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Common tendencyMorning folks, So, BTC has hit our first 0.618 upside extension and shows 3/8 pullback, which is normal. Downside action looks a bit strong and BTC now shows no signs of upside reversal. But we see two factors that could let BTC to keep going with the upside AB=CD pattern. First is cross-market analysis. On 10year yield we have clear H&S pattern, on FX, Gold market price action shows signs of recovery and possible more extended upside action. Thus, we hope that maybe BTC follows with the common tendency, at least at some degree. Second is, strong K-support area. Thus, in current circumstances, despite that our long term view is bearish, right now we do not consider new shorts positions by far. For long entry you have two options - either to take position right now, relying on strong support and other markets performance. Alternatively wait for first upside reaction before position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
EURJPY for a new high? 🦐EURJPY on the daily chart is looking for a new all time high. The market after the retracement into a descending channel tested the 0.5 Fibonacci level and is now moving to the daily resistance. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the break of the area and in that case i will move on the 4h timeframe to set a nice kong order according to the Plancton's Academy rules. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
3
EURGBP a long opportunity 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart is trading at the weekly resistance area. The price after the test of the 0.618 level moved to the 0.5 area and is now trading below the 0.382 Fibonacci level. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the break above the structure and in that case, i will look for a possible long entry according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
30
EURUSD can retrace to the upside? 🦐EURUSD after the long downtrend move reached and attempt to break the monthly support at the 1.04 level. The price tested a few times the structure and a retracement move to the upside is possible. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the break above the daily resistance and in that case, i will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
8
USDCHF a short opportunity 🦐USDCHF on the 4h chart is trading at the recent highs. The price is in a bull trend and creates a possible short opportunity below a monthly resistance. After the head and shoulders neckline break the price in fact is approaching a minor support area. How can I approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and check for a possible break below the support area . In that case, i will look for the Plancton's strategy to be satisfied and set a nice short order --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4
Fed liquidity supports marketsMorning folks, BTC now follows to common tendency that we see on all markets - FX, stocks, bonds etc. But this is not the change of the trend, this is not the breakthrough in the mind of investors, guys. This is just liquidity pumping from the Fed. Although QT programme should start in June, in recent two months Fed "returned" back ~ $200 Bln, and this is the major reason of current upside performance. So, this pullback is temporal, the party will be over soon and we do not change our long term bearish view, when BTC could reach 11-12K area. Meantime, although upside action has not erased yet the butterfly pattern that we've discussed last time, chances for its erasing are significant. This makes us to not consider taking any new shorts by far. By looking at 4H chart, we have two major targets - COP around 31.75K and potentially to major daily area around $34-34.50K. If you would like to take part with this action - you could consider intraday 29.75-29.78 K-area and 29.10 major 5/8 Fib support for position taking. In a longer term, current upside action could change the shape of the price a bit tactically, but it doesn't change the fundamental background, so reversal down will happen just with other patterns, say daily "222" Sell from 34K area. Just as example... but it will happen anyway... ;) Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
EURJPY can make a lower low? 🦐EURJPY on the 4h chart after the recent drop has tested the 0.786 Fibonacci level. The price is now testing the 0.5 area after the attempt to break the weekly support area in the red color. How can we approach this scenario? We will wait for the EU market open and look for a possible break below the area. In that case, I will set a nice short order according to the Plancton's academy rules for our established risk-reward ratio --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
2
GBPCHF a short opportunity 🦐GBPCHF on the daily chart is moving inside a daily descending channel . The price after the test of the 1.25500 area dropped exactly at the monthly support and from there retraced perfectly at the 1.24500 level. How can we approach this scenario? Currently, the market is testing once again the support area and if the pair will break below we will move on the 4h chart to search for an entry point according to the Plancton's strategy rules. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
2
23 then 20K?Morning folks, So, bearish signs are still here. On the daily chart the same pennant that we've discussed last time. On 4H chart market was not even to complete "222" Sell pattern that we've discussed last time. I wouldn't even talk about butterfly and its target around 32 K level. As in the long-term we expect 2500 level on S&P 500 index, our view on BTC stands bearish as well. We do not consider taking any long positions by far. In short-term, chances for downside butterfly increases. The next pattern's target stands around 23K, next one 21.5K and very close to ~20K area of 200-day MA... Be aware of GDP release today as well. Chances for negative surprise are high.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
USDCAD a turn at the 0.5 Fibonacci 🦐USDCAD on the 4h chart after the test of the 1.30500 level has retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci area and turn for a test of the 0.382. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a potential break of the daily resistance and in that case i ll look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's academy rules --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Long
by InkyGrip
4
GBPCAD on a double bottom retracement 🦐GBPCAD on the 4h chart reached as expected the daily support at the 1.58 area. The price tested the area 3 times creating double / triple bottom over the support and can now look for some short time retracement to upside even though the main trend remains bearish on the weekly timeframe. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the London market open and check for a possible move to the upside. If the price will then break above the descending trendline i will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's Academy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
3
