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22-22.4K is potential reversal areaMorning folks, As Fed has chosen money printing strategy we postone scenario with downside collapse to 9-12K area for 6-9 months. Now, additional liquidity flow should stabilize as stocks as BTC market, and even let him to rise a bit. In short-term we consider the same 21.95-22.25K support area on 4H chart as then one, where BTC potentially could turn up again and keep moving to our 25.5-26.2K target. But the shape of reversal might be different, although it has minor value to the overall scenario. Personally, I like this one - if price finally completes our XOP target here and finalizes it by butterfly. But it is no problem to buy right now and not to wait for butterfly, if you able to place stop below 21.9K area. We do not consider taking short positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
AUDUSD looking up 🦐AUDUSD on the 4h chart after a downtrend that started from the 0.7600 level reached the weekly support at the 0.67500 area and bounced over it. The market after a couple of attempts to break the support area started a retracement to the upside and broke the 0.68500 zone. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait fro a clear break of the 0.7000 resistance and in that case i will look for a nice long entry according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Long
by InkyGrip
Fundamental background has changedMorning everybody, Under negative GDP numbers and Fed trash talks, there are few who signed a shift in fundamental background. US government and Fed are defeated by inflation and turn back to QE(as well as ECB). Fed fails to keep QT pace, buying less bonds that it has promised. In fact, with spending money from US Treasury deposit - there was no tightening but easing for $250 Bln since the start of the year. Now, new J. Biden programmes on semiconductors and climate should pump additional $1Trln. All of them sooner rather than later go to the markets. As a result, in nearest 6-8 months we should see the visuality of prosperity when stocks and BTC will stop falling and US yields will stop rising. But this is temporal relief. Inflation remains and will keep going higher, to 20%. Collapse is postponed but it is not cancelled, and will happen anyway. Still, in short-term, BTC easily could re-test 28-32K area within few months. We keep our long-term 9K and 12K targets, but its reaching aso postpones. Now we do not consider taking new strategic bearish positions. In short-term it seems that 22-22.3K area and 20.3K area are interesting to consider long entry, with invalidation point below 20K. We endure daily upside channel with next upside target around 25.5K and 26-26.2K major daily resistasnce.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
GDP will help?Morning folks, So, BTC keep showing upward pullback and recent dovish Fed decision has let it to start upward action from predefined level: As we expect negative GDP numbers, in a moment it should weak the US Dollar, which in turn, should be supportive to BTC and could let it to reach next 25.5-26K resistance area. For position taking you could use most recent swing with invalidation point at 20.7K lows. But this is only if you like data release games. Otherwise, just wait for the numbers.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
At the eve of collapseMorning folks, So, miracle has not happened and BTC stucked around 23K area - first major daily resistance area. On intraday charts we do not have any bearish patterns yet and could even say that bulls have theoretical chances on upside action to 25.5-26.2K next resistance area, but... we do not believe that this will happen... and here is why. With coming big bulk of fundamental data - almost all of them should be negative to stocks and BTC. First is, Google and Microsoft reports on 27th of July supposedly will be worse than expected. 1% rate hike from the Fed also hardly bring optimism to the markets, finally, we expect negative IIQ GDP numbers on Thu, and official US step in recession stage. That's why we stay aside this week from any purchasing of BTC. Maybe we will be wrong, but we prefer to get worse entry price but with clear background, rather than gambling on big statistics. Technically, we suggest that 20K area is an edge. Downside breakout suggests bearish reversal and downside trend continuation. If you believe that BTC will go up and have different view on coming data - then you could keep an eye on two support areas where BTC stands. First one is 3/8 major support. Next one is 20.15K area, another Agreement with XOP. If BTC is really bullish and tending to 26K area - then it has to stay above these levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for bearish patternsMorning folks, As BTC stands relatively free until major events on next week, it shows tactical upside pullback where we've set two targets. First one around 23K is completed already and next one is around 25.5K. Although we think that chances that BTC will reach it are low. This week it is vitally important where market will close, because it makes direct impact on weekly chart and we could get two bearish patterns. (Watch today's BTC video on FPA site). Here the logic is simple. If you have long-position - you could keep it, just do not forget to manage stops higher. Next target is double XOP around previous lows of 25.5. There we also have daily 5/8 resistance area and daily overbought. Bears could watch for reversal patterns as upside bounce could stop at any moment. Once it will happen - you could try to go short. For example, now you could watch for 1H H&S pattern:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Solana Daily Breakout- Let's finally get some hopium, shall we?BINANCE:SOLUSDT BYBIT:SOLUSDT Solana has broken out, it was imminent as we have been technically overextended to the downside for the previous 9 days (referring to Solana). Now, what is next? Probably not this chart, but if we are simply relaying history into its traditional pattern, we have a classic run down (green arrow) inclined to a 20% move to the upside before double bottom's in on a bullish divergence (green marker+rsi). We have seen this chart pattern play out before last summer, during the china crush. The play out of this pattern led to a parabolic move for the altcoin, Rounding out a 700%+ trip to the upside before reaching what we now know of as the all-time high. Very similarly, we have seen this pattern replay itself, with a breakout confirmed on yesterday's big move on the back end of extremely high short interest meeting with the announcement of the EIP-1559 merger. If we imply the same % difference from the low of the double bottom to the trend high. It coincidentally (maybe maybe not) lines up with the exact dollar value as the .382 Fibonacci retracement level, beginning from the all-time high to the trend bottom of the initial dump-off, as made visible on the chart. Now I posted in the title that this is simply a case of hopium, and with a high time frame like the daily it will take a good amount of time to see the chart play out, and likely some shaking off in between then. There is no flip side case (bearish) with the macro picture and other underlying risks you would be taking for this trade, but these are the statistics nonetheless. Drop a follow for more chart analysis!
Long
by CheatCode1
4
Pump it back!Morning folks! I suppose you're very inspiring with recent BTC performance, thus, we did also suggest last time upside action. But to be honest - it is nothing to be happy about. Those who read our Fundamental reports on FPA site know what I'm talking about. The reason of the rally on stock market and BTC is Fed liquidity pump in recent two weeks. Yes, we already have explained recently this phenomenon, but in last two weeks there were big changes there, and we have to mention it here to warn you. This is artificial rally, guys. Banks need to sell their huge positions in stocks and BTC. They use Fed liquidity to initiate reversal. Once public is involved - they start selling their positions to them. In general, since April 12, Fed has taken off 75 Bln. liquidity from the market. It seems, what's the problem? But the problem with US Treasury cash deposit - it has decreased for 300 Bln + within the same time. It means that net injection was more than for 200 Bln within the same period. If you take a look on changes in recent two weeks - net injection was around $50 Bln. That's why stock and BTC markets are rising. It is no problem to trade it long on intraday charts. We're mostly speaking on long term investing - we stay aside for awhile from long position taking. As we have the whole week until Fed meeting, BTC market should get some freedom, so we do not exclude reaching of 23K nearest target and maybe 25-26K as well. Although we have big doubts on a latter one... Supposedly as 23K as 25-26K should become an areas potentially interesting for short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten