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XAUUSD Daily breakdownPost FOMC and unemployment claims has finally given us the high volatility we've been waiting for. We saw price test 1980 before falling 40$ and closing below 1954 which was a strong level of resistance. As far as the daily timeframe is concerned, we are in an area of indecision which means we could reject any support or resistance here at any level and just range like we did on the 24th May until the 20th June. Alternatively, the market picks a direction and pushes straight through. What will be the catalyst for it? Well, We have PCE tomorrow (what people call the FED's favourite inflation indicator) and NFP next week. This is the perfect set-up for a push down. Why down? Main reason is the weekly candle has flipped from being strong bullish to bearish. That is significant for price action, and all it takes from here is another $30 drop in price on Friday and Monday for the monthly candle to close bearish after testing the 1980 level, which for me would be the most obvious indicator that we will be visiting the low 1800's. Thursday 27th was a great day for trading with 3 trades based on levels posted, and it was all from being patient. As always, be patient, wait for the market to tell you what it is most likely to do next, and then act. Feel free to request any charts in the comments below and let me know what you think!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FriesianFX
Fed reaction is weakMorning folks, So, first dive has happened. While all other markets - FX, Gold, Stocks show positive reaction on Fed statement - BTC can't support the major trend. This is indirect sign of weakness. Now price mostly is supported by 4H K-support area that you could see in our previous update. We do not see any reasons to take off the table our 28-28.5K target by far. To change the view we need stronger bullish context, reversal patterns that we do not have now. Thus, let's see what will happen around 29.8K resistance area. Supposedly it might be interesting for another short entry. In a case of upside breakout, most probable destination point is 30.3K and context could start changing...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
XAUUSD Daily updateWell, our analysis 24 hours ago was spot on with price action replicating what we had said regarding a dip down before a test on the 1970 level, with a high probability of price continuing to 1980 if we can close above the 1970 level. This was an important level because its prior support and resistance being retested after a leg down, a bottom wick had been created for the 4h candle which was the liquidity grab needed. From here we can expect price to close bullish on the weekly timeframe, however we still have 2 trading days left so lets see how tomorrows candle closes now that FOMC is out of the way.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FriesianFX
XAUUSD Gold daily analysisVery interesting day when it comes to price action. We saw price close below the resistance yesterday and into the area of indecision, however today we not only broke yesterdays low but closed back above the range and above yesterdays open. Why is this significant? Simple answer: It isn't. Yet. I say this because we have FOMC rate announcement tomorrow. Of course, the market has priced in a 0.25 bps hike, however that will still be enough of an announcement to provide volatility to allow price to pick it's next move. Now that we have grabbed liquidity (and created a bottom wick for the daily candle from Tuesday 18th July last week) I would expect the next leg up to begin. With that being said, I will not be taking any long term trades ahead of the announcement tomorrow. It is always risky and no matter what happens in the first hour, there will be more moves to come.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FriesianFX
Just waitingMorning folks, Situation is changing slowly here. Recent news of re-filling of big whales ETF registration with the SEC mostly have been ignored, as we do not see any inspiring action here. It means that overall technical picture has not changed too much. Our major bearish patterns are still in place - daily bearish engulfing, weekly bearish grabber. Markets looks heavy by far and shows inability to break through resistance. This makes us keep our trading plan and consider scenario with downside AB-CD, somewhere to 28-28.5K area. Later we could say this with more precision. By this reason we do not consider long positions now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️GOLD 👉1D🔻 1913 / 1896 🟡Hey there, buddy! So, let's talk about what's been happening in the daily timeframe. Since early March, we've seen the price facing some buying pressure around the 1809 support level. It managed to break through the important resistance level at 1892 and even the price structure, which led to a nice little rally. It reached a fresh high around 2081, which was pretty exciting! But, The price has been going through a correction phase for about a month, bouncing between the price range of 1984 and 1935. Now, here's a possible scenario to consider: if the price drops below the 1935 support level and holds steady there, there's a good chance we might see further correction toward the support levels at 1913 and 1890. We'll have to keep an eye on how the price reacts to those levels to get a better sense of the next move. Now, if things go as planned, we could see some positive price action and a nice upward trend coming from those support levels. But if the price manages to hold above the 1935 support level, we might be looking at a range-bound trend with some partial positive swings. Oh, and don't forget the important resistance levels in the daily timeframe, which are around 1965 and 1984. Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend! ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! 🙏✌️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by SasanSeifi
