GOLD - New all-time-high soon! (Buy now)Gold looks extremely bullish in the short-term and also in the long-term. 5000 USD or 10000 USSD in the next few years is definitely very likely, but right now let's focus on the short-term price action.
We can see that GOLD is in a strong uptrend, and we can use a simple trendline tool to measure its strength. The price respects the blue trendline pretty accurately, and the uptrend is valid as long as this trendline holds. Of course, nothing lasts forever, and to be bearish, we need to wait for more confirmation.
It's always important to do an Elliott Wave technical analysis because markets always move in waves, not in a straight line. This helps us see the full picture of price action. As per my Elliott Wave count, we are in the final wave (5) of a major impulse wave of higher degree. This is something we need to take into consideration when establishing profit targets.
What is the profit target for this final wave (5)? Usually, what you want to do is take the Fibonacci extension tool and target the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci extension. As you can see on my chart, I am expecting this wave to finish on the 0.382 fibo (at 2462), but I am also taking into consideration the next 0.618 fibo (at 2567). If you want to place your limit order as a profit target, place it slightly below these levels.
What will happen after we reach my profit target? I will show you in one of my next analyses, so make sure you follow my account! Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas about GOLD. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
D-XAU
Gold AnalysisThe 1-hour zones around 2320.0 and 2328.5 present potential reversal zones, while the 15-minute zones near 2300.0 and 2308.5 also offer reversal opportunities. However, given their proximity, it's advisable not to enter shorts at the top and longs at the bottom simultaneously. Instead, consider longing after the top level is breached and shorting after the bottom level is broken.
Take profit targets for long positions could be around 2343.5, while for short positions, they could be around 2286.5.
GOLD - Price can reach resistance line of channel and start fallHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price declined below $2375 level, which coincided with resistance area, but soon backed up and some time traded near.
Later, Gold made downward impulse to support level, breaking $2375 level, after which price bounced up and started to fall in channel.
In channel, XAU reached resistance line and then in a short time declined to support area, but soon rose back, making fake breakout.
Next, Gold some time traded between $2300 level, and a not long time ago it bounced up from support area and now continues to grow.
In my mind, Gold can reach resistance line and then bounce down to almost $2275 support line of channel, breaking support level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
The Value of an Unbiased BiasHi everyone,
In this video I would like to discuss the value of having an unbiased bias when it comes to your analysis. It’s a dry subject with only a little chart illustrating near the end, but the boring stuff usually tends to be the most important topics when it comes to making it in this industry.
I think most of us are familiar with the word ‘bias’. For those that aren’t, basically, in the context of trading, all it means is being in favour of the market moving either to the upside or downside. Your bias comes by means of your analysis and can be related to any timeframe. For example, I could have a bullish bias on a higher timeframe monthly chart, and a bearish bias for the lower timeframe daily chart.
Now, you don’t HAVE to always have a bias. If you don’t know, then you simple don’t know, and there is nothing wrong with that, it would be unreasonable and nonsensical to think otherwise. But, sometimes your bias is wrong, which leads me to the topic of this video.
I believe even for traders who don’t know how to form a technical bias, do so anyway in the form of psychological bias. Most of the time, we think the market is either going up or down, hence why we would even get into a long or short position. The tricky part is being flexible and changing your bias when the market is indicating you are clearly wrong.
Smart Money knows how we think, and they know how to create sentiment in the marketplace. This is why its crucial to be able to change your bias on a dime, WHEN it is applicable, WHEN your analysis is showing you, and NOT for any other reason. The later you are to the party, the less pips you can catch, and the less likely your trades will win.
As humans, we tend to cling to our beliefs. We block out any evidence indicating that we may be wrong about them. And when the market is showing us that we may be wrong, we just tell ourselves “Well now the market is offering me more pips, I have to get in on this move!”, hence one reason how you get long or short squeezes.
- R2F
XAUUSD 5/5/24Gold be in our second pair for this week we have a bearish range on the higher timeframe, collectively we know that gold is bullish as a whole but we have formed some bearish structure so we're going to follow that narrative and you can see by our markup we have three areas to watch, Based on this I am looking at the range that we established last week on the lower time frame this giving us our point of reference for what move is most likely. you can see the two points I have highlighted with our black lines showing you the high and the low, i'm looking for this range to be broken out either to the upside to give us a shift up into the daily order block marked with the red line above or I'm looking for price to breakdown lower for then a push to the upside to have them later on. The main thing to consider here is how price behaves when it gets either to the high or the low of the smaller time frame range we still have possibilities to break out of the range to the upside and then continue down when we meet the higher time frame structural high but if we do not we will look for buys and essentially we will just follow price action as we do every week!
