DAX Good potential for nice ProfitFor me is Good setup for Buy.
It's look like more buy orders on the bottom
Smart Money works
After open London I will take decision.
D-DAX
DAX H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementDAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,593.36 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,660.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 18,352.60 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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2024-07-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes all read except DJI. Given the overbought conditions especially for the russel, tis was expected. Tech selling continued and is accelerating. For Nvidia all but 1 remaining bull trend line are broken and if bears can close the gap down to 114, they can probably print 100 over the next weeks. My measured move target 96 is from 2024-07-06. Selling today was strong enough to expect more tomorrow, especially going into the weekend.
Commodities - Gold printed a rather neutral doji on the daily chart after a new ath 2488. Will we sell off from here or can they go 2500? I don’t know. 2500 is an obvious magnet but Opex is around the corner and maybe too many yolo’d into 2500 calls.
Oil got the expected bounce to 83, which I have been writing about since Sunday. Buying was strong enough for follow through tomorrow but bears need to keep it below 84 or this is not a pullback anymore.
Bitcoin - Market has still not touched the 4h 20ema since Saturday. Very strong buying by the bulls but it gets weaker. I don’t know if they can break out above again without a deeper pullback first. It’s also very bullish, that nasdaq sells off while btc stays above 62000. Should only look for longs as long as market stays above the 4h ema.
dax
comment: Will change from dax cfd from EasyMarkets to dax futures from now on. Market opened below y close and quickly filled the gap before bears took over and grinded it down. 18500 was bought as expected but the two legs up were so strong, that bears did not try to force another test of 18500 and market went mostly sideways, which is a neutral signal going into tomorrow. The bear channel is holding properly but bears would need a weekly close below 18500 for more selling next week. Market has formed a triangle with the bull trend line and the most recent bear channel resistance line and market will break out tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 - If 18500 is broken for good, next support is 18360
bull case: Bulls bought where they had to and stopped a bigger sell off. They need to break the bear channel for another test of 18900 or higher. They bounced at the daily 20ema yesterday and today they closed above it again, which means that bulls are technically still in control but if they do not reverse it tomorrow, it’s night night.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears now had 3 decent legs down to 18500 and market then oscillated around the 50% pullback from the recent bull trend, which is 18570. As long as the bears keep it mostly below the 1h 20ema and inside the bear channel, they are good and market will continue down. Their target is a weekly close below 18500, which would make most bulls cover and it would be a strong sell signal going into next week.
Invalidation is above 18720.
short term: Neutral between 18500 - 18650. Bearish below and bullish only on a strong break above the bear channel.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Longs from the strong open were decent but you had to think fast. After the gap close market quickly reversed and since it reversed right at the 1h 20ema, that was your hint to look for shorts next time market gets near it.
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears got follow through down to 18600 where Bulls were eager to buy and not wait for the market to hit the daily 20ema or the bull trend line. That’s strength by the bulls. My target was 18570 and we got 18590, that’s decent enough. The buying in the US session was still surprising to me but then I guess it’s up again. Last stand for the bears is 18740ish where the weekly 50% pullback is but I doubt it can hold.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18600 / 18900
bull case: Bulls bought the double bottom 18600 above the bull channel support line and now they want back up above 18800 and print a new ath. The broad bull channel leads exactly to the ath and leg1 and leg2 were 630 and 550 points big. If we get 500 points up, that would lead us to 19100.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears failed at 18600 and now odds favor the bulls to get back above 18800 again. Can the 50% pb at 18740 or the broken triangle bear trend line act as resistance? I highly doubt that. Got nothing for the bears here.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Bullish if we stay above 18600 for at least 18800 but probably higher.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Again buying a double bottom at big support on the 1h tf. Bar 8 + 14. Both had bigger tails below and market found not enough sellers below 18600. Had to get long latest bar 17. Buying bar 16 was tough because you would have bought right under the 1h 20ema and previous resistance. Any long below 18600 was king.
2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong day by the bears which was just a healthy pullback on a higher time frame. For bears to do some actual damage they need to print strongly below 18670 again. A measured move down would lead to 18570ish. Since bulls and bears have valid arguments here, I expect more sideways movement until we get another breakout above or below. No opinion on who wins it. Bullish above 18800, bearish below 18670.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900
bull case: Bulls see today as a pullback to the 4h 20ema and want to print a new ath while they have the momentum and trading above the higher tf ema. They also closed the market above the breakout price 18722, which confirms the bullishness, if we rally from here again.
Invalidation is below 18670.
bear case: In my weekly post I wrote that buying above 18800 is bad not matter how you look at it and bulls got another big rejection. The market now has formed a broad bull channel where the support line is around 18530, so another 170 points lower and coincidentally it’s also where the daily 20ema is. Enough reasons to have a stronger argument for another leg down by the bears.
Invalidation is above 18800.
short term: Bearish until we hit the daily ema or at least 18570. Invalid above 18800 or strong close above the 1h 20ema.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
trade of the day: buying the double bottom with y close
DAX Sell opportunity at the top of this pattern.DAX (FDAX1!) has been following our May 17 (see chart below) projected path very closely and as mentioned, it has been a repeat of the May - July 2023 Megaphone consolidation so far:
The price is back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and we have adjusted the Megaphone to the wider price-action that was given, in contrast to the 2023 one. As a result, we are expecting the index to get rejected around the top of the Megaphone and the long-term Channel Up.
That will be our next short-term sell opportunity, targeting 18000 (the June 14 Low), which by the time of the rejection should be very close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the untested long-term Support level since November 15 2023.
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#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level.
comment: Big down, bigger up. Again. High was high enough to qualify as another double top but the high also undershot the bull wedge resistance line. Bulls have not been able to print more then 3 consecutive bull bars since May. Why would they now? Bulls bought dips and I doubt they want to buy above 18800 all of a sudden. Odds favor the bears to trade to the bull channel support around 18500 over the next 1-2 days.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900
bull case:
Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema.
Above is from last Sunday and still valid. As long as bulls trade above the daily 20ema and inside the bull channel/exp triangle/wedge (yes all apply), it’s bullish. Problem with the bull case is, do you really want to buy above 18800? Market knows only rejections above this price so no matter how you put it, new longs here are bad. Can you buy intraday dips at support for scalps? Absolutely.
Invalidation is below 18360.
bear case: Bears are at the exact same spot as last Sunday but just a tat higher. They want a big reversal again at multiple resistance above 18800. They also see all the rejections from the past months at this level and shorting here has been very profitable. They also know it’s a bad buy for the bulls up here. Odds clearly favor them to trade back to at least 18600 but we will probably see 18500 early next week.
Invalidation is above 18900. Market was rejected twice here on Friday and reversed. Bears do not want to see the market testing that price again or they will probably give up.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18666 and now we are at 18857. High of the week was 18927 and the low was 18362. Outlook was ok. I said we test back down and we did even 100 points lower than I thought. Also said bulls were in control above all ema. I absolutely did not think bulls can do 18900+ again but here we are.
short term: Bearish at least to 18500. It’s 50/50 if bulls can do a higher high or will only print lower highs from here so I’m not into guessing. Looking for early weakness and then at 18500 absolutely neutral and let the market decide where it wants to go next. Any bad Dax earnings next week will probably flush it below 18500 again.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
Chart update: Nope.
DAX LOCAL PULLBACK AHEAD|SHORT|
✅DAX is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 18,900
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target at 18,700
SHORT🔥
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DAX Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DAX keeps growing but
The index is locally overbought
So after the retest of the
Horizontal resistance
Of 18,887 we will be
Expecting a local
Bearish correction
Sell!
