An update to my Dow Jones chart I posted July 18th 2023The original chart was on a much larger time frame, but we are getting so close to the second measured move target now I figured I’d make this update on the daily chart. We are now about 3 pips away from hitting the 2nd bigger invh&s pattern’s full measured move breakout target. Always amazes me how these things come to fruition, and in this case I was able to predict with macro chart patterns it would reach these heights 7 months before it happens. That’s not to say it wasnt happening this whole time because it essentially was, just had to not fall for the initial break above the necklines and also the follow up break back below the neckline….classic head fakes I expect to see this higher target hit in February, where the market will go from there I’m really not sure..this could indeed be a fulcrum point but it could also behave like solana just recently did and just blast well above the target or after reaching the target continue to pump. Either way I expect this will at least reach within a half pi of the target but think probability is high of it hitting the target 100% still. *not financial advice* I will post a link to the original chart from last July down below. Thanks for reading, following, and rocket boosting my charts. Much respect.
D-DJI
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to target is the area of 39297.Dear colleagues, despite the fact that the price is in a downward movement, I believe that the five-wave movement has not been completed. I expect that the price will not update the minimum of wave 4 38463, but will approach it, and then the upward movement in wave 5 will begin. The nearest target is the area of 39297.
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DOW JONES Head and Shoulders formed. Potential visit of Feb lowsDow Jones (DJI) had formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame and ahead of the first 4H Death Cross in 7 months (since August 21 2023), the probability of a short-term correction seems stronger than ever.
Technically H&S patterns target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension but we will settle for a slightly higher target on Support 1 at 38050.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to wave 1 top area 39275.89.Dear colleagues, the price has made wave 2 and now I expect the beginning of the movement in wave 3. I assume that the price will rise to the target of the wave 1 top area 39275.89. This is the first minimum target for wave 3.
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DOW JONES - We Could See A Major Collapse Within 12 Months...I've compiled my latest comprehensive analysis of the stock market, as I strongly believe it offers crucial insights into market psychology, spanning across Cryptos, Stocks, and various assets.
To dispel any notions of spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), I meticulously outline the pattern and highlight key levels to monitor. Should this analysis hold true, it would elucidate why Cryptos might experience further decline, particularly considering many were introduced at the market's peak, potentially reflecting the rampant speculation prevailing in all sectors.
While I evaluate each chart independently, the broader implications on market psychology could catalyze a widespread sell-off across all markets.
Please keep in mind: This methodology isn't based on Elliott Wave theory, so any assumptions suggesting otherwise would reflect a misunderstanding on your part. AriasWave is a unique approach I've developed over almost a decade.
DOW JONES Strongest sell signal since August!Dow Jones / US30 has hit the top of its Channel Up.
Once the 1day MA50 breaks (has been in support since November 2nd 2023), we will have a sell validation.
In addition, the 1day RSI is on the strongest Bearish Divergence since February 2020 and the start of the COVID crash.
Sell than and target 36700 the 0.382 Fibonacci level from the top.
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DOW JONES: Mega sell signal formed.Dow Jones has hit the top of the 18 month Channel Up and is already being rejected, turning neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.769, MACD = 112.170, ADX = 21.784). This is a rejection that can evolve into a full bearish reversal as the 1W RSI broke under its MA trendline. This is important because every time this break out happened (dashed vertical lines), the index had technical corrections.
Inside the Channel Up those initially hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Consequently, we can target at least the S1 level (TP = 37,030) but it is equally likely to reach even below the 0.382 Fib and contact the 1W MA50.
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DOW JONES Short-term correction has began.Dow Jones (DJI) has had yesterday the strongest red 1D candle since February 13 and 2nd strongest since the October 27 2023 bottom. Just as recently as last week (February 26, see chart below) we called for a 'very clear bearish signal' as not only was the price near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up but also the 1W MACD was on a Declining Histogram similar to the August 2023, December 2022 and August 2022 tops:
To get a better idea of the shorter term implications of that signal, we view Dow today from the 1D time-frame, where the 1D RSI has been on a Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against the index' Higher Highs) December 19 2023. Again within the structure of the Channel Up, the same RSI pattern was formed during the August 01 2023 and December 2022 Higher Highs. Both declined by virtually the same percentage (-9.25%).
Such a decline would push the price as low as 35650, which is where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) currently is. Instead we would like, as mentioned, to keep a shorter term perspective here and time a 3-4 week target. Once the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, it will be the most optimal sell confirmation, with a conservative short-term Target being Support 2 at 37120.
Notice that this would be near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the Channel and if it takes place in early April, it will be as close to the 1D MA200 as possible. In any case, the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold barrier, is technically always a solid level to start buying again for the long-term. Note also how the current top is virtually the same rally % (+21.00%) as December 13 2022. This shows that we shouldn't neglect the symmetry of waves within this long-term Channel Up.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to support area 38604.Dear colleagues, the price rushed upwards and did not update the low 38045. This means that wave 2 has long been formed and now the formation of the upward wave 3 is underway. But we are observing a price gap, and as we know, the gap is usually closed. Besides, it does not violate the wave structure in any way.
So I suppose that the price will close the gap and reach the support area 38604.
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Solana’s breaking above an invh&s that’s also a right shoulder Priceaction is currently above the neckline of this daily chart inverse head and shoulder pattern on solusd with one daily candle close above the neckline so far. Should it trigger the breakout the measured move target is $135 which would put price action above the neckline of a much bigger weekly chart inverse head and shoulder pattern’s neckline. The measured move breakout target for that larger invh&s. Pattern would be around $242. Last October we saw the Dow Jones Industrial chart also start to break above a big inverse head and shoulders pattern that also had a right shoulder which was it’s own smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern just as we are seeing come to fruition now on the Solana chart. We must remember on that chart we had an initial fakeout above both necklines around July so there’s always a chance the initial break above the necklines for this solana chart starts as a fakeout too. However since then, The DJI chart has hit the target of it’s smaller inv h&s target and is very close to hitting its bigger inv h&s target so I’d say using that as a precursor, probability is rather high for solana to also hit both of its breakout targets within the coming months. *not financial advice*
Dow Jones in Focus: Fake Rally?Today, we're taking a closer look at the Dow Jones Index, specifically the E-Mini Dow Jones Futures. It appears we're in Wave (2), overshooting the target and forming an Expanded Flat correction. If there's a turnaround here, typical for such waves, we might see a correction somewhere between 50% and 61.8%. We consider more than 78.6% unlikely, so we're betting on a correction in the 50 to 61.8% range.
Digging deeper, we've spotted an exciting pattern: a short Wave (i), followed by a long Wave (ii), a quick Wave (iii), and a very brief Wave (iv). This sequence could lead us to either Wave (v) or a larger B wave. Should the index continue to climb, we'll need to rethink everything. Surpassing the $40,000 mark would mean we're entering a new uptrend, requiring a different analysis. For now, we're leaning more towards a downward movement than an upward one. After much consideration, we've decided to initiate a short position on the Dow Jones as a bit of a hedge. We're particularly cautious about unexpected market movements triggered by insider trades. This strategy isn't about putting all our eggs in one basket but about spreading our risk.
In short, this strategy is our insurance policy. If the market continues to rise, any loss on the short position would be offset by gains in our long trades. Conversely, if the market declines, the short trade will help minimize our losses. This balanced approach keeps us flexible and eager to see what unfolds.
DOW JONES Very clear bearish signal.Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the the 1.5 year Channel Up, while flashing a very unique medium-term sell signal. That is the 1W MACD Histogram, which is declining, a Bearish Divergence that during that period of time, has initiated 3 declines of more than -9% each.
Given the fact that the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up has extended to almost 21.9%, which is almost as high as the October - December 2022 sequence, we are expecting a medium-term correction back to at least the middle of the Channel Up. Target is 37120 (Support 1) and if a 1W candle closes below the middle, we expect a bottom around the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) at 36000 (Support 2).
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DJI, Elliott wave analysisOutlook for DJI on 12h chart. I will update my ideas from last time.
I think we are on sub-wave 5 of wave (5).
This sub-wave is the last motive wave.
If this scenario is correct, upper-degree wave (b) of c will be completed soon.
The next phase is upper-degree wave (c).
It will probably crash.
Last time my idea.
■Feb 10, 2024. middle-term analysis.
■Jan 27, 2024. middle-term analysis.
DOW JONES: Still bullish inside the Channel Up.Dow Jones has turned neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.990, MACD = 135.700, ADX = 29.049) as it crossed under the 4H MA50 and is on a lengthy consolidation phase inside the two month Channel Up. The 4h RSI is on a Bearish Divergence, which doesn't mean much unless the 4H MA200 breaks, as the very same divergence emerged during the December - January consolidation. If the 4H MA200 breaks, we will prepare our short under the S1 level and target the top of the S2 zone (TP = 37,200). Until then, the Channel Up favors buying (TP = 39,500).
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RSI & Money Flow comparison to other time periodsMarkets may remain irrational for an extended period of time. This can happen even when data conflicts.
For the moment on the daily TVC:DJI :
RSI is weakening.
$ Flow is lower, but it is stable.
Buys slightly outpace the sells since Mid January.
(Only weekly is shown here. Pls see our profile for more information)
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Things change a bit when seen on weekly data. Daily they seem weak but weekly there's 2 things of importance.
Weekly TVC:DJI RECENT indicators show that RSI & $ flow seem OKAY.
Let's compare them to years past.
Compared to 2021:
RSI is lower
$ FLOW same
Compared to 2017 + 2018:
Both indicators are MUCH LOWER!
(makes sense as it takes a lot more $ to move things around as indices and prices are higher)
Showing 2 previous examples, blue boxes) as no market is identical.
But, seeing the past we may get enlightenment to PREPARE for any outcome that may ensue.
AMEX:SDOW AMEX:UDOW
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to 61.8% Fibo 37810.Dear colleagues, the price has gone down. I believe that the price has not yet finished its downward movement and wave 2 will go even lower. I assume that the price will reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 37810.
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TARGET REACHED - And ongoing to Target 2 - 40,0042The trade analysis we had for Dow Jones couldn't have played out better.
On paper and theory, this just rocked to its first target 37,242.
But then, it entered into a trending market. This is where it's very tough for breakout traders to get in.
This is very tough for reversal traders to trade.
This is very tough for range bounded trades to buy and sell.
So, all we can do is wait for the trend to continue up and form a new pattern. Or continue holding and raising the trailing stop loss each week.
But it looks like the next target is set for 40,0042.
I'll wait and observe as it feels top heavy and I don't really have a good strategy to get in right now.
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to 61.8% Fibo 39259.Dear Colleagues, I suppose that the price is in an upward movement and will continue its movement in wave 3. I suppose that a small correction is possible, after which I expect that the price will come at least to the area of 61.8% Fibonacci extension level 39259.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to 100% Fibo 38931.Dear colleagues, I suppose that the price will continue its upward movement. Now I see the formation of wave 3 and it may reach the area of 100% Fibonacci extension level 38931. Before this movement a small correction to the 38186 area is possible.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!