4
Downside scenario is still validMorning folks, I've prepared but forgot to place update yesterday... So, as we've mentioned in recent two weeks, BTC seems has not enough power to proceed upward action immediately. Recent reactions, and inability to join other markets with CPI rally tells, that downside pullback scenario still stands on the table. Last time we've discussed perfect engulfing pattern on daily chart, and possible downside AB-CD, based on it. Target is the same around 28-28.5K area which is the support on 4H chart. Now, on 1H chart we see that upside bounce, based on H&S is over (yesterday it was still in progress), and we consider 2nd leg of extension down. Theoretical chances exist that BTC could try to touch 5/8 resistance first, showing more extended upside bounce, before downside leg starts, but right now we do not see sighs of it, because H&S is done. If even this will happen, I mean 5/8 bounce, it doesn't change the core of scenario with large AB-CD downside pattern, but, just will change slightly the starting point.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️ADA/USDT👉1D 0.32 / 0.34 Hey there!✌ ◼In the daily timeframe, as you can see, the price is still moving between the range of 0.26 and 0.30 and remains within a consolidation phase. The scenario to consider in the daily timeframe is as follows: after the price range, if the price establishes itself above the resistance level, there is a potential for further price growth towards the supply zone at 0.32 and the resistance level at 0.35, potentially forming a new high above the previous high of 0.30.💹 For a positive trend in the medium term, it is crucial to observe the price's ability to sustain above the resistance level at 0.30. Otherwise, if the price fails to sustain and confirms lower in lower timeframes, we may once again face a correction towards the support zone at 0.26 and 0.25. In the case of a correction, for a better understanding of the continuation of the price movement, it is important to see how the price reacts to the support levels.💹 🔹Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. 🔹Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ 🔶Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! 🙌
by SasanSeifi
weak CPI reactionMorning folks, Today it is mostly sentiment analysis rather than technical one - because you will not find any more or less clear patterns on 4H chart now. But, what is really interesting - weak CPI reaction. Take a look at gold, at FX market and compares to BTC. Something is wrong here with the mood. ETF driver has exhausted, and market needs the new one, but doesn't exist by far. That's why we do not see reasons yet, to cancel our previous view that BTC could show deeper retracement, supposedly to 4H K-support area around 28.5-28.8K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
More bearish signs appearMorning folks, So, the ping-pong action that we've discussed last time is under way, but, Friday's performance was dramatic and shows weakness. BTC was not able to proceed higher, forming huge reversal bar on daily chart and bearish grabber on weekly. Although they coul have serious consequences, but for now we do not talk about breaking the tendency or something of this kind. Nearest support stands around 28K, so this should be frist target of potentially deeper retracement. Still, as price still stands inside our range - let's get first the touch of the lower border. And then see what will happen. We do not consider any new long positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
IndecisionMorning everybody, So, first euphoria around BlackRock's ETF starts to fade and market immediately turns to indecision performance. Although our last time scenario has been completed accurately and BTC has re-tested the top, it was not able to proceed higher and continue major upside tendency. This makes us think that some time it could spend in flat, which is best scenario. But we also do not exclude more extended down, to 28.5K major support area. As usually we do with the range - depending on your preferable direction watch for patterns inside the range, take position closer to opposite borders or use stop entry orders around borders for the case of breakout. Now we do not have any clear patterns.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
31.5 KMorning folks, As you understand all this rally and sentiment is based only on anticipation of BlackRock&Co ETF approvements from the SEC. Thus, recent volatility also has happened due to the same driving factor. SEC said that Fidelity files are inadequate, but later releases commentaries that the file should be changed a bit and re-send. As a result, on daily chart we've got two bullish grabbers, that suggest upward action at least to 31.5K top. Overall performance also suggests the same - market stands in tight pennant consolidation. Intraday performance is very choppy and stable. Usually this happens, when market prepares to challenge the top. Let's see
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Preparing for breakoutMorning folks, BTC keeps positive mood. Technically picture looks bullish. Price is forming tight pennant shape near the top - classical sign of preparation for breakout. But, keep in mind, of this bullish stuff is based only on Blackrock ETF file. The driver for the market is purely external. Just think what will happen, if SEC will deny the file, as it was with Fidelity two years ago... Thus, it is good looking now, but who knows, what will happen tomorrow. Pay attention to risk management. And yes, if everything will be OK with BlackRock and Fidelity files - nearest mid term target is 36-38K
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten