26KMorning folks,
We do not need to make drastic shifts to our trading plan as BTC is going accurate with it. The core is daily H&S pattern with 26K destination point. Next week was some risk around the top of right arm and it was seemed that BTC could break it, but it couldn't, and H&S starts to work.
Now, market is coming to 27K neckline area. We do not consider any long positions. If everything will be OK - H&S major target of 26K should be reached.
In more extended perspective, 25-26K has vital meaning. Downside breakout could open road to 12K and will be negative for bullish context. Conversely, ability to hold above it, will keep chances on 36-38K target intact
Daily Charts
EURCAD I It will retest near neckline of double topWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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EURCAD I Previous idea fulfilled and NEXT MOVE!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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"222" SellMorning folks,
Today we need just 1H chart to make an update, because BTC shows humble reaction on Fed statement, at least compares to gold market. Despite minor bounce - the daily H&S is still valid and we could talk about its failure only if BTC returns back into 30-31K range, at least.
For now - the only Fed's fruit here is "222" Sell pattern. If you believe that H&S will fail, you could consider long entry around 28.5-28.6K area. Alternatively, bears could use this "222" for downside continuation. Maybe NFP will bring more clarity tomorrow.
In general, current Fed policy is "loose-loose" for BTC. Higher rates will destroy stock and BTC market, while rate cut with 5+% inflation level promise also nothing good in longer-term perspective, as inflation will raise more, especially on a background of record budget deficit, and I'm not talking about debt ceil saga.
25.5K Part IIMorning folks,
BTC accurately follows to our daily H&S scenario. Now it seems that the top of right arm is in place already. If you're looking for bearish position taking but missed to do this around 29.5K area, discussed last time - here you could watch for 3/8 retracement on 1H chart, somewhere to 28.9-29K area.
The top around 29.5K also is an indicator of H&S validity. Action above it could mean that H&S is failing and BTC is ready for immediate upside continuation. Until it stands valid, we're going with our downside H&S scenario to 25-25.5K target
Potential BTC Short Between around 30.3k and 30.8k are some fresh resistance levels that are yet to be hit.
If price comes into this box with the criteria frp, listed I will take a short risking 1%-2% of my entire account.
*1hr money flow (Red/green oscillator
waves) coming down and crossing the 0 line
*1hr momentum creating a divergence (Blue
oscillator waves)
*1hr vwap (Yellow line on oscillator) curving down
to ward the 0 line.
*12min and down momentum divergence
*12min and down moneyflow coming down
Tp 1 - Value area high at 28870
Tp 2 - point of control at 28000
Tp 3 - Value area low at 26900
Leave the rest to ride
25.5KMorning folks,
BTC very accurately follows to our H&S shape. So, the right arm's top that we've discussed on Monday is completed now. For the bears - this is the moment of decision making on entry.
Additionally, H&S is great directional indicator. Its failure (which we think as less probable scenario), suggests immediate upside continuation and 31K level breakout. While its traditional performance should lead BTC back to 25.5K area at least - H&S classic target and strong daily K-support area.
USDCAD I Key resistance broken. Expect pullback and more growth!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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EURJPY I Potential buy from support to target 147.05Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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26.5 - 28.5 - 24.5Morning folks,
BTC accurately follows to our H&S plan. Our intraday target around 26.5-27K which is the neckline, is mostly done. Next step that we're watching is a forming of the right arm around 28-28.5K and then major extension to 24-25K area - strong daily support. Depending on your view you could choose corresponding positions.
Intraday bulls could consider intraday bullish patterns(reverse H&S, butterflies etc) around 26-26.5K area with potential target around 28-28.5K, while bears should wait for this latter level for next short entry chance.
Daily and Weekly Rejection. 200 Billion Calls and market flat.Daily and Weekly Rejection. 200 Billion Calls of worth and market flat.
The US bought 200 billion worth of options is 200 billion of stocks to sell to get the market flat.
Lower highs and weekly and daily rejections on Friday. see the market getting its recession on Monday,
Delta in options across the board was at yearly highs. DAX rallied with EU meeting. But didn't make a new high.
Created a lower high and volume didn't make a new high on Friday. Many facts to see the market as topped out.
Options data with market analysis. See the market crash by about 50-70%. Because of the deflation cycle coming, we need.
The dollar needs to come back up and inflation needs to hit negative numbers to have expansion room for the future.
Best Regards
Robin,
GBPAUD I Potential buy from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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27K is next oneMorning folks,
So, BTC starts nice with our minor 1H H&S pattern, and its minimum target, OP around 28.3K area is done. CD leg shows acceleration, so after some minor bounce we expect continuation to the next ~27K area. This action is a part of our larger H&S scenario on daily chart and 26.5-27K actually is a neckline.
USOIL stable after the gap 🦐After the test of the lower support at the 66 level and the recent decision of several top producers led by Saudi Arabia to output cuts the price is back at the top of the previous range between 72-82.
I can see the gap which has to be filled sooner or later but in this moment the target might be the upper level where a lot of liquidity stays.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for a potential break of the resistance area and in that case i will move on the 4h chart to check for a nice entry according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
If the price will move to the gap i will monitor the supports on the 4h time frame to identify a possible lower entry according to the MTB Strategy.
26.5 is vital support for the bullsMorning folks,
Once our 31K OP target has been hit - BTC starts to show tactical signs of weakness. It is vital for BTC to stay above 25.5-26.5K support area to keep major upside trend with 36-38K destination point. Downside breakout of 26K support level could significantly increase chances on downside acceleration.
In very short-term, we consider first step of downside retracement to 28.3K support area, in a way of puny H&S on 1H chart. Once it will be completed - our focus will turn to next one, large 4H H&S pattern and 26K support area, which also should become a neckline for big pattern.
Last step until the way to 35-38KMorning folks,
So, this part of our plan is done - market hits 29.4-30K area. Let's say "thank you", JPow. Does it mean that price is already on the way to next 35.5-38K target/resistance area? I wouldn't say it yet. Just because around 30.5-31K we have resistance. And before take position for further upward action, we have to be sure that this is real upside breakout.
Thus, we need to see that market breaks 31K and holds above it, not drop back below 28K. This should become a confirmation that upside breakout is real. Conversely if we will see spike to 31K and fast reversal - wait and do not buy.