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S&P500 Weekly Ichimoku Analysis for Week 2 2023General outlook for SP:SPX The overall market trend is still downwards and I expect that we will see more in Q1 downward pressure due to adjustment of earnings and the higher and higher possibility of, at least, a mild recession in the US and EU. The FED will tighten the monetary policy further with one or two rate hikes of 25 bps in Q1. Furthermore, QT is running with 90 Trillion per month. This week all FED communication was clearly hawkish with statements that the terminal rate will be up to 5,4% in 2023 and no rate cuts in 2023. I will still act according to "never fight the FED". Therefore, all bullish signs are short-lived and any chance to sell into a rally should be still used. Since mid-December the S&P in a range between 3.900 USD and 3.770 USD. As described above the overall market trend should still be bearish, at least in Q1 and Q2. There the likelihood of a bullish break out over 3.900 USD is quite low in my opinion. In case there is a short-term bullish outbreak, this will be pushed back by the 1-year downward resistance line with sits at around 4.000 USD at the moment. Before this trendline is not broken and switched into support, I will be very cautious on the long side. For next week I expect some volatility due to the inflation number. Especially as the inflation number in France and Germany came out lower than expected this week. Ichimoku analysis My weekly analysis is based on the 1D chart. Lagging Span is below the Price Base line is above Conversion Line Price is within the cloud -> Price ranging Currently Conversion Line, Base Line, and Kumo are flat / ranging 4H Resistance / Support Zone Resistance between 3885 USD and 3900 USD Support between 3785 USD and 3770 USD Long Idea - Price Breaks above cloud resistance at 3960 USD and turns the 1-year downward resistance line into support. In my view, this will not happen in the next 3-4 months. Short Idea - Price Breaks below the cloud and below 4H resistance at 3770 USD I will look for a retest of the support zone. If there is a retest this should be a good short opportunity. Take Profit Target: 3565 USD (around 2022 yearly low) Stop Loss: Above Base line
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by chukymuc
1
The core still stands the sameMorning folks, Just minor update here, as picture mostly stands the same as on Monday. Last time we said that if BTC will be lucky enough and could show upside AB-CD pattern - it might be good combination for short entry. Upside AB-CD target perfectly agrees with strong 17040-17080 resistance area and also we get "222" Sell in this case. BTC despite all the weakness slowly but stubbornly is creeping higher. So, if ADP or NFP will not intrude into process, we intend to consider short entry around 17-17.10K area. We do not consider any longs by far
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
EURCAD I Potential buy from weekly structure Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURCAD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
19
17040-17080 as a best caseMorning everybody, So, we could see across the board that markets are going against the dollar, at least in short-term. While Dollar Index shows signs of weakness. We do not suggest that this lasts for too long, but still, this action is not over yet, and our analysis as of EUR as of Gold market also suggests further upside continuation. Meantime, BTC has no participation with this move. It shows how weak and heavy it is. That's why we're skeptic a bit concerning its performance and suggest that forming of upside AB-CD pattern with the target that agrees with 17040-17080 Confluence resistance area will be the best case. Besides, if it happens, we get "222" Sell around strong support and could consider it for short entry. Our mid/long term view on BTC remains bearish. On 4th of January we get FOMC minutes publication that could bring some disclosure as J.Powell was relatively hawkish on his recent speech.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC 17050-17080 Morning everybody and Merry Christmas, So, holidays intrude a bit to BTC performance as well, delaying pattern's appearing that we've discussed last time. When activity returns, BTC could keep going to 17.35-17.4K target and area of the right arm's top of our 4H H&S pattern. But, at the same time, we think that bulls have to worry about 17045-17080 area, which is a strong resistance of Fib levels K-area and COP (0.618 extension) target. Potentially BTC could turn down earlier. Besides, if it happens, we will get daily bearish grabber pattern that suggests even deeper action.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving below the local downtrend line. Let's start with setting the support line and as you can see the first support that currently defended the price is $16585 at 0.718 FIB, if the support is broken then the next support is $16457 and $16080. Now let's go from the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $16752, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $16871, $16964 and $17058. Looking at the CHOP indicator, we can see that in the 4-hour interval, energy was used for a sudden correction, but some was left for the next move. The MACD indicates the entry into a local downtrend, while the RSI rebounded, but there is room for a deeper correction.
by cryptodailyuk
17.40-17.5KMorning folks, Everything were going with our trading plan, but unexpected collapse on Japanese Bonds market and BoJ rate action to 0.5% has changed normal price behavior. Still, we treat it as temporal intruding, and soon effect of this event should fade. Thus, current action we treat as a chance to Sell at better price. Particularly speaking, 17.40-17.50K area seems attractive, if BTC completes upside AB-CD and we get "222" Sell" pattern. By the way, this also will form the top of H&S right arm, that we've discussed last time. Despite our view, we do not intend to take the long position, although it is not forbidden. Our primary target is to get good short entry point.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on the four hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving below the uptrend line. As we can see the previous support at $16583 is still price support, the next support is at $16098 and $15471 at the previous low. Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $17066, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $17325 and $17571 at 0.61Fib. Looking at the CHOP indicator, we can see that in the four-hour interval, most of the energy has been used, the MACD indicates a local uptrend, while the RSI we could see that despite the price went lower in the first correction, the RSI did not see a deeper low, which is often a sign of a trend change.
by cryptodailyuk
4
ATOMEUR 'D' - Sat on Support? Or a Drop Incoming?Crypto Tipster v2 sent us a Sell signal on Atom / Eur on the daily chart, and it has proved itself to be quite a reliable indicator with Atom recently! Should we follow this signal? The current price does seem to be sat on nice little ledge of support, but if this was to break down the next support isn't until after a near 30% drop - that could prove to be quite a trade! Keep your stops tight on this one if you do decide to trade, and aim for at least a 20% drop.
Short
by theCrypster
17.15-17.25K for short entryMorning folks, So, downside action was even sharper than we thought, BTC collapsed without any H&S shape. Now it stands at local support area. We do not consider any long positions by far. For short entry 17.15-17.25 K-resistance area (and former trend line) looks interesting. Alternatively, if, still, it will be the H&S of a bit larger scale, BTC could climb to 17.40-17.45K to form the right arm, but it doesn't break the context. So, whatever scenario you will choose and if you want to sell - it would be better to place initial stop above 17.5K for some case, or even slightly higher...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price has fallen below the local uptrend line. Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first strong support is at $17199, if the support is broken then the next support is $17044 and $16924. Now let's go from the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $17702, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $17919, $18097 and $18276. Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that in the 4-hour interval, the energy begins to gain strength, the MACD indicator confirms the local downtrend, while the RSI shows a rebound, but we are still around the middle of the range, which may indicate a continuation of the correction.
by cryptodailyuk
17.9K seems interesting for short entryGood morning, So, the bullish "Wild card" discussed last time has worked and BTC has completed 17.8-18.2K targets that we've discussed. Does it change something? No. Overall context remains bearish. Recent Fed statement, although has matched to expectations but still was slightly hawkish as just two members voted for the terminal rate below 5%. Market now stands at solid resistance area and we do not see any attractive decisions for bulls by far. Bears have two options, either try to go with this minor H&S pattern on 1H chart, and take position around Fib levels with stop above the high. Or - watch for the same H&S pattern but of larger scale on 4H chart. If ECB fails to provide hawkish statement today EUR turns down sharp and major downside action could start across the board, like on Gold market right now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving above the local downtrend line. Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $16960, if the support is broken then the next support is $16900, $16852 and $16804. Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $17032, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $17130, $17210 and $17292. Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that in the 4-hour interval some of the energy has been used, the MACD indicates that we are moving in a downtrend.
by cryptodailyuk
Bullish wild card Morning folks, Well, technical picture, no doubts, stands bearish. We've warned you about it within recent few weeks, and since the beginning of 2022 in a scale of monthly and weekly time frames. Now, if we wouldn't have CPI and Fed I would call for short entry. But, due coming important data we need to wait and get more confirmation. At the same time, CPI and Fed could provide the "wild card" if CPI will be weak and Fed will be dovish. In this case all markets across the board could show short-term action, and it could be more or less strong. That's why we show you all scenarios that potentially you could follow, depending on your view. First is a bullish "wild card' Scenario. You could consider this butterfly with placing stop just under its lows. Target might be either 17.7, or even XOP target around 18.2K. Features of this trade are - low chances on success, but low potential loss and huge reward if "wild card" will be given. Second is bears - you need to keep an eye on 16.5-16.6K support and its downside break. Once it will happen, it is possible to consider short entry. Theoretically you could use Stop "Sell" entry order somewhere under 16.5K. Finally, you could combine both scenarios.... if you brave enough ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8
Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price has been moving in an uptrend channel for almost twenty days, which we have marked with blue lines. It is now worth checking what supports we should consider in the coming hours or days and as you can see the first support is $17070, if the support is broken then the next support is $16977, $16885 and $16750. Now let's go from the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance that the price has to overcome and positively test is $17221, if you manage to break it the next resistance will be $17323, $17412 and $17491. Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that in the 4-hour interval, the energy begins to gain strength, the MACD indicator indicates that we have entered a local downtrend, while the RSI shows that we are quite high and we should consider hedging the position in case of a correction.
by cryptodailyuk
2