EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Bias with Short-Term Bullish PotentialTraders,
Here's our analysis across different timeframes:
Daily Chart: Strong bearish sentiment prevails, supported by a bearish channel formation, signaling potential long-term bearish trajectory.
4-Hour Chart: Consider the high of last week as a prime level for short positions. However, be prepared to switch to a bullish outlook if this level is breached.
15-Minute Chart: Look to short the pair for intraday trading opportunities, with a clear entry point at the cluster of pivot points, a reversal point and previous week high.
Be caution and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
Best regards,
D-EUR
EURUSD 29 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - GER CPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
No major economic data releases are scheduled for Monday, limiting significant movement in the pair. However, the intervention in JPY leading to a USD weakness which will provide support for EURUSD some Bullish stand.
Also note that the current week includes EU CPI and US FOMC / NFP which most probably result in a volatility and investors are positioning for that upcoming news events.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Sell: Phase B (HP)
Long: Phase C (LP)
2.
Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move.
Currently price at a 15m/4H Supply zones that could initiate the Swing continuation phase.
Possible Phase B Shorts but be mindful that the 4H INT Structure still Bullish and we may see another deep Swing pullback which will reflect on a Bullish 15m Swing BOS.
3.
15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
EUR/GBP potential bullish rise?Price has just bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise to our take profit.
Entry: 0.85516
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.85204
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take profit: 0.85856
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD 28/4/24Starting off as we do most weeks with EURUSD we gave out this idea way back at the start of this month and we are finally starting to see price line up with our bias, now of course as always we are waiting for an idea we have to line up and provide context tot the higher time frame move to then allow us to trade on the lower time frames, this is now in play from the view of the 1hr chart as you see marked on our chart here!
At the end of last week we had a nice break to the downside leaving some clear spaces for us to watch to confirm this downside shift, after all we spent most of last week travelling up with speed and momentum.
now because we see a sign this might be changing i am looking to confirm this and sell into the daily and weekly trend of down!
Points to watch this week.
FVG on this new hourly range, OB at the top of the range that gave this move the power it currently has.
Remember we aren't picking and choosing what price does we trade what it chows us and add relevance and context depending on where it decides to do certain things.
Trade what you see, not what you believe you should be seeing!
Euro can rebound up to seller zone, breaking resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago rose a little and then made a strong downward impulse to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, breaking the 1.0740 resistance level. After this movement, the EUR turned around and started to rise inside the upward channel, where it firstly a little rose and then declined to the buyer zone. Price some time traded in this area and soon exited from it, making a fake breakout of 1.0625 level and then rose almost to the resistance line of the channel. But soon it turned around and declined to support line of the channel, after which rebounded up, making a fake breakout of the support level one more time. After this movement, the Euro in a short time rose to a resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and not a long time ago rebounded and started to decline. At the moment, I think that the EUR can almost decline to the support line of the channel and then rebound up to the seller zone, breaking the resistance level. So, that's why I set my target at the 1.0760 level, which is located in the seller zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD1h - The hourly timeframe appears less clear despite our short context. The main target was reached in the form of equal lows, which were forming throughout the week. I believe it's quite likely to see a breach of the previous day low (PDL) on Monday, after which the continuation of the long trend may begin. However, this is just speculation. It's important to see how the Asian session behaves as it often provides many clues for intraday trading.
EURUSDHello everyone and welcome to the weekly TOP-DOWN analysis.
The week was not the most active in terms of position accumulation, but at the same time, it was quite informative.
1D - The daily timeframe continues to be in a short context. The first problematic zone was completely covered, but we did not receive the expected reaction and continued the long movement, overlapping the FVG. The main problematic zone is the FVG formed on April 10 during the news. I believe that after partially overlapping it, we will continue the short movement towards the lower targets.
EURUSD 29-3 May 2024 W18 Weekly Analysis - FOMC / NFP Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-3 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Potential EUR Upside:
Weaker Dollar: The recent US economic data, particularly the lower than expected GDP growth, has weakened the US dollar. This trend could continue if upcoming data disappoints.
Eurozone Data: Key Eurozone data releases (flash GDP and CPI) could show signs of improving economic health, boosting the Euro.
Potential EUR Downside:
Strong US Jobs Report: The highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could show strong job growth, strengthening the dollar.
Hawkish Fed: The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a key event. If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path to combat inflation, the dollar will likely strengthen.
Overall:
The EUR/USD sentiment is currently uncertain. The direction will depend on the outcome of key data releases and the Fed meeting.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price currently within a Weekly demand zone that can initiate a minor Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Currently price is within the Weekly Demand and swept Liq from the left.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone.
We didn't mitigate any HP Supply to initiate the INT Structure continuation phase so the scenario will be that price still could continue to mitigate the Daily Supply Zone.
Other scenario that with the corrective more currently we are in price will continue down without the mitigation of a Supply zone.
More price development required / LTF confirmations for the 2 scenarios.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD - Long Trade IdeaHello folks,
I am generally bearish on EURUSD at the moment, and I am still waiting for lower prices, but we could see more bullish momentum first. The logic behind this is of course to lure more bullish traders into the market, but I also do not see any significantly high impact news yet.
However, if you see my other analysis, I am looking for a monthly close below the Monthly iFVG in order to be used as resistance, as mentioned in my previous analysis. That being said, take this trade idea as less than a A+ setup. Most of the probability of this trade lies price being at a ranged Discount, and in the efficacy of my R2F Gap coupled with a possible London Judas Swing.
Safe trading!
- R2F
EURO - Price can bounce up from support level to resistance lineHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price entered to wedge, where it at once bounced from support line and little rose, but then started to decline.
Price fell to resistance area, after which bounced up to resistance line of wedge and then in a short time declined to support line.
Also, price broke $1.0845 level, but later EUR rose to resistance area again, exiting from wedge, and some time traded in.
Then Euro made downward impulse from resistance area lower support area, after which turned around and started to rise in channel.
Inside channel, price broke $1.0670 level and later rose to resistance line, but recently bounced and fell.
In my mind, Euro can decline to support level and then bounce up to $1.0765
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
EURGBP Breakout and Potential retraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a buying opportunity around 0.85600 zone, EURGBP was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.85600 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD 26 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US PCE Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15 Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
PCE as the next hurdle: The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is the key event today. This data is a crucial inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve.
Potential scenarios based on PCE:
Higher than expected PCE: This suggests stronger US inflation, which could bolster the USD. Investors might anticipate a more hawkish stance from the Fed (raising interest rates), making the USD a more attractive investment. This scenario could weaken the Euro.
Lower than expected PCE: This suggests cooling inflation, potentially weakening the USD. If inflation is under control, the Fed might be less aggressive with rate hikes, making the USD less appealing. This scenario could strengthen the Euro.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
Current Sub-INT structure doesn't have any clear Demand and we are currently within the Supply Zone formed during the news yesterday and with PCE today, i'd expect high volatility similar to yesterday.
Today for me is a day to analyze and not to trade 😃
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
With the Swing containing Bullish and Swing Low did hold the volatility yesterday, I couldn't find a clear POI within the Swing to continue Bullish except the Demand down.
Expectations with the current PA is that the Weak Swing High will get run. But be mindful that today US PCE news will have the market ranging till the news.
As indicated in the 4H analysis, Today is the day where you analyze and don't trade as more clear setups will be available next week.
3.
15m Demand for possible longs if we are continuing Bullish.
EUR/GBP potential bearish reversal?Price is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.85856
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.85999
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.85516
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could EUR/CHF reverse from here?Price is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.98001
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.98458
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 0.97394
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURNZD intraday dips continue to attract buyers.EURNZD - 24h expiry
Bespoke support is located at 1.8000.
A lower correction is expected.
We look to buy dips.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Daily signals are mildly bullish.
We look to Buy at 1.7995 (stop at 1.7955)
Our profit targets will be 1.8095 and 1.8125
Resistance: 1.8050 / 1.8090 / 1.8109
Support: 1.8000 / 1.7980 / 1.7935
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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EURGBP - Short Trade IdeaThis is a short idea I have, and most likely it will come to fruition. We have a good liquidity pool taken out with a great reversal displacement. We also have a great draw on liquidity for the buyside.
See here for my analysis on the Daily timeframe.
Refer to my notes within the screenshots for context.
Happy trading!
- R2F
EURUSD 25 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP / JoblessThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Euro's recent strength: The Euro has gained some ground against the USD lately, fueled by weaker US data and supporting the Pullback Phase after the YTD lows.
US data as a game changer: The upcoming US GDP and Jobless Claims reports are the main event. Strong numbers could significantly strengthen the USD, reversing the Euro's recent gains.
Cautious market: Investors are holding back until the data is released, creating a wait-and-see sentiment that could limit the Euro's upside potential specially with US PCE Inflation Report tomorrow.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
4.
As price reached the 4H Supply with Bullish OF, price showed a bearish reaction as expected to facilitate a Pullback to recent Demand.
Price tapped into the 4H Demand and currently in the momentum to create a new high.
As indicated previously, the Liquidity on the left above the 4H Supply and possibly the Swing EQ are the targets.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long: Phase A
Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS)
2.
Price mitigation to the 4H Demand.
3.
Price turned bullish after mitigating the 4H Demand turning INT structure to Bullish.
With INT structure is Bullish, expectations are set that we are going to target the Weak Swing High.
But be mindful that we are still within the 4H Supply Zone that is partially mitigated yesterday so Phase A2 after the BOS will be tough. But Phase C will be applicable if we have a Bearish iBOS.
Approaching resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementEUR/AUD is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.65020
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss: 1.65572
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 1.64152
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD is approaching an important resistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.08000 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURAUD: Rejection at the top of the Channel Down.EURAUD has turned marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.934, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 23.651) and dropped under the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. This happened at the top of the Channel Down. We turn bearish, aiming at a symmetric LH wave of -4.31% (TP = 1.60250).
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