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BTC has upside chances until it holds above 81K areaMorning folks, So, picture barely has changes since our last discussion. Right now we do not see any ready-to-trade setups. But suggest some bullish support to the market. After major XOP target has been reached - BTC has not dropped but remains in tight consolidation. This is more a bullish sign. In general, we could suggest here a kind of reverse H&S shape. It makes us think that until BTC price is above ~ 81K area, it keeps chances on upside breakout. Drop below 81K will lead BTC back to the previous lows. So, if you would like to buy - try to do this as closer to the lows of consolidation as possible. We consider no shorts by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
87-88K seems natural targetMorning folks, So, our 80-85K trade was nice. Now we think that it is not time for big trades, mostly because many markets, and especially US bonds and dollar are overextended. That's why for a few sessions we're focused on near standing targets. BTC daily chart shows strong resistance around 87-89K area, which is also might be the neckline of potential reverse H&S. We already talked about this previously. It is the 2nd reason why it would be better to focus on something close. Thus, on 1H chart setup might be looking like you see on the chart. We hope that 83K support will hold. Otherwise, this trade has no sense, because stop placement below 81K support makes risk/reward ratio unattractive. Thus, supposedly 87-88K is an upside target. And we hope that BTC will stay above 83K.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
3
80K pullback is done, but it is not for selling anymoreMorning folks, So, the upside bounce to 80K resistance that we were watching is done now. It has happened even twice. D. Trump so efficiently tarrifying markets, and them provides them the relief that BTC mostly is just a hostage of this so called "news stream". Actually as well as all other markets. Once 90 day tariffs postpone has been provided, stocks jumped and liquidity returns, supporting all other things around. It might be temporal? Sure. But nobody knows what in the old Donny's head. By looking at current action, it seems that 80K support is more reasonable to use for long entry with 85.5 target at least. Definitely it would be better to not sell by far...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
XAUUSD big fall incoming? OANDA:XAUUSD The price has gone crazy today. I haven't seen a daily candle like this in a long time. I will be looking to short the market, since I still stand with the statement that on Trumps' tariffs plan, and we can also see a supply zone on a daily timeframe, although I've heard that the federal reserve will cut rates, meaning bearish TVC:DXY therefore bullish for OANDA:XAUUSD . There is also an FOMC meeting today, so I will keep an eye on the decision and change of policies. Anyone short? Any thoughts?
FX:XAUUSDShort
by KlemenIvanusic
Pullback to 80KMorning folks, So, our long-term bearish journey that we were following for 4-5 weeks comes to an end. BTC more or less hit our 74K target and strong weekly support area . The next one stands around 69K, but market strongly needs a new driving factor to break ~70K support area, and hardly this will happen this week. Taking in consideration that market is oversold, now we set a tactical target- pullback to 80K resistance area , and then we will see, should be sell again or not.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
86K for another short sellMorning folks, So, not occasionally we said in previous 2-3 updates that BTC action doesn't look bullish and we suggest a new nosedive. Now we have bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart . And consider these two Fib levels for another short entry attempt. Of course, 86K would be just perfect, but it could start earlier. One of the possible shapes we consider a downside butterfly. In general, re-test of 70-73K area on average fits to our long-term view. In a case if 86K will be broken, it could mean that market is tending to 93.5K target, based on daily AB=CD pattern . But we consider this scenario as less probable due on overall BTC heavy performance in a recent few weeks. Thus, for now, if you want to make a scalp long trade, you could try, but better to set initial target not higher than 86K. Our major scenario is bearish and we consider 84K and 86K Fib levels for accumulation of a bearish position, unless something extraordinary will happen. Profit to everybody, Peace.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC DAILY - MA compression On the daily timeframe something very interesting is happening. A convergence of price around the blue KEY S/R is very interesting when you factor in what the moving averages are doing around this level also. 1D 200 EMA is completely flat having lost all of its momentum with the months of chop and then the sell-off into current levels. For a bullrun to be credible you want to see price above this level and a steady/steep slope up. Due to the lack of direction of this moving average price is able to climb above and drop below very easily and therefor it is neither support nor resistance until there is a trend. 1D 25 EMA is a different story, now that BTC has put in a local top and trending down, the 25 EMA is resistance but has been flipped in the last few days with price bouncing off the level 4 days in a row. This is good news for the bulls but the longer we linger here there is more chance dropping back under it. Diagonal resistance as simple as it is has 4 points of contact and will be a big point of resistance and one many traders will be keeping an eye on. On the lower timeframes we're seeing a bullish channel, a loss of this channel would be a huge red flag and a catalyst for a risk off event IMO, continuing the downtrend.
