Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event.
During 1920s - 1930s we experienced a "pandemic event" in both scenarios *odd*.
It created a shock crash followed by a pandemic rebound that the masses called "bubble" this is where valuations broke due to a black swan event.
We use the SMA 2D (200) that shows the larger trend of the market and we see similarities of this "bubble" crash bounce in 1922-1924, oddly similar to 2022-2024 right?.
What's even more dangerous about today is the market in the roaring 20s was held back by the Gold dollar peg, today? we don't even have that. We just have interest rates.
Following the 1924 situation the New York FED cut funding rates to avoid a "unemployment crisis" and it began the fueling of the final stage of a major bubble.
Differences? during the pandemic in the 2020s Governments forced central banks to print trillions and trillions and enforce lock downs to stop the circulation of the currency. Following this they then raised interest rates globally sucking capital back into "bills" "Money Market Funds".
What happens next?, the FRED will cut interest rates aggressively to avoid unemployment spiking trying to front run the future and in return these rates being lowered will rally bonds and release capital and new leverage back onto the market based on the debasement of QE we experienced. Yes the QE during the pandemic barely touched the markets where people were calling 2022 a "bubble".
SPX/USM2 has broken out of a major trend while the FRED aggressively raised interest rates indicating this new "trend" cannot be contained without raising rates higher and its impossible to do so with the Government debt interest.
A new bubble fueled by
"Artificial Intelligence, Bitcoin, Electric Cars, Robotics, Biotechnology"
could be rivalling the
"automobile, radio, and electricity" fuel of the 1920s.
The big question is does it end in a giant crash without a depression? and the answer will ultimately be how well the leveraged is contained in the later stages of the market.
D-DJI
DOW JONES correction to extend until the Fed.Dow Jones (DJI) did what we expected of it 3 weeks ago (August 13, see chart below) and after pricing a Higher Low at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up, it rebounded and reached the All Time High (ATH), pricing a Higher High:
In continuation of that analysis, we now expect the new Bearish Leg to extend to possibly as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the case with the May 30 pull-back.
The 1D RSI suggests that a 35.00 value would be ideal to signal a buy (same as May 30, see how both RSI fractals priced the top on the 70.00 overbought limit), while a Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD would be the final confirmation of the buy.
Our long-term Target remains 42400 (+11.00% from the Higher Low, the same % rise as the July 18 High).
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Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
DJI Collapse Imminent | Caution All AssetsThis is how we hold the finance sector accountable.
Caution in all assets.
The world economy is grinding to a stand-still.
This selloff will be deep and obviously very painful.
There are a ton of hype stories and narratives out there - I have covered and poked fun at many of the ridiculous narratives in previous posts.
We knew this day would come.
US30 Daily/4hr/1hrBefore:
Pre Analysis: Looking for price to respect 41,230 to take long position. In this area we've had multiple rejections which formed a beautiful 1hr support. On the 1hr we can see a possible liquidity grab around 41,180 where on a higher timeframe (Weekly + Daily structure) we have respected putting in HL.
After:
41,230 Area respected again putting in bullish momentum.
US30 / DJ30 / DJI Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideMy Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Newbies,
This is our master plan to Heist US30 / DJ30 / DJI Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
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Why the 'record high' on Dow Jones underwhelms...Another day, another record high for a US stock market. Only the one seen on the Dow Jones underwhelms given it is not backed up by its own futures market, let alone its peers. We're also approaching end-of-month flows (which can prompt fickle price action). And keep an eye on the Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday (US) which can single-handedly drive sentiment on Wall Street.
DJI 8/26~30 LONG Forecast
1D Chart / LONG
Technical Grounds
-NV > +250M
-TV Strong buy
-LinReg Pearson <0.95
-Pivots HL still Long-Green
-LinReg > 90 degrees (uptrend)
-Reverse Head & Shoulders Formation
-NV shows a declination trend of negative bars
-Price crossed up SMA100, SMA20 & LinReg Mid Line
-Price crossed up index resistance on past Aug 15th
-Price level far from cyclic ending point of Sep 13th
-POLITICAL FACTOR: Elections coming / +Media Influence
-Fed announcing interest rate cuts (as political influence in elections / investors mindset)
SHIBUSDT / LONG ....
DJI - Key Resistance Zone 4 HourDJI has entered a key resistance zone of the 4 HOUR time frame.
There are 3 likely scenarios. A,B,C on the chart.
We are waiting for a definitive move on the charts, we are looking for a BREAKOUT, either BIG VOLUME breaking the resistance level, or a REJECTION of the resistance level, followed by great volume.
The third move that could be made is ACCUMULATION / RANGING. Where there is little to no volume with no definitive move, we will NOT ENTER if this is the case.
1928 Has Begun Early, Powell Has Given In. QE 3.0
The linchpin was Japan, the Japan interest rate scare has started the panic with the FRED.
1. US Debt spiral is 34.5T.
2. US Debt Interest at 1T and the system has buckled.
3. MMF at all time high
4. Majority still believe a yield curve that has not worked since 2008 will cause a recession.
5. The USA cannot have a recession or it defaults on its debt.
Rates have to be cut and fast, MMF will start pouring into the market, cheap credit will start reinflating all assets. QE 3.0 will be commenced shortly to deal with the US Debt death spiral.
This is the biggest financial crisis around the corner, people will short it who don't understand the USD currency is about to be debased by figures we can't imagine.
This is the end game and it could last years.
Its fun speculating the deflationary crash down, where's the debasement inflationary melt up?
US30 Market breadth EMA200 [IAS]Introducing our Market Breadth Indicator, specifically designed for traders looking to gain a deeper understanding of the overall health of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This indicator tracks how many of the 30 Dow Jones stocks are trading above their 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), giving you a quick snapshot of market momentum.
Traders typically use market breadth indicators to assess whether the market is broadly strong or weak. When more stocks are trading above their 200-day EMA, it suggests a healthy, bullish environment. Conversely, fewer stocks above this threshold could indicate a weakening market or a potential downturn. Our indicator takes this concept and visualizes it in an easy-to-read histogram, ranging from 0 to 30, where 0 represents no stocks above the 200-day EMA and 30 represents all stocks above this key level.
🔶Usage
Using the Indicator in your trading is straightforward, you can simply implement it by looking for:
1. Bullish Signals: When there are higher number of stocks highlighted in red (e.g., 25-30) trading above their 200-day EMA, it’s a strong signal that the market is in a robust uptrend.
2. Bearish Signals: When the histogram starts declining towards the lower end (e.g., 0-10, where below 6 is highlighted in green). This can be use as a warning sign that the market might be entering a bearish phase.
3. Confirming Trends: The indicator is also useful for confirming trends. For example, if the overall market is rallying but the histogram is showing a decline in stocks above the 200-day EMA, it could be a sign of underlying weakness. This divergence can alert you to potential trend reversals.
This indicator is versatile and can be adapted to various trading styles, whether you’re an intraday trader, or a longer-term investor.
Intraday Trading:
For intraday traders, this tool can be use to find short-term lows or peaks. As the histogram rises above the green zone in the session it may indicate increasing buying pressure, suggesting opportunities for quick long positions from the low. Conversely, if the histogram declines from a red zone, it could be a signal to explore short setups. Using this indicator alongside your usual intraday strategies can help you fine-tune your entries and exits, reducing risk and enhancing your trading precision.
Longer-Term Trading:
For longer-term investors or those looking to position trade on a weekly basis, Market Breadth is an excellent tool to assess the overall health of the market. A histogram consistently near its upper range (e.g., 25-30) over several weeks signals a strong, sustained uptrend, making it a good time to add to positions or initiate new ones. On the other hand, a gradual decline in the histogram over time may indicate that the market is weakening, suggesting a more cautious approach, such as rebalancing your portfolio or exploring defensive strategies. This longer-term perspective can help you stay aligned with the broader market trend, reducing the risk of being caught on the wrong side of a major market move.
By using the indicator across different timeframes, you can better align your trading strategy or even plan your risk management with the underlying market conditions, making more informed decisions whether you’re trading by the minute or planning for the months ahead.
DOW JONES Don't lose sight of the great picture. Still bullish.Last week, while Dow Jones (DJI) was still under its 1D MA50, we called for a major rally, as technically the 5-month Channel Up has just priced its new Higher Low:
The index has now almost reached the Target of the first Bullish Leg of this pattern, pointing to a potential relief next.
On the larger picture however (1M time-frame), we had posted an article named 'Secret Cycles' on April 12 2024 (see chart below), during Dow Jones' previous pull-back that again inflicted fear in the markets, calling for a strong buy:
It is this chart that we revisit and expand up today, as we don't think the long-term trend has changed. We want to maintain a clear long-term perspective and following August's massive recovery 1M candle, we believe that Dow will enter by Q4 2024, the final stage (rally) of its current Cycle.
That has historically been 1 year at least, so as long as the index keeps holding and closing the monthly candles above the 1M MA50 (red trend-line), we will continue buying all monthly dips. Our 48850 long-term Target is intact.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41000.Dear Colleagues, because the big wave “4” (38549) has completed, now I believe that the price is in wave “5”. This means that the price probably has not yet completed the upward movement. I expect a small correction, then a continuation of the upward movement at least to the 40900-41000 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DJI Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for DJI.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 40,668.09.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 40,100.63 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DowJones - 4H Bearish SetupBLACKBULL:US30 has been exhibiting signs of bearish pressure, despite recent upward movements. The chart shows a significant decline below the ascending trendline. The recent upward movement appears to be a pullback, potentially setting up for further declines. Two key resistance zones have been identified on the chart, where the index may face renewed selling pressure.
Fundamentally, the broader economic environment is contributing to the bearish outlook. The possibility of a recession looms large as the Federal Reserve has postponed rate cuts in response to persistently high inflation. Rising unemployment claims are another concern, signaling potential economic weakness. These factors are creating an environment where risk assets like the Dow Jones are likely to struggle, and any rallies may be short-lived.
The current pullback in the TVC:DJI could provide a better entry point for those looking to short the index. The key resistance levels identified on the chart could serve as optimal zones for initiating new short positions, with the expectation that the index will continue its downward trajectory.
Given the macroeconomic uncertainties and technical setup, traders should remain cautious and consider the potential for further declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This cautious stance is supported by both the chart analysis and the broader economic fundamentals.
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 40071.Dear Colleagues, in the last forecast the price almost reached the target 41680, but sharply started to decline. This means that the price is in a complex correction (WXY).
I expect that the price has almost finished the downward movement in wave (Y), and will start an upward movement soon.
The level where the price may come to is 38799, but in general I expect an upward movement at least to the area of 40071.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
The Rip you Short? or the last Dip to buy?Last week's decline DID NOT BREACH THE APRIL LOWS . To be 100% objective, as long as price is above the April lows, we still retain the ability to make one more high. That is the purple arrow on the above chart. Price will need to breach 5587 in pretty much a straight shot now, as this would be a wave 3. However, that is not my primary analysis.
My primary analysis is the ES Futures market is in the final stages of it's minute circle b-wave. that should complete in the target box on the chart. From there, price should be declining in minute circle c-of Minor A. In the ES that should be in the area of the April lows, or slightly below 5,000.
Best to all,
Chris
DOW JONES New Bullish Leg to beginLast week (August 07, see chart below) we made a long-term case of why Dow Jones (DJI) is poised to technically start a new aggressive rally 'right under our nose' and before that (July 25, see chart below), why at the time the correction wasn't over:
As you can see, the index found support on our low tier near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and as the April 19 Low, it touched the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the 2-year Channel Up (chart 2 above).
Back to today's analysis, the price has already rebounded at the bottom of April's Channel Up and has found its first Resistance on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The final confirmation of this Bullish Leg will be when the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross as it did on June 18 and April 25.
Since the Bearish Legs of this Channel Up have been almost the same percentage wise (-6.84%) we expect the Bullish Legs to be too. With the first Bullish Leg being at +11.13%, our medium-term Target is 42400 (just below a potential +11.13% rise).
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DJI Weekly Rising Narrowing WedgeDow Jones Industrial Average has not shown many signs of slowing in its growth.
Here is a bearish biased shape playing out on the weekly chart in the form of a rising narrowing wedge.
Strictly PA, strictly structure. Keep an eye on this.
Looking for a Macro correction to reach to the .236 or the .382 on a corrective movement.
This is a follow up to a macro long idea on the DJI posted back in March 25th 2023.
NFA
Do your own DD
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Dowjones Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 38900 zone, US30 was trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 38900 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
DOW JONES Is a new rally starting right under our nose again?Consistent with our macro approach to investing (particularly with stocks), we continue to address the recent stock market correction by examining similar behavioural patterns of the past.
It was 10 months ago (October 11 2023, see chart below), when Dow Jones (DJI) was under another short-term turmoil phase that turned out to be exactly that, short-term:
As you can see on that chart, while most were panic selling, we addressed the idea that Dow was "starting a new Bull rally under our nose". And as you can see, the index did exactly that, as it rebounded at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Rising Wedge, starting a new +23% rally.
Our basis for this projection was the similar Rising Wedge pattern of September 2015 - November 2016 (almost 1 year), which after a fake-out for the week hands (green circle) on January 2016 (as it was on October 2022), it rebounded in October 2016 at the bottom of the Wedge and posted a +19% rally.
You can see that so far the lows are highly symmetrical as the first was priced in the month of October (2016 then and 2023 now) and the next in April (2017 and 2024 respectively).
The initial rally that broke above the Rising Wedge in 2017, had a small upward extension that then gave a new pull-back for an August 2017. If symmetry continues to dictate the price action, then the current August Low (2024), may be our new bottom as Aug 2017 was.
On the past fractal, the new rally was concluded on a +30.72% rise. As a result, we see it highly possible to get a new long-term peak early next year (January 2025 if symmetry continues) at around 49000.
High as this Target may seem at the moment with the current economic slowdown fears, these are the standard conditions that make rallies start "under our nose".. Especially as November's U.S. elections are approaching.
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