Time for Change?The past two weeks have been another two weeks of low volatility, making October the month with the lowest volatility for some time. However, in the past few days, the upper and lower Bollinger Bands have begun to diverge, implying volatility is starting to pick up. Many active traders will be happy to see a change from the sideways market we have experienced in recent weeks.
From a technical point of view, the bulls will rejoice at the fact that we finally flipped the $20,500 resistance to support and have since retested that level. Bulls will now have their eyes on the $22,800 level which they will be hoping to flip in order to light the way towards $24,000. However, a fall below the $20,500 level would see a return to the range we previously escaped from. The bears will be hoping to see a break below the $18,200 support level which would likely result in new yearly lows. Another important indicator to keep an eye on is the MACD. At present, there is a very small spread between the MACD line and the signal line. If the MACD crosses below the signal line, this would provide support to the idea that we are heading back towards the $18,000-$20,500 range.
In other news, the resignation of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss seems to have restored some confidence in the markets. Consequently, the Pound has gained some serious ground back against the dollar. It now trades at around $1.16, the highest level since the disastrous ‘mini-budget’ was announced. With the newly elected Prime Minister Rishi Sunak having a background in banking and finance, bulls will be hoping he has a firm grasp on the importance of stabilising inflation and the economy. If his government can do this, we could be poised for a more bullish market outlook in the coming months.
Additionally, UK regulators have been urged to ease collateral requirements to avoid a pension-fund blow-up. Market participants will be keeping a close eye on this as the collapse of a large UK pension fund would send shock waves throughout the entire financial system and would signify a bleak short-term outlook for the economy.
Either way, it’s likely that in the coming weeks and months, the outcome of key macro events will dictate the direction of the market. Whether it's a return to up-only or more chaos, things are really starting to heat up.
Daily Charts
Intervention injectionMorning folks,
All markets in general and BTC in particular have got a liquidity injections due massive interventions by PBoC, BoJ and SNB in recent 2-3 sessions. This factor intrudes technical picture and has turned it bullish. Still, we think that it is not reliable and could easy go as easy it has come.
Thus, we treat current action as technical pullback. Here we have to watch for two moments. First is nearest upside target is 21.5-21.6K that could be reached. Second - market now stands at resistance. If BTC fails to break it, and returns back in consolidation - do not take long position.
USD pairs testing key daily and weekly areas...USD pairs testing key daily and weekly areas... Some of which are shared in my charts above...
We could see some USD buying...
If the areas break, then perhaps a longer-term USD retrace move
I have been short USDJPY since 1.4930, so hoping for a break lower
Large falling wedge on MATIC over Daily time frame - target 1.05
Retrospective for my own learning and improvement - welcome any criticism
Large Falling wedge on daily timeframe - clear break and re-test of wedge - take profit half around 0.92 (now) and half at 1.05. Then look for deviation and resistance from 1.05 or acceptance for next step.
Where flag icon is there is also a small bull pennant on ltf - target in grey - I expect final price to end up somewhere between those two values.
EURCHF Swing short from weekly zoneWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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NZDUSD I Local short from resistance Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Market Exposure after FTDIBD Market School indicator suggest we have a clear sky to start testing waters. Here is what the methodology has flagged after the recent Rally Day.
Annotations
1 = Most recent unbroken Rally Day
2 = Follow Through Day
3 = Confirming Buy signal (named B3)
4 = Additional Follow Through Day + Confirming Buy Signal (B8)
5 = Permitable Market Exposure as per the methodology
My approach!
I do not have an exposure of 90% currently as 5 suggests. This is only guidence. I am more conservative and rather have taken a few tiny pilot positions. I want to see that the action is confirming. We are reaching the 21EMA on SP500 and hence I expect some stalling here. We also have an important earnings in the recent days, which means that there could be abrupt failure.
GBPJPY Daily TF analysisAs analysed last week. GJ painted a massive double bottom and broke the high structures to the left. I thought that price would pull all the way down for a retest before pushing back up to continue the double bottom pattern. As we know price doesnt move in 1 direction indefinitely, so we always get a pullback. But if momentum is strong enough price doesnt always pull back as hard as we expect, before moving in momentum again.
So as it stands, GJ is in a bullish pattern, with possible intraday sells, if the conditions are right, however, everything points towards a long term buy. When we go to the weekly chart, we are also in a very strong bullish momentum, so trade with caution
NASADAQ 100 ANALYSIS 26-10-2022 DEAR INVESTORS
Depand on our analysis for NASDAQ 100 chart and using many of indecators and also with deeply news analysis we found there a apportunity for long postion if the price break this important resistance (11539) so the down trend will end and change for up trend way , so in this situation the price will move to tech 12100 .
if the price not break 11539 and make double top pattern in this situation the price will move down .
so be carfull dears investor this is a chance to take profit for long postion , this just advice from us
best regard
DOWJONES Daily Projection 25/10/22DOW JONES
DOWJONES entered the range area of 31317 - 31756 with the uptrend getting stronger. The price probably will make a correction to its support today before trying to break resistance 31756 and move up to 32091.
BUY LIMIT 31350 SL 30845 TP 31756
R3 32352
R2 32097
R1 31756
PV 31317
S1 31093
S2 30937
S3 30535
NASDAQ Daily Projection 25/10/22NASDAQ
The ranging NASDAQ finally confirmed its uptrend last night. The price, which is still in the 11368 - 11469 range, seems to be trying to penetrate its range area and move up into the 11469 - 11675 range.
BUY LIMIT 11370 SL 11144 TP 11670
R3 11675
R2 11469
R1 11368
PV 11301
S1 11091
S2 10947
S3 10825
AUDUSD Daily Projection 25/10/22AUDUSD
AUDUSD rose again trying to penetrate its MA100 which is also resistance 0.63828. After correcting to support 0.63137, AUDUSD formed a higher low yesterday and is currently trying to make a higher high to confirm the uptrend.
CUT HALF 0.63280 and SL BEP
R3 0.65490
R2 0.64461
R1 0.63828
PV 0.63137
S1 0.62548
S2 0.62153
S3 0.61685
EURUSD Daily Projection 25/10/22EURUSD
EURUSD seems to be trying to break resistance 0.98930 to reach the range 0.98930 - 0.99241 today. the uptrend is getting stronger with a reversal point at 0.97564. Price correction has been carried out so that the resistance at 0.98930 becomes the determining resistance whether the EURUSD will be ejected and must correct the price first or break it and rise back up to 0.99241.
We are waiting for a break of resistance 0.98930 before entry.
R3 0.99923
R2 0.99649
R1 0.99241
PV 0.98930
S1 0.97871
S2 0.97564
S3 0.96858
GBPUSD Daily Projection 25/10/22GBPUSD
GBPUSD made a correction to close the opening gap last week and continued to rise again. The cable is currently in the range 1.13025 - 1.13502 and most likely will return to the resistance range 1.13502 - 1.13695 today after correcting the break of the resistance.
BUY LIMIT 1.13048 SL 1.12467 TP 1.13663
R3 1.14139
R2 1.13695
R1 1.13502
PV 1.13025
S1 1.12520
S2 1.12016
S3 1.10793
XAUUSD Daily Projection 25/10/22XAUUSD
XAUUSD is still in the range 1646 - 1657 Loco most likely will try to penetrate the MA100 which is also the resistance today to continue rising. If the resistance is not broken, the temporary uptrend is threatened to end and GOLD may fall again following the big trend. XAUUSD is still in a temporary uptrend with the reversal point at support 1640.
SL PLUS 1649
R3 1678.280
R2 1668.290
R1 1659.600
PV 1646.100
S1 1640.170
S2 1628.440
S3 1616.870
IndecisionMorning folks,
Market obviously stands indecision. Fundamental background remains bad but technical liquidity support from the Fed and pre-election rally distorts the picture. This lets BTC stands on the surface but at the same time it has not inner power to accelerate higher.
Currently, we do not see any good trading setups, but on longer term charts we keep our bearish view and suggest that downside breakout of daily consolidation in just a question of time. Here, on 1H chart we have triangle consolidation with potential fake upward breakout. The Friday's rally is mostly erased, so, let's keep watching. For intraday trading you could try to catch "222" patterns inside the consolidation on 4H chart. Now we do not have any. Still we think that bears have more chances to succeed...
USDX Hawkish rally starts now?Based on the latest analysis, we can clearly see the trading range of the asset and the support thanks to the Fibonacci and Ichimoku cloud, that's why I believe this will be the beginning of a very strong hawkish rally, even a breakout of the resistance of the current trading range. GOLD will be affected as well, expect an analysis shortly...
We'll seeMorning folks,
So, last setup is started nice - price turns down precisely from 5/8 resistance, keeping chances for potential downside butterfly. Although action looks slow and choppy, fundamental background still stands in favor of downside action. BTC has not taken any part in recent stock market rally, rising US interest yields keep market under pressure. So, let's see... If you have taken short position - now it is possible to move stops to breakeven.
Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's take a look at the BTC to USDT chart over the four hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving below the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the designation of the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is nineteen thousand one hundred and six dollars, if the support is broken, the next support is eighteen thousand nine hundred twenty five dollars and eighteen thousand two hundred thirty four dollars.
Now let's move to the line of resistance, as you can see, the first resistance is nineteen thousand two hundred and thirty four dollars, if you can break it, the next resistance will be nineteen thousand three hundred forty five dollars, nineteen thousand four hundred eighty three dollars and nineteen thousand seven hundred twenty seven dollars.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we can see that in the four-hour interval we have a lot of energy, and the MACD indicator shows a local downward trend.
GBPCAD Short from Resistance to 1.538 Zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's take a look at the BTC to USDT chart over the 4 hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving in the sideways trend channel.
Let's start with the designation of the support, and as you can see, we first have a support zone from nineteen thousand four hundred and forty dollars to nineteen thousand two hundred ninety four dollars, and then we have a second zone from nineteen thousand one hundred eighty four to nineteen thousand fifty five dollars.
Now let's move on to the resistance, and as you can see, the first resistance is from nineteen thousand six hundred and seventy-eight dollars to nineteen thousand eight hundred and ninety-eight dollars, and then we have resistance lines at twenty thousand one hundred and twenty dollars.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we can see that in the 4-hour interval most of the energy has been used and the MACD indicator shows a local upward trend.