GBPUSD a move to the 1.28? 🦐GBPUSD on the daily chart is trading at the recent lows and tested the monthly support at the 1.21600. The price after the last bearish impulse might carry on with the retracement to the upside and break the resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci level How can i approach this scenario? The market tested the 1.2500 area and is now trading below a minor resistance. I will look for a break of the structure and a possible test of the upper 0.618 Fibonacci level. ------ Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
22
Daily US Stocks Volatility Forecast 23 May 22 APPL, TSLA, MSFTApple 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.63% movement. So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 138 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 138 + 3.6 -> aprox 141.6 BOT 138 - 3.6 -> aprox 134.4 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.94% With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 138 + 5.4 -> aprox 143.4 BOT 138 - 5.4 -> aprox 132.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Microsoft 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.63% movement. So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 253 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 253 + 6.6 -> aprox 259,6 BOT 253 - 6.6 -> aprox 246,4 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.75% With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 92% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 253 + 9.5 -> aprox 262,5 BOT 253 - 9.5 -> aprox 243,5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TSLA 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 5.44% movement. So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 665 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 665 + 36 -> aprox 701 BOT 665 - 36 -> aprox 629 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 5.44% With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 665 + 55 -> aprox 720 BOT 665 - 55 -> aprox 610 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Google 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.7% movement. So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 2180 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 2180 + 60 -> aprox 2240 BOT 2180 - 60 -> aprox 2120 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.6% With this we can achieve over the last 4000+daily candles, a 90% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 2180 + 80 -> aprox 2260 BOT 2180 - 80 -> aprox 2100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by exlux
2
Daily US Index Volatility Forecast 23 May 22 SPY,SPX, QQQ, NDXES/SPX/SPY 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 1.86% movement. So with a more than 71% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 3910open candle value, is going to be: TOP 3910 + 73 -> aprox 3983 BOT 3910 - 73 -> aprox 3837 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 2.8% With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 88% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 3910 + 110 -> aprox 4020 BOT 3910 - 110 -> aprox 3800 For SPY, you can take the the IV of either 1.86% or 2.8% and apply that calculation with the open candle once markets starts ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ/NDX/QQQ 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.48% movement. So with a more than 71% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 11866 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 11866 + 295 -> aprox 12160 BOT 11866 - 295 -> aprox 11570 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.95% With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 88% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 11866 + 470 -> aprox 12334 BOT 11866 - 470 -> aprox 11400 For QQQ you can take either the IV 2.48% or 3.95% and apply that to the opening price of the candle once markets starts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Daily Crypto Volatility Forecast 23 May 22 BTC, ETH, XRP, BNBBTC USD 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 4.11% movement. So with a more than 75% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 30200 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 30200 + 1250 -> aprox 31500 BOT 30200 - 1250 -> aprox 29000 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 6.84% With this we can achieve over the last 4000+ daily candles, a 88% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 30200 + 2100 -> aprox 32300 BOT 30200 - 2100 -> aprox 28200 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ETH USD 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 5.04% movement. So with a more than 75% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 2040 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 2040 + 100 -> aprox 2140 BOT 2040 - 100 -> aprox 1940 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 8.64% With this we can achieve over the last 2000+ daily candles, a 87% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 2040 + 180-> aprox 2215 BOT 2040 - 180 -> aprox 1865 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BNB USD 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 6.09% movement. So with a more than 76% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 320 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 320 + 20 -> aprox 339 BOT 320 - 20 -> aprox 300 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 8.08% With this we can achieve over the last 1600+ daily candles, a 87% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 320 + 26 -> aprox 345 BOT 320 - 26 -> aprox 292 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XRP USD 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 7.46% movement. So with a more than 81% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 0.42 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 0.42 + 0.032 -> aprox 0.453 BOT 0.42 - 0.032 -> aprox 0.39 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 10.92% With this we can achieve over the last 1400+ daily candles, a 89% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 0.42 + 0.046 -> aprox 0.468 BOT 0.42 - 0.046 -> aprox 0.376 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by exlux
pitty reliefMorning folks, Last week we said that we're not inspired with the BTC performance and called to stay aside from taking long position by far. Our long term view has not changed, as we think that BTC should drop more in mid term perspective. In short-term, market could reach 32-32.20K resistance area but we also see risk of downside continuation. First is, on daily chart you easily could recognize the pennant shape, which is potentially bearish continuation pattern. Overall upside action is too slow and choppy, showing no thrusting feature, which makes doubtful idea of upside reversal. In fact, we have two Gartley's potential patterns here. If it becomes the butterfly - market could complete COP target of AB=CD extension around 32-32.2. But, it might be only "222" Sell, with following appearing of daily downside butterfly... Currently whatever pattern you choose for the trading, you have to take the risk of anticipation because price action too choppy and no clear signs of dominance of any pattern. Fundamental picture stands not in favor of upside reversal.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten