shorted above 18550 again. Bears need to keep this a lower high or risk a breakout out of this triangle. Their first target is a break below the bull trend line below 18480. Invalidation is above 18560. short term: neutral. Bullish above 18600 and bearish below 18480. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged trade of the day: Long since EU open or shorting above 18550 and buying 18500. Clear support and resistance today but tbh, not a fun day to trade this.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
Conservative idea for SamGreetings, Dear friends, I hope you are well and have a week full of successful and profitable transactions. My analytical view: What is more likely is that the structure and micro-degree of the waves in the first and third waves indicate that there is one wave degree left to complete the impulse pattern. As for the fourth wave pattern that has happened so far, it is a double zigzag pattern, and it is also a diagonal pattern, which is also an extended zigzag correction. It is expected that after crossing the price of wave B, the mentioned zigzag pattern will witness price action. Breaking out of the correction channel shows a stronger confirmation of the completion of the fifth wave. However, I also consider the possibility that the fifth wave has completed to a greater degree than the third wave and is currently completing a fourth wave to a greater degree. Another zigzag pattern may occur, and we will see a sideways correction pattern in the future. Short-term bearishness for the multiple zigzag pattern is also expected; however, the bullish market will continue to complete an impulse pattern on a larger daily basis. Note: I am an analyst in the world of principle wave, who has entered the fourth year of my work experience, and I am developing an analytical idea. In financial markets, there is no 100% certainty due to the complexity of different patterns that can change. However, I do my best to back up every analysis I share with you guys with everything I've learned so far. A brief explanation of the three fundamental laws of the wave principle: 1. The second wave should never go beyond the beginning of the first wave. 2. The third wave should never be the shortest wave between waves 1, 3, and 5. 3. The fourth wave must never enter the territory of the first wave. Ralph Nelson Elliott was the founder of this theory, and when asked about his view of the market, he always referred to five waves in the direction of a larger trend and three waves against the direction it was taking. After completing an eight-wave cycle, a larger cycle is formed in the future, simply. May his memory be cherished, and may his soul rest in the shelter of God Almighty and the eternal world. I am attaching the analysis of this market that I shared with you earlier to this current analysis. The last word of my analysis text is repetitive, except to explain the current analysis because I also trade in the financial markets and I am active in my social networks, and I work hard to improve my skills in analysis and trading to reach my goal. I apologize for repeating the text. I welcome suggestions and criticisms, and I will respond, but a logical reason is important to me. Thank you for taking the time to review my analysis. First of all, I wish good health and success to all my dear friends and colleagues. Mr. Nobody
TVC:DEU40Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
2
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Decent selling by the bears today. I expect follow through tomorrow but mostly sideways markets going into US close tomorrow. Earnings is a gamble imo and I don’t do that. I’m playing the bear channel and will be flat once market stalls. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls also bought new lows here and scalped. They bounced at the 50% pb from last week and now they want to go mostly sideways to break out of the bear channel. I don’t think they want to die on that hill. They had a decent pullback last week and know that bears want at least 18300 again. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears did ok today but closed barely below Friday’s close. They want to continue the channel down to 18300 but I don’t think many traders want to have big positions going into tomorrow’s US close given the earnings releases. Play the channel until it breaks. Invalidation is above 18560. short term: Bearish as long as the bear channel holds. 1. Target below is 18300 medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged trade of the day: Trading range from Globex until US opened. Best trades were shorts from EU open bar 28 for gap close and can exit bar 37. Next best short was bar 52, follow through selling after a two legged pullback right below the 15m 20ema.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls and bears alike knew the recent high at 18900 was a bad buy and they tried to save their bull case on Tuesday but once Wednesday came around and 18700ish was resistance the third time, they gave and we only produced lower highs since. Best bulls can hope for now is to keep it above 18000 and bounce at the weekly 20ema which is exactly right under Friday’s close and that the bull trend line from April will hold. Market expects a pullback and bulls want it to go above 18600, which increases the odds of this being a continuation of the triangle, rather than a new bear trend. comment: Bulls got to 18774, which was way too high for it being a pullback in a bear trend. Market is in a descending triangle where the support is 18200ish. Since we are in the middle of it, worst place to trade. Both sides have reasonable arguments for Monday but this pattern will break next week to one side or the other. Given the many upcoming earnings, I won’t predict them, nor gamble on a trade before market is showing the direction. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 5 month trading range. —update: 5 months now instead of 4. Will break soon. key levels: small range 18000 / 18900 bull case: Bulls had a two legged pullback which got higher than the bears would have liked, which increased the odds of a continuation of the trading range. No side is strong enough to keep the market above or below the daily 20ema, so we are neutral af. You don’t need to analyse it further. Save your mental capacity on other markets and wait for a clear breakout. Invalidation is below 18147. bear case: Bears lost control on Tuesday where they allowed the market to go 200 points above the daily 20ema. They got a strong reversal from above 18700 down to 18200 but there they took profits again and the range continues. 18500 is a bad spot for everyone. Maybe strong bears will respect the minor trend line we formed and trade back down from here to retest the lows but that’s a weak argument at best. The other bear trend line around 18400 is a more reasonable expectation. If we get there, I expect bears to show strength again, just as bulls will probably buy 18200 again. Below 18200 comes 18000 and 17840 in play. Invalidation is above 18785. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Will try to catch the bounces as good as one can but the big money will be made to the downside over the next months. Short term we will see a bounce that should stay below 18500/18600 and from there I expect another big leg down to 17800. → Last Sunday we traded 18298 and now we are at 18535. High of the week was 18774 and the low was 18200. Said we get a bounce to 18500/18600 and the high was 18774. Almost perfect outlook since the downside was not as deep but we will get there in the next days/weeks. short term: Neutral. Can see this going both ways and I don’t gamble. No bigger interest in buying this but rather waiting for weakness above 18600 to short again. medium-long term: Time to update this section. I called for 17000 for couple of months now and I said, any short around or above 19000 is amazing. The highs held and now we will see how low we can get in 2024. 17100 is still my first bigger target and should be reached in 2024. At this point it does not make sense to call lower targets. —unchanged since 2024-07 current swing trade: Took some profits on my shorts at 18300 and would add above 18600 again. Chart update: Added minor bear trend lines and adjusted the lower bull trend line but I don’t think market is respecting it that much. Support around 18200 and a descending triangle is more likely.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big down, big up, big confusion. Market closed 60 points above where it opened but still a bear day. Since we broke below the shallow bull trend line on the daily chart, this is no longer a triangle and bears increased their chances of making new lows below 17844 over the next days. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls bought the new lows and rallied for 270 points. Tells you that bears are fine with taking profits at new lows and bulls still in btfd mode. Bulls want a second leg up, like they did on Monday & Tuesday. Measured move up would bring us exactly to the high of the week 18774. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears need to trap bulls buying the dip there under 18500 or they risk another high above 18700. Since bears closed the us session below the 1h 20ema, I give the better odds to the bears for follow through selling below 18200. A weekly close below 18000 would be amazing for the bears. Invalidation is above 18500. short term: Neutral until I see follow through selling below 18350. Both sides have reasonable arguments and the market was two sided all week, with big swings in both directions. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. trade of the day: Tricky day again. The bing selling began 3 a.m. CET so long before EU opened. I joined the bears at around 7 a.m. and caught a 80 point ripper down. There was no bullish price action and just selling going on. Then came the hard part below 18300. It was obvious market was trying to bottom and to exit shorts but taking the long was hard. You have to be really mentally flexible to take the other side after such a strong move. Trade of the day was the long bar 13. Bar 9 was strong enough but bar 10 did not trade above it. Bar 11 + 12 were good signal bars and 13 was the follow through. That was good for 200 points. I missed it.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
DAX H1 | Potential bearish breakoutDAX (GER30) is falling towards a potential breakout level and could drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 18,175.94 which is a potential breakout level. Stop loss is at 18,300.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 18,036.36 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 100.0% projection and the 127.2% extension levels. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
1