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D-DJI

DOW JONES Crossed under the MA50 (4h), first time in a monthDow Jones crossed under the MA50 (4h) today for the first time since March 24th. Even though that's a bearish bell, the 1 month Channel Up is intact, thus the trend remains bullish. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the price stays inside the Channel Up. 2. Sell if it crosses under the MA100 (4h). Targets: 1. 34950 (Rising Resistance 2). 2. 33000 (MA100 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is inside a Channel Down ever since Dow started to diverge inside a Bullish Megaphone. This is an indication of a potantial pattern chance from more aggressive bullish to less aggressive bullish/ neutral. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: This is a continuation of this trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
3
4-19-23 [dji]good afternoon, there's a very wise man in this market named C who once asked me a question, C asked: "you know who loses the most amount of money in a bear market?" i was like nah who, C said: "bears". --- the dow bones came down from ath in a simple zig-zag (3 wave move) i am theorizing that it's creating an equal sized move to the upside, but in 3 waves. 3-3-5 is all i'm going to say for now - this will either make sense to you, or it won't - though, i promise not to leave you hanging when the time comes anon. --- when the dow bones take out ath, euphoria will peak out in the entire world - it won't make sense to 90% of the market, as they'll spend most of their time adding to their shorts, wondering "how can this possibly be?". --- here's how, bears keep shorting, market maker keeps squeezing, and they keep squeezing until every last bear goes poof. ✌
TVC:DJI
by Eloquent
DOW(N)? | A Dollar Milkshake ScenarioI feel bad when I am filling up your feed with my non-stop posting. There are too many charts that I want to talk about. I could post them as "updates" to my earlier ideas. But this would be confusing for me and for the reader. Therefore, here is another short chart analysis. The last few months were peculiar. DJI began diverging away from the other main indices, SPX, NDQ. A significantly strong movement of DJI the last few months brings hope to the Equity Bulls. A fast and high-reaching Bull Run. A discrepancy between indices is not necessarily hopeful. In classic Dow Theory, when different parts of the market moved differently from others, it signaled an alert that deserved attention. As a classic example, when the railroad index didn't confirm the general index growth, this could have been bad news. While the Dow Theory is replaced from more modern methods, it is fun looking back and analyzing using the most classical of methods. It certainly gives a new perspective into what we analyze today. While price discounts all, relationships matter. SPX, DJI etc don't live on their own. Their price is highly subject to the fundamentals of the economy, which are hard to calculate. The only thing we can do is take the fundamentals into equation, and make a retrospect analysis into some charts, just to get some perspective. I will now explain why I believe such a discrepancy occurred. An exotic chart follows, making some calculations on DJI. Later on you will understand what this chart means. Similarly for SPX: It appears that there is a fundamental ceiling above. And DJI just upthrusted to reach it. Fundamental ceilings like these cannot be predicted. We can see them from their effect in long-term charts. In 2022, what we lost in Equity value, we gained in Dollar strength. Therefore we calculate DXY*DJI to get some perspective of the absolute DJI price. It is sort-of the price of DJI relative to the world economy. While there are similarities to 1995 - and while anything could happen - I believe that this is a fake-out. But the future of Equities might not be like we expect them to be. The post-2020 period is a period that resembles a blow-off top. In my 1-year experience, DXY and Equities depend on the Yield Curve. We all know that, the Yield Curve has significant importance in calculating Equity performance. While short-term movement depends on the yield curve, the long-term movement depends on long-term yield rates. And this correlation between the Yield Curve and DXY makes sense. The yield curve represents the "rate money is created out of thin air". It's inverse represents the "rate money is destroyed". DXY is a measure of dollar strength. Strength of currencies depend on many factors (most of which I don't have the knowledge to analyze). One of these factors is currency scarcity coupled with interest rates. With all of that we can conclude to the following consequences of a possible dominance of the dollar. -- It is obvious that dollar dominance will lead DXY much higher. -- Money Supply is rapidly decreasing. The FED is dedicated into killing inflation. -- A correlation between DXY and the inverse of yield curve might lead to the following conclusion: A decisively high DXY needs a deep yield inversion. And perhaps we are stuck with a multi-year yield inversion. Price might get rejected upon attempting to enter the long-term formation. It will have significant trouble re-entering the money-creation-area (positive yield inversion) As for the effect in equities, things are quite complex... For the following charts, I will be replacing DXY with the yield-curve, which is the fundamental movement that affects dollar strength. Until now, Equities haven't felt the effect of the Yield Inversion. This may soon change. Price reached a significant retracement and with a sloped ceiling, bearishness is apparent. This chart is concerning for equities. It describes the absolute strength of the Equity Market. And with so significant divergences in such a big scale, it comes to show the sheer scale of the damage that might be coming in equities. And it will be real damage, damage that we haven't already felt. All of these are calculations are in relative performance. It is hard to calculate the effect in equities in absolute terms. One thing is for sure: A deepening yield inversion will keep the real equity prices higher for longer. Therefore we cannot calculate anything while we are in this upside down period. And who knows... The recession everybody expects may never come. If the yield curve is negative for years, the dollar will be making higher highs in strength. And a strong dollar isn't necessarily bad for equities. It is in the hands of corporations to keep the game going, and investors happy. In the years to come, the equity market may not be able to make new all-time