Daily Charts
Up right now?Morning folks,
So, today we take a look at daily chart finally. Last time we've discussed upside bounce that should become the right arm of H&S pattern on 1H chart. Indeed, upside bounce has happened, and it seems that it has become the arm of H&S, but there are few nuances...
H&S on 1H chart stands too distorted and skewed to the upside. And we do not want to rely on it. Recent price performance also doesn't match to idea of bearish pattern.
On daily chart we've got tweezer bottom and obvious pennant pattern under 3/8 resistance - two bullish signs. So, we do not exclude that upside action could continue. We keep our nearest target at the same 45K area. So, it seems that our reverse H&S pattern, that we're considering for last 2 weeks - might be in action already
EURJPY BUY IDEAFX:EURJPY
The weekly, daily are overall bullish; On the 1h price managed to break its bearish structure at the daily low pushing up and breaking above the 1h key support/resistance level and price making a retest as support the 1h key support/resistance area/zone. Entry is based on the 1h bullish engulfing candlestick at the 1h key support/resistance area/zone
Some practical issuesMorning folks,
This post should be considered as practical add-on to our major upside scenario. Now we consider reverse H&S pattern on 4H chart. Market has reshaped it a bit, so we haven't got desirable retracement yet (i.e. right arm is not formed yet).
But, it could be soon. On 1H chart you could see potential downside H&S. BUt the problem is - the 4H arm should be (or could be) around 41.5K, while the target of 1H pattern suggests lower levels.
At the same time, you could see that on 41.5K we have very strong support area - this is downside XOP (1.618 AB-CD target) and K-support area.
That's why we consider this area as suitable for long entry. If even later market will form 1H HS& and keep going lower - at first touch we should get the bounce with high degree of probability. Because right arm here has to be formed as well. This makes attempt to go long here relatively safe and with ability to place very tight stop.
Everything will be even better if BTC starts upward action right from here...
EURUSD Short Trade 24-01-29: Trade Signal EURUSD Short Trade
24-01-29
*Trade Price Levels*
1. Risk Entry (Pending Order)
Pending Order Price : 1.08700
Stop Loss Price : 1.09100
Take Profit : 1.08100
Risk to Reward Potential
-1 units of risk for 1.5 units of gain
-Note: Needs a win rate or 41% or above to be a profitable trader
-Will Track Feb Signal Win Rate
A. Will track risk entry win rate and confirmation entry model win rate
B. Based on data that will determine risk profile for Prop Firm Funding (More Aggressive Risk Profile)
Cons For Trade
A. Price is in the discount of the swing range
(should sell from premium and long from discount)
B. Price could use the demand zone from the daily to drive (hawkish) Price through zone above making higher highs and lower lows
C. Price broke key price level of 1.0800 (more neutral)
Pros
A. Double zone supply zone coverage with stop loss being big enough to let the trade breathe a bit
B. The first Mitigation of a zone often fails leading to price moving up and then going deeping (bearish) towards the strong swing structure below
C. The overall trend is more bearish than bullish
Fundamental Drivers
A. Price Broke 7 week low of 1.0800
B. Central Bank rates remained unchanged
C. President Lagarde is more dovish than hawkish
Short term correction on btcusd.Does the macd indicate weakness of the short-term correction, is the decline over? A rise now could also bring the price above 49k USD, but tomorrow's FED meeting will affect the direction of the price in the short term, so we have to wait to understand just how many cuts they will make on interest rates this year. Once this event has passed, I hypothesize a resumption of the upward trend in the price in the coming weeks, barring sensational events that could change the ongoing scenarios. This is not in question for now.
First is done. Here is the 2nd oneMorning folks,
So, our 3-Drive and H&S pattern that we've discussed have completed. But, as we consider 45K level as major target for this trading setup - we expect continuation.
Meantime, market hits 42.6K target and 3/8 Fib resistance on daily chart. It needs some tactical pullback. We suggest that 41-41.2K support is the most probable area.
Then, if everything remains the same, upside action should continue with larger scale H&S pattern on 4H chart. But, the pullback is our first step.
I mark setup as bearish, but only because of expected pullback. In general we have bullish view in short-term.
24-01-26 EURUSD Long Entry - Trade Management 24-01-26
EURUSD Long Entry
Trade Management Price Levels
A. Move Stop loss to a take profit support level on a lower time frame
Price: 1.08450
Locked In Risk to reward:
+ 0.25 % Going to the weekend
* Left a bit of breathing room for spreads for sunday opening and to cover my risk if any large news happens this weekend *
Signal Price Info
Entry Price: 1.08350
Stop Loss Price : 1.07950/ 40 Pips
Take Profit: 1.08950/ 60 Pips
Risk To Reward : 1 for 1.5
Trade Grade: A-
Target is 45K Morning folks,
So, BTC was not strong enough to form H&S and just collapsed lower. Now finally we get patterns that could become a starting point for pullback.
Here is 4H 3-Drive Buy pattern that has minor reverse H&S on the bottom. We suggest that it is possible to consider long position because now it is accompanied with reasonable risk.
We see 45K level as target. Stop should be placed under the lows of 3-Drive, but if it is too much to you - stick with reverse H&S on 1H chart. In this case stop could placed somewhere around 39K.
This should be relatively safe trade, because market is oversold on daily chart as well...
AUDUSD: Daily Long Signal tagged In on 24-01-23 : UPDATEAUDUSD: Daily Long Signal - 24-01-18
Tagged In on 24-01-23
Entry Price: 0.65700
Take Profit: 0.66780 125 PIP gain
Stop Loss: 0.65100 50 PIP Stop Loss
Risk To Reward: 1 % For a 2.0 % Return
-Placed Pending order and tag into the trade
Trade Management
- Steps if you taken the trade
A. Place Take Profit at
* 0.66555 * Risk To Reward is 1 % for 1.5%
B. Place Stop Loss at
* 0.65055 *
* Max risk of Capital * 1 % MAX ... I Suggest 0.25% due to taking a random guys trade signals
C. Wait Patiently and FULLY ACCEPT THE RISK
Winner Free Signal - Long Trade GBPUSD 4H Trade Entry Winning Signal
Results of Trade Idea
Long Signal Trade
Jan 17th 2024
Results
A.1 Set-up On the 4h chart
Entry Price: 1.26350
Stop Loss: 1.25850
Take Profit: 1.27200
General Take Profit Trade Management
Called 1:2 Risk to Reward on Jan 17th
Hit Take Profit:
Jan 23rd 2024
EURUSD - Update Jan 23rd #1 Short Trade Update Jan 23rd
#1 Short Playbook 4H C.3
No Huge Fundamental News
Trade Data: Entry
Entry Price: 1.08842
Exit Take Profit: 1.08162 or 68 Pips
Stop Loss: 1.09242 or 40 Pips
Trade Management
Step 1: Reduce Risk
Once a old low was broken I moved my stop loss to follow the trend.
Reduced Price: 1.09192
Pips : 5 PIPS
Percentage Reduced: 0.05
Open Risk On trade from original: 0.95 %
Take Profit 1:
Take Profit: 1.08826 / Breakeven
Percentage Gain: Trade at breakeven locked in with a stop loss in place
*See Previous Analysis for more trade data*
1. Currently price is moving down with momentum and I am waiting for a higher Probability Trade Entry Scale In or to move my Take Profit for more percentage gain on trade once the lows are broken
2. Waiting for the price action to show its hand.
XAU/USD 22 Jan 2024 Daily Analysis-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish
-> Has reached EQ.
Price pulled back following bearish iBOS and is reacting to 50% EQ of the internal structure marked in green and daily demand zone.
Price is currently trading within internal high and fractal low.
Expectation: Price to target weak internal low. Current demand zone to be respected.
In the event price continues to trade bullish the likely scenario is for price to trade up to strong internal high before continuing bearish internal order flow.
Detail of our major bearish patternMorning folks,
This update is better to watch with the previous one, so you better understand what we're talking about...
So, BTC has slipped a bit lower. This is not yet the action that we've discussed in our previous scenario. With this downside action now the H&S pattern on 4H chart starts looking even better.
Today we consider upside background that is a part of our bigger bearish H&S on 4H chart. Since market is coiling around the neckline, chances stand high that the right shoulder of 44.25$ area could start forming.
On 1H chart now we see completed downside butterfly. Price is forming "222" Buy as well, divergence has appeared as well. So, if our suggestion is correct, BTC could start forming the right arm of bigger pattern and start moving out from the neckline.
Scalp traders could consider long position based on all this stuff. At least it cares very small potential risk, so, this is something to think about. We're mostly focused on big pattern.
Potentially, we could get reverse H&S here, so, we should get another chance for scalp long position later. So, let's keep watching.