Remember trade what you see trade your plan and always use appropriate risk!
wishing you all the best trading week!
Gold Price Drops following US NFP DataGold prices ( TVC:XAU ) have dwindled following US Nonfarm Payrolls (NBP) data, with the gold price peaked at $2,310 but reversed gains. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that April Nonfarm Payrolls missed estimates, indicating a cooling jobs market. The golden metal edged toward its daily high of $2,310 but failed to crack May 2's high of $2,326, exacerbating a retracement to current spot prices. The XAU/USD trades at around $2,300, virtually unchanged, down by 0.02%. Wall Street's optimistic mood weighs on the safe-haven appeal of the non-yielding metal.
US Treasury yields are sliding, with the 10-year benchmark note down seven basis points. US real yields, which correlate inversely with Gold prices, fell six and a half basis points from 2.219% to 2.146%. A Goldilocks scenario looms for the US following the US NFP report as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that business activity in the services sector contracted for the first time since December 2022. Fed Governor Bowman was hawkish in an interview with Bloomberg Television, saying that she is willing to hike rates if inflation stalls or reverses.
Gold prices remain underpinned by lower US Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar. The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding 4.506%, down seven basis points from its opening level. The ISM April Services PMI fell below the critical 50.0 mark, indicating contraction, with a reading of 49.4, lower than expected and below the figure for March.
Fed rate cut probabilities increased after the data release, with traders expecting 38 basis points of rate cuts toward the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's first-rate cut is seen in September, with odds standing at 87% for a 0.25% rate cut. The fed funds rate would finish the year at the 4.75%-5.00% range.
Stock market weakness affects goldGold retreated over $100 from its all-time highs established earlier this month. Interestingly, this move down follows a pullback of similar magnitude in the U.S. stock market, which we have repeatedly referred to as a threat to gold’s spectacular performance; one minor detail to point out here is that this time around, gold seems to be falling in reaction to what has been happening in the stock market, unlike in previous corrections throughout 2023 and 2024, when gold either preceded weakness in stocks or did not react to it. But now, the stock market appears to be at a critical point of either breaking down or staging a recovery, with many big names reporting their earnings this week, which can help to achieve one of these objectives. If corporate results do not meet investors’ expectations and, by any chance, there are significant downgrades to future guidance along with announcements of new layoffs, then it is unlikely the situation will calm investors’ nerves and lead to recovery. Contrarily, it is more likely to produce more fear among market participants, which could inadvertently lead to more selling in the stock market, accompanied by weakness in gold.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily graph of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. The area between $2,000 and $2,075 acts as an important base in the case of a strong stock market selloff.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 depicts XAUUSD’s RSI on the weekly timeframe. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover, a worrisome sign for gold. The same crossover can also be observed on the daily chart; besides that, Stochastic and MACD also reversed to the downside.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling with bearish signs)
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAU/USD Analysis: Potential Short Opportunity AheadTraders,
Here's a breakdown of the current situation:
Daily Chart: Despite a bullish channel, recent candles show signs of weakness, warranting caution.
4-Hour Chart: The trendline has been breached, and a reversal to this broken level is underway, indicating a potential shift in momentum.
Intraday: A pivotal point coincides with previous significant zones, providing an opportune moment for short positions.
Consider initiating short positions either immediately or after confirmation signals.
Best regards,
XAUUSD - Long Signal $2300/ozGold is beginning to trend downward as the dollar shows a slight uptick in strength at the outset of the EUR/LON session. While the dollar index remains within the range of 105 to 106, a breakthrough above 106.100 or 106.200 could signal further gains for the USD in the upcoming wave.
However, it's worth noting that we've been witnessing high timeframe consolidation for some time now. Personally, I'm eager for a significant uptrend in gold (XAU) before any subsequent strengthening of the dollar prompts a downward correction once more. The $2300 mark stands as a notable point of convergence in this scenario.