by ProR35
4
90-91K Short setup updateMorning folks, So, today we need just 1H chart as not many events happened. In a recent two weeks people start making upside revisions on BTC price, based on recent JPow comments on QT contraction. We agree that it has some reasons and supportive to BTC, but they forget that GDP forecast was cut, while inflation increased, which points on stagflation signs. This is the reason why we do not want to overestimate the positive effect of QT contraction. We still think that BTC could show the pullback to ~70K area. Now we have three different patterns that point on this level. Since our last update we've got the flag consolidation, that suggests upside continuation. AB-CD based pattern also point on 90-91K area. So, we still keep our idea to consider shorts around 90-91K area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
LRC: BULLISH divergence on daily chartBullish Divergence Confirmed: Both the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are showing bullish divergence on the daily chart. While the price has made a lower low, the RSI and MACD have formed higher lows, indicating weakening downward momentum and a potential trend reversal. Low Market Cap Potential: Given the coin’s low market capitalization, it has the potential for significant price appreciation if buying momentum accelerates, as low-cap assets are often more volatile and responsive to positive sentiment. As always, monitor the trade closely and adjust your strategy as needed based on market conditions.
Long
by saazaan
88K is not excluded but not granted as wellMorning folks, So, we set for 85K sell and it worked. Downside reaction happened, but still, we call you to move stops to breakeven for some case. The problem that we see is the market behavior. We see it not natural for normal bearish market. BTC stands stubbornly around K-resistance, not showing normal downside extension. Our scenario of downside continuation from ~85K area is not broken yet, it is valid, and maybe everything will happen as we've suggested initially. But we see the risk in the way of market behavior. It could lead to more extended upside bounce in the way of upside AB=CD pattern right to 88k resistance . It means that if you already have bearish positions - move stops to breakeven. If you don't - do not take the new once for awhile. Or, at least, you could take but not more than 25-30% of your normal lot. Our bearish scenario remains valid until market stands under 85.1K spike (because this is bearish reversal session on daily chart) and below 85.5K resistance in general. Upside breakout means an action to 88K. Since we do not have the breakout it, I mark our update as "bearish", but we warned you... Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Selling?Morning folks, So, Monday's plan has worked perfect, we're at 85K. Today we have to keep an eye on daily chart, where bearish grabber pattern might be formed and trigger downside action. In general upside action is rather slow, so bearish context stands intact. We see only one risk for it - non-market driving factors, such as a D. Trump flood on X. But, this is out of our control. That's why we keep everything as it is - 85K is considered for short entry. If we get daily bearish grabber also - all the better. Next target stands around 74K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
UK Budget Forecasts and GDP Data Set to Shape Pound’s Next MoveThe pound hovered around $1.29, staying near a four-month high as dollar weakness persisted amid U.S. economic concerns and tariff risks. Sterling remained supported by expectations that UK interest rates will stay high, with traders adjusting BoE rate cut forecasts to 52 bps for 2025. Investors now await January GDP data for economic insights, while the UK’s budget watchdog will release updated economic and borrowing forecasts on March 26, potentially influencing market sentiment. If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2920, the next resistance levels are 1.2980 and 1.3050. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2760 and 1.2660 if selling pressure increases.
by ChartMage
Pullback to 85K for sellingMorning folks, So, everything goes with the plan - nothing to change on major picture. We keep our bearish view on BTC and now consider 68-74K area as the next destination point. But this could take a few weeks. In fact, previous 68K top also will be a big test. Downside break will open road to 52-55K. While if BTC will be able to stay in 70-80K range, it will keep long term bullish context. It should be interesting... Meantime, BTC once again hits oversold areas as on weekly as on daily charts. As we promised - D. Trump verbal boost lasted just 2 days and was reversed down. We see some intention market manipulations from D. Trump administration but this is not the subject for this update. In short-term - 2-3 days BTC needs to relief oversold pressure, so minor bounce is quite possible. For example, based on "222" pattern on 1H chart we could see attempt to bounce up from 79K and up to 84-85K area. Those who wants to sell - that might be the chance. For now I mark this update as bullish, because of suggested bounce. But our longer term view remains bearish still.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Yen Benefits from Dollar's Broad RetreatThe Japanese yen held around 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from the dollar’s decline on a stronger euro and Trump’s tariff policies. His selective tariff exemptions and retaliatory measures weakened the dollar further. Domestically, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida suggested possible rate hikes if economic projections align but emphasized that Japan’s monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with only minimal reductions in government bond holdings. Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 147.10, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
by ChartMage
Bearish until 98-100K Morning folks, So, Old Donny euphoria was over on the next day, as we've suggested. ETH was even worse than BTC... And we're skeptic on coming Crypto Summit tomorrow. What could happen in three days? A lot of speech and empty promises definitely will sound, but where the real deals? Recently. S. Lummis said that BTC Reserve issue is still under question and no guarantees that it will be formed. That's it... Nothing is prepared for BTC Reserve forming. Coming D. Trump talks could shake the market, but that will be only emotions. Speaking practically, we suggest that until BTC stands under 98-100K area - context remains bearish. We see a few patterns, and this butterfly one of them. If you want to go short - this is the point that you have to think about. Based on the butterfly, the risk is not too big. If even we will get "222" Sell - setup remains bearish, because upside AB=CD agrees with daily Fib resistance level. Only upside breakout of 98-99K will give BTC theoretical chances to start wobbling in 100-108K range. Thus, for now we're not ready to speak about BTC buying. Albeit you want to make a bet on Summing euphoria tomorrow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Verbal intervention was great but what's on the back?Morning folks, So, the pullback that we were waiting for is done. Although we thought that it will be driven by some natural forces and reasons. The way how it has happened and by what factors make us to be caution on its perspectives. Indeed, it was just verbal intervention from D. Trump. It had bad week - scandal in White House with Zelensky, stocks are falling, crypto are falling, inflation expectations are raising, March debt ceil and shutdown is almost here, EU "allies" do not want to work together... So, to say couple of words and pump the market is not a bad idea at all. But, what is on the back? Nothing. Special Committee will make Reserve report only by July. I'm sure on crypto Summit this week we also will hear a lot of bravery speeches, but this is just words. This is a reason why we do not want to buy BTC now and prefer to watch for reversal signs around our resistance 96-97K area. Sooner or later but fundamentals should return control over the market. I do not have yet the specific picture but, since we have strong upside momentum - it should fade and appearing, say H&S or butterfly pattern, together with completion upside XOP target seems as great combination. Once this patterns will be formed, we could try to use it for short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
70K doesn't look impossible nowMorning folks, So, our trading plan worked just great - DRPO on weekly in fact hit 81-82K, so it's minimal target is done. In fact, BTC, as a Gold now are victims of massive sell-off on stock market. Investors meet margin calls and urgently need cash to fill it back to initial level. That's why they sell everything that they could to get the money. While this process will be underway - BTC remains under pressure. Not occasionally as insiders as Buffett were sitting on cash bags. Today BTC is oversold. So we do not consider any new shorts and prefer to get the rally to sell into. Supposedly 92.50-92.85 resistance looks interesting for this. As market probably will close below Dec lows, this is bad for long-term picture and former 70K top might be re-tested in perspective of a few weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
2