EURAUD I Correction completed from recent impulse - LONG Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Daily Charts
Tricky rallyMorning folks,
So, Debt ceil achievement, as any external factor, has brought its own adjustment to technical picture. BTC emotional reaction is understandable, but what will happen, when, say bill will stuck in Congress or Senate? In both Houses we have very fragile majority of Rep and Dems correspondingly. But, most interesting - what will happen to BTC (stocks and other markets) when US Treasury will come on stage and start sucking all liquidity that it could?
So, I wouldn't overestimate recent BTC reaction. Still, in short-term, 29K XOP target could be reached. We do not consider new shorts by far, waiting when upside momentum will exhaust.
Around 29 K resistance we get big "222" Sell pattern. And It takes bulls awhile, how it would be better to buy. From risk/reward ratio, it makes sense to take position only if you could enter/place stop not lower than 27K, because target is just 1K above the market.
Fragile backgroundMorning folks,
So, BTC confirms our suggestion of weakness and slipped a bit lower. It is big temptation to think about possible upside reversal, treating this price shape as "222" Buy, or even potential double bottom, but I wouldn't hurry up with this conclusion.
In general, I would wait for more bullish signs. If this is upside reversal indeed - market very soon will make itself evident. With major upside target around 37-38K area, we should have a lot of chances to step in, once upside action starts.
Besides, we see few tricky moments here. First is, price performance on daily chart, that re-tests achieved 26K target. Second, here, we have "222" Buy, but CD leg shows acceleration that is not good sign for the bulls.
All in all, at least for me, bullish context is not sufficient, and I'm afraid that "222" easily will shift to butterfly with 25.3K target that we've considered last time. You could not sell, but be aware of taking long position too early.
EURAUD I Broke 6350 resistance and forming head and shoulderWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Daily ETH 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, also on a four-hour interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downtrend line from which the black has gone sideways, while locally, with the help of blue lines, we can mark the sideways trend triangle in which we are approaching the exit direction.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the trend based fib extension tool to mark the supports, and as you can see, we have the first support at $1782, the second support at $1741, the third at $1708, and then we can mark the fourth support at $1675.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at the price of $ 1823, from which the price has already rebounded several times, the next resistance is at the price of $ 1848, then the third resistance at the price of $ 1873 and the fourth at the price of $ 1909.
The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy for a new move. The MACD indicator indicates a transition to a local uptrend. On the other hand, on the RSI we see that a slight price movement causes a large movement on the indicator, which in the long run may affect the price correction.
Even weaker than we thoughtMorning folks,
Last time we've discussed possible upside reaction on daily target and support area, and suggested, that BTC could try to take it in a shape of upside AB-CD pattern. Since we were not considering and are not considering right now any long positions due to our fundamental view on BTC. And upside bounce should be nice chance to sell at good price.
But now it seems that BTC even weaker than we thought and is not able to show even upside AB-CD action. On daily chart we see signs of bearish dynamic pressure and the grabber suggesting drop to new lows. Overall performance, as you could see hardly looks like bullish reversal. Price action is heavy.
So, we still do not consider any longs and suggest that downside action could take the shape of the butterfly. Nearest (but not last) downside target stands around 25.3K
CHFJPY I Counter short idea Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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28.5K at bestMorning folks,
Once our first major daily target around 25.7-26K has been completed, BTC has started reasonable retracement. By the price shape we can't treat it as upside reversal and suggest that most probable it could become an AB=CD shape up to 28.4K area, at best. Then, we think that downside action could continue.
Our next downside daily target stands around 23.5-24K and we still keep it valid.
We do not consider it, but if you want, you could think about long entry with tight stops, somewhere under 26.5K lows. Still, our major scenario is bearish and we consider upside 28.4-28.5K resistance area mostly for short entry purposes.
USDJPY I Approaching weekly reversal pointWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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EURUSD I Potential bounce upward from demand zoneWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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EURNZD I Potential move downwardWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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PatienceMorning folks,
So, our 1st daily H&S target is completed perfectly, in a way of downside AB-CD, with CD leg shape in a way of butterfly pattern. The question is - should be we buy already?
I would say - no. First is, because daily H&S also has 1.618 ultimate target around 24K that agrees with major daily support area of 23.8-25K. But not this moment is a major reason.
Take a look at overall performance - what bullish you could see in current action? Nothing. We do not have any signs of thrust, we do not have any clear bullish reversal patterns. Overall news and fundamental background hardly could be called as "friendly" for BTC rally.
That's why we suggest to wait a bit and see what will happen. This is just for example, as one of the possible scenarios - if we get this H&S, then we could consider long entry around 27K. If nothing bullish will be formed - we need to prepare for another downside leg. And, to be honest, this is our preferable scenario for now.
Keeping the same scenarioMorning folks,
we do not big changes in our trading plan - everything goes by classic scenario of H&S pattern. Now price stands around the neck. We do not consider any long positions by far. Supposed target of this pattern is 25-26K, which is the vital one for further bullish BTC scenario.
For short entry you could consider near standing resistance levels. Stop is not needed to place too far. Just above 28.5K resistance area should be enough
BTC Trend analysis with Donchian and Macaron Tools / SHORT setupInitial idea: Price seems like it tried to break above 30k twice, and failed, this makes me feel that it needs to grab more buyers from lower prices and come up stronger.
1st chart:
Donchian channel is already broken since 21 Apr at a price of 27983, this sets up the price action wise break needed to go down. Macaron tools are indicators I made to better visualize the trend (Thanks to @Madrid for the heatmap idea.). They are very similar to moving average crosses, but they are not. For the last 4 days it was trying to get full red, and for the last 2, it is. This means both the trend and the price action is already bearish. If you don't want to wait for the 2nd charts setup (basically confirmation), the way to go now is shorting my dear bitcoin.
Entry: Current Price (27700)
Take Profit: 24640 / because that's the latest resistance area
Stop Loss: 30130 / because it's just a bit above the donchian trend
Trailing Stop Loss: Donchian(11, 10) this simply means the highest high of the last 10 bars
2nd chart:
Donchian channel here has a much longer length and thus breaking it is harder, also it has never been broken since the up movement from 19k, highlights the heaviness of it. When it breaks it'll probably be caused by a dump that started before (probably in the 1st setup), thus if it continues to go down we should just ride the wave.
Entry: 26840 / because donchian is at 26919 so if the price continues to go down after hitting that and also breaks 26850, it'll continue (probably, hopefully)
Take Profit: 24640 and (23400/23250) / if you want to be fully safe just close your position at the first tp. If you want to take multiple ones go with the 1st and the 3rd but use trailing stop. You can customize your position however you like.
Stop Loss: 30130 / if it breaks above here the trend will be questionable (it may just hit and come down too, but less probable) so we'll just close the trade
Trailing Stop Loss: Same with the 1st setup, the highest high of the last 10 bars
Thanks to @KivancOzbilgic for the donchian channel indicator.
Since this is my first post here, please give me any feedback you may have. Thanks for reading, happy trading!
PS: I will not be taking the trade because of the CPI announcement tomorrow.
26KMorning folks,
We do not need to make drastic shifts to our trading plan as BTC is going accurate with it. The core is daily H&S pattern with 26K destination point. Next week was some risk around the top of right arm and it was seemed that BTC could break it, but it couldn't, and H&S starts to work.
Now, market is coming to 27K neckline area. We do not consider any long positions. If everything will be OK - H&S major target of 26K should be reached.
In more extended perspective, 25-26K has vital meaning. Downside breakout could open road to 12K and will be negative for bullish context. Conversely, ability to hold above it, will keep chances on 36-38K target intact
EURCAD I It will retest near neckline of double topWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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EURCAD I Previous idea fulfilled and NEXT MOVE!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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"222" SellMorning folks,
Today we need just 1H chart to make an update, because BTC shows humble reaction on Fed statement, at least compares to gold market. Despite minor bounce - the daily H&S is still valid and we could talk about its failure only if BTC returns back into 30-31K range, at least.
For now - the only Fed's fruit here is "222" Sell pattern. If you believe that H&S will fail, you could consider long entry around 28.5-28.6K area. Alternatively, bears could use this "222" for downside continuation. Maybe NFP will bring more clarity tomorrow.
In general, current Fed policy is "loose-loose" for BTC. Higher rates will destroy stock and BTC market, while rate cut with 5+% inflation level promise also nothing good in longer-term perspective, as inflation will raise more, especially on a background of record budget deficit, and I'm not talking about debt ceil saga.
25.5K Part IIMorning folks,
BTC accurately follows to our daily H&S scenario. Now it seems that the top of right arm is in place already. If you're looking for bearish position taking but missed to do this around 29.5K area, discussed last time - here you could watch for 3/8 retracement on 1H chart, somewhere to 28.9-29K area.
The top around 29.5K also is an indicator of H&S validity. Action above it could mean that H&S is failing and BTC is ready for immediate upside continuation. Until it stands valid, we're going with our downside H&S scenario to 25-25.5K target