EURUSD📌 Trading Instrument: EUR/USD
🔶 Bullish Breakout with Strong Potential 🔶
📝 Market Overview:
After 16 days of consolidation, EUR/USD has finally broken out of the diagonal resistance, suggesting a bullish move ahead. I took a position just before the breakout, assessing the potential reward as extremely favorable compared to the risk. The trade has a remarkable Risk-Reward Ratio of 17.5:1, making it highly attractive even with a low initial risk.
The breakout is supported by triple bullish divergences, signaling a strong potential for upward momentum. Moreover, the market is currently trading near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level, a critical point often signaling reversals.
Additionally, we have a solid support zone just below, which has held firm for 750 days. The absence of any significant breakdown from this level strengthens the bullish case. If this support holds, it will continue to fuel the upward momentum. However, any breakdown here could signal a notable trend reversal, so I'm closely monitoring the price action.
Given these technical signals, I opted for a day trade with the potential to extend it through the week, depending on price movement and relevant news flow.
🎯 Trade Details:
Stop Loss (SL): Today’s low
Take Profit (TP): 1.09528
This trade leverages several technical signals:
Bullish divergence across multiple timeframes.
Holding near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level.
The strong support that has not broken for 750 days.
The lack of a breakdown further solidifies the bullish outlook, and if the breakout gains momentum, this could be a highly profitable setup.
🚨 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly. Markets are highly volatile, and you should only invest money you are prepared to lose.
D-EUR
EURUSD hit the 1day MA200! Support or bearish break out?EURUSD hit today the 1day MA200 for the first time since August 2nd and its 1day RSI turned oversold for the first time since April 16th.
That is a very bearish development but market exhaustion and the need for a relief rally may hit the price just like it did on the August 25th 1day MA200 test.
We remain bearish as per our last trading plan but any rebound near the 1day MA50 will be an opportunity to open additional sells.
The target is intact at 1.07700 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Previous chart:
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Hours to Go: Will ECB Cut Rates? Hours to Go: Will ECB Cut Rates?
The euro zone economy flashed modest signs of life earlier this week, with a series of indicators suggesting tepid but still growing activity for a region that has narrowly avoided recession for over a year.
However, the numbers are possibly unlikely to deter the European Central Bank from moving forward with a rate cut on Friday, a decision that markets have nearly fully priced in as the countdown enters its final 24 hours.
Ahead of the decision, the EUR/USD is trading at its lowest since August 2, breaking below its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages. The key question: will the ECB’s rate cut provide much-needed support to the euro, or will sellers attempt to erase the gains from the August 2nd rally?
EURUSD to turnaround?EURUSD - 24H EXPIRY
Trades at the lowest level in 48 days.
Bespoke support is located at 1.0875.
We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 1.0870 from 1.0778 to 1.1202.
Selling posted in Asia.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
The medium term bias is neutral.
We look to Buy at 1.0875 (stop at 1.0825)
Our profit targets will be 1.1037 and 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1008 / 1.1038 / 1.1050
Support: 1.0875 / 1.0870 / 1.0775
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
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DreamAnalysis | EUR/USD Key Liquidity Levels Hit - What’s Next?✨ Today’s Focus: EUR/USD – A Market Mover
We’ll dive into the latest price movements and analyze key market levels to uncover potential trends.
🚨 Previous Analysis Recap:
In our last analysis, we anticipated a further drop after a reaction into the 4H imbalance. While the predicted decline occurred, the extent of the move exceeded our expectations.
📊 Current Market Overview:
The price has recently swept key liquidity levels, including the Previous Week Low (PWL) and Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL). Currently, the market is consolidating, a sign of liquidity building. At this stage, we’re watching for a deeper retracement or possibly a full reversal.
🔴 What to Expect: Short-Term vs Long-Term Scenarios
Here, we explore potential outcomes for both short-term and long-term, outlining both bullish and bearish possibilities for day trading.
🗣 Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, a retracement toward internal liquidity levels, such as Low Resistance Buy-Side Liquidity (LBSL), and lower time frame imbalances (1H and 15m) is expected.
🗣 Long-Term Outlook:
The long-term scenario points to a possible expansion higher, targeting the Previous Week High (PWH), which aligns with a Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the weekly chart. However, beyond this point, further clarity is needed before determining if the price can continue higher.
🕓 Key Levels to Watch:
These critical levels could influence price action:
- PMH: Previous Month High
- PML: Previous Month Low
- PWH: Previous Week High
- PWL: Previous Week Low
- BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
- SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
- Daily FVG: Fair Value Gap (Imbalance zone)
These levels represent potential areas for liquidity grabs or market rebalancing. FVGs are zones where price may retrace before continuing its trend.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A bullish setup could be identified on lower time frames (like the 15m), where a Market Structure Shift (MSS) with confluence would signal an entry. The target would be the Buy-Side Liquidity, as highlighted in the short-term outlook.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
For a bearish outlook, we require further confirmation on lower time frames. The focus would be on a continuation towards Sell-Side Liquidity, although identifying clear targets may be more challenging at this point.
📝 Conclusion:
Stay flexible as market conditions shift. Monitoring these critical levels and setups will enhance your strategy and help you identify high-probability trades.
🔮 Looking Ahead:
Stay tuned as we continue to track NASDAQ, DXY, EUR/USD, and other major markets. More timely insights will follow as trends develop.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0877
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.0835
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take profit: 1.0951
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Sell EUR/CHF BreakoutThe EUR/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.9385
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.9350
2nd Support – 0.9330
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.9410. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
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EURUSD: Channel Down on 1H giving two trades.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 30.958, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 45.308) as it has been on a non-stop decline, which is even more effectively displayed on the 1H chart. You can see the flawless Channel Down making -0.90% Bearish Waves and then pulling back to the 0.5 Fibonacci only to get rejected again under the 1H MA100. This gives a potential double trade, initally with a short now to complete the -0.90% wave (TP = 1.08555) and then long to the 0.5 Fib (TP = 1.09000).
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Sell EUR/USD Strong DollarThe EUR/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0937, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0885
2nd Support – 1.0860
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0960. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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EUR/USD Starts Tuesday with a Slight Rebound BUT...The EUR/USD pair began the Tuesday session with a modest rebound after touching its lowest level since early August. The pair is currently trading around 1.09090, showing some signs of recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious as traders await key economic data releases and central bank policy announcements.
Market Sentiment and USD Resilience
On Monday, the US Dollar (USD) remained resilient against its major counterparts, thanks to the lack of significant macroeconomic data releases and a generally cautious market mood. This led to a slight decline in EUR/USD, as the greenback held its ground. With no high-impact economic reports due early this week, the USD's strength was mainly driven by investor risk aversion and uncertainty surrounding upcoming data.
Key Upcoming Data: Eurozone Focus
The focus for EUR/USD traders will shift to the upcoming Eurostat Industrial Production data for August and the ZEW Survey from Germany’s ZEW economic research institute. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for both Germany and the Eurozone is expected to show improvement in October, and any upside surprise could offer the Euro some support, potentially lifting EUR/USD from its recent lows.
However, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday. With the ECB's stance still unclear, traders may hold back from making large moves until there’s more clarity on the central bank's next steps.
US Data: Thursday in Focus
While this week started quietly, Thursday is set to bring more significant economic releases, particularly from the US. Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are all scheduled for release, which could provide further direction for the USD. Until then, the EUR might have some room to recover, but the overall outlook remains cautious, and further USD strength could pressure the pair lower.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Pressure Persists
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains within a weak demand area, which could offer a minor rebound. However, the broader trend suggests that bearish pressure could continue, pushing the pair towards lower demand levels.
The COT (Commitment of Traders) report indicates that retail traders turned short on the Euro last week, while institutional investors (often referred to as "smart money") became more bullish. This divergence suggests that the market may be searching for a more solid demand zone before any substantial retracement occurs. Our analysis points to further bearish momentum, potentially targeting the Demand Number 2 or even lower towards Demand Number 3 before the pair finds meaningful support.
Outlook and Strategy: Patience Until Thursday
At present, we are holding back on opening any positions in EUR/USD, as the situation remains uncertain, and key data releases on Thursday could significantly shift market dynamics. While the pair may see some minor gains in the short term, the outlook is still dominated by bearish sentiment. We expect more clarity following the ECB’s policy announcement and the US data releases later this week.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD's slight rebound on Tuesday provides a temporary relief, but the market remains cautious as key economic data and central bank decisions loom. Traders should remain patient and watch for stronger signals from upcoming events before making any substantial moves.
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Euro is falling over economic downturn and the ECB’s rate cuts
The market anticipates the ECB reducing rates further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting this week. This is due to the eurozone inflation rate dropping to 1.8%, which already meets the central bank's target. Moreover, mounting worries about an economic recession have amplified the demand for the ECB to persist with interest rate cuts. If the Eurozone industrial production for August and ZEW Economic Sentiment for October, which will be announced today, fall below the previous month's figures and market consensus, the euro may weaken further against the dollar.
EURUSD sustained its downtrend and fell to 1.0900. After EMA21 death-crossed EMA78, the gap consistently widens, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD stays below EMA21 and breaks 1.0870, the price may fall further to 1.0780. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches EMA21 and holds above 1.1000, where EMA78 coincides, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.1050.
EURO - Price can turn around and start decline to support lineHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price traded inside flat, where it declined to resistance area, which coincided with $1.1125 resistance level.
Next, price bounced and tried to grow, but failed and started to decline inside falling channel, exiting from flat.
In channel, EUR broke $1.1125 level at once and continued to move down, until it reached $1.0955 level.
Price some time traded in one more resistance area and later broke $1.0955 level too, after which started to trades below.
A not long time ago, price reached resistance line of channel, so, I think that Euro can reach resistance level.
After this movement, price will turn around and start to decline to $1.0790 support line of falling channel.
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EURUSD Bearish trend intact.The sell signal after the Double Top (September 23, see chart below) and the RSI Lower Highs rejection turned out to be a very accurate one and the price has already covered 75% of the distance to hitting our 1.08350 Target:
Given that there shouldn't be much divergence until then, we want to focus today on the 1W time-frame. As you can see, based on the ranged (Rectangle) pattern of the past 2 years, the price is at the top of the neutral zone, not even having broken the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1.08350 is located on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and that is the minimum downside we expect, as the 1W MA100 provided the Lows of June 24 and April 15 2024. The long-term Support Zone is located considerably lower than that (1.04500 - 1.05250) and that is technically the downside potential of the pair.
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Bearish drop?EUR/NOK is rising towards the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 11.74053
1st Support: 11.64963
1st Resistance: 11.77924
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Euraud likely can see more downsideHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Overall a bearish chart on the daily, now with the rejection as last R zone on daily, likely to see more downside on EA.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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Euro can break support level and continue to declineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago entered to pennant, where it at once made an upward impulse from the support line to the support level, which coincided with the support area. Then it rose higher than the 1.0930 level, but soon fell back to the support area, where some time traded and then finally broke the 1.0930 level. Next, EUR continued to move up to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and even broke it and reached the resistance line of the pennant. But after this, the price turned around and in a short time declined to support line of this pattern, breaking the 1.1105 level again. Later, EUR quickly rose back to the resistance line, but soon turned around and made an impulse down to the 1.0930 support level, thereby exiting from the pennant and breaking the resistance level one more time. Also recently, the price rebounded from the support level and started to grow. For this case, I think that the EUR can rise a little more and then break the support level and continue to decline. That's why I set my TP at 1.0850 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can grow to resistance area and then continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price fell to resistance area, but soon broke $1.1005 resistance level and entered to flat.
In flat, price in a short time rose to $1.1175 level, which coincided with one more resistance area.
Also, EUR entered to this area, but soon turned around and made correction movement to $1.1005 level.
Then price made upward impulse resistance area, which coincided with top part of flat, but soon started to decline.
Euro made fake breakout of $1.1175 level and fell near resistance line, exiting from flat and breaking $1.1005 level too.
