Downside scenario is still validMorning folks,
I've prepared but forgot to place update yesterday... So, as we've mentioned in recent two weeks, BTC seems has not enough power to proceed upward action immediately. Recent reactions, and inability to join other markets with CPI rally tells, that downside pullback scenario still stands on the table.
Last time we've discussed perfect engulfing pattern on daily chart, and possible downside AB-CD, based on it. Target is the same around 28-28.5K area which is the support on 4H chart.
Now, on 1H chart we see that upside bounce, based on H&S is over (yesterday it was still in progress), and we consider 2nd leg of extension down.
Theoretical chances exist that BTC could try to touch 5/8 resistance first, showing more extended upside bounce, before downside leg starts, but right now we do not see sighs of it, because H&S is done. If even this will happen, I mean 5/8 bounce, it doesn't change the core of scenario with large AB-CD downside pattern, but, just will change slightly the starting point.
Daily Charts
USDJPY I Time for a shift🧐Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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SasanSeifi 💁♂️ADA/USDT👉1D 0.32 / 0.34 Hey there!✌
◼In the daily timeframe, as you can see, the price is still moving between the range of 0.26 and 0.30 and remains within a consolidation phase. The scenario to consider in the daily timeframe is as follows: after the price range, if the price establishes itself above the resistance level, there is a potential for further price growth towards the supply zone at 0.32 and the resistance level at 0.35, potentially forming a new high above the previous high of 0.30.💹
For a positive trend in the medium term, it is crucial to observe the price's ability to sustain above the resistance level at 0.30. Otherwise, if the price fails to sustain and confirms lower in lower timeframes, we may once again face a correction towards the support zone at 0.26 and 0.25. In the case of a correction, for a better understanding of the continuation of the price movement, it is important to see how the price reacts to the support levels.💹
🔹Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach.
🔹Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌
❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️
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weak CPI reactionMorning folks,
Today it is mostly sentiment analysis rather than technical one - because you will not find any more or less clear patterns on 4H chart now.
But, what is really interesting - weak CPI reaction. Take a look at gold, at FX market and compares to BTC. Something is wrong here with the mood. ETF driver has exhausted, and market needs the new one, but doesn't exist by far.
That's why we do not see reasons yet, to cancel our previous view that BTC could show deeper retracement, supposedly to 4H K-support area around 28.5-28.8K
More bearish signs appearMorning folks,
So, the ping-pong action that we've discussed last time is under way, but, Friday's performance was dramatic and shows weakness. BTC was not able to proceed higher, forming huge reversal bar on daily chart and bearish grabber on weekly.
Although they coul have serious consequences, but for now we do not talk about breaking the tendency or something of this kind. Nearest support stands around 28K, so this should be frist target of potentially deeper retracement.
Still, as price still stands inside our range - let's get first the touch of the lower border. And then see what will happen. We do not consider any new long positions by far.
IndecisionMorning everybody,
So, first euphoria around BlackRock's ETF starts to fade and market immediately turns to indecision performance. Although our last time scenario has been completed accurately and BTC has re-tested the top, it was not able to proceed higher and continue major upside tendency.
This makes us think that some time it could spend in flat, which is best scenario. But we also do not exclude more extended down, to 28.5K major support area.
As usually we do with the range - depending on your preferable direction watch for patterns inside the range, take position closer to opposite borders or use stop entry orders around borders for the case of breakout. Now we do not have any clear patterns.
31.5 KMorning folks,
As you understand all this rally and sentiment is based only on anticipation of BlackRock&Co ETF approvements from the SEC. Thus, recent volatility also has happened due to the same driving factor.
SEC said that Fidelity files are inadequate, but later releases commentaries that the file should be changed a bit and re-send.
As a result, on daily chart we've got two bullish grabbers, that suggest upward action at least to 31.5K top. Overall performance also suggests the same - market stands in tight pennant consolidation. Intraday performance is very choppy and stable. Usually this happens, when market prepares to challenge the top. Let's see
Preparing for breakoutMorning folks,
BTC keeps positive mood. Technically picture looks bullish. Price is forming tight pennant shape near the top - classical sign of preparation for breakout.
But, keep in mind, of this bullish stuff is based only on Blackrock ETF file. The driver for the market is purely external. Just think what will happen, if SEC will deny the file, as it was with Fidelity two years ago...
Thus, it is good looking now, but who knows, what will happen tomorrow. Pay attention to risk management.
And yes, if everything will be OK with BlackRock and Fidelity files - nearest mid term target is 36-38K
Two things to controlMorning folks,
BlackRock ETF file has made an explosive action in the news and triggered strongest rally on BTC of a last time. Technically this is good sign for the bulls, pointing that BTC starts new extension mode.
Usually you're watching for two things on this stage. First is - market has not changed its mind and erased the rally. Second - strong support areas where you could consider long entry.
For now, 28.30-28.80 looks interesting. Besides BTC was at daily overbought, which makes a bit deeper retracement probable.
EURAUD Update I What to Expect from this PairWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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28-28.5 K pullbackMorning folks,
With SEC problems to put under control Coinbase/Binance, attack on G. Gensler from some Senators and Congressmen and BlackRock bill to register ETF have changed BTC background significantly. If everything will be realised, then it will be absolutely different market in terms of regulation. It will loose freedom but a lot of money will be pour in.
Thus, all this stuff is reflected in price. Market confirms bullish context, but now stands at overbought. So, we expect tactical bounce to 28-28.5 K-support area, and intend to consider it for long entry. Mid term upside target now is around 36-38K area
EURGBP I Next area to short explained Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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27-27.2K is in rangeMorning folks,
BTC, on a background of common euphoria and anticipation of sooner Fed easing and QE has shown nice intraday rally, exceeding the level that we've specified as a target of retracement and potential resistance. Thus, expected bounce happened, but it has appeared to be much stronger.
Now we have bullish reversal swing and a kind of reverse H&S shape. This let's us consider ~ 25.5-26K area support, where potentially right arm's bottom should be formed, for possible entry with bullish scenario.
Nearest target is around 27-27.2K 4H resistance area. Just be aware of strong downside action and breakout of major 5/8 Fib support level around 25K. These two things that we do not want to see when we consider bullish continuation.
DKNG Bearish to 50MANASDAQ:DKNG has been sideways last few weeks. Now its showing weakness.
On daily its an outside bar downside. A bit of stochastics divergence and 20MA starting to turn down. On weekly its a 2D and far from 20 and 50 MAs.
Plan is to enter at low of Friday's candle ($24.39) and take profits at least at $23.
BWA: 6% upward potential to current HH 🐂 Trade Idea: Long - BWA
🔥 Account Risk: 1.00%
📈 Recommended Product: Knockout
🔍 Entry: +/- 48.28
🐿 DCA: No
😫 Stop-Loss: 45.29 (46.67 for aggressive trade)
🎯 Take-Profit #1: 51.05 (50%)
🎯 Take Profit #2: -
🎯 Trail Rest: Yes
🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no matter how good they look. Do not get a victim of FOMO, there is always another trade idea waiting. 🚨🚨🚨
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BorgWarner is in a larger uptrend and currently finished its consolidation to the former HH (higher high), doing a liquidity grab there, and closed yesterday above it’s last LH (lower high) above the consolidation downtrend. We therefore assume that BorgWarner will at least test its current HH from the larger uptrend with possible upward potential from there.
This trade is based on price action alone.
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EURGBP I Trading plan and forecast Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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