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DAX H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,636.87 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 18,800.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 18,440.29 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
2024-07-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - #daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes just strongly green. No deeper analysis needed. Support held everywhere and markets just melted again. My top call was as moronic as can be. Markets humble you quickly. Obviously I was not humbled enough so far. Does not change my mind about this peak bubble behavior at the end of this trend and we correct/crash into year end.
Commodities - Gold inside a triangle and it’s important for bears to stay below 2390 or very likely breakout above again, shorts preferred for trade back to below 2375.
Oil got the expected bounce a bit later but still there. My target was 83/84 and high was 82.65. I expect some more tries by the bulls but should stay below 84 before more down.
Bitcoin - Bulls got higher than expected but bears did a nice reversal a bit below the daily ema. Market behaves nicely. Good chance we go down to the lows from here at 57200.
dax
comment: Strong day by the bulls in a very tight channel. Bulls need to get above 18650 again to test 18800. Bears want a deep pullback like on Monday. It’s a big triangle with one giant bear trend line and multiple bull trend lines below. Market will have a couple more days inside the range before a big breakout. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema so excuse my short analysis. Market is in balance inside given range.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18380 - 18800
bull case: Perfect double bottom 18370 for the bulls and a strong move for 250+ points. Bulls expect follow through tomorrow and want to reach 18800 again.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears argue for a retest 18600 but they would need a very strong reversal around 18600 and that is not probable. If bulls continue to buy strongly, bears will probably step aside until 18760 and try shorting higher again.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
2024-07-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes mostly had big ups and big downs today. DJI and Russel are pretty wild. Dax puked hard, which I probably announced too many times by now but yeah. 18000 soon.
Nasdaq: Refuses to go down. Every 1h bear bar has a big tail below, means bulls are in max euphoria and buying every dip, every tick. Bottom of the bull channel had 3 3 touches and we can probably expect another test of the highs tomorrow. Can be higher, lower or an exact double top, no never now in advance and it does not matter because you trade them the same. Trading range 20570 - 20770. Peak bubble.
Commodities - Gold support at 2355 held again but lower highs. Give it 1-2 more days until the next breakout and my money is on the bears. Will see 2300 again soon.
Oil mostly sideways today, big support above 81 but still lower lows and lower highs. I expect a dead cat bounce as laid out in my weekly update. Will print below 80 this or next week.
Bitcoin - W4 going sideways with big swings. Decent two legged pullback on the daily chart and could break down again soon but since market went sideways for one week during W2, we can expect a bit more sideways. Small swing short currently after taking big profits from the previous down to 54000. 57855 entry, sl 58800.
dax
comment:
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18580 - 18800
bull case: Bulls tried to print above 18650 4 times on Monday and today and since market found not enough buyers, we tested lower. Bulls gave up below 18500 once market went there the third time today. Bulls are still in a higher low on the daily chart but this bear bar today was the final nail imo.
Invalidation is below 18180.
bear case: Bears in full control again. Below all ema and today they broke below the bear channel and markt held there. Very strong selling and we can expect more. Bears want to test the small bull trend line around 18300. If they break even that, it’s the next trend line around 18200. I do not expect bears to break below that and the triangle will probably play out more days before a big breakout to the downside.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
DAX H1 - Sell SignalDAX H1
We have just shifted up our short tool here, yesterday we were just a mere 5 or so points away from our black line, sell zone. We are really trying to catch that previous area of resistance and supply price that sits around 18640 price. We are still looking to try and execute something on that basis.
Eyes peeled, we will follow along with this one today and see what we can fathom.
2024-07-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax/oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Trading range price action. Elevator up and stairs down today. Helps no one and we have to wait for tomorrow for a clear direction. Market is oscillating around the 1h and the daily 20ema. Fade the extremes until clear breakout.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18580 - 18800
bull case: Bulls tried again at 18800 and only got a lower high below it. They bought 18600 and until that range breaks, it’s neutral.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Either bears print below 18600 or step aside for another lower high below 18700. Until then, bulls will continue to btfd.
Invalidation is above 18830.
short term: Bullish around 18600 for trade back to at least 18680. Stop has to be 18570 for any long.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000.
trade of the day: Strong small pullback bull trend since EU open and market could not touch the 2m 20ema for 130 points. Market also reversed just as hard but a bit slower couple of minutes after the high. Had to be quick to exit longs once bar 36 traded below 35 without any pullback. Bulls quickly gave up above 18780.
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Friday I wrote on twitter that the highs are probably in and I will stand by that. Can I be wrong by another 100 points in the sp500? Sure but I doubt it. The patterns to sell down are aligning on the monthly, weekly and daily tf. The buying was more than climactic and we can see enough indicators pointing down or are already bad. Big institutions won’t jeopardize their whole trading year with overstaying in this bubble. The past 3 trading days formed a perfect bull trap and if bears can start the reverse early next week, we will see some acceleration downwards. As always, don’t blindly long/short anything. Wait for confirmation before you enter a trade.
dax: Big up, big down, bigger up. Interesting week but again, nasty reversal bar on Friday. I doubt bulls will buy this up again. The right shoulder here looks decent enough on the daily chart and market could drop 600 points from here. Confirmation for the bears is a print below 18500. If bulls are strong, they stay inside the wedge and trade back above 18800. 55/45 for the bears imo.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout.
comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged
key levels: small range 18200 / 18800
bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema.
Invalidation is below 18540.
bear case: Only hope for bears was the decent sell off on Friday for a quick -249 points in 1h which denied the market a daily close above 18700 for 29 trading days. Left shoulder from March/April high was 18836 and Friday’s high was 18822. Close is always close enough. They also see the two bull wedges we have formed and want a break to the downside. Their first target is a retest of Friday’s low 18575 which is almost the open of last week to the tick. If they manage to break below 18540, their next target is the daily 20ema at 18470 and that’s also close to the 50% pb for this whole trading range.
Invalidation is a 1h close above 18800.
outlook last week:
short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18417 and now we are at 18666. High of the week was 18822 and the low was 18190. Outlook was ok. Market closed 40ish points above the open of the week and we made new lows and new highs. Trading range price action, which is why I was and am neutral for this market.
short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: Nothing
Chart update: Bear wave and trend line is gone and added bull wedges.
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Uneventful trading was expect, since US holidays mostly go sideways in a tight trading range. Market had a good spike at the open which had to be faded and that was the trade of the day. Other than that, market is oscillating around 18600, which is 25 points above the open of the week/month. It’s do or die for both sides here. If bulls can break above 18630, 18900 comes in play. If bears win it, we could have a nasty reversal and will be on our way to 18000 again. I still think the bears trend line could be in play, if bears trade below it early tomorrow. If not, successful breakout above and odds will favor the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 18200 - 18600
bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. —unchanged
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout.
Update: Since text above is still valid, I did not change it.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. —unchanged
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just don’t trade on these days unless you are 9/10 days in tight trading ranges profitable.
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2024-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Globex was the low of the day and bulls just bought relentlessly since the EU open. 3 doji bear bars on the 1h chart today will make follow through likely but we are again at the bear trend line in this big triangle and that line held 4 times now. Betting on a breakout is a losing strategy. Wait for it to happen and follow the market.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 18200 - 18600
bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long anywhere. Watch higher time frames because they left no doubt today. I made that mistake and could not get myself into longs. Bad trading on my end.
2024-07-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - SP500 and Nasdaq had bull trends from the open and almost went up in one straight line on higher time frames. Both produced lower highs but given the strength of today, we can expect some follow through tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to reverse here and keep the lower highs, there is no reason why we can’t reverse to the lows of the week again. Market is all still inside their trading ranges and most breakout attempts fail.
Commodities - Gold is again not worthy to be written about. Oil touched the bear trend line today on relentless buying but market gave back around 150 points afterwards. All of my bullish targets are met here and market could very well begin forming a top here before trading lower again.
Bitcoin turned exactly where it had to and where my painting showed it would. There is a tiny bull trend line around 61500 and if that is broken, we will see 58000 or lower again. For the slight possibility that bulls turn this around again and stay inside the bull channel, they would have to break the bear trend line above 63000, which would then open up the road to 65000 again but I think this is very low probability.
dax
comment: 18300 is the most important price for dax for many days now. Today we sold off but market grinded higher to the 50% pb and that is around 18300. We have a decent bear channel which could hold and a third leg down would bring us to 18000 again. It’s still a trading range and a bigger third leg is lower probability. Markets usually have two legs inside ranges, so we could turn up from here to 18500 again. Neutral is the name of the game.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18600
bull case: Bulls need to break outside of the bear expanding triangle and their first target above is today’s open pricea t 18419. If they could do that, they will probably get to 18500 again. For now I think bulls are not good and they don’t have many arguments on their side.
Invalidation is below 18180.
bear case: Strong selling by the bears since EU open and market could not trade above the 1h ema the whole day. They want follow through tomorrow and keep the bear expanding triangle alive. Their targets below are 18100 which is where the bigger triangle bull trend line is. I don’t see them breaking it but if they do, obvious target below is 18000.
Invalidation is above 18400.
short term: Neutral between 18300 - 18370. Bearish below and bullish above (if bulls can break outside of the exp triangle).
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Short since Globex or from the EU open. Low of last week was 18221 so a good place to look to take profits or exit shorts. Market turned at 18190.
Germany's DAX Threatening Big Break Below Trend SupportGermany's DAX index has had a solid 2024 so far, but the shine may be coming off the bullish technicals as we head into the second half of the year.
After hitting a record high near 19K in May, the index has seen its gains stall out. Prices retreated to bullish trend line support in mid-June, and with bulls failing to drive a convincing bounce off that level, the DAX is now at risk of a bearish breakdown below that level of dynamic support. A breakdown could target the March/April closing lows in the 17.7K zone next.
GER30 H4 | Potential bullish reversalGER30 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,050.68 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 17,900.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
Take profit is at 18,370.11 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Daily Trend AnalysisDear Trader Friends,
Today I'm looking @ S&P500 short at the US open and Crude Oil long after the countertrend break on H4/H1.
More details in the video.
Let me know what's in your head!
Enjoy riding the waves!
Zen
2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Funny thing for me is the fact that ath to June high is about 200 points, June to July high now is about 200 and low of the week was 200 points below that. Markets eh. 4h chart tells it the best I think. Market touched the big bear trend line from ath and was rejected heavily. Bulls have going for them that the higher lows getting higher and the trend lines steeper. Means we are forming multiple triangles, which confirms the obvious trading range. Breakout this week. Buckle. Up.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18632
bull case: Bulls making higher lows but every high is sold big time. Only questions imo is, when will they give up? By not with every 1h bar it get’s more obvious that this bull trend is on it’s last legs and if you bought longer term above 18000, you are not happy with the bear trend line. Higher high above 18600 was unexpected somewhat but turned where it had to. Bulls need a strong daily close above 18600 to make bears nervous. I expect another try at 18600 tomorrow or Wednesday.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Bears trapped bulls buying above 18500 but the sell off afterwards was not deep enough to make a good bear case out of this. Bears need start making lower lows and closing the bull gap to 18400 with a bear bar closing on its low.
Invalidation is above 18632 or a 1h close above the bear trend line.
short term: Neutral but if bulls manage to get a 1h close above the bear trend line, it could go much higher much faster.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Best trade was shorting against the bear trend line 18600.
DAX to find support market price?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Our bespoke resistance of 18366 has been clearly broken.
Previous resistance at 18325 now becomes support.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
We look to Buy at 18325 (stop at 18215)
Our profit targets will be 18565 and 18635
Resistance: 18446 / 18500 / 18600
Support: 18325 / 18200 / 18100
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