GOLD Bearish Flag! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is trading in a local
Downtrend and the price
Has formed a bearish
Flag pattern and we are
Already seeing a bearish
Breakout so we are
Bearish biased and we
Will be expecting
A further move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
GOLD's Trajectory: Factors Influencing Its Price MovementFollowing our previous analysis (links provided in the description below), gold continues its upward trajectory, in line with the prevailing trend since the beginning of the year. The recent pullback to the $2295 area appears to have attracted buyers seeking a discounted price, fueling the impressive momentum of this metal. After a brief consolidation period between Thursday and Friday, a bullish breakout occurred, and Friday night saw the price retesting the previous area with another pullback before resuming its ascent.
From a technical perspective, the price has reached the 50% retracement level from the last swing, coinciding with the 38.2% retracement from the previous bottom low. We anticipate a new bullish impulse if Monday brings fresh signals of growth.
In terms of fundamental analysis, investors are looking past the weaker US GDP print, as there is growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates due to persistent inflationary pressures. This has revived demand for the US Dollar (USD), while a generally positive sentiment in equity markets has further dampened interest in safe-haven assets like gold. Seasonality analysis also suggests that the price may continue to climb over the next month.
However, the downside for gold remains supported as USD bulls may await further cues regarding the Fed's rate-cutting trajectory before making new commitments. Therefore, attention is focused on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, as this crucial inflation data will heavily influence the Fed's future policy decisions and consequently drive USD demand, shaping the next directional move for gold.
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GOLD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Price reversal going up, levels for BUY . GOLD long
! Great BUY opportunity GOLD / XAU
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗
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HTF Markup 29-3 May 2024 W18- XAU, DXY, GBP, JPY, AUD, NAS, BTCThis is a Weekly post for several pairs showing HTF Markup only using Smart Money Concept (SMC) on Weekly, Daily and 4H Time Frames.
Feedback will be highly appreciated.
U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY
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Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar OANDA:XAUUSD
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British Pound / U.S. Dollar FX:GBPUSD
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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen FOREXCOM:USDJPY
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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar FOREXCOM:AUDUSD
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US Nas 100 OANDA:NAS100USD
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Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD
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Gold Analysis: Key ZonesTraders,
In our assessment of gold, we've identified crucial zones that warrant close attention:
Strong Reaction Zones: Anticipate significant market reactions at these levels.
Initial Take Profit (TP): The first TP may represent a relatively weaker point.
Trend Change Potential: Breaking above the top zone or below the lower zone has the potential to alter the prevailing trend, transforming supports into resistances and vice versa.
Keep a watchful eye on these zones as they could play a pivotal role in shaping market movements and trade decisions.
Best regards,
Gold Market Analysis: Retracement Signals and Scalping ProspectsGold experienced a significant retreat upon reaching the upper boundary of its channel, approximately at the value of 2333.35. Currently, the price has faced resistance and subsequently retreated from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential pullback towards the upper bounds of the channel. In response to these developments, we are actively evaluating potential scalping opportunities within this market context.
However, traders may opt to exercise patience, awaiting additional cues to confirm the conclusion of the corrective decline from the all-time peak, before positioning themselves for potential further gains.
Gold can make correction and then continue to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Observing the chart, we can see that the price some time ago rebounded from the support line, which coincided with the 2305 support level and buyer zone and started to rise to the 2380 resistance level. When the price reached the 2380 level, it soon broke it and rose to the resistance line, but then Gold turned around and made an impulse down almost to the support line, breaking the resistance level again. Later, the price in a short time rose to the seller zone, some time traded inside, and then made the correction below. After this, Gold rebounded up to 2415 points, thereby breaking the resistance level and line, but after this, XAU turned around and started to decline inside the downward pennant. Inside the pennant, the price broke the 2380 level one more time and fell to the support line of this pattern, which coincided with the buyer zone. Then price bounced from this line and in a short time rose higher than the 2305 level, making a fake breakout and even recently price exited from the pennant and now trades close to the resistance line. In my opinion, Gold can make corrections to this line and then rebound up. For this case, I set my target at the 2360 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Sell XAUUSD Bearish PennantThe XAU/USD pair (spot gold) on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to the presence of a bearish flag pattern following a strong downward move.
Potential Short Trade :
Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support trendline of the flag after confirmation. Ideally, this would be around 2330 or lower if the price continues to decline.
Target Levels:
2272: This represents the height of the flag, measured from the flagpole (initial downtrend) to the top of the flag, projected downwards from the breakout point.
2240: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the flagpole.
Stop-Loss: Once the entry point is confirmed, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the flag, ideally with some buffer around 2340. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.