highs. But this is not a lose-lose scenario for equities. Companies instead of rewarding investors with higher index prices, they can reward them with higher dividends. After all, an investment in dollar-denominated markets is like investing in dollar itself. And if you believe in the Dollar Milkshake, then everything measured in dollar is most definitely for you! The recession everyone is convinced that is coming, may never come. Capitalism has worked tremendously well for the US. QE and the Stock Market mania fed the .com bubble. Who knows, maybe QT and the Dollar mania may feed another bubble. Capitalism and money work in mysterious ways... Bubbles and Recessions come when nobody expects them to come. With so much money printed, we either created a recipe for disaster, or a recipe for the biggest bubble humanity has ever seen. Who knows what the effect might be if that money supply is put to work. And with such a significant shift in Bonds (from long-term bullish to long-term bearish), the money invested in them will eventually leave the Bond market and seek other adventures. No matter what happens, the future is scary and exciting! Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4
DOW JONES: Huge bullish breakout. Can target 35,900 this quarterDow Jones crossed above the long term Channel Down and turned technically bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 66.042, MACD = 233.400, ADX = 55.323). Given that the bottom pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which was something we pointed out previously (see prior idea at the bottom), the new buying wave can take the price a lot higher than our short term target on R1 (TP = 34,350), even above R2 to Fibonacci 2.0 and R3 (TP = 35,900). The 1D RSI indicates that the index is on the biggest strength since late November. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
ULong
by InvestingScope
2
DOW JONES Broke above the Channel Down. Nothing can stop it.Almost a month ago we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down: The price has hit our medium-term target and zooming out into the longer term horizon we can see the grand pattern being an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). This is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase. The long-term target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4 weeks at 35400. Note that if it follows the late October 2022 rally, then it is possible to give one last pull-back within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before our target is materialized. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ULong
by TradingShot
1
➖15% S&P500 Index drop by H&S pattern💣The S&P500 index is moving near the resistance line and 🔴resistance zone($ 4,200- $ 4,100)🔴. The S&P500 index also seems to be forming the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders pattern in the 🟡Time Reversal Zone(TRZ)🟡. I expect the S&P500 index to drop to the 🟢support zone($ 3,590-$ 3,490)🟢 after breaking the neckline. S&P500 Index (SPXUSD) Analyze Daily time frame⏰ (Log Scale). Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
SP:SPXShort
by pejman_zwin
dji h3 IHS bulls buy low after pullback target 36 000🔸Hello guys, today let's review 3 hour price chart for DJI . Speculative Inverse H*S setup in progress. This pattern was recently covered in the reversal technical patterns overview, details see below. 🔸Strong V-shape recovery in progress should complete later near neckline at 34 230. Then we should get a decent pullback to form the RS of the IHS pattern structure. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: after re-test of the neckline of the structure and subsequent pullback bulls should be ready to buy low near 32 700, which is also the RS of the pattern. Normally, we should target at least 36 000 based on measured move price projection. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:DJILong
by ProjectSyndicate
20
DOW JONES: Inverse Head and Shoulders possibleDow Jones may be close at completing an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern while being bullish both on the 4H (RSI = 60.932, MACD = 165.930, ADX = 34.060) and the 1D timeframes. A pullback to 32,800 and then rebound would confirm that. Even without it, we are ready to buy the breakout above the Channel Down, targeting the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 34,350). If the Inverse Head and Shoulders is indeed confirmed, we will target R3 and Fibonacci 2.0 by late May (TP = 35,900). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
U
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES has started a rally that will amaze mostDow Jones is currently on the 3rd straight green 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), testing the top of the 4-month Channel Down. We have previously seen almost the same pattern during the 2015-2016 correction (E.U./ China/ Oil crisis). A fake-out below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) initiated a rebound above the correction's Lower Highs trend-line and formed a Channel Down. This Channel Down in 2016 was nothing but a Bull Flag pattern which after another fake-out, this time below the 1W MA50, it rebounded and almost reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension with a final pull-back on Fib 0.786 that kick-started a very aggressive rally. Even the 1W RSI patterns match. Do you think that's the blue-print for Dow? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
3
DJI Dow headed for a correction.. More pain ahead...If we look at the DJI we can see that on the chart the current price is jumping WAY outside the upper Bollinger Band and the 50 MA is actually above the midline of the Bollinger Band. That can signal a couple things. 1st the pricing being so far beyond the upper band means is due for a sharp downward correction towards the Midline at best and to the bottom band at worst. 2nd, with the 50 MA being above the midline of the Bollinger Band can signal that the local trend support is actually now future resistance. The trend of the bands has the midline the more likely of the 2 targets and that would put the dow in a local down trend in the short term. Based on what the chart is showing me right now, I would say 31.5k Dow is way more likely to be hit before 34k dow. Depending on how long the correction last, it could be a catalyst for a bigger down trend with a much larger correction still to come later this year. Fed rate decisions, earnings data, lay offs, and a few more international trade issues like Yuan settlements, will play a large factor in the future larger correction timing.
TVC:DJIShort
by TheStockMarketSniper
4
SPX | Let The Roaring '20s Begin!As the famous billionaire said in December 2021 (elon), the "prophet" who is apparently loved and trusted by everyone. I don't know why... Disclaimer, SPX by itself will probably not follow this path, things are quite complex as you will soon find out. First of all, Recession is not something simple. Everyone talks about it, but it is not always meaningful. This year, equities weren't in a recession. While on the one hand the prices dropped, the denominator (dollar value) increased. The 2022 "Recession" is not apparent, we have just hit the mean. Note that the channel is automatically drawn from 1950 using the Log-scaled Linear Regression indicator. Taking note of the above, we can interpret that instead of SPX following the 1920's bubble, the pair SPX*yields will. These charts above give us a valuable lesson. Until now, a .50 increase in yields had little effect on the direct equity value. A monthly rate hike of 100 points had little meaning in the 80s. A change from 15% to 16% on yields for example, is just a 6% increase in the immediate price of money. A change from 0.25% to 4.50% in 2022, is an 18x increase. This means that the immediate effects of such an increase are dramatical. The 2022 "recession" occured just because price was so rapidly revalued. The change in dollar value is "effective immediately", when a rate-hike comes. Everything measured in dollars is immediately repriced accordingly. Even if price may take time to show it, cost does change. The USOIL true price changed immediately. US investors enjoy a massive discount in oil price, while the rest of the world "enjoys" a bull-flag. But this phenomenon will not last forever. Rates will eventually hit a ceiling and the FED will pivot. I will now try to "estimate" when the tightening schedule might end. Had the 2020 crash not happened, this would be an average rate-hike schedule. It lasts 7 years. This puts the end of the tightening schedule to the end of 2023. So to add these together, we expect a QT environment until the end of 2023, and stable decrease of yield rates starting in 2024. Now I will try to make sense of them all, and try to find a probable behavior of SPX based on the yield hike-drop schedule. For simplicity, I pretend that the terminal rate is already here (or priced in). After all, the US10Y chart shows signs of peaking. We can conclude that even if this is not the terminal rate today, and based on the FED announcements, the market has already priced in the full extent of the tightening schedule. I will return to the modified USOIL chart. We have seen that in reality, the price for oil (the main contributor to inflation) dropped a lot thanks to the tightening schedule. The USOIL/yields chart is like a time machine. It shows the final price equities/commodities will take when the dollar-repricing (rate hike) circles around the economy. We can conclude that the rate hike schedule was successful and will cool down inflation (inside the US) With all of the above, it is safe to assume that: Inflation has peaked (for now?). The rate-hike schedule / QT environment will persist until the end of 2023. From 2024 we can expect rates to drop. By multiplying or dividing with yields, we can make conclusions for the reason why we were not in a recession this year. Since equities and yields are multiplied to calculate the true equity value, we don't have a clear indication on why the true value is increasing. Charting SPX/yields can help us understand "thanks to who is the true SPX chart increasing". By analyzing them, we can get more indications on the future movement of SPX. We assumed that yields have nearly peaked. They will remain constant or increase a little for the months to come. Equities have no reason to continue a sell-off now that yields have almost peaked and the worst of inflation has passed. So we expect equities to increase compared to steady yields in the following months. Taking all of that in account, we can end up with the following charts: A probable scenario: An improbable scenario: More about the trends in the following idea: Moral of the story, always have a plan B. Make sure not to waste it creating a bubble. When inflation drops and equities bubble, there will be no reason for rates to increase. Just like in the 2018-2020 Recession, we will beg for the FED to drop rates to feed the bubble. When there is no more room for yields to drop, equities will. The equity market is infested with weapons of mass destruction (derivatives). It is bound that we see a burst of this long-term bubble. Final question of the night: Why would anyone print an astronomical amount of money to make so little in the end? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I've talked about how the 2018-2020 Recession no-one remembers is a micrography of the 2008-2009 Recession. For reference, look at the rate-hike schedule, and notice the little "step" that appears in the end of the 2008 rate-drop schedule. The same appeared in the 2020 crash. On the left, the modified-GFC is visually similar to the standard GFC chart (with and without yields transformation). On the right, the bubble SPX experienced in 2018-2020 now looks like an actual recession. PS2. This crazy idea I posted may not be so crazy after all... PS3. In 2025, Nostradamus (another pseudo-prophet) told that WW3 would come. The same I heard from many others. endtimeheadlines.org PS4. The two sources of wealth are theft and inheritance. -Aristotle Onassis PS5. I am not a trader, I am a father. Take what I say with a grain of salt.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
41