In my mind, price can grow to resistance area and then it bounce down to $1.0850
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EUR/USD:US Jobless Claims Surge - Analysis.US Jobless Claims Surge, EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Mixed Market Sentiment
The latest U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 4 unexpectedly rose, reaching 258,000—marking the highest level of new jobless benefit seekers since June 2023. This spike has captured the attention of market participants, as it hints at rising unemployment pressures in the U.S. labor market, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's future rate policy. While these higher-than-expected claims suggest some softening in the labor market, the Fed’s battle against inflation continues, leaving investors split on the timing and scale of any rate cuts.
In line with our analysis from yesterday, we anticipated a possible bullish impulse for the EUR/USD, which has materialized as expected. The pair rebounded slightly from a key demand area, with the current outlook pointing to a potential retest of the 1.1000 level or slightly above, touching the supply zone. However, given the mixed signals in the macroeconomic environment, we are not taking any positions at the moment, opting to wait for a clearer scenario to emerge before making any trade decisions.
The Complex Rate Environment
Thursday’s data, which revealed rising unemployment figures alongside persistent inflation concerns, has muddied the outlook for the Fed’s next move. On one hand, the higher jobless claims have fueled speculation that the Fed might lean toward rate cuts in the near future, aiming to provide relief to the labor market. On the other hand, inflation remains a key challenge, tempering expectations for any aggressive or immediate policy shifts. The juxtaposition of these factors has left rate markets in flux, with traders caught between hopes of a dovish pivot and the reality of persistent price pressures.
This uncertainty extends to the broader financial markets, as investors attempt to gauge how these competing narratives will affect currency flows. The U.S. dollar (USD), as a result, remains a focal point for traders, with the Greenback's movement largely driven by fluctuations in rate expectations and economic data.
EUR/USD Outlook
With the U.S. labor market softening and inflation still a concern, Fiber traders (EUR/USD) are closely monitoring these developments. On Friday, significant European economic data releases are notably absent, leaving the EUR/USD at the mercy of U.S. dollar flows as the trading week draws to a close. As we await more clarity on the Fed’s stance, the pair's short-term direction remains dependent on broader macro trends in the U.S.
Our strategy, for now, is to observe how the price interacts with the 1.1000 supply zone. A clear rejection could pave the way for another bearish impulse in the EUR/USD, but we will refrain from entering the market until a more definitive signal emerges. The next few trading sessions will likely provide critical insights into the future direction of the U.S. dollar and, by extension, the EUR/USD pair.
In conclusion, while the rising U.S. jobless claims offer some support for rate cut expectations, the stubbornly high inflation complicates the Fed's path forward. As the EUR/USD hovers around key levels, traders are advised to stay patient and let the market reveal its next move before jumping in.
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Sell EUR/AUD Triangle BreakoutThe EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.6280
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.6192
2nd Support – 1.6152
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.6330. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
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Bullish reversal off 50% Fibonacci support?EUR/AUD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.61880
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.61006
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.63341
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD All 4H contacts are sell opportunities.EURUSD has turned completely bearish as after the Sep 25th rejection, it broke under the previous Channel Up and formed a Death Cross on the 4hour time frame.
It continues to be a similar sequence of events as the post December 28th 2023 High.
We expect a similar Channel Down to lead the price lower and every MA50 (4h) test will be a sell opportunity.
Sell and target 1.07700 (-4.00% from the top).
Previous chart:
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Is a New ECB Rate Cut Just Days Away? European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde signaled that weaker-than-expected inflation will be on the agenda at the central bank’s October meeting next week. This has fueled speculation that policymakers could move to cut rates again.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Germany’s sluggish growth has added to the ECB’s challenges. While other parts of the eurozone are showing signs of recovery, Berlin issued a stark warning this week, forecasting its economy will contract for a second consecutive year—a major drag on the region’s broader outlook.
Technical signals also potentially point to downside risks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, and a break below the 1.0900 level could see traders targeting the 200-day moving average near 1.08710
EURCHF: Successive rejections on the 1D MA50. Bearish.EURCHF is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.451, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 26.515) as it's been failing to cross over the 1D MA50 and reverse the trend. Given that the long term pattern is still a Channel Down, this gives a new sell signal with the RSI suggesting we are running a similar below 1D MA50 sequence as August 2023. For the remainder of the year, we are aiming for the bottom of the Channel Down, close to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 0.91500).
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