DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 8th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish . To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 32135.41, where the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located. I have a relatively safe stop loss set at 30775.37, where the 38.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located. My take profit will be set at 34106. 01 , where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
D-DJI
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationThe overall bias for DJI on the H4 chart is bullish. In addition, price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. With the NFP news data coming in below expectations, we are looking for a pullback buy on DJI at 30886.18, where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. We've set a relatively safe stop loss at 29527.14, which is just below the previous low and the 78.6% Fibonacci line. The take profit point will be at 34106. 01, which is the previous high and the 100% Fibonacci line.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 8th November 2022 On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish . To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 32135.41, where the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located. I have a relatively safe stop loss set at 30775.37, where the 38.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located. My take profit will be set at 34106.01 , where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
The Dow Jones Has Bullishly Confirmed A Partial DeclineBoth the DJI and the SSPX have been trading within this Descending Broadening Wedge since the year begun and both have shown Bullish Variables that have allowed it to hold above a Horizontal Support Level. In this time The Potential for a Partial Decline has made itself present on the chart but the SPX has yet to confirm the Partial Decline of the Descending Channel. However, where the SPX has so far failed to the Dow has Succeeded in that it has come back up to challenge the Supply Line of the Broadening Wedge after having failed to come back down 100% of the way to test the Demand Line thanks to it being held up by a strong weekly horizontal support level and some strong amounts of Bullish Divergence at that very level.
If we are to go by Bulkowski's statistics for Descending Broadening Wedge Partial Declines the DJI now has an 87% chance of successfully breaking out of the Wedge to the upside. The measured move for such a pattern would take us back up to the inception of the pattern. I personally will be targeting the 0.886 and 1.13 Retraces.
Hopefully this will be a sign of things to come to the SPX which is still trading near it's Equally as Important Horizontal Support Level.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 7th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish . To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 30775.37, where the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located. I have a relatively safe stop loss set at 29418.41, which is slightly below where the 100% Fibonacci line and 78.6% Fibonacci projection line is located. My take profit will be set at 34106. 01 , where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. With the NFP news data released being worse than expected, we are looking for a pullback buy on DJI at 30886.18, where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. We have a relatively safe stop loss set at 29527.14, which is slightly below where the previous low and 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 34106.01, which is where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line is located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 7th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 30775.37, where the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located. I have a relatively safe stop loss set at 29418.41, which is slightly below where the 100% Fibonacci line and 78.6% Fibonacci projection line is located. My take profit will be set at 34106.01, where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the price reached our sell entry at 33077.47, where the 78.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. We've set a fairly safe stop loss at 34534.39, just above the previous swing high and the 100% Fibonacci line. The take profit will be set at 30886.18, the intersection of the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 4th November 2022On the H4 chart, the price reached our sell entry at 33075.03, where the 78.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. We've set a fairly safe stop loss at 34461.48, just above the previous swing high and the 100% Fibonacci line. The take profit will be set at 30775.37, the intersection of the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MACD Indicating Bullish Trend for Dow Jones despite Fed FearThe MACD is displaying a Bullish trend for the Dow Jones on the weekly timeframe, indicating more potential gains on mid-term timeframe. (Short-term outlook is bearish on daily timeframe). I am still bearish on long-term timeframe, due to completion of up-trend Elliott Wave cycle and now in the early stages of a down-turn in the market on multi-year scale. But, this MACD data is in line with my overall thesis that we are in an ABC correction in the mid-term with the possibility of continued gains in the coming months / next year. (But, with the B-wave dipping in between the A & C waves).
Down Goes The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI)Today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1M linear scale chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI).
In the chart, I added in the Keltner Channel (KC), RSI and MACD as well as review the Great Recession history to get an idea of where the DJI is headed. It seems that the DJI has been moving up an ARC with a possibility to come down and touch it again. It is currently inside a descending channel with the DJI about to touch the median line of the Keltner Channel. Based on the KC median line history, there may be a strong chance DJI price gets rejected. If DJI price falls as much as it did during the Great Recession, it could come down to the $18K level where there is strong support. The RSI and MACD could support that type of drop as both of them are no where near the oversold region. If the DJI price goes above the KC median line, there is a stronger chance to see the price go to $33K-$34K.
This is presented on the monthly chart so please have patience.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 3rd November 2022The price hit our sell entry at 33075.03, where the 78.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located, on the H4 chart. We've set a relatively safe stop loss at 34461.48, which is just above the previous swing high and the 100% Fibonacci line. The take profit will be set at 30775.37, which is where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines intersect.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationThe price hit our sell entry at 33077.47, where the 78.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located, on the H4 chart. We've set a relatively safe stop loss at 34534.39, which is just above the previous swing high and the 100% Fibonacci line. The take profit will be set at 30886.18, which is where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines intersect.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI - hawkish FOMC indicates downsideHello everyone,
After todays FOMC meeting which saw an increase to the Fed Funds rate by 75bps, the hint for Fed's Powell continued inflation pressures yet to be resolved are clear. The hint for "Fed Pivot" was not, with clear emphasis that hikes should continue.
Technically, on the Weekly TF, DJI is facing strong resistance at 0.786 fib level as well as top of 50 MA, which seems to have a rejection. The move was sparked by hitting the 0.5 (50% retracement) on Pivot hopes as well as earnings hopes. It is very likely we should test major support level of 28600, if not, a move onto to trend line support. Elliott wave count also suggest a top of the current trend.
With both earnings and Pivot hopes being crushed, I'm waiting for further economic data which could give me an idea for the next possible moves of DJI.
Let me know what you think.
RTY Daily MFI overboughtSomething I noticed while flipping through some charts, RTY1! daily MFI is overbought along with GM, PCAR, YM1! (Dow futures), Dow components like WMT, CAT, YNH, etc along with XLF (financial ETF).
Definitely not chasing a Fed pump even if my 3 hr indicators show oversold. My favorite stocks are overbought, that's a signal to take a pause. Will be shorting when 3 hr indicators go overbought.
Dow Jones vs. S&P 500The chart above shows the relative performance between the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 on a yearly basis.
You can see that we are currently sitting right on the 125-year support line. (This may possibly be the longest-lasting support line I've ever seen).
This chart may be indicating that, in the years to come, the Dow Jones may outperform the S&P 500.
As you know, the Dow Jones consists of 30 blue chip companies. These large, well-established, financially-sound companies have operated for many years and have dependable earnings, and usually pay dividends to investors. Perhaps the charts are telling us that in an era of stagnating growth, persistently high inflation, and higher interest rates, the Dow Jones will outperform.
We see confirmation from the yearly Stochastic RSI (shown below), which appears ready to begin oscillating back up.
Once the K line crosses above the D line, and the Stochastic RSI begins to oscillate back up on this chart, the momentum can provide tailwinds for the Dow Jones to outperform the S&P 500 for years.
Here's something to ponder: If the charts are showing that the Dow Jones may outperform the S&P 500 for years to come, and the charts also show that the S&P 500 may outperform the Nasdaq 100 for years to come (click on my below post for more details) what does this say about the relative performance between growth and blue chip stocks in the years to come?
The charts may be hinting that when inflation remains persistently high and growth persistently low, blue chips stocks may outperform, especially relative to the technology sector (Nasdaq). Take a look at the chart below which highlights the similarities between the relative performance of the Dow Jones and Nasdaq today and in 2000, at the start of the Dotcom bust.
However, it's important to note a few things. First, ideally, we should wait until 2022 closes to definitively make this type of comparison on the yearly chart. Second, this is merely a relative performance analysis. Therefore, it's possible that even blue chip stocks may tank during the coming recession (click on my post below to read more about my thoughts on the coming recession).
Relative performance may show that one asset or index may outperform another asset or index, but it technically does not indicate whether either will go up or down. The Dow Jones may simply just outperform the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq by declining less than them. Therefore, trades should not be based only on relative performance.
To further parse out where the greatest alpha ( alpha generally refers to outperformance) may be during the coming recession, I analyzed each Dow Jones component to find which may be the best to hold individually during the coming years.
I found that Apple and Microsoft (which are, of course, also in the Nasdaq) will likely underperform. These assets are extremely overbought on the highest timeframes and are showing signs of bearish divergence.
In particular, I see bearish divergence on Apple's 6-month chart, going all the way back to the Great Recession. See below for an analysis:
We see above that Apple has been experiencing bearish divergence since 2007.
From late 2019 into 2021, during a period of unprecedented quantitative easing and limitless cheap money from the Federal Reserve, Apple underwent what I call a "fake out". I consider a fake out to be a period when RSI breaks above its trendline after a period of bearish divergence and while in overbought territory. Typically this signals the final phase of a bull run (though since this is a 6-month chart, the time it will take Apple to show clear signs of decline will take months, if not years).
As you can see above, now Apple is testing the RSI trendline from below. This trend line is likely to resist the RSI (and therefore the price) back down. The decline of Apple is going to be quite a shock to the broader market as Apple is contained within so many ETFs and mutual funds and is indeed the most capitalized company in the world. I will try to write a longer post about Apple in the future but will say that: In my opinion, based solely on the charts, Apple is going to disappoint a whole lot of people over the coming years.
On the flip side, several Dow Jones components are showing the potential for upside over the coming years. Specifically, I see signs of a long term bottom in IBM and Walgreens (WBA). See the below charts.
What the above chart shows is that Walgreens is sitting on support in its relative performance to the S&P 500. Indeed, a double top formed, and the measured move down has been completed. Below is the yearly Stochastic RSI oscillator for Walgreens relative to the S&P 500.
The chart above shows that the Stochastic RSI oscillator on the yearly chart of Walgreens performance relative to the S&P 500's performance is ready to oscillate higher. This could potentially provide years, if not a decade or longer, of a tailwind for Walgreens to outperform the broader market. (I have no clue about the fundamentals of Walgreens, but since price discounts everything all investors know and act on, I do not have to analyze the fundamentals of Walgreens to know that it may outperform the S&P 500 in the years to come).
My strategy is to accumulate a position in Walgreens (WBA) at the first signs of a bullish setup (a bullish setup is necessary because, again, one should not trade based on relative performance alone). Once I enter a position I then plan to swing trade it throughout the coming years. (By swing trade I mean: First, buy a stock when it is showing a bullish setup (i.e. consolidation), hold with a trailing stop loss until it becomes over-extended on the weekly timeframe, then sell some of my position when weekly is very overbought and has a low setup probability, and then buy back the sold position (plus more using the profit) when it appears consolidated on the weekly timeframe and ready to move up again. I continue this pattern until the yearly chart indicates a top is in.
I plan to do the same for IBM which is a Dow Jones component that is showing a very similar setup as Walgreens. See below for my charts.
These are just my thoughts and are not meant to be financial advice or investing recommendations.
Be sure to leave a like if you agree or comment or if you disagree.
Although I definitely see a recession coming in the year(s) ahead, there are plenty of long opportunities out there. There is one particular stock that I think will absolutely explode over the coming years. I've already made about 50% on my position in it in the past month. I'll be posting more about it in the weeks to come. Those who follow me may already know which company I'm talking about!
DJI Potential For Bearish MomentumOn the H4 chart with price hitting our previous target, we are looking for a potential sell at 33077.47, where the 78.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. We have a relatively safe stop loss set at 34534.39, which is located slightly above the previous swing high and 100% Fibonacci line. Take profit will be set at 30886.18, where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 2nd November 2022We are looking for a sell entry at 33272.34, where the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located. We are looking to take profit at 30775.37 where the 38.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located. We have a pretty safe stop loss set at 34508.80 where it is slightly above where the 100% Fibonacci line